Josh Shepardson, Author at Props

Best NRFI Bets Today – Top No Run First Inning Props (Daily Picks)

Josh Shepardson — Sun, 28 Sep 2025 09:43:52 +0000

NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These NRFI bets and props are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.

In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets and plays for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bets and the rationale.

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Best NRFI Bets Today: Sunday, September 28

Our analysts break down the best NRFI bets, props and YRFI picks for today’s slate.

Editor’s Note: Our NRFI picks will return next season!

Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs

Cristopher Sanchez is a beast by any applicable split. According to FanGraphs, he has a 2.57 ERA, 3.07 xERA, 2.82 xFIP, and 3.07 SIERA in 31 starts this season. The lefty also has a 1.85 ERA, 2.72 xERA, 2.31 xFIP, and 2.27 SIERA in his previous five starts.

Sanchez is also a monster at home. He’s spun a 2.14 ERA and 2.64 xFIP in 202.0 innings at home since last season. Unsurprisingly, Sanchez gets off on the right foot. The southpaw has a 2.20 ERA and 2.19 xFIP in the first time through the order this season.

Furthermore, Sanchez has thrown a scoreless first inning in 26 of 31 starts, including 12 of 14 at home and eight straight entering today.

Simeon Woods Richardson isn’t in the same tier. Nevertheless, he’s in good form. He has a 3.00 ERA, 3.20 xERA, 3.68 xFIP, and 3.50 SIERA in his previous four starts. Woods Richardson also has a 3.74 ERA in his first time through the order this year.

Finally, Woods Richardson has thrown a scoreless first inning in 17 of 21 starts this season, including 10 of 12 at home.

What to play: Twins at Phillies 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs

Freddy Peralta enjoys home cooking. He’s registered a 2.89 ERA and 3.82 xFIP in 184 innings at home since last year. He’s also cooking with gas, with a 2.67 ERA, 3.21 xERA, 2.81 xFIP, and 2.58 SIERA in his previous five starts.

Peralta is an early-game whiz, too. Peralta has a 1.49 ERA and 3.40 xFIP in his first time through the order this year. He has tossed a scoreless first inning in 27 of 32 starts in 2025, including 15 of 16 at home.

Brady Singer is the B-side of this matchup. Nonetheless, Singer has a 3.41 ERA, 3.93 xERA, 4.13 xFIP, and 3.89 SIERA in his previous five starts. He hasn’t been flawless to start games.

Still, Singer has thrown a scoreless first inning in 19 of 31 turns this year. Peralta and Singer should open the game by exchanging zeros on the score column in the first inning today.

What to play: Reds at Brewers 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs

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What Is NRFI Betting?

NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.

What Is YRFI Betting?

YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”

This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.

But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.

How Often Does NRFI Hit?

The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.

For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot Park than Coors Field because Coors Field is more homerun-friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.

But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.

Where To Place NRFI Bets

The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.

On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:

Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets

FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
BetMGM Sportsbook (click here for our full review)

NRFI Betting Strategy Tips

There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.

Take Park Factor Into Consideration

Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.

In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.

Consider The Lineup

Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.

Look At Pitching Splits

The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?

According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.

Look At Hitting Stats

You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.

This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.

Featured Image Credit: Imagn

The post Best NRFI Bets Today – Top No Run First Inning Props (Daily Picks) appeared first on Props.

Underdog Best Ball Tips – NFL Strategy Guide

Josh Shepardson — Sun, 15 Jun 2025 04:02:45 +0000

Are you suffering from the post-Super Bowl blues? Have no fear. Underdog has the cure for what ails you.

It’s not too early to jump in best ball contests at Underdog, as they’ve already opened their pre-NFL Draft contests, such as The Little Board ($3 entry fee), The Big Board ($10 entry fee), The Bigger Board ($100 entry fee), and The Biggest Board ($250 entry fee) as well as non-tournament style drafts.

Underdog has offerings for gamers of every budget. Gamers who haven’t played best ball yet shouldn’t feel intimidated, either.

Best Ball Tips – NFL Strategy Guide

Editors Note: In addition to Underdog, make sure to check out FastDraft as a year-long option for NFL DFS drafts and tournaments.

The starting roster requirements at Underdog are one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex (running back, wide receiver, or tight end). In pre-NFL Draft Underdog best ball drafts, teams have 12 bench spots. After the NFL Draft, there are 10 bench spots.

Unlike traditional fantasy leagues, gamers only draft Underdog best ball teams. There are no trades, cuts, or additions. Furthermore, gamers don’t set their lineups. Their optimal starters are picked weekly.

Let’s dig into the strategy with the basics out of the way.

Rookies (Pre-NFL Draft)

Let’s start with a time-sensitive topic. After the NFL Draft, rookies will settle in with reasonable average draft positions (ADP). However, rookies are one of the biggest edges for gamers doing their homework on the incoming prospects. I’ve played in pre-NFL Draft best ball contests for a few seasons, and most rookies will see their ADPs climb closer to the NFL Draft.

Thus, it’s a buying opportunity, namely for players projected to be picked in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. I encourage drafters to dig into big boards from prominent and well-regarded NFL Draft analysts, such as Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, Todd McShay, Mike Renner, Mel Kiper, Field Yates, Nate Tice, Dane Brugler, etc. Drafters should also consult mock draft aggregator sites since there’s a wisdom of the crowds.

It also helps to have an idea of who will test well at the NFL Draft Combine. Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List is a helpful tool for identifying freaky combine testers. Many of the running backs and wideouts have competed in track. Thus, they have timed running data from high school or college.

Understanding who will light up the stopwatches in the 40-yard dash or jump out of the stadium in jumping measurements can give early drafters a leg-up on people reacting to players surging in ADP after testing well.

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Stacking

Stacking is a critical component of maximizing scoring upside in best ball contests. For those unfamiliar with stacking, it’s drafting a quarterback and his skill-position players. Wideouts and tight ends correlate more closely with the quarterback than running backs since nearly all of a wide receiver’s or tight end’s scoring is tied to the quarterback’s passing production. However, a running back will also score as a runner.

Nevertheless, stacking a running back with his quarterback is also a high-upside move. A running back’s receiving production correlates with the quarterback completing passes to him. However, there’s also an indirect correlation. A quarterback leading a high-scoring offense will also create rushing touchdown opportunities for his running back.

The correlation is more straightforward between quarterbacks and his wideouts and tight ends. If a quarterback has a massive season as a passer, he’ll almost certainly have at least one standout performer at wide receiver or tight end and possibly multiple players who outperform their ADP.

Late-round stacking can pay the biggest dividends in best ball. For example, gamers who drafted C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell before the 2023 season were treated to three players vastly over-performing their respective ADPs.

So, taking swings on young quarterbacks and their pass-catchers is a path to hitting on mid-round and late-round values when things click.

Roster Construction Rule of Thumb

There are many paths to winning the biggest prizes in best ball. It’s possible to win the big bucks by drafting a robust running back roster, a zero running back roster, an early-round quarterback, a late-round quarterback, etc. Yet, gamers should still abide by a general rule of thumb when picking their rosters.

Don’t go overboard with allocating too many resources to any positions. Robust running back drafters who pick running backs with their first three picks should draft only five or six running backs and wait until the middle to later rounds to draft their final two or three running backs. Having another top-shelf running back as the RB4 isn’t helpful if the top three running backs meet or exceed their ADP expectations since only three running backs can start any given week. Drafting a fourth running back too early is essentially planning for one of the first three running backs to underperform their expectations.

Draft resources also extend beyond the draft capital (the round) when players are selected. There isn’t a reason to draft six quarterbacks or six tight ends. Only one quarterback can start any given week, and tight ends are usually a lousy option for the flex.

Essentially, there’s a scale gamers should mentally balance when drafting best ball teams – the more early picks used on a position, the fewer players drafted at that position.

Conversely, drafting more players at a position neglected early can help offset quality with quantity. It’s also reasonable to have a balanced roster by mixing early-round running backs and wide receivers and even popping one of the top quarterbacks or tight ends.

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Byes

Byes aren’t a consideration yet because the NFL schedule hasn’t been released. However, once the schedule is released, likely in May, it gives drafters another wrinkle. Teams drafting only two quarterbacks or two tight ends should be cognizant of the byes for their starters.

It’s not fun eating a zero at quarterback because both of your signal-callers have the same bye. The same is true at tight end. However, gamers shouldn’t entirely dismiss drafting two quarterbacks or two tight ends with the same bye because there is a game-theory angle.

Many gamers will avoid drafting quarterbacks with the same bye week, creating the potential for a unique combination during the fantasy playoffs for teams that qualify with two quarterbacks sharing a bye week. Again, the same is true at tight end.

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MLB Futures Props – 2025 Awards Picks & Analysis

Josh Shepardson — Wed, 26 Mar 2025 08:01:54 +0000

The 2025 MLB season is right around the corner, and we have all your MLB futures props covered with our top picks for next season.

Make sure to check back each week for any updates regarding the picks and odds for our top MLB futures props.

MLB Futures Props – 2025 Awards Player Picks & Analysis

Below you’ll find our top MLB futures props for the 2025 season.

American League Rookie of the Year: Kumar Rocker (+1600)

Kumar Rocker was the second pick in the MLB Amateur Draft in 2022. He quickly dispatched the minors, reaching The Show for three starts for the Rangers last year. According to FanGraphs, in three starts spanning 11.2 for Texas, Rocker had a 3.86 ERA, 3.17 xERA, 3.86 xFIP, and 25.5 K%. The righty’s strikeout rate was validated by his excellent 13.3 SwStr% (11.1% was the MLB average in 2024).

The red carpet isn’t rolled out for Rocker to open the year in Texas’ rotation. Nevertheless, there are ample avenues for him to claim a spot in the rotation early enough in the year to build a case for the American League Rookie of the Year Award, and his encouraging cup of coffee last year should help him avoid shrinking in the bright lights.

Where to play: Kumar Rocker AL ROTY | FanDuel Sportsbook

National League Rookie of the Year: Roki Sasaki (+200)

Roki Sasaki is the chalk to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Yet, he’s justifiably priced as an accomplished professional pitcher with electrifying stuff.

According to Baseball Reference, Sasaki spun a 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 32.7 K% in 64 games and 394.2 innings in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). The wunderkind has the front-line stuff to support his dominant numbers. Per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Sasaki’s fastball is at least a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and averaged 96.8 mph in 2024. Sasaki’s splitter is even more devastating, and some scouts grade his slider as another above-average pitch. Sasaki should have no trouble hitting the ground running in Major League Baseball (MLB).

Where to play: Roki Sasaki NL ROTY | FanDuel Sportsbook

American League Cy Young Award: Cole Ragans (+1100)

Cole Ragans’ breakout began after the Royals traded for him in 2023, and he built on his breakout last season. Among qualified pitchers in the American League in 2024, Ragans was seventh in innings pitched (186.1), eighth in ERA (3.14), tied for fourth in xERA (3.31), second in strikeout rate (29.3 K%), and third in swinging-strike percentage (14.4 SwStr%).

The young lefty has the ability to pile up innings and punchouts while sustaining a low ERA. Ragans’ ERA estimators validated his ERA last season. Six of eight Cy Young Award winners since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season have had at least 222 strikeouts. Ragans had 223 in 2024, putting him on the short list of pitchers capable of reaching that strikeout threshold with a sterling ERA.

Where to play: Cole Ragans AL Cy Young | FanDuel Sportsbook

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National League Cy Young Award: Spencer Schwellenbach (+4500)

Spencer Schwellenbach made two career starts in Double-A and zero in Triple-A before the Braves summoned him from the minors. Schwellenbach was more than up to the task, spinning a 3.35 ERA, 3.44 xERA, 3.34 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.6 BB%, 25.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%, 105 Stuff+, 109 Location+, and 113 Pitching+ in 21 starts spanning 123.2 innings.

Schwellenbach didn’t need much seasoning in the upper minors before carving up major leaguers. Moreover, he amassed 168.2 innings between the majors and the minors, positioning him to approach or surpass 200 innings this year. Schwellenbach is a more viable pick to win the National League Cy Young Award than his betting odds suggest, making him a tantalizing bargain pick.

Where to play: Spencer Schwellenbach NL Cy Young | FanDuel Sportsbook

American League MVP Award: Gunnar Henderson (+750)

UPDATE: Henderson will start the season on the IL.

Gunnar Henderson’s odds are a relative bargain compared to Bobby Witt Jr.’s (+270) and Aaron Judge’s (+300). Furthermore, they’re slightly better than they were a few weeks ago when they were +700.

According to FanGraphs, Henderson was worth 8.0 WAR in 2024. He had a blend of power (37 homers), speed (21 stolen bases), run production (118 runs and 92 RBIs), patience (10.8 BB%), and above-average defense. Henderson is the total package and could even unearth a few more bombs if his 9.2-degree launch angle from 2024 ticks upward toward his 11.4-degree launch angle from 2023 while maintaining his elite exit velocity (92.8 mph in 2024) and hard-hit rate (53.9 HardHit%). Henderson also has room to pull a few more balls for bombs.

Henderson is also a darling in projections. Among players in the American League, THE BAT, ZiPS, and Steamer project Henderson will finish second in WAR (6.6), tied for second in WAR (6.1), and tied for second in WAR (7.1). Baltimore’s stud infielder should be priced much closer to Judge and Witt.

Where to play: Gunnar Henderson AL MVP | FanDuel Sportsbook

National League MVP Award: Francisco Lindor (+2200)

Shohei Ohtani (+155) is correctly priced as the uber-chalky favorite to win the National League MVP Award. However, there’s no value in tying up any of your bankroll on him to win the National League MVP at such short odds. Instead, let’s presume his return to the hill from his second Tommy John surgery or his performance at the plate after having offseason shoulder surgery isn’t up to his typical otherworldly level. If that’s the case, there’s value abound for MVP candidates in the National League, and no one offers more value than Francisco Lindor.

Lindor has an elite bat and glove. According to Baseball Savant, Lindor was second in fielding run value among shortstops with at least 750 innings in 2024. Additionally, in 689 plate appearances, the switch-hitting shortstop had 33 homers, 29 stolen bases, 107 runs, 91 RBIs, a .273 batting average, .344 OBP, .500 slugging, and 137 wRC+. Remarkably, Lindor’s batting average, slugging, and wOBA (.363) were less than his .283 xBA, .528 xSLG, and .379 xwOBA.

The Mets signed Juan Soto and re-signed Pete Alonso, adding impressive firepower to the lineup. Thus, the moves will increase Lindor’s run-production potential. Lindor is the total package and comically underpriced in the NL MVP race.

Where to play: Francisco Lindor NL MVP | FanDuel Sportsbook

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NFL Week 17 Christmas Slate Player Props

Josh Shepardson — Wed, 25 Dec 2024 10:45:17 +0000

With two NFL games lined up for Christmas day, we have you covered with our best player props.

Make sure to check out our other Week 17 Christmas content as well for all of our top picks.

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NFL Week 17 Christmas Slate Player Props

Here are our favorite player props for the Week 17 Christmas slate.

MORE PROPS: NFL | NBA | NHL | PGA | CFB

Hollywood Brown More Than 4.5 Receptions (1.38x)

The Chiefs have a pass-heavy offense. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Kansas City has a 63.3% situation-neutral pass rate this year and 67.3% in their past four games. They’re unlikely to throttle down their passing attack after adding a new weapon to the mix last week.

The Chiefs added Marquise Brown to the fold in free agency, but he was on the Injured Reserve (IR) until last week with a shoulder injury. Hollywood Brown didn’t step into a featured role. Understandably, Andy Reid eased him into action. Brown had just a 33.3% route participation rate in his first action of the year.

However, Reid and Patrick Mahomes also wisely fed the speedy veteran wideout opportunities when he was on the field. Brown had a 23.2% air yards share, 19.5% target share, 0.53 targets per route run, eight targets, 25.0% first-read percentage, five receptions, 45 receiving yards, and 3.00 yards per route run.

Brown was an effective target hog. He also wasn’t pigeonholed into a one-dimensional field-stretching role. Instead, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown had a 7.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT), two targets behind the line of scrimmage, three short (zero to nine yards downfield), two medium (10 to 19 yards downfield), and one deep (20-plus yards downfield).

Brown could see an uptick in playing time in his second start, and his varied usage at different levels of the field can help him exceed 4.5 receptions for the second time in as many games played this year. Thus, I’ve ticked up his prop at Underdog to 4.5 receptions for the multiplier.

Where to play: Hollywood Brown More Than 4.5 Receptions | Underdog

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Derrick Henry More Than 90.5 Rushing Yards

People who wanted to see the best from Derrick Henry wanted to see him land with the Ravens. Unsurprisingly, he’s excelled in the same backfield as electrifying dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson. Defenses must pick their poison.

Henry has made the most of a mouthwatering situation. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 64 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, Henry is second in rushing yards per game (109.1), first in yards per carry (5.88), fifth in yards before contact per attempt (2.85), fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.04), eighth in explosive run percentage (6.8%), sixth in stuff percentage (39.1%), tied for 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21), fifth in success rate (59.1%) in zone concepts, and 13th in success rate (55.3%) in man/gap concepts.

Henry is playing at an elite level in his age-30 season. The game script should also be positive for him. The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites against the host Texans. King Henry should be busy if the Ravens have a neutral or positive game script. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Baltimore has a 49% situation-neutral rush rate this year and 55% in their past four games.

Additionally, Henry has been a monster in victories. In Baltimore’s 10 victories this year, Henry has rushed for 67, 68, 92, 106, 132, 140, 151, 162, 169, and 199 yards. He’s averaged 128.6 rushing yards per game with a median of 136.0 in wins this year. I believe the Ravens will live up to the betting expectations and win, which means I also expect King Henry to surpass 90.5 rushing yards.

Where to play: Derrick Henry More Than 90.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog

Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Week 17 content linked below.

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NFL Black Friday Betting Picks – Raiders vs. Chiefs Props

Josh Shepardson — Fri, 29 Nov 2024 13:54:35 +0000

For the second consecutive season, there is a Black Friday NFL game as an encore to yesterday’s Thanksgiving feast, and we have you covered when it comes to the best Chiefs-Raiders props and picks.

Lock in these picks early as the projections are always subject to change, then sit back and enjoy what looks to be an exciting Week 13.

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NFL Black Friday 2024 – Chiefs/Raiders Player Props

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Josh Shepardson unveils his top picks for this Black Friday matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs.

DeAndre Hopkins Lower Than 41.5 Receiving Yards

Despite the lovefest for DeAndre Hopkins when he barbecued Tampa Bay’s lousy secondary for 86 receiving yards on nine targets and eight receptions in Week 9, he hasn’t been a needle-mover for the Chiefs. In his first game in Kansas City’s uniform, Nuk had just three targets, two receptions, and 29 receiving yards against the Raiders.

In four games since cutting through Tampa Bay’s secondary for 86 receiving yards, he’s had 56, 29, and 35 against the Broncos, Bills, and Panthers. Nuk’s underlying data has been especially unimpressive since JuJu Smith-Schuster returned from an injury in Week 11.

According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 11, Hopkins was fifth on the Chiefs in route participation (47.6%) with a 14.3% target share, 17.5% first-read percentage, eight receptions (4.0 per game), 64 receiving yards (32.0 per game), and 1.64 yards per route run. Nuk also has a challenging matchup on Black Friday. According to Pro Football Reference, the Raiders have allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game (131.6) to wideouts this season.

Kansas City’s game script is unlikely to help Nuk’s receiving outlook, either. The Chiefs are 12.0-point favorites. Thus, the Chiefs should be able to lean on their running game in a lopsided victory.

Where to play: DeAndre Hopkins Lower Than 41.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog

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Travis Kelce Higher Than 52.5 Receiving Yards

While the Chiefs might not need to chuck the pigskin late, they’ll probably lean into the pass early. According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 8, the Chiefs have had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate, and the Raiders have faced a 61% situation-neutral pass rate.

When Patrick Mahomes airs it out, Travis Kelce should be the focal point of Kansas City’s passing attack. He’s stepped into the lead passing-game option role since Rashee Rice was injured early in Week 4. In those eight games, Kelce had team highs in route participation (79.9%), target share (25.6%), targets per route run (0.28), first-read percentage (31.0%), receptions (60), and receiving yards per game (62.5). He’s also had a robust 28.5% air-yard share since Week 4.

During that heater, Kelce had 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 90 receiving yards against the Raiders in Week 8. Las Vegas has struggled mightily with tight ends this season. The Raiders have coughed up the sixth-most receiving yards per game (61.5) to tight ends this year, and Kelce’s still one of the best at the position in the NFL.

Even if the Chiefs smash the Raiders, as the betting spread suggests, Kelce will likely have a crucial role in moving the ball and piling up points. Thus, while the Chiefs can take the air out of the ball late, Kelce should clear the low bar of 52.5 receiving yards against his AFC West foe.

Where to play: Travis Kelce Higher Than 52.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog

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The post NFL Black Friday Betting Picks – Raiders vs. Chiefs Props appeared first on Props.

Best 49ers vs. Jets Picks (Monday Night Football)

Josh Shepardson — Mon, 09 Sep 2024 13:27:32 +0000

Looking for the best 49ers vs. Jets Picks for Monday Night Football? You’ve come to the right place.

We’ll break down our best picks from Sleeper Fantasy for this powerhouse Week 1 matchup.

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Best 49ers vs. Jets Picks

Josh Shepardson breaks down his top 49ers vs. Jets Picks for this Monday Night Football matchup.

Breece Hall “More” Than 3.5 Receptions (1.49x)

Breece Hall should be one of the primary beneficiaries of Aaron Rodgers returning after his remarkably short first season on the Jets. Rodgers is a massive upgrade over the horrendous collection of quarterbacks the Jets trotted out in Hall’s first two campaigns in the NFL. Even if Rodgers is just an average quarterback and can’t recapture his MVP form, the Jets should have more success moving the ball.

In addition, Rodgers has historically loved throwing to his running backs. According to Pro Football Reference, Aaron Jones averaged 3.5 receptions per game in 2021 and 3.5 in 2022. Jones’s pass-catching work was more impressive when accounting for his playing time and per-route rates. According to FantasyPros, Jones had a 59% snap share in 2021 and 58% in 2022. Furthermore, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jones was targeted on 21.6% of his routes in 2021 and 22.9% in 2022.

Last year, Hall had a 61% snap share, held back by early-season snap shares of 31%, 34%, 49%, and 52% in his first four contests while he worked his way back from a torn ACL. In the final three weeks of last year, Hall had snap shares of 77%, 71%, and 89%. Hall also has excellent receiving chops, averaging 4.5 receptions per game and earning a target on 26.8% of his routes last season.

Finally, Hall’s matchup is stellar this week. According to The 33rd Team, the 49ers were tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed to running backs, ceding 5.3 per game to them. As a result, Hall is likely to exceed 3.5 receptions on Monday night.

Where to play: Breece Hall More Than 3.5 Receptions | 1.49x at Sleeper Fantasy

Deebo Samuel “Less” Than 4.5 Receptions (1.68x)

No one should wish injuries on players, yet they’re part of the violent game of football and a fringe benefit to betting unders. Even if a player is only sidelined for a brief portion of a game, it could be enough to send them under their player prop. Deebo Samuel also isn’t a stranger to bumps, bruises, and injuries. Regardless, projecting an injury would be absurd and isn’t the primary reason for selecting his under for receptions at Sleeper.

Instead, a challenging matchup is the primary reason for this selection. According to FantasyPoints Data Suite, the Jets had the eighth-highest man-coverage rate (30.7%) last season. Brandon Aiyuk is a markedly better receiver against man coverage than Samuel. Per PFF, Aiyuk earned 24.8% of his targets and had 2.37 Y/RR against man coverage in 2022, followed up by 25.4% and 3.24 Y/RR in 2023. Comparatively, Samuel had only 16.5% of his targets and 1.52 Y/RR against man coverage in 2022 and 17.4% and 1.14 Y/RR in 2023.

Gang Green’s defense was also a nightmare matchup for wideouts last year. According to The 33rd Team, the Jets allowed the fewest receptions (150) to wide receivers last season. Finally, Samuel averaged 4.1 receptions per game last year, falling short of 4.5 receptions 11 times in 18 games. Unders aren’t fun bets, but cashing Sleeper slips is fun. Deebo’s under for 4.5 receptions is an inviting pick.

Where to play: Deebo Samuel Less Than 4.5 Receptions | 1.68x at Sleeper Fantasy

The post Best 49ers vs. Jets Picks (Monday Night Football) appeared first on Props.

3 Best NFL Season-Long Player Picks Heading Into 2024

Josh Shepardson — Tue, 03 Sep 2024 08:00:10 +0000

The summer is underway, and it’s not too early to get action on NFL player picks. The Underdog NFL season pick ‘em lobby is overflowing with options.

There’s no shortage of choices, but narrowing the focus is the best way to cash winners. Furthermore, Conner Allen of 4for4 Football had an excellent thread analyzing picks over the previous three seasons, and unders have won at an eye-catching rate.

Not coincidentally, two of my favorite Underdog pick ‘em choices are “lower” selections. Still, one “higher” pick was alluring.

3 Best NFL Season-Long Player Picks Heading Into 2024

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Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: 3,800.5 Passing Yards – Lower

Aaron Rodgers’s 2023 season was cut short after only a few plays. He is returning this year from a torn Achilles and is on the wrong side of 40. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Rodgers’s 217.4 passing yards per game in 2022 were the fewest in 15 seasons as a starting NFL quarterback. As a result, he passed for only 3,695 yards in 17 games in 2022.

The Packers played slowly when his current offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was his offensive coordinator in Green Bay in 2021. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Packers took the longest to snap the ball (31.8 seconds/play) in neutral game scripts. Rodgers had 257.2 passing yards per game and 4,115 in 16 contests, but a slow pace would put significant pressure on him to be efficient to exceed his prop.

Rodgers also doesn’t have prime Davante Adams on the receiving end of his passes. Garrett Wilson is a fantastic young wide receiver but hasn’t performed at a level commensurate with Adams in Rodgers’s back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021. His ancillary pass-catching weapons are largely unimpressive, too. Furthermore, Gang Green’s elite defense likely won’t need Rodgers to sling the ball all over the yard to win games if they play up to their standards from the previous two years.

Thus, a consensus from CBS and ESPN projects Rodgers to have 3,760.7 passing yards this season. The line is also 50 yards higher than the consensus. Rodgers must defy Father Time to have over 3800.5 passing yards even if he stays healthy for all 17 games, and if he misses even one contest, he’ll have a difficult time besting that number.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry: 999.5 Rushing Yards – Higher

Derrick Henry has played his entire career with the Titans to this point. He signed with the Ravens in the offseason and will be in the same backfield as dynamic dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP. Jackson’s ability to gash teams as a runner or beat them over the top if they loaded the box could create some massive rushing lanes for King Henry.

Baltimore’s offensive tendencies are also favorable for Henry’s rushing outlook. According to the nfelo app, the Ravens had the 11th-highest Pass Rate Over Expected (-0.05 PROE) last season. Yet, as the number in the parenthesis indicates, they had a negative PROE.

In addition, according to RotoViz’s pace app, Baltimore was tied for the fifth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (47%) in 2023.

Henry has rushed for over 1,000 yards in five of his previous six seasons. Impressively, he had 937 rushing yards in only eight games in the outlier season in 2021. Henry doesn’t need a vintage campaign to clear his rushing prop. Finally, FantasyPros projects King Henry to rush for 1,182.0 yards this season.

Texans WR Stefon Diggs: 974.5 Receiving Yards – Lower

Stefon Diggs was an alpha wideout in Buffalo’s pass-catching corps filled with ancillary weapons the previous four years. Diggs was dominant as the top dog, amassing 1,535 receiving yards, 1,225, 1,429, and 1,183 during that period.

Nevertheless, the club moved on, trading him to the Texans. Diggs will have the best target competition since playing with Adam Thielen on the Vikings. Nico Collins and Tank Dell are electrifying wide receivers, and Dalton Schultz is a competent pass-catching tight end.

The playcalling could also hurt Diggs’s receiving outlook. Last season, the Texans were 19th in Pass Rate Over Expected (-2.6% PROE). Diggs also had his lowest per-game receiving yardage output (69.9) last season since his 2018 campaign. More alarmingly, Diggs’s production cratered down the stretch.

This will be his age-30 season, and Father Time isn’t kind to older wide receivers. Diggs’s route-running chops could allow him to age gracefully, but last year’s lousy finish could also be a warning of a significant decline in his play. Moreover, only the Dolphins, Buccaneers, and 49ers had multiple players with over 1,000 receiving yards last year. In 2022, the Dolphins, Eagles, Buccaneers, Seahawks, and Bengals had teammates with over 1,000 receiving yards. No team had three players with over 1,000 receiving yards in the previous two years.

Collins and Dell have a chemistry advantage with C.J. Stroud out of the gate. Diggs’s younger teammates could render the elder statesman in the room as the No. 3 option, and even if Dell isn’t as explosive at the beginning of the season after suffering a season-ending broken leg last year, Collins is almost certainly better than Diggs at this point in their respective careers. And, again, Schultz will soak up some looks.

Finally, the line at Underdog Fantasy is a slight value for the under compared to the 950.0 consensus line and the 900.5 line at Caesars Sportsbook and BetRivers.

The post 3 Best NFL Season-Long Player Picks Heading Into 2024 appeared first on Props.

AFC South Predictions 2024: Division Winner Odds & Best Bet

Josh Shepardson — Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:03:24 +0000

The AFC South Division was decided in Week 18 last season. The Jacksonville Jaguars came into 2023 as the favorite. However, they collapsed, missing the playoffs entirely while the upstart Houston Texans and feisty young Indianapolis Colts battled for the division title.

Can the Jaguars rebound? Will the Texans fall into the same fate as Jacksonville after their AFC South title? The Colts nearly won the division, even with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew leading them for most of the season. Can they take the next step?

The AFC South is an exciting division. Furthermore, betting on the division winner might not be the best bet if everything clicks. Let’s dig in deeper.

AFC South Odds

Texans +105
Jaguars +275
Colts +310
Titans +1000

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 13.

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Houston Texans to win the AFC South (+105)

The Texans nailed it last offseason, securing DeMeco Ryans as their head coach, Bobby Slowik as their offensive coordinator, rookie franchise signal-caller C.J. Stroud, and rookie Will Anderson as a standout on the defense. They seemingly have the cornerstones in place and made aggressive moves in the offseason to bolster the roster and take advantage of Stroud’s rookie contract, including trading for Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon and signing Danielle Hunter.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Houston had a positive 24-point point differential, which was only the sixth-best mark in the AFC but the best in the AFC South. However, they had Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) eighth-highest overall grade. Per FTN Fantasy, the Texans were 12th in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

The Texans were expected to struggle last year. Instead, they were an average to above-average team in the regular season and even won a playoff game. They appear to be an ascending club with a lot going for them entering Ryans’s and Stroud’s second seasons as head coach and at quarterback, respectively.

Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (+275)

The Jaguars were a popular Super Bowl sleeper last season after they won a playoff game and had a competitive showing in a loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the 2022 Divisional Round. They got off to a good start, winning seven of their first nine games before their bye in Week 9. The Jaguars were crushed by the 49ers in Week 10 but rebounded with back-to-back wins.

Sadly, it was all downhill from there. Trevor Lawrence hurt his ankle late in a devastating overtime loss to the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. Jacksonville lost six of their final seven games, with their only win against the Panthers.

Even with the nightmare finish, the Jags had a positive 6-point differential, the second-best in the division. They were also 10th in total DVOA, the best in the AFC South. Yet, they were also 23rd in PFF’s overall grade. Much like their tale of two seasons, their underlying data was encouraging and discouraging, depending upon the source. They’re probably somewhere between their stellar start and brutal finish, which might have been good enough to win the division in prior years but likely won’t cut it with the Texans and Colts improving.

Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South (+310)

The Colts overachieved last year, finishing with a 9-8 record despite a negative 19-point differential. They also navigated Anthony Richardson suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. The fourth pick in last year’s NFL Draft played approximately two and a half games as a rookie, missing more than half of the offensive snaps in two of his four starts.

Richardson is an elite runner with a rocket arm. Nevertheless, he needs seasoning. According to PFF, Richardson had only 455 dropbacks in his collegiate career. In perspective, Caleb Williams had precisely 455 dropbacks for USC in 2023. How fast can Richardson convert his tools into production, if he can at all?

The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman to a long-term deal, drafted Josh Downs in the third round in 2023, and selected Adonai Mitchell in the second round this year. They’ve assembled a wide receiver room of players with different skill sets to help Richardson. They also signed Joe Flacco, providing Richardson with an accomplished backup.

The defense was average last year by basically every measure, whether looking at traditional stats or advanced metrics. This year’s first-round pick, Laiatu Latu, can help add pass-rushing juice. Still, Indy’s ability to win the division largely hinges on how quickly or if Richardson can develop. Again, his tools are drool-inducing, and the light can flip on for elite prospects at any given time. Still, Stroud has already demonstrated the ability to perform at a high level, making it unappealing to bet on the Colts to win the division.

Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South (+1000)

The Titans were fourth in the AFC South last year with a 6-10 record and a division-worst negative 62-point point differential. The poor showing cost Mike Vrabel his job. Tennessee has replaced him with first-time head coach Brian Callahan. The new 39-year-old head coach was Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator from 2019 through 2023. Callahan is a 180-degree turn from Vrabel.

The organization likely hopes their offensive-minded head coach can get the most out of their swole, rocket-armed second-year quarterback, Will Levis. The Titans picked Levis 33rd overall last year. He was brilliant in his professional debut in Week 8, lighting up the Falcons for 238 passing yards and four touchdowns on 29 attempts. Predictably, it wasn’t smooth sailing after an eye-catching debut. Levis had only four more touchdown passes and four interceptions on 226 pass attempts after his first start. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Levis was 32nd in completion percentage (58.4%), 24th in Quarterback Rating (84.2), and 31st in QBR (33.2) among 32 qualified quarterbacks.

The Titans signed free agents Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to revamp one of the NFL’s worst receiving corps. DeAndre Hopkins is also in the mix as a high-caliber target earner. Tennessee also used the seventh pick in this year’s draft on offensive lineman JC Latham. This is undoubtedly an evaluation year for Levis, but the climb is likely too far for him to propel the Titans into contention for the division in a rebuilding season.

AFC South Division Predictions & Best Bet

The Texans accelerated from a laughingstock into a division winner and a winner of a playoff game in their first year of the Ryans and Stroud marriage at head coach and quarterback. They’re not messing around with resting on their laurels and easing into the next step. Instead, they’ve made win-now moves to contend for a title.

Development isn’t always linear for quarterbacks, but Stroud starts at a high point after a historically good rookie campaign. Among qualified quarterbacks, Stroud was third in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (7.47 ANY/A), first in passing yards per game (273.9), sixth in Quarterback Rating (100.8), and 16th in QBR (57.5). If the Diggs addition to a talented pass-catching corps that already included Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz doesn’t result in a chemistry or locker room headache and helps Stroud develop further, Houston’s offense can hang with anyone.

Meanwhile, per Sumer Sports, the defense was 15th in Expected Points Added per Play (-0.03 EPA/play). They were also 14th in defense DVOA. Ryan’s background is as a defensive coordinator, and Anderson, Hunter, and young cornerback Derek Stingley provide hope for the Texans to climb into the top 10 in defense this year. The Texans are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and the +1600 odds are tasty.

Best Bet: Houston Texans Super Bowl Champion | +1600 at FanDuel Sportsbook

More Division Odds & Predictions

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NFC North Predictions 2024: Division Winner Odds & Best Bet

Josh Shepardson — Sun, 25 Aug 2024 07:07:38 +0000

The Detroit Lions officially restored the roar last year, pushing the eventual NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers to the limit in the NFC Championship Game. They weren’t the only success story in the NFC North, though.

The Green Bay Packers have seemingly found their next franchise quarterback and also took the 49ers down to the wire in the NFC Divisional Round after boat-racing the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round.

The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings picked their potential franchise signal-callers in this year’s NFL Draft, adding another layer of intrigue to the NFC North Division. Which team will capture the NFC North crown, and is that the most appealing bet for the division? Let’s dig in and find out.

NFC North Odds

Lions – +135
Packers – +230
Bears – +275
Vikings – +950

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 13.

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Detroit Lions Odds to Win NFC North: (+135)

Perhaps the most important move for the Lions in the offseason was the one that didn’t happen and didn’t involve a player. Ben Johnson is returning as their offensive coordinator, and the club also signed Jared Goff to an extension.

Detroit’s offense was the A-side of the ball in their 12-5 season. According to FTN Fantasy, the Lions were seventh in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and fifth in offense DVOA in 2023. Per Sumer Sports, Detroit was seventh in Expected Points Added per Play (0.06 EPA/Play) and seventh in success rate (45.9 Success%).

However, the Lions were 13th in defense DVOA, 19th in special teams DVOA, 20th in EPA per Play allowed (-0.01 EPA/Play), and 18th in success rate against (43.5 Success%). Thus, Detroit’s point differential was a good but not great +66 points. If they hope to take a step forward this year, the Lions need their defense to improve.

Wisely, the Lions invested significant resources on the defense, signing defensive tackle D.J. Reader, edge rusher Marcus Davenport, and cornerback Amik Robertson. Detroit also traded up to the 24th pick in the NFL Draft to select cornerback Terrion Arnold and double-dipped at the position with their second pick, choosing Ennis Rakestraw. The Lions have the correct idea, but it’s not a shoo-in rookie cornerbacks will hit the ground running. Still, Detroit has a talented team and is understandably a slight favorite to win the NFC North.

Green Bay Packers to Win NFC North: (+230)

The Packers’ 9-8 record and +33-point point differential last season were good enough to claim a playoff berth. As for the Lions, Green Bay’s offense did the heavy lifting. Yet, the Packers had a worse defense, ranking 27th in defense DVOA, 23rd in EPA per Play allowed (0.01 EPA/Play), and 26th in success rate against (44.8 Success%).

Green Bay did the sensible thing in the offseason, replacing defensive coordinator Joe Barry with Jeff Hafley. Additionally, the Packers infused talent into their defense, signing safety Xavier McKinney and spending three top-100 picks in the NFL Draft on the defense. Improving the defense is a straightforward path to challenging the Lions for the NFC North title. However, spoiler alert: the Packers have the potential for greater things than winning their division thanks to their blossoming offense and rocket-armed quarterback.

Chicago Bears to Win NFC North: (+275)

The Bears picked quarterback Caleb Williams first in this year’s NFL Draft. Chicago has improved the weaponry to maximize Williams’s long-term and immediate success potential. Specifically, they traded for Keenan Allen, signed Gerald Everett and D’Andre Swift, and drafted wideout Rome Odunze ninth overall and offensive tackle Kiran Amegadie 75th.

C.J. Stroud had an incredible rookie season for the Texans in 2023, showcasing a rookie signal-caller can expedite the process of rebuilding and thrust a team into contention. However, the AFC South in 2023 wasn’t as strong as the NFC North projects to be this season. Moreover, I’m skeptical of Williams making a seamless transition to the NFL after regularly bypassing routine plays to try and make spectacular ones, often taking sacks when he was pressured. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Williams had a career-high 23.2% Pressure-to-Sack Rate (P2S%) in 2023. Comparatively, Stroud had a 14.1 P2S% in his final season at Ohio State.

Chicago’s defense had an encouraging finish to their 2023 campaign. Trading for edge rusher Montez Sweat proved to be a shrewd move. Still, it’s unwise to overstate a big finish on defense that featured matchups mostly against below-average to dreadful offenses. The Bears could contend for a playoff berth this year, but the Lions and Packers shouldn’t have trouble fending off Chicago for the division title this season.

Minnesota Vikings to Win NFC North: (+950)

The Vikings had a 7-10 record and only a -18-point point differential, which wasn’t too shabby for a team that lost Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury in Week 8. Head coach Kevin O’Connell got the best he could out of last year’s Vikings after winning the division with a 13-3 record in 2022. The Vikings won all 11 of their one-score regular season games in 2022, which was undoubtedly lucky to some extent but probably also a testament to O’Connell’s coaching.

Nevertheless, it’s a new era for the Vikings after Cousins left in free agency and signed with the Atlanta Falcons. Sam Darnold will be the bridge quarterback if J.J. McCarthy isn’t ready to start games in the NFL. McCarthy is fresh off of winning a National Championship at Michigan. Yet, McCarthy had only 359 dropbacks in 2023, with Michigan’s offensive line, running game, and defense serving as the backbone of the championship squad. McCarthy has intriguing tools but might need seasoning, and Darnold has played chiefly like garbage in his NFL career. Taking the long odds and trusting O’Connell would be compelling in a lesser division but not in the NFC North.

NFC North Predictions & Best Bet

Jordan Love had an impressive first season as a starter, closing with a flurry after an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks from Week 9 through the Super Bowl, Love was PFF’s highest-graded passer (90.7), third in Big-Time-Throw Rate (6.7 BTT%), tied for the 11th-lowest Turnover-Worthy-Play Rate (2.3 TWP%), third in QB Rating (108.3), and had the second-lowest Pressure-to-Sack Rate (11.3 P2S%).

Love’s best wide receivers and tight ends were all second-year pros or rookies. Can they reach another level in Love’s second season as a starter? What if one of the young pass-catching weapons emerges as a dominant player? The Packers were sixth in offense DVOA, sixth in EPA per Play (0.07), and eighth in success rate (45.1 Success%), possibly merely scratching the surface. Green Bay’s stock is rising, and their Super Bowl odds are alluring. Moreover, if they make a deep playoff run, there’s hedging potential at their +2000 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Best Bet: Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl | +2000 at Caesars Sportsbook

More Division Odds & Predictions

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NFC South Predictions 2024: Division Winner, Odds, Best Bet

Josh Shepardson — Tue, 13 Aug 2024 07:05:58 +0000

The NFC South was competitive last year, coming down to the wire. That’s the friendly way of discussing a division without a team winning double-digit games. Of course, having a team win the division with a winning record was a step up in 2023 from 2022.

The Buccaneers have won the division in three straight years. They’ve hardly been a powerhouse in the regular season in the past two years but managed to win in the Wild Card Round and push the Lions in the Divisional Round last season.

Will the Bucs make it an NFC South title four-peat? There’s a different betting favorite for winning the division title. Should gamers back the chalk? Let’s look at the four teams and determine the best course of betting action.

NFC South Division Odds

Falcons – (-115)
Bucs – (+290)
Saints – (+350)
Panthers (+1100)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of May 24.

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Atlanta Falcons Odds to Win NFC South: (-115)

The Arthur Smith era of the Falcons is over, concluding with a 7-10 record. Atlanta hired Raheem Morris as the club’s new head coach, and they completely overhauled the quarterback room.

First, they signed Kirk Cousins to a massive contract in free agency. Second, they used the eighth pick in the NFL Draft to select Michael Penix. Lousy quarterback play was Atlanta’s most significant issue last year, and they were unwilling to go down that road again.

Still, Cousins is 35 years old and returning from a torn Achilles in late October. Will he hit the ground running in a new offense with unfamiliar teammates? That remains to be seen. Atlanta also wasn’t bulletproof beyond quarterback last year.

Per FTN Fantasy, the Falcons were 28th in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 24th in offense DVOA, 24th in defense DVOA, and 27th in special teams DVOA. Atlanta also had a negative 52-point point differential. Cousins is likely the best quarterback in the division if he returns to pre-injury form, and there are reasons for optimism about the Falcons. Nonetheless, the odds are too short for a flawed team, even in a weak division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds to Win NFC South: (+290)

While the Bucs have won two division titles since Bruce Arians retired, they’ve had precisely a .500 record, going 8-9 in 2022 and 9-8 in 2023. Todd Bowles did guide them to a win against the Eagles in the Wild Card Round before putting forth a game effort against the Lions in a loss in the Divisional Round.

Many faces critical to winning the division are back in the fold after the Bucs re-signed Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. Tampa Bay was a genuine slightly better-than-.500 club, with a positive 23-point point differential.

However, they were only 18th in overall DVOA. Yet, according to Sumer Sports, the Buccaneers were 12th in Expected Points Added per play (0.01 EPA/Play). Mayfield had a stellar season. Unfortunately, while many integral pieces are back, offensive coordinator Dave Canales left for a head coaching gig within the division. The Bucs can’t afford Mayfield reverting to pre-2023 form in new offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s offense.

New Orleans Saints Odds to Win NFC South: (+350)

The Saints had an identical 9-8 record as the division-winning Bucs and split the season series with them but lost the division title on a tiebreaker. By many measures, the Saints were the best team in the NFC South.

First, New Orleans’s positive 75-point point differential was the best in the division by 52 points. Second, they were 15th in total DVOA. Third, according to Sumer Sports, they were tied for 15th in offensive success rate (42.4%), the best mark in the division. New Orleans also had Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) highest overall grade in the division, ranking 14th.

The Saints’ defense was average to above average by every measure. They were 15th in defense DVOA, 11th in PFF’s defense grade, eighth in scoring defense (19.2 points per game), and fifth in EPA/play. Joe Woods is still the club’s defensive coordinator, and the defense from last year is largely intact.

The Saints were ninth in scoring offense (23.6 points per game). Nevertheless, their other offensive ranks weren’t as impressive. They were 16th in PFF’s offense grade, 17th in offense DVOA, and 14th in EPA/Play (-0.01). The Saints hope to generate a spark on that side of the football with a new offensive coordinator, replacing Pete Carmichael with Klint Kubiak, the son of Gary Kubiak.

The younger Kubiak was most recently the passing game coordinator for the 49ers last season. He was previously an offensive coordinator for the Vikings in 2021, when they finished 13th in yards per play (5.7), 14th in scoring offense (25.0 points per game), and tied for the fewest turnovers (13).

Carolina Panthers Odds to Win NFC South: (+1100)

The Panthers traded up to the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to select Bryce Young. Unfortunately, he had a nightmare first season while the second pick in the draft, C.J. Stroud, had a historic rookie season.

Frank Reich didn’t even last the entire season as the head coach, getting fired in Week 12 after a 1-11 start. The Panthers had the worst record (2-15) and the second-worst point differential (-180) in the NFL. Sadly, they didn’t reap the benefit of having the first overall pick in the NFL Draft because that was part of the package to acquire Young last season.

The Panthers have a significant climb to contend for the division title, and trading edge rusher Brian Burns to the Giants for a second-round pick removed a star from an already lousy defense.

Still, the Panthers have wisely invested resources into the offensive line and skill positions to give Young a chance to succeed. Moreover, they hired Canales from the Bucs as their new head coach. Canales was Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator last season, and he’s been the quarterback whisperer, bringing the best out of Geno Smith in 2022 as Seattle’s quarterbacks coach and Mayfield in 2023.

The Panthers are justifiably priced at long odds to win the NFC South. Yet, gamblers don’t have to look back any further than 2022 at Carolina’s fellow 1995 expansion franchise for an example of a similar turnaround. The Jaguars were 3-14 in 2021 under Urban Meyer’s incompetent leadership, and No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence had a dreadful rookie campaign. Carolina is unlikely to accomplish the same turnaround, but it’s not impossible, and the NFC South is ripe for the taking.

NFC South Predictions & Best Bet

The Saints are a bargain as the third-ranked team in betting odds to win the NFC South. Their defense is the backbone of the team, and the offense could take a step forward under Kubiak’s guidance.

Again, the Falcons have too short of betting odds for a team with plenty of questions and a 35-year-old quarterback returning from a torn Achilles. If the Falcons get off to a slow start, Mayfield regresses to pre-Canales form, and the Panthers don’t make a massive leap, the Saints can win the NFC South by duplicating last year’s roughly league-average performance.

Best Bet: New Orleans Saints to Win NFC South | +330 at DraftKings Sportsbook

More Division Odds & Predictions

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