Let’s start here: If you’re looking for advice on how to build a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket, you’ve come to the wrong place.

With perfection odds in the neighborhood of 1 in 9.2 quintillion, you have a greater mathematical chance of being struck by lightning five times (hat tip, old Roy Sullivan) than you do keeping your March Madness sheet clean. So any thought of going 67-0 is completely delusional.

However, striving for perfection remains the best mindset for winning a bracket pool — and it all starts with knowing which strategies to deploy to push as many teams as possible through each round.

Survive and advance. It’s the key to everything in March — both on the court and in your bracket.

With a little help from history and current trends, along with a dash of prognostication, Props.com offers eight tips for winning your NCAA Tournament bracket contest. (But not, of course, winning any actual cash money — nope, no wagering going on here. Doing this bracket thing just for fun.)

1. Never assume the top dog in the Top 25 will win the NCAA title

Ten years have passed since the team that entered March Madness atop the Associated Press Top 25 poll actually realized championship glory (Kentucky in 2012). In fact, since 1985 — the first year the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams and began the 1-16 seeding format we know and love today — only three teams that entered the Big Dance ranked No. 1 went on to cut down the nets: Duke in 1992, UCLA in 1995, and Duke again in 2001.

That’s a 4-for-32 effort by top-ranked teams.

Not exactly a good omen for current AP No. 1 Gonzaga, right? Especially since the Zags are the most recent No. 1 team to fall short of capturing the ultimate prize, reaching last year’s NCAA Championship Game with an undefeated record before losing to Baylor.

Does this mean that Gonzaga — the clear-cut favorite this year to win its first national title — is destined to swing and miss again and make it 4-for-33 for No. 1 squads? Not necessarily. Just know that if you decide to pencil in the Zags on the final line of your NCAA Tournament bracket, you’re going against some serious history.

Then again, maybe this is the year Gonzaga bucks the AP No. 1 trend. Certainly, the oddsmakers and betting community believe it’s plausible, as the Zags’ +300 odds to win it all are far shorter than any other team. (Next best is fellow No. 1 seed Arizona at +650, followed by No. 2 seed Kentucky at +800 and No. 1 seed Kansas at +850.)

2. It’s OK to presume a 1-seed will cut down the nets

Since 1979, the first incarnation of the modern-day seeding system (1, 2, 3, 4, etc.), the No. 1 seed has produced 25 of 42 national titles — an occurrence rate of 59.5 percent. And since 1985, that average rises to 63.9 percent (23 of 36).

The rest of the trophy count, seed-wise:

No. 2 (seven titles)
No. 3 (five)
No. 4 (one)
No. 6 (two)
No. 7 (one, Connecticut in 2014)
No. 8 (one, Villanova in 1985)

Yes, this has been a parity-filled college basketball season. And we’re probably headed for a lot of chaos starting Thursday. But with 37 of the last 42 national championships coming from top-three seeds — and with most NCAA Tournament bracket pools awarding the most points for correctly selecting the champion — you should pick your winner accordingly. Or just light your money on fire.

(Oh, wait, that’s right — we’re not playing for money.)

3. Don’t bet on all four No. 1 seeds booking flights to New Orleans

Wait, didn’t you just say nearly 64 percent of title winners over the past 3 1/2 decades have been No. 1 seeds?

We did. But we didn’t say go chalk all the way to the Final Four. That would be silly, because it’s only happened once since 1979: In 2008, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA, and national champion Kansas became the only four No. 1 seeds to make it to the final weekend.

In fact, since 1993, the four top seeds have collectively survived to the Elite Eight only seven times (1993, 2001, 2003, 2007-09, 2016). The last time as many as three No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four: 2015 with Wisconsin, Kentucky, and champion Duke.

In other words, find the No. 1 seed you really love, and maybe another you really like, and advance them to the Final Four. Because it’s highly unlikely that top seeds Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, and Baylor will be sharing the Final Four stage in the Big Easy on April 2.

4. First Four teams should be viewed as serious Sweet 16 contenders

Those teams competing in the Tuesday and Wednesday play-in games might give off a “Just happy to be here” vibe. But the winners of the play-in contests involving No. 11 seeds and No. 12 seeds should not be immediately dismissed as certain one-and-dones when they get to the big stage.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, at least one play-in participant has advanced at least as far as the Round of 32 every year but two: 2019 and 2020 (when COVID-19 canceled the Tournament).

What’s more, eight of the nine Cinderellas reached the Sweet 16 (and some beyond):

2021: UCLA (Final Four)
2018: Syracuse (Sweet 16)
2017: USC (Sweet 16)
2016: Wichita State (Sweet 16)
2015: Dayton (Sweet 16)
2014: Tennessee (Sweet 16)
2013: LaSalle (Sweet 16)
2012: South Florida (Round of 32)
2011: VCU (Final Four)

Here are some not-so-pretty statistics pertaining to this year’s First Four cluster:

• No. 12 seed Wyoming is 3-5 SU in its last eight games
• No. 12 seed Indiana is 4-8 SU in its last 12 outings
• No. 11 seed Notre Dame defeated only three NCAA Tournament teams all season
• According to CBS bracket expert Jerry Palm, No. 11 seed Rutgers owns the lowest-ever NCAA NET ranking of any at-large tournament team (77th)

And yet, history tells us it’s highly likely at least one member of this quartet will make it to the Round of 32. Your quest: Identify that team and pick them to advance in your NCAA Tournament bracket, if only for just a game.

5. Ignore bottom seeds in the first round

In 2018, Maryland Baltimore-County (UMBC) pulled off the greatest coup in college hoops history, crushing top-seeded Virginia by 20 points. It marked the first and only time a No. 16 seed advanced into the second round since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

While No. 15 seeds have fared incrementally better over the years, the hit rate still ain’t great: 15-for-144. That’s a .104 batting average (otherwise known as Chris Davis territory). Of course, you don’t need a telescope to see the last No. 15 that pulled off a stunning upset: It happened last year, when Oral Roberts stunned not only No. 2 seed Ohio State, but also No. 7 seed Florida to reach the Sweet 16.

Still, you have to trust the math here: Altogether, Nos. 15-16 seeds are 10-278 against Nos. 1-2 seeds. That’s a paltry success rate of 3.5 percent.

In other words, even if you have a palpable gut feeling about 15th-seeded Delaware vanquishing Villanova in the South Region or 15th-seeded Jacksonville State ousting Auburn in the Midwest Region or even No. 1-seed Baylor succumbing to Norfolk State in the East Region, it’s best to ignore that feeling, save your bracket, and pick the higher seeds to advance.

6. No. 4 seeds and the Final Four don’t mix

The Arizona Wildcats are the top dog in this year’s South Region and a very trendy pick among pundits, bettors, and bracketiers to get to New Orleans and win their second national championship. That very well might happen for two reasons: 1) The Wildcats are talented, and 2) they’re not three spots lower on the seeding ladder.

We mention that second point because since 1979, only one 4-seed has won the national title. That team: The 1997 … Arizona Wildcats. The squad led by Miles Simon and freshman Michael Bibby became the first program in Tournament history to upend three No. 1 seeds (Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky).

No other No. 4 seed since the 1997 Wildcats has gotten to the Final Four. Prior to that, only two 4-seeds — Cincinnati in 1992 and Syracuse in 1996 — won their region.

So if you’re considering advancing this year’s 4-seeds — Arkansas, Illinois, UCLA, and/or Providence — in your NCAA Tournament bracket, it’s probably wise to pump the brakes on or before the Elite Eight.

7. While you’re at it, be wary of 5-seeds, too

Say this much for No. 4 seeds: At least they have that ’97 title with Arizona. It’s one more championship than 5-seeds have produced.

That’s right, since the seeding format was instituted 42 years ago, the seed that everyone loves to pick against in the opening round has never made it to the promised land. Three teams, though, have gotten close: Florida in 2000, Indiana in 2002, and Butler in 2010 reached the National Championship game.

A total of seven No. 5 seeds have reached the Final Four, a success rate of 4.9 percent. The most recent: Auburn in 2019.

This year’s 5-seeds: UConn in the West Region, Houston in the South, St. Mary’s in the East, and Iowa in the Midwest.

8. Plan on blowing up at least one region in your bracket

In last year’s bubble-controlled NCAA Tournament, only seven of the top-4 regional seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.

In 2018, third-seeded Michigan had perhaps the all-time easiest path to the National Championship game. The Wolverines won the West Region by defeating Montana (14-seed), Houston (6), Texas A&M (7), and Florida State (9). Then they knocked off South Region Cinderella and sixth-seeded Loyola-Chicago in the Final Four, ultimately falling to No. 2 overall seed Villanova in the title bout.

Also, thanks in part to Loyola’s stunning run that year, none of the top four seeds in the South Region (Virginia, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Arizona) reached the Sweet 16.

While two regions getting blown up in the same year is rare, one region getting turned upside-down is not. For instance, back in 2013, the West Region’s 12, 13, and 14 seeds (Ole Miss, La Salle, and Harvard) were giant-killers in the opening round. And in 2009, 2011, and 2012, the 11-13 seeds of the same region pulled off coinciding opening-round shockers.

All of which leads to this final piece of advice: When boldly predicting monumental upsets in the opening rounds, isolate the stunners to one regional cluster.

Now, good luck forecasting which of the four regions gets torn asunder …

The post NCAA Tournament Bracket: 8 Tips For Winning Your Pool appeared first on Props.

Thursday nights belong to college basketball once again. And the timing couldn’t be better for college basketball betting enthusiasts, as the schedule delivers yet another clash of Top 25 powers. This one involves a couple of Big Ten rivals who will hook up for the second time in a month.

Props.com breaks down the college basketball betting odds for Thursday’s highly anticipated Ohio State-Wisconsin matchup, as well as the best rivalry in the West Coast Conference.

Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 13.

No. 16 Ohio State Vs No. 13 Wisconsin

Tipoff/TV: 7 p.m.  ET/ESPN2
Ohio State: 10-3 SU/6-7 ATS
Wisconsin: 13-2 SU/10-5 ATS
Spread/Total: Wisconsin -3.5 (-115)/141
Last meeting: Ohio State won 73-55 as a five-point home favorite (Dec. 11)

About Ohio State: The Buckeyes are 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS since upending then-No. 1 Duke 71-66 as a 3-point home underdog on Nov. 30. Ohio State rebounded from last Thursday’s ugly 67-51 loss at Indiana with Saturday’s 95-87 victory at Northwestern as a 7.5-point road favorite. Among Big Ten schools, Ohio State ranks second in field-goal proficiency (48.2 percent), third in made 3-pointers (9.3 per game), and fifth in scoring offense (76.2 ppg).

About Wisconsin: The Badgers have responded to their 18-point loss at Ohio State with five consecutive victories, including three straight wins and covers in Big Ten action. The Badgers, who have scored at least 70 points throughout their current winning streak, lead the nation in fewest turnovers committed (8.2 per game).

What’s At Stake: Ohio State and Wisconsin are 4-1 in Big Ten play. Tonight’s winner will have sole possession of third place, trailing Michigan State and Illinois (both 5-0).

Players To Watch

Ohio State forward E.J. Liddell has been a dynamic asset this season, leading the Buckeyes in scoring (20.7 points per game) and rebounds (7.2 per game). The 6-foot-7 Liddell also leads the Big Ten in blocks, swatting 3.2 shots per game.

Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis is a legitimate candidate for this year’s Wooden Award. The uber-athletic sophomore, who’s already generating top-10 buzz for this year’s NBA draft, leads the Badgers in scoring (22.3 ppg), rebounds (7.4 rpg), and assists (2.6 apg).

Notable Trends

• Ohio State is on positive ATS runs of 11-5 on the road and 8-3 as an underdog
• Wisconsin is 9-3 ATS in its last 11 overall
• Over is 9-3 in Ohio State’s last 12 overall and 16-5 in its last 21 on the road
• Over is 5-0 in Wisconsin’s last five overall and 5-1 in its last six at home
• The favorite has covered 14 of the last 20 head-to-head meetings
• Over is 7-2 in the last nine series battles

Ohio State vs Wisconsin Odds and Action

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET: Wisconsin landed on PointsBet USA’s Thursday college basketball odds board as a 2.5-point chalk. The Badgers moved to -3 Wednesday evening and on to -3.5 early this morning. Wisconsin is landing 66% of spread tickets, but spread money is much closer, at 52% on the Badgers. The total opened at 139, peaked at 141.5 early this afternoon and is now 141. It’s two-way play here, as well, with 52% of tickets/55% of money on the Over.

BYU Vs No. 2 Gonzaga

Tipoff/TV: 11 p.m.  ET / ESPN2
Venue: McCarthey Athletic Center (Spokane)
BYU: 14-3 SU/9-6 ATS
Gonzaga: 12-2 SU/7-7 ATS
Gonzaga: Gonzaga -15 (-105)/151.5 (Over -105)
Last meeting: Gonzaga won 88-78 as a 14-point favorite in the West Coast Conference championship game (March 9, 2021)

About BYU-Gonzaga: The Cougars (2-0 in WCC) have won four in a row, but only are 2-2 SU/ATS against power-conference or ranked teams this season. BYU has the country’s 33rd-ranked scoring defense, allowing 61.9 points per outing. The Zags have posted five consecutive blowout victories (3-2 ATS) since an 91-82 upset loss to Alabama on Dec. 4. Gonzaga currently ranks second nationally in scoring offense (87.9 ppg) and scoring margin (23.9), trailing No. 6 Arizona in both categories.

Notable Trends

• BYU is riding ATS hot streaks of 19-7-1 on the road and 8-1-2 as an underdog
• Gonzaga is 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home and 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday games
• Over is 4-1 in BYU’s last five at home
• Over is 4-1 after Gonzaga scored 90+ points in its previous game
• BYU is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four meetings after Gonzaga went 5-0 ATS in the previous five

BYU vs Wisconsin Odds and Action

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET: The Zags opened -13.5 Wednesday night at PointsBet USA and stretched to -15 by midafternoon today. Gonzaga is nabbing 72% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars. The total dipped from 153.5 to 151.5 by this morning, then edged up to 152 late this afternoon. Ticket count is 4/1 and money beyond 9/1 on the Over.

The post Thursday College Basketball Betting: Ohio State Eyes Sweep Of Wisconsin appeared first on Props.

Before looking ahead to this year’s Pac-12 Conference betting odds, let’s take a look backward: Last year, four Pac-12 schools reached the regional semifinal round of the NCAA Tournament (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State).

A week later, UCLA came agonizingly close to forcing a second overtime against No. 1 Gonzaga in the Final Four … until Zags guard Jalen Suggs buried a legacy-clinching, game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer.

The Pac-12’s well-timed uprising dominated last year’s NCAA Tournament conversation. The conference shoehorned those four teams into the Sweet 16, even though none possessed a top-five seed. (USC was the highest seed at No. 6.)

This season, expectations in the Pac-12 are markedly different. The conference’s Big Three of UCLA, USC, and Arizona are currently ranked in the Associated Press top 10. That trio also falls within the top 15 of the analytics-centric KenPom rankings. (Although that will soon change following USC’s upset loss at Stanford on Tuesday.)

Does that mean the league’s other eight schools have no shot at the regular-season title? Or, are the “pretenders” better equipped to spring upsets during the NCAA Tournament?

Props.com addresses those questions  in our final college basketball conference betting preview that breaks down the Pac-12 Conference title odds.

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 11. All SU and ATS records current as of date of publication.

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Previous Conference Previews

Big Ten
ACC
SEC
Big East
Big 12

Pac-12 Basketball Odds

The Favorites

UCLA +130 (10-1 SU/5-6 ATS)
Arizona +130 (12-1 SU/8-4-1 ATS)

UCLA or Arizona?

Arizona or UCLA?

This question figures to linger for the rest of the season, as bettors ponder a Pac-12 regular-season winner and the conference tournament champion (not to mention the Final Four participants and eventual national champion).

Just how far the Wildcats and Bruins go remains to be seen. This much is known, though: UCLA and Arizona check all the proverbial boxes of what constitutes a title contender:

— No. 3 UCLA and No. 6 Arizona are a combined 22-2, with high-profile losses to No. 2 Gonzaga and No. 22 Tennessee, respectively.

— Arizona boasts the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (89.9 points per game). The Bruins ranks 24th overall — but second in the Pac-12 — at 80.5 ppg.

— The Wildcats sport the strongest victory margin in the land (they’re crushing opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game). UCLA comes in a respectable 23rd (15 ppg).

— Arizona and UCLA have played the 6th- and 16th-toughest schedules, respectively. As such, both will be in the mix for a No. 1 seed come NCAA Tournament — that is, assuming the keep winning.

The Wildcats and Bruins (along with the rest of the league) have had to deal with several COVID-related postponements that have disrupted the Pac-12 schedule. That said, both are 2-0 in league play. The teams are scheduled to meet Feb. 3 in Tucson, then again in Los Angeles at an undetermined date after a scheduled matchup Dec. 30 was nixed.

The Challenger

USC +500 (13-0 SU/8-5 ATS)

USC was the conference’s only remaining unbeaten team … until this afternoon, when the Trojans dropped a 75-69 decision to Stanford as a 6.5-point road favorite.

That loss is sure to send USC — currently ranked No. 6 — tumbling down both the AP and KenPom rankings. (The Trojans entered Tuesday 15th in the latter, which factors in strength of schedule, strength of opponent, adjusted efficiency margin, adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and points-per-possession over 40 minutes.)

Prior to the Stanford stunner, USC was yielding only 60.8 points per game, which ranked 27th nationally and first among Pac-12 squads. Yet entering Tuesday, the Trojans were more or less an afterthought on both the Final Four and national championship odds boards at DraftKings.

Obviously, one loss does not sink a season, and USC certainly is talented enough to remain in the hunt for the league title the rest of the way. One bit of good news for Andy Enfield’s team: It has three weeks to get back in a groove before finally running into Arizona and UCLA in back-to-back games on Feb. 5 and 12.

The Dark Horses

Oregon +2,500 (9-6 SU/4-11 ATS)
Washington State +3,000 (9-6 SU/7-8 ATS)
Colorado +3,500 (11-3 SU/4-8-2 ATS)

Oregon gets credit for scheduling BYU, Saint Mary’s, Houston, and Baylor during non-conference action. The Ducks also reflexively deserve praise for their current three-game winning streak, knocking off Pepperdine (68-59), Utah (79-66), and Oregon State (78-76). Now we’re about to find out just how dangerous the Ducks will be in the Pac-12 Conference championship race, as they hit the road this weekend to play UCLA (Thursday) and USC (Saturday). If Oregon manages to sweep those contests, its 25-to-1 conference odds will shrink dramatically.

The fact Washington State is in the fifth position in the Pac-12 Conference odds market is a tad baffling. The Cougars, who finished 7-12 in league play a season ago, are off to a 2-2 start in conference. They also have suffered upset losses to Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, and Boise State. Additionally, WSU’s 75th-ranked schedule doesn’t inspire confidence. That said, the Cougars currently rank fourth in the league in scoring (75.9 points per game) and third in scoring defense (64.5 ppg).

Colorado could soon gather sleeper momentum for the regular-season title, as it is off to a 3-1 start in league play (only loss at UCLA). If the Buffaloes can survive an upcoming four-game gauntlet — at Arizona and Arizona State; home versus USC and UCLA — the back end of the schedule features mostly inferior or evenly matched opponents.

The Long Shots

Stanford +8,000 (8-4 SU/5-6-1 ATS)
Utah +8,000 (8-8 SU/5-10-1 ATS)
Arizona State +10,000 (5-8 SU/5-7-1 ATS)
California +12,000 (9-7 SU/12-4 ATS)
Oregon State +12,000 (3-11 SU/4-10 ATS)
Washington +25,000 (6-7 SU/5-8 ATS)

Stanford already knows what it’s like to run up against elite opposition, as it fell to now-No. 1 Baylor (86-48) and No. 21 Texas (60-53) in December. But that can’t compare to the pressure of facing USC (twice), UCLA, and Arizona four times from Jan. 11-29. Will the Cardinal be ready for this challenge after involuntarily taking a 19-day COVID?

Like Stanford, Utah is an 80-to-1 long shot to claim the Pac-12 crown. That’s mostly the result of the Utes, who somehow have avoided the nationwide rash of COVID-related postponements, being off to a league-worst 1-5 start play. Four of the five losses — USC (93-73), Oregon State (88-76), Oregon (79-66), and Washington State (77-61) — were by double digits.

As for uber long shots Arizona State, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington, well we can find one nice thing to say about each squad: Arizona State bounced back from a ghastly 51-29 (not a typo) home loss to Washington State with road victories over Oregon and Creighton; Cal has been a boon for bettors at 12-4 ATS (best in the Pac-12); Oregon State did come within a basket of upsetting arch-rival Oregon on Monday (78-76 home loss); and Washington has already eclipsed last year’s win total (five).

Hey, there’s always next year.

The post College Basketball Betting: Pac-12 Conference Preview appeared first on Props.

The Big 12 Conference currently boasts the defending national champion (Baylor); the top-ranked team in this week’s Associated Press poll (also Baylor); the No. 2 school in all-time victories (Kansas); the nation’s most improbable turnaround story (Iowa State); and six plausible candidates for the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16.

And yet when talking heads debate which league is the most competitive from top to bottom, the Big 12 usually is an afterthought behind the Big Ten, ACC, and even Pac-12, .

Is this the season when that narrative finally changes and the Big 12 asserts itself as the best league in the land?

Props.com breaks down the regular-season-title odds of each Big 12 squad in our latest college basketball conference betting preview.

Big 12 odds via DraftKings and updated as of 4 p.m. ET Jan. 4. All SU and ATS records current as of date of publication.

Previous Conference Previews

Big Ten
ACC
SEC
Big East

Big 12 Basketball Odds

The Favorites

Baylor +180 (13-0 SU/8-4-1 ATS)
Kansas +180 (11-1 SU/6-6 ATS)

Kansas and Baylor have accounted for 16 partial or outright Big 12 regular-season championships since 2005. The lone exception was 2018-19, when Texas Tech and Kansas State were co-champs.

So even though both are virtual locks to qualify for the Big Dance come March, don’t expect the Jayhawks or Bears to coast on cruise control through the regular season. With both among the favorites to win it all, Baylor and Kansas need to keep their foot on the proverbial gas for NCAA Tournament seeding purposes.

The fact Baylor is even in this position is somewhat surprising. After claiming the school’s first-ever men’s basketball championship, the Bears lost a ton of talent (and leadership) to both graduation and the NBA (namely Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague). Yet Baylor is still undefeated and has spent four consecutive weeks at No. 1, largely on the strength of a slew of impressive early-season victories.

During a six-week span from Nov. 20 through New Year’s Day, the Bears took down No. 6 Villanova (57-36), now-No. 10 Michigan State (75-58), Stanford (86-48), Arizona State (75-63), Oregon (78-70), and No. 8 Iowa State (77-72). Along the way, they went 4-1-1 ATS while prevailing by an average of 16.8 points.

Per one metric, Baylor has played the 16th-toughest schedule, and the school ranks in the top 15 in scoring offense (14th overall, 83.2 ppg) and scoring defense (10th, 58.0 ppg).

By comparison, Kansas (85.2 ppg) rates ninth in scoring offense but 139th in scoring defense (66.9 ppg). Also, the Jayhawks lag behind Baylor in strength of schedule (No. 30) and the KenPom rankings. And unlike Baylor, KU has a blemish on its record — and a bad one at that: On Nov. 26, the Jayhawks  shockingly fell to Dayton 74-73 as a 16-point home favorite.

Despite all this, the oddsmakers list No. 8 Kansas and Baylor as co-favorites to win the Big 12 (and at one sportsbook, they also share the exact same odds to reach the Final Four and win the national title).

So which team is superior? We’ll find out starting in about a month, as Kansas hosts the Bears on Feb. 5, then travels to Baylor 21 days later.

The Challenger

Texas +350 (11-2 SU/6-7 ATS)

It’s difficult to project if Texas (1-0 Big 12) has a realistic shot of leap-frogging Baylor and Kansas for the conference crown. The Longhorns do own the nation’s top scoring defense. But they’re only 15th in the KenPom ratings, which factors in overall record, adjusted efficiency margin, adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency, and points per 40 possessions. Additionally, Texas slots behind Kansas in strength of schedule (33rd).

Speaking of which, Texas might have drawn the league’s most forgiving slate, at least early on. The Longhorns opened Big 12 play by beating West Virginia (74-59 win), then face Kansas State (road), Oklahoma State (road), and Oklahoma (home). And much to the delight of network-TV officials, Texas won’t encounter Kansas or Baylor until the second week of February.

The Dark Horses

Texas Tech +1,100 (10-2 SU/6-6 ATS)
Iowa State +1,200 (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS)

Texas Tech averaged 88.3 points in its first six games (all victories over lesser-light opponents). But the Red Raiders have been even more impressive on defense, allowing just 58.2 points per game (which is 14th nationally).

Even though defensive-minded head coach Chris Beard bolted Texas Tech for Texas, it’s clear the Raiders still are placing a premium on defense under new head coach Mark Adams. And they’ll need to continue playing stifling defense in the coming days, as Texas Tech is scheduled to play consecutive games against No. 11 Iowa State (road), No. 6 Kansas (home), and No. 1 Baylor (road) from Wednesday through Jan. 11.

Iowa State saw its impressive 13-game season-opening winning streak halted in Saturday’s 77-72 loss to Baylor. But the Cyclones, who fell three spots to No. 11 in this week’s AP poll, more than held their own against the defending champs (and easily cashed as 8.5-point favorites).

Prior to Saturday, ISU enjoyed power-conference victories over Xavier (82-70), Creighton (64-58), and Iowa (73-53), along with a neutral-site thumping of No. 9 Memphis on Nov. 26 (78-59). It’s been quite a turnaround for a program that went 0-18 in conference play last season.

The Long Shots

West Virginia +2,200 (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS)
Oklahoma +3,000 (11-2 SU/6-7 ATS)
Oklahoma State +3,500 (7-4 SU/4-7 ATS)
TCU +12,000 (10-1 SU/5-4-2 ATS)
Kansas State +18,000 (8-4 SU/6-5-1 ATS)

If West Virginia is to make a run at the conference title, its defense will have to lead the charge. Among Big 12 schools, the Mountaineers rank last in scoring offense (69.5 points per game) and free-throw proficiency (63.2 percent). WVU is also eighth in field-goal shooting (44.8 percent) and three-point proficiency (32.5 percent). Now, if Bob Huggins’ troops can regularly hold opposing teams to 14.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc — as the Mountaineers did in their 56-53 upset of No. 15 Connecticut in December — they might have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

OU posted a pair of résumé-building  non-conference wins over No. 14 Florida (74-67) and No. 12 Arkansas (88-66); but it also suffered baffling defeats to Utah State (73-70) and Butler (66-62). So don’t be shocked if the inconsistent Sooners upend one of the league’s top four teams — then turnaround and lose to one of the bottom four squads.

The post-Cade Cunningham period  isn’t off to a great start at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys incurred non-conference home losses to Oakland (56-55), Wichita State (60-51), and Xavier (77-71), along with a neutral-site defeat to No. 14 Houston (72-61). Throw in narrow overtime victories over Oral Roberts (78-77) and Cleveland State (98-93), and it’s fair to wonder if OSU will be among the cellar-dwellers during league play?

From Dec. 8-18, TCU strung together three solid wins over Utah (76-62), Texas A&M (68-64), and Georgetown (80-73). Was that enough to erase the memory of an 85-66 blowout loss to Santa Clara? We’ll soon find out just how dangerous the Horned Frogs are, as they’ve drawn the monumental task of hosting Baylor (Saturday) and Kansas (Monday) over a 50-hour period.

Kansas State (0-1 in Big 12) might have an arduous climb to a league title, but eclipsing last year’s tally of four league wins seems reasonable. Of their five power-conference opponents to date, the Wildcats only defeated Nebraska (67-58). However, their losses to Arkansas (72-64), Illinois (72-64), Marquette (64-63), and Oklahoma (71-69) were by a total of 19 points.

The post College Basketball Betting: Big 12 Conference Preview appeared first on Props.

The reconstituted Big East likely will never recapture the dominance of 1985, when three teams — Villanova, Georgetown, and St. John’s — reached the Final Four. Nor is it likely to ever duplicate the 2010-11 campaign, when the league shoehorned 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament (including national champion Connecticut).

However, the 11-team league is enjoying a bit of a resurgence, especially with UConn back in the mix. Last year, four Big East schools garnered NCAA invites; this season (presuming good health), as many as seven programs could realistically contend for The Big Dance.

One school, though, appears to stand head and shoulders above the others: Per the college basketball conference championship betting market, the Villanova Wildcats are the overwhelming favorite to take the regular-season Big East crown.

But that doesn’t mean Jay Wright’s squad won’t be challenged. In fact, one of the teams listed below in the “Dark Horses” category has already knocked out Goliath — and did so convincingly.

Props.com breaks down the regular-season-title odds of each Big East squad in our latest college basketball conference betting preview.

Big East odds via DraftKings and updated as of 3 p.m. ET Dec. 28. All SU and ATS record current as of date of publication.

Previous Conference Previews

Big Ten
ACC
SEC

Big East Basketball Odds

The Favorite

Villanova +100 (8-4 SU/6-6 ATS)

Villanova has everything bettors should want in a preseason conference favorite: a solid starting five, including an experienced playmaker handling clutch moments (fifth-year guard Collin Gillespie); an early slate of prominent opponents with contrasting styles (including UCLA, Purdue, St. Joseph’s, Syracuse, Tennessee, and Baylor, which were part of a top-ranked non-conference schedule); and an undeniable track record of recent league success (115-28 Big East record since 2013-14).

Despite all that, though, this Wildcats squad is far from flawless, which was evident in a pair of recent blowout defeats — 57-36 at No. 1 Baylor and 79-59 at Creighton in the Big East opener.

To be fair, Villanova (AP ranking: 22; KenPom ranking: 12) rebounded nicely from the Creighton setback to beat Xavier 71-58 as a 5.5-point favorite in the conference home opener. However, the ugly losses to Baylor and Creighton — along with an overtime loss at UCLA and a close neutral-site loss to Purdue — have led some to wonder just how invincible the Wildcats are.

Those questions figure to linger at least until Villanova shows it can successfully navigate a tough upcoming schedule that includes trips to Seton Hall (Jan. 1), DePaul (Jan. 8), and Xavier (Jan. 12), along with the anticipated home rematch against Creighton (Jan. 5).

Should ‘Nova come out of that stretch unscathed, bettors might feel secure in reassigning “Final Four contender” status to the Wildcats, who began the season as the AP’s No. 4 team.

The Challengers

Connecticut +450 (10-3 SU/6-7 ATS)
Xavier +750 (11-2 SU/9-4 ATS)
Seton Hall +800 (9-1 SU/6-3 ATS)

It makes sense that oddsmakers view UConn, Xavier, and Seton Hall as the most viable threats to Villanova’s pursuit of an eighth regular-season title since 2013.

For starters, the three teams are clustered in the top 30 of the KenPom rankings, which factor in strength of schedule, opponents’ strength of schedule, adjusted efficiency margin, adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency, and possessions per 40 minutes.

According another metric, Xavier (18th), UConn (19th), and Seton Hall (25th) all have played top-25 schedules to date.

Additionally, No. 15 Seton Hall owns the highest Big East ranking in this week’s Associated Press Top 25 — that’s seven slots ahead of Villanova.

Meanwhile, the schedule sets up particularly well for Xavier and UConn. The Musketeers get their rematch with Villanova in two weeks, and that’s at home. From there, Xavier wouldn’t have to deal with the Wildcats again until possibly the conference tournament.

As for UConn, it has a potentially treacherous back-to-back-to-back slate against Seton Hall, Xavier, and Villanova from Feb. 16-22. However, all three games are in Connecticut. Also, the Huskies road games against Seton Hall (Jan. 8) and Villanova (Feb. 5) are spaced a month apart (their scheduled game at Xavier today was called off due to COVID issues).

The Dark Horses

Creighton +1,300 (9-3 SU/5-7 ATS)
Providence +1,400 (11-1 SU/8-4 ATS)
St. John’s +1,800 (8-3 SU/4-7 ATS)

This year’s Creighton team isn’t built like the perimeter-oriented squads of seasons past, when the Bluejays routinely bludgeoned opponents with a barrage of three-pointers. Within Big East circles, Creighton ranks dead-last in three-pointers made (6.3 per game) and three-point proficiency (31.1 percent).

And despite their 20-point beat-down of Villanova in Omaha on Dec. 17, the Bluejays’ typically stout home-court advantage also has been demystified a bit. Creighton fell to visiting Arizona State and No. 8 Iowa State (12-0 overall) during the non-conference campaign.

Among the teams in this group, Providence might offer the best betting value. At No. 21, the Friars are currently the Big East’s second-highest-ranked team, and they possess the best conference road win to date — on Dec. 18, they upended Connecticut 57-53 in Hartford. Providence also has three other impressive victories on its ledger, knocking off Wisconsin (road), Northwestern (neutral site), and Texas Tech (home) — all as an underdog.

From a logistical standpoint, St. John’s might have drawn the proverbial short straw among Big East title hopefuls. Four of the Red Storm’s league matchups — Seton Hall, Butler, Marquette, and Georgetown — were either postponed or temporarily canceled because of COVID issues. If those games get made up, the Red Storm could be routinely operating on short rest during January and February.

Such quick turnarounds could make for a brutal closing stretch that already has St. John’s scheduled to take on Creighton (twice), Villanova (twice), Xavier (twice), Seton Hall, UConn, and Providence nine times in its final 12 regular-season outings.

The Long Shots

Butler +3,500 (7-4 SU/3-8 ATS)
Marquette +3,500 (8-5 SU/6-7 ATS)
DePaul +6,000 (9-1 SU/8-2 ATS)
Georgetown +15,000 (6-5 SU/5-6 ATS)

Butler ranks 318th in scoring offense (out of 350 schools), averaging just 63.4 points per game. That’s not going to cut it when the Bulldogs have to face seven Big East schools (St. John’s, DePaul, Seton Hall, UConn, Georgetown, and Xavier) averaging more than 75 points per game. And while Butler does own a surprising upset at Oklahoma, it also gotten trampled by the likes of Michigan State (73-52, Houston (70-52), and Purdue (77-48). Throw in a seven-point loss to Texas A&M, and the Bulldogs are 1-4 SU and ATS against top-flight competition.

Marquette warrants kudos for enduring a top-20 schedule before the new year. The Golden Eagles scored upset victories over Illinois (home), Ole Miss (road), West Virginia (road), and Kansas State (road), but fell to St. Bonaventure, No. 24 Wisconsin, No. 23 Xavier, Connecticut, and No. 5 UCLA. That’s a solid start, considering new head coach Shaka Smart has been implementing his system on the fly, while readying Marquette (8-11 in league play last year) for a run at the Big East’s upper division.

Non-conference wins over Rutgers (73-70) and Louisville (62-55) suggest DePaul’s 9-1 start may not be a fluke. However, it’ll be interesting to see how quickly the Blue Demons can reclaim their mojo after having crucial clashes with Northwestern (road) and No. 15 Seton Hall (original Big East opener) canceled or postponed due to COVID outbreaks. If the Blue Demons play Butler on Wednesday, it’ll mark a 15-day gap between games.

Georgetown’s super-long odds for winning the Big East are tough to fathom. The Hoyas boast four double-digit scorers (Aminu Mohammed, Kaiden Rice, Donald Carey, and Dante Harris). Among that quartet, Mohammed (averaging 14.6 points, 8.7 rebounds) has the capacity to carry Georgetown in bursts down the stretch. Throw in a solid non-conference schedule that includes respectable defeats to San Diego State (73-56), St. Joseph’s (77-74), South Carolina (80-67), and TCU (80-73), and one program-defining win over longtime rival Syracuse (79-75), and the Hoyas certainly don’t look like a Big East pushover.

The post College Basketball Betting: Big East Conference Preview appeared first on Props.

Is the SEC, from top to bottom, the best conference in college basketball this season? If you use national rankings as your barometer, the answer would appear to be “yes” — at least at the moment.

This week, five SEC schools appear in The Associated Press Top 20 — Alabama (10th), Auburn (12th), LSU (17th), Tennessee (19th), and Kentucky (20th). That’s more than any other league.

The SEC is also home to Jabari Smith, an Auburn freshman whose 6-foot-10 frame and deft shooting touch evokes thoughts of Kevin Durant. Smith is among those in the running to be the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NBA draft.

On top of that, two of the SEC’s prospective have-nots (Georgia and Ole Miss) have already scored upset victories over previously ranked Memphis — the same Memphis that shocked Alabama last week.

Props.com evaluates the SEC championship odds for league’s programs. If the oddsmakers are correct, there could be a return to glory in the Bluegrass State.

SEC odds via DraftKings and updated as of 5 p.m. ET Dec. 21. All SU and ATS record current as of date of publication.

Previous Conference Previews

Big Ten
ACC

SEC Basketball Odds

The Favorites

Kentucky +260 (8-2 SU/4-6 ATS)
Alabama + 320 (9-2 SU/6-5 ATS)

Kentucky is fifth in the pecking order of SEC teams in this week’s Top 25 poll. The Wildcats also rank 13th in league in three-pointers made (6.0 per game). Yet John Calipari’s squad is the clear favorite on the SEC championship odds board.

As usual, Calipari has assembled a group of blue-chip recruits and top-notch transfers. The latter includes Oscar Tshiebwe, who’s averaging 16.3 points and 14.3 rebounds per game after posting modest numbers during his time at West Virginia.

And while the Wildcats have struggled to make shots from long range, they’re having little trouble putting the ball through the hoop otherwise. They’re averaging 82.1 points per game, which ranks second to Alabama (83.4 ppg) among SEC schools.

Kentucky’s stifling defense has been equally as impressive. Since starting the season with a 79-71 loss to Duke, the Wildcats have held nine consecutive opponents under 70 points. The team’s offensive and defensive talent was on full display Saturday in Las Vegas, where Kentucky thumped North Carolina 98-69 as a 3-point, neutral-site favorite.

Speaking of impressive victories, Alabama might have the best back-to-back triumphs of the season. On a mostly partisan floor in Seattle on Dec. 4, the Crimson Tide stunned preseason No. 1 Gonzaga, 91-82 as a 9.5-point underdog. Seven days later, Alabama eked out an 83-82 home victory over Houston, a Final Four team from last season.

Last year, Alabama made a surprising run to the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 before bowing out to eventual Final Four entrant UCLA in overtime. The Crimson Tide appear to have the talent to make another deep March run this season — and we’ll learn about their championship makeup from Jan. 29-Feb. 5. During that weeklong stretch, Alabama will face current No. 1 Baylor in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge, then meet Auburn (road) and Kentucky (home).

The Challengers

Tennessee +600 (8-2 SU/6-4 ATS)
Arkansas +650 (9-2 SU/5-6 ATS)
Auburn +800 (10-1 SU/7-4 ATS
Florida +900 (8-3 SU/6-5 ATS)
LSU +900 (11-0 SU/9-2 ATS)

Tennessee has the toughest opening road slate of any SEC team, trekking to Alabama, LSU, and Kentucky in the first 17 days of league play. The rest of the schedule breaks nicely for the Vols, who’ll get two cracks apiece at prospective bottom-feeders South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

Arkansas has the SEC’s most prolific scorer in JD Notae (18.3 points per game), a solid starting five, and a strong tactician in head coach Eric Musselman. However, it’s a tough team to project, considering the Hogs raced out to a 9-0 start, then suffered back-to-back losses to Oklahoma (88-66) and Hofstra (89-81). And Arkansas is still searching for its first signature victory — unless you count Kansas State as “signature.”

The NCAA recently hit Auburn with four years of probation, but that discipline won’t impact the Tigers’ pursuit of the SEC regular-season title (and maybe even a Final Four run). Auburn’s conference championship/March Madness hope likely will hinge on the continued improvement of stud freshman Jabari Smith. Not only is Smith averaging 16.5 points and 6.9 rebounds, but he’s shooting a blistering 45.6-percent from three-point range. He’s a big reason why the Tigers rank third in the SEC in scoring offense (82.0 points per game) and first in made three-pointers (9.7 triples per game).

Florida has won nine-plus SEC games in six consecutive seasons. However, this consistency hasn’t meant much come March. (During this stretch, the Gators have gotten past Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament just once, reaching the regional final in 2017.) Will this year be any different? Recent results would suggest no, as Florida has followed a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS start by dropping five of its last seven (1-6 ATS). That includes a stupefying 69-54 loss to Texas Southern as a 23.5-point home favorite.

Undefeated LSU ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring defense (53.5 points per game), No. 6 in SEC scoring offense (78.5 ppg), and is 9-2 ATS through 11 games. Of course, the Tigers haven’t exactly faced a juggernaut early-season schedule (top opponents to date: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Penn State). So is LSU for real? We’ll find out very quickly, as it opens the SEC campaign with consecutive games against Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee (twice), Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama.

The Dark Horses

Mississippi State +2,000 (8-3 SU/5-6 ATS)
Ole Miss +3,000 (8-3 SU/5-6 ATS)

Don’t fall asleep on Mississippi State making a push for the SEC crown. Five Bulldogs starters average double-digit scoring; Michigan State transfer Rocket Watts adds explosive depth to the bench; and MSU fell to Minnesota (81-76) and Colorado State (66-63) — two of college basketball’s biggest early surprises — by a grand total of eight points.

Like its in-state rival, Ole Miss is off to a solid start and could be in the running for an NCAA Tournament bid if it repeats last year’s 10-8 SEC record. The Rebels have one marquee victory on their ledger (a 67-63 win over then-No. 18 Memphis on Dec. 4). And their three losses to Marquette, Boise State, and Western Kentucky will be viewed as “quality defeats” if all three programs reach the NCAAs. That said, Ole Miss doesn’t appear to have the talent and depth needed to keep up with the SEC’s big boys.

The Long Shots

Texas A&M +5,500 (8-2 SU/6-4 ATS)
Missouri +6,000 (6-5 SU/4-6 ATS)
South Carolina +6,000 (8-3 SU/5-5 ATS)
Vanderbilt +7,000 (6-4 SU/5-5 ATS)
Georgia +40,000 (5-6 SU/3-7-1 ATS)

Texas A&M is the most likely candidate to earn a promotion to the “Dark Horses” category. But it’s also difficult to view the Aggies as surprise contenders, given their light non-conference schedule (best loss: Wisconsin; best win: Notre Dame) — not to mention last season’s 2-8 record in league play.

The schedule-maker has seemingly given Missouri a reprieve, as the Tigers face just one currently ranked team twice in league play (No. 10 Alabama). But it’s still a daunting docket, with Mizzou drawing Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU in mini-bunches. Also worth nothing: The Tigers have matched up against just one ranked foe to date. Result: 102-65 loss to No. 8 Kansas.

South Carolina has three solid non-conference victories on its résumé (Florida State, Georgetown, and Western Kentucky). Can the Gamecocks find similar success in league play … playing a schedule that includes Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee in the first two weeks? If South Carolina can emerge from that start at least 2-2, it might be a team worth monitoring.

Vanderbilt has been stuck in a 3-15 cycle the last two SEC seasons, and this year looks to be more of the same. The Commodores ranks 227th nationally in scoring offense — punctuated by a 37-point “effort” in a Nov. 17 loss to VCU.

Georgia is the longest of long shots to win the SEC title for two primary reasons: The Dawgs are going through a major rebuild, and they’re the only team in the league with a losing record in non-conference action. There’s a reason why Georgia’s spring football practices garner more attention in Athens than the hoops team.

The post College Basketball Betting: Southeastern Conference Preview appeared first on Props.

If you judge a conference by its number of NCAA Tournament appearances, it’s pretty easy to make a case for the ACC being the best league in the land.

Over the past four seasons (2017-19, 2021), the ACC has garnered 32 bids to the Big Dance — four more than the Big Ten over the same period. And since 2015, three ACC schools (Duke in 2015, North Carolina in 2017, Virginia in 2019) have captured an NCAA championship.

Can this storied conference maintain its dominance, now that two of the sport’s blue bloods — North Carolina and Duke — are undergoing radical leadership changes (UNC coach Roy Williams retired last spring; Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is retiring at season’s end)?

Props.com evaluates the college basketball conference championship odds for all 15 ACC programs, including Notre Dame. If the oddsmakers are correct, this could be a glorious farewell campaign for Coach K.

ACC odds via DraftKings and updated as of 5 p.m. ET Dec. 14. All SU and ATS record current as of date of publication.

PREVIOUS CONFERENCE PREVIEWS
Big Ten

ACC Basketball Odds

The Favorite

Duke +120 (Current record: 7-1 SU/3-3-2 ATS)

The Blue Devils, who tripped Kentucky and Gonzaga on neutral courts in November, have a great playmaking quintet in freshman Paolo Banchero (averaging 17.8 points/7.3 rebounds per game; potential No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA draft), Wendell Moore (17.8 points/6.5 rebounds), Mark Williams, Jeremy Roach, and freshman guard Trevor Keels.

This Duke squad plays faster (17th nationally in scoring offense, 83.1 points per game) and looks more imposing than last year’s team. But it’s not a vintage Coach K group in this regard: The Blue Devils aren’t oozing with supreme depth or veteran experience.

Such drawbacks might not preclude Duke from winning the ACC, but it could be a hindrance come NCAA Tournament time — especially if the Blue Devils encounter Baylor, Purdue, UCLA, Kansas, Alabama, or a rematch with Gonzaga.

The Challengers

North Carolina +600 (7-2 SU/2-7 ATS)
Louisville +800 (6-3 SU/4-5 ATS)
Florida State +1,000 (5-4 SU/3-6 ATS)
Virginia Tech +1,000 (7-4 SU/7-4 ATS)

North Carolina has a top-three ACC ranking in every major offensive category: second in scoring offense (81.1 points per game), and third in field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free-throw percentage. The Tar Heels are only 1-2 against ranked opponents, but six of their seven victories have been double-digit routs.

Schedule-wise, North Carolina hosts Virginia, Louisville, and Syracuse but only returns the favor (among the trio) with a visit to Louisville.

The Cardinals deserve props for facing five consecutive power-conference teams in November/December. They defeated Mississippi State (72-58), Maryland (63-55), and NC State (73-68), but fell to Michigan State (73-64) and DePaul (62-55). That aside, Louisville doesn’t appear to have enough star power or depth to credibly challenge for the conference crown. Offense is also a concern: Among ACC teams, the Cardinals rank 14th in three-point proficiency (29.3 percent) and last in field-goal shooting (40.8 percent).

Florida State (0-1 in league play) has an exemplary ACC record over three-plus years (40-14). But something seems amiss with this year’s Seminoles, who failed to score more than 65 points in losses to Florida, No. 2 Purdue, Syracuse, and South Carolina. Keep in mind: Syracuse has a defensive rating of 329th overall … out of 358 schools.

Virginia Tech got pummeled 80-61 by Wake Forest in its ACC opener, part of an ongoing 2-4 SU and ATS slump. Now for the good news: The Hokies own top-four conference rankings in three-pointers made per game (8.6) and three-point proficiency (39.3 percent). They’ll need to maintain those stats — and play better defense than they did against Wake Forest — to make a legit run for the conference title.

The Dark Horses

Virginia +1,400 (6-4 SU/3-7 ATS)
Syracuse +2,000 (5-5 SU/4-6 ATS)

It’s easy to forget Virginia (1-0 in ACC) claimed last year’s regular-season title (13-4) but never got a genuine opportunity to win the conference tournament because of COVID-protocol breakdowns. This year, however, the Cavaliers rank 11th in steals per game (5.7), 12th in field-goal proficiency (43.3 percent), 13th in three-point shooting (30.3 percent), 14th in scoring offense (61.0 points per game), and 14th in total rebounds (32.3 per game). That’s not an ideal recipe for repeating as league champs.

By one particular measure, Syracuse has played the nation’s 22nd-toughest schedule to this point. That seems low, considering the Orange recently encountered seven consecutive brand-name opponents: VCU (67-55 loss), Arizona State (92-84 victory), Auburn (89-68 loss), Indiana (112-110 double-overtime win), Florida State (63-60 loss), No. 6 Villanova (67-53 loss), and Georgetown (79-75 loss).

Will this November/December grind pay off down the line for Jim Boheim’s crew? Perhaps. Then again, the Orange face a gauntlet from Jan. 22-Feb.28 that includes two games against Duke, as well as trips to Pitt, North Carolina State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and North Carolina — plus a home date with Louisville.

The Long Shots

Wake Forest +3,500 (9-1 SU/7-3 ATS)
Notre Dame +3,500 (4-4 SU/2-6 ATS)
Georgia Tech +4,000 (5-4 SU/2-7 ATS)
North Carolina State +4,000 (7-3 SU/2-8 ATS)
Clemson +5,000 (6-4 SU/5-4-1 ATS)
Miami +6,000 (8-3 SU/4-7 ATS)
Pittsburgh +10,000 (3-7 SU/5-5 ATS)
Boston College +20,000 (6-5 SU/5-6 ATS)

Wake Forest has the ACC’s No. 2 scoring offense, the league’s most overall wins (nine), and the conference’s best ATS mark, including that thorough 80-61 road rout of Virginia Tech as an 8.5-point favorite. In time, the Demon Deacons might warrant a promotion to the “dark horses” category — if they survive a mid-January to mid-February stretch when they play six of nine league games on the road.

Notre Dame has suffered single-digit losses to Saint Mary’s, Texas A&M, and Illinois, then upended No. 10 Kentucky last Saturday night. In other words, this has the look of a typical Fighting Irish season (several narrow head-scratching defeats and the occasional upset of a blueblood program).

Three straight power-conference losses to Wisconsin (70-66), North Carolina (79-62), and LSU (69-53) have dulled the hue of last season’s ACC tourney title for Georgia Tech. However, after Saturday’s neutral-site bout with No. 10 USC, the Yellow Jackets have just one currently ranked foe on their remaining schedule (No. 2 Duke on Jan. 4).

Last Sunday, NC State squandered a double-digit lead against then-top-ranked Purdue, losing 82-72 in overtime. On the plus side, other than a trip to Duke in mid-January, the Wolfpack might not encounter another squad of Purdue’s caliber all season.

Clemson definitely will have a chance to prove its worth, as it hosts North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State at Littlejohn Coliseum this year. That’s three résumé-building opportunities for a Tigers team that won six of its final seven ACC games last regular season.

Miami (1-0 in league play) has a 16-41 ACC record over the last three full seasons. Will new Hurricanes athletic director Dan Radakovich (formerly Clemson’s AD) be making another high-profile hire next spring (after signed Oregon’s Mario Cristobal last week to take over the football program last week)?

Pittsburgh’s ACC-title hopes likely ended with the season-opening 78-63 home loss to The Citadel. Or was it subsequent deflating defeats — at home — to Maryland-Baltimore County and Monmouth?

Boston College’s resounding 73-57 victory over Notre Dame on Dec. 3 must have been a sweet response to those forecasting doom and gloom for the Eagles this season. Just try not to pay too much attention to B.C.’s listless home loss to Albany on Monday.

The post College Basketball Betting: Atlantic Coast Conference Preview appeared first on Props.

Big Ten basketball will return to its pre-pandemic format of 20 conference games per member this season, a marathon slate that will surely separate the lot of contenders, pretenders, and cellar-dwellers by the time March rolls around.

And if recent history tells us anything, the Big Ten conference betting market figures to be flooded with money on Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue to win the championship. That’s because those six schools have claimed either a full or partial share of every Big Ten regular-season title since 2006.

Props.com launches the first of multiple college basketball conference betting previews with a look at the Big Ten — a league that currently boasts the nation’s No. 1 team … but hasn’t produced an NCAA Tournament champion since Michigan State cut down the nets in 2000.

Big Ten odds via BetMGM and updated as of 5 p.m. ET Dec. 7.

Big Ten Conference Basketball Odds

The Favorite

Purdue +150 (Current record: 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS)

The Boilermakers (1-0 in Big Ten play) are enjoying their first week as the No. 1 team in The Associated Press Top 25 poll. And there’s a good chance they’ll remain in the top spot well into the new year, since Purdue (4th nationally in scoring offense at 90.5 points per game; No. 6 nationally in scoring margin) won’t encounter another ranked team until Jan. 3 (at No. 22 Wisconsin).

Purdue boasts three legitimate candidates for Big Ten Player of the Year (guard Jaden Ivey, center Zach Edey, and forward Trevion Williams), and perhaps the league’s most lethal perimeter threat in Sasha Stefanovic (46-percent shooting from beyond the arc).

The Challengers

Michigan +400 (6-3 SU/4-5 ATS)
Ohio State +600 (6-2 SU/4-4 ATS)
Illinois +600 (7-2 SU/4-5 ATS)

Michigan was ranked as high as No. 4 in mid-November. Then came a series of deflating losses to Seton Hall (67-65), Arizona (80-62), and North Carolina (72-51) that tempered expectations. And prior to Tuesday’s 102-point explosion at Nebraska, which included 15 made three-pointers, the Wolverines (1-0 in league) ranked among the Big Ten’s bottom five in scoring offense, three-point proficiency, and free-throw shooting. For Michigan’s sake, Tuesday’s breakout must become the new normal.

Ohio State (1-0 in league play) has the best résumé-building win of any Big Ten team in the early going, upending then-No. 1 Duke 71-66 last week. The Buckeyes also boast a bankable star in forward E.J. Liddell, who’s averaging 20.4 points and 7.0 rebounds. Liddell is a big reason why Ohio State has gone Over the total in seven of its last eight games.

Illinois is off to a 2-0 start in conference, suggesting the Fighting Illini will soon re-enter the AP Top 25. With four all-conference candidates in Jacob Grandison, Trent Frazier, Alfonso Plummer, and center Kofi Cockburn — who amassed 17 points and 18 rebounds in Monday’s 87-83 road victory over Iowa — Illinois’ Big Ten championship betting odds might be at peak value right now.

The Dark Horses

Michigan State +800 (7-2 SU/5-4 ATS)
Indiana +1,200 (7-1 SU/5-3 ATS)
Iowa +2,000 (7-2 SU/6-3 ATS)
Wisconsin +2,000 (7-1 SU/6-2 ATS)
Maryland +2,500 (5-4 SU/2-7 ATS)

Michigan State likely doesn’t have the requisite star power to outlast the Big Ten’s biggest and deepest squads that reside in the previous two sections. However, the Spartans do have a scheduling advantage: They face No. 1 Purdue, No. 21 Ohio State, and Iowa once during the regular season. Tom Izzo’s troops also get two cracks apiece at Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota, and Maryland. To pull off a surprising league title, MSU probably would have to go 7-1 or 8-0 against the latter group of foes.

Indiana is averaging 80.4 points per game), having tallied 70-plus points in seven of its first eight contests. The Hoosiers also have a formidable 1-2 punch in Trayce Jackson-Davis (21.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.8 blocks per game) and Race Thompson (10.0 points, 8.9 boards per game). So Indiana figures to rebound nicely from last year’s disappointing campaign (12-15 overall; 7-12 Big Ten). But do the Hoosiers have enough firepower to compete with the league’s upper-echelon teams? Doubtful.

Iowa, which finished last season ranked fifth nationally in scoring offense, has picked up right where it left off: The Hawkeyes currently are fifth once again (90.1 points per game). In addition to a strong 6-3 ATS start, Iowa has topped the total in four of its last six outings. However, the Hawkeyes (0-2 start in Big Ten) cannot afford many future slipups if they expect to contend for the league title like they did in 2020-21 (14-6, third-place finish). During the most recent 20-game Big Ten campaigns (2018-19 and 2019-20), the Big Ten champion averaged 15 league victories.

Wisconsin is currently riding a five-game wining streak that includes victories over a Final Four team from last year (No. 12 Houston, 65-63) and three Power 5 schools (Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, and Marquette). Along the way, the Badgers captured their first-ever Maui Invitational title. Not bad for a team that seemingly had little quality talent beyond Jonathan Davis (averaging 20.1 points, 5.6 rebounds) and Brad Davison (15.9 points, 4.5 rebounds per game).

Maryland’s already-long conference-title odds might soon be getting longer. Head coach Mark Turgeon resigned last week (with Danny Manning taking over in the interim). Turgeon’s departure came in the wake of the Terrapins dropping three straight games, including Sunday’s 67-61 home loss to Northwestern in the Big Ten opener.

The Long Shots

Rutgers +4,000 (4-4 SU/1-6-1 ATS)
Northwestern +6,600 (6-2 SU/5-3 ATS)
Penn State +10,000 (4-4 SU/2-6 ATS)
Minnesota +15,000 (7-0 SU/5-2 ATS)
Nebraska +15,000 (5-5 SU/4-6 ATS)

Rutgers has been a big disappointment on the scoreboard and at the betting window, suffering consecutive losses to DePaul, Lafayette, and Massachusetts in November. Those setbacks were followed by Friday’s 35-point loss at Illinois in the Scarlet Knights’ conference opener.

Conversely, undefeated 7-0 Minnesota has been an early surprise, posting three true road wins over Princeton (87-80, 2 OTs), Pittsburgh (54-53), and Mississippi State (81-76). The Golden Gophers, under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, also warrant kudos for winning both high- and low-scoring games. Minnesota has scored 54, 55, 71, 73, 78, 81, 84, and 87 points in its seven wins.

Northwestern (1-0 in Big Ten) has a 2-2 mark against Power 5 teams (including wins over Georgia and Maryland), fueling hopes of the Wildcats’ first winning season since 2017 (the only time school history the program made the NCAA Tournament). Penn State (0-1 Big Ten) has a lengthy rebuild under first-year head coach Micah Shrewberry. But here’s one scheduling positive: Of the four Big Ten opponents currently ranked in the AP Top 25, the Nittany Lions will encounter only Michigan State twice this season.

Nebraska’s title odds will become longer with each passing week. The Cornhuskers’ upcoming slate includes No. 21 Ohio State, No. 19 Michigan State, Illinois, and top-ranked Purdue. A Nebraska victory in any of those games would be a major upset.

The post College Basketball Betting: Big Ten Conference Preview appeared first on Props.

Looking for unique ways to get involved in the NFL betting market? You’ve come to the right place. Recently, we chronicled the Arizona Cardinals’ odds of potentially going 17-0, along with the rebuilding Detroit Lions’ prospects of finishing 0-17.

Well, 24 hours after examining the Cardinals’ chance of going undefeated, Arizona went out and suffered its first loss to the Green Bay Parkers. Then last week, the Lions, uh, improved to 0-8-1 with a 16-16 tie at Pittsburgh — and, thus, Detroit no longer has to worry about finishing 0-17.

While the Lions remain the only team without a victory, they’re not the only squad slogging through a lost season. Three AFC teams — the Texans (1-8), Jaguars (2-7), and Jets (2-7) — aren’t that far ahead of Detroit.

Which of those four will end the season with the fewest victories? Let’s see what a couple of sportsbooks think.

Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel, and updated as of 1 p.m. ET Nov 18.

Detroit Lions (0-8-1)

DraftKings: -200
FanDuel: -190

Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells once famously quipped, “You are what your record says.” In the Lions’ case, though, that might not be entirely accurate.

During its season-opening eight-game losing skid, Detroit held second-half leads against Green Bay, Baltimore, Minnesota, and the Los Angeles Rams — all viable playoff contenders. And if not for a 66-yard field by the Ravens in Week 3 and a 54-yard field goal by the Vikings in Week 5 — both on the final play — the Lions would already have two victories.

Then last week, the Lions’ young running back triumvirate of D’Andre Swift, Jermar Jefferson, and Godwin Igwebuike collectively rushed for 229 yards and two touchdowns. That was against a Steelers defense that had surrendered just two rushing scores in its previous eight games.

So unlike the next team on this list, Detroit has been competitive in several of its games. If that continues, the Lions will have a decent shot at picking up victories down the stretch against the Bears (home), Vikings (home), Broncos (road), Falcons (road), and Seahawks (road). Even a win over the Packers in the season finale could be possible — if Green Bay has already clinched its playoff seeding and rests it starters.

Heck, don’t discount the possibility of Detroit picking up its first victory this week against the banged-up Browns. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in five of its last seven games.

Houston Texans (1-8)

DraftKings: +250
FanDuel: +200

Remember the Texans’ 37-point explosion against the Jaguars in Week 1, a shockingly thorough victory that ruined a flood of “survivor” pools on the NFL’s opening weekend? That might as well have happened a decade ago.

Since the opener, Houston’s porous offense has averaged only 11.4 points per game. The result of that ineptness: eight consecutive losses, including six by double-digit margins.

The remaining schedule contains more than a few potential blowouts (Colts, Chargers, Titans twice), along with struggling clubs that are on the mend at quarterback (Seahawks, 49ers).

The Texans’ only two winnable games — on paper, anyway — are in Week 12 (Jets at home) and Week 15 (Jaguars on the road). For what it’s worth, The SuperBook has the Texans as a 2.5-point favorite over the Jets next week on its lookahead line.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)

DraftKings: +2200
FanDuel: +1800

It’s been a harrowing season for Jaguars “rookie” head coach Urban Meyer, transitioning from his dominant days of college football to the dog-eat-dog world of the NFL.

However, things are slowly turning around for Jacksonville, which has either owned a fourth-quarter lead or trailed by no more than five points late in five of its last seven games.

Plus, the Jaguars’ defense has surrendered 23 points or fewer in three of the last four games. That includes holding the high-octane Bills to six points in Week 9.

Jacksonville has three subpar opponents left on its schedule (Atlanta, Houston, N.Y. Jets). There’s also this week’s home clash versus San Francisco — a schizophrenic club that tends to play up or down to its competition.

New York Jets (2-7)

DraftKings: +2200
FanDuel: +1800

The Jets recently became the first NFL team in decades to surrender 45 or more points three times in a four-game span.

New York has also been working through a revolving door of mediocre backup quarterbacks (Mike White, Joe Flacco) while waiting for rookie Zach Wilson to return from a knee injury.

On the positive front, the Jets already have two victories against playoff-contending clubs (Titans, Bengals). And New York has the league’s easiest schedule in Weeks 11-16, when it encounters five teams with a combined record of 15-32 (including the 3-7 Dolphins twice).

If they can get some consistent quarterback play, the Jets could reasonably finish with 4-6 victories. That would be bad enough to secure a top-five pick in next year’s draft — but good enough to avoid being the team that “wins” this prop.

The post NFL Betting: Still-Winless Lions The Oddsmakers’ Pick For Fewest Victories appeared first on Props.

The 2.0 version of the 2021 College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and per usual, the playoff committee’s rankings don’t exactly align with the perceptions of oddsmakers, let alone those who vote in the Associated Press Top 25 poll.

With a full month to go before “Selection Sunday” on Dec. 5, so much can (and will) change among the top four. Well, maybe three of the four, since the school sitting atop both the CFP rankings/CFP odds board appears to be a lock for either the Cotton Bowl or Orange Bowl on Dec. 31.

Let’s break down the latest College Football Playoff odds heading into Week 11.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel and updated as of 12 noon ET on Nov. 10.

Georgia Bulldogs

Record: 9-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
AP Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -2400/No +1800

Remember the old days — you know, like 2020 — when big, bad Alabama could shake off an early deficit and cruise to a drama-free victory of 25 points or more?

Well, now Georgia has entered that same realm of dominance. For instance, last week the undefeated Bulldogs took the field as a 40-point favorite against Missouri and quickly spotted the Tigers an early 3-0 lead that held up for nearly the entire first quarter. Rather than panic, though, Georgia buckled down, went to work dissecting the Tigers, and rolled to a 43-6 victory.

The Dawgs continue to boast the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (6.56 points allowed per game), the No. 2 total defense (allowing 213.8 yards per game), and an offense that has averaged 42 points per game since Week 2. In short, Georgia is fielding as complete a team as SEC rival Alabama did on its way to winning last year’s national championship.

Which is bad news for the three teams remaining on the Bulldogs’ regular-season schedule: Tennessee on the road (5-4, 3-3 in SEC), FCS fodder Charleston Southern at home (2-4 overall), and Georgia Tech (2-5 overall) on the road. All three obviously will be massive underdogs when they face Georgia. Assuming none of those underdogs pull off a historic upset, the Bulldogs will have their CFP ticket punched — no matter what happens in the SEC championship game.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 8-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 2nd (last week: 2nd)
AP Ranking: 3rd (last week: 3rd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -112/No -112

FanDuel has Alabama (5-1 in SEC) as a tossup to reach the four-team playoff, despite the Crimson Tide’s top-3 rankings with the CFP (No. 2) and Associated Press (No. 3) polls. Here’s what those 50-50 College Football Playoff odds tell us: Oddsmakers are confident that Alabama cannot make the CFP without beating Georgia in the presumptive SEC championship game matchup.

Makes sense, because as we’ve stated numerous times, no two-loss program has reached the playoff in the event’s seven-year history. As such, Alabama has zero margin of error as it hits the home stretch with games against New Mexico State (Independent), Arkansas (No. 25 in CFP poll), and rival No. 17 Auburn (Nov. 27).

First, the Crimson Tide need victories in the latter two contests just to clinch a berth in the SEC title game. And if they get those victories, they then need to knock off Georgia to earn the opportunity to defend their title. And judging by Alabama’s current pick ’em College Football Playoff odds at FanDuel, it’s pretty clear oddsmakers favor the Bulldogs in a Georgia-Bama showdown.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 7-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 4th (last week: 5th)
AP Ranking: 6th (last week: 6th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -182/No +142

Ohio State’s uncomfortably close 26-17 road victory over Nebraska last week didn’t affect much on the national landscape, outside of dropping OSU’s scoring average fractionally below 45 points per game.

The Buckeyes still have a clear path to the playoff semifinals. They just have to sweep their remaining regular-season slate of Purdue (No. 19 in CFP poll), Michigan State (No. 7 CFP), and Michigan (No. 6 CFP), then take care of business in the Big Ten title game (Dec. 4 in Indianapolis).

Pull that off, and Ohio State wouldn’t require any outside help to snatch a Playoff invite — most likely as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. That’s because of the overall strength of the Big Ten (six teams in this week’s CFP top 20), which of course boosts the Buckeyes’ strength-of-schedule rating.

Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 9-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 8th (last week: 8th)
AP Ranking: 4th (last week: 4th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -174/No +136

The biggest so-called “loser” of Tuesday night’s CFP rankings release wasn’t Michigan State, which plunged four spots to No. 7 after last week’s loss to Purdue. Rather, it was Oklahoma, which is still slotted at No. 8, behind five one-loss clubs (No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Oregon, No. 4 Ohio State, No. 6 Michigan, and No. 7 Michigan State).

Is the CFP committee already signaling that if Oklahoma were to go 13-0 and win the Big 12 championship game that the Sooners would fail to crack the top four, assuming No. 5-ranked Cincinnati and a collection of those aforementioned one-loss teams win out?

Certainly, bookmakers don’t believe that to be a possibility, given the fact they currently have Oklahoma with the third-best College Football Playoff odds (behind Georgia and Ohio State).

This much is known: Like everyone on this list but Georgia, the Sooners cannot afford to slip up. That won’t be easy, though, as Oklahoma has a heavily back-loaded schedule that starts Saturday with Baylor (No. 13 in CFP poll), followed by Iowa State and Oklahoma State (No. 10 CFP). Make it through that gauntlet and the Sooners would have to face one of those squads again in the Big 12 title game.

Win that game, and the Sooners would be a shoo-in for the CFP, right? Not necessarily. The schedules of the Big Ten’s powers (Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan) are also back-loaded for maximum November impact. Which is why if Ohio State wins out, its profile will rise considerably.

In other words, even though oddsmakers like Oklahoma’s playoff chances at the moment, the reality is there’s a good chance the Sooners could become the first-ever undefeated Power 5 conference champion to miss out on the four-team playoff.

Oregon Ducks

Record: 8-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 3rd (last week: 4th)
AP Ranking: 5th (last week: 7th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +225/No -310

Oregon’s No. 3 CFP ranking factors in the Ducks’ résumé-topping road win over Ohio State back in Week 2, their come-from-ahead defeat to Stanford in Week 5, and last week’s rain-soaked road victory over Washington.

However, that ranking hasn’t yet accounted for Oregon potentially claiming the Pac-12 title in December — a feat that would seemingly clinch the Ducks’ playoff invitation without the need for outside assistance.

Then again, Oregon’s playoff odds are significantly longer than No. 8 Oklahoma’s. That means oddsmakers believe the selection committee ultimately would vault an undefeated Big 12 champion Oklahoma — which this week is five spots behind the Ducks in the CFP rankings — over a one-loss Pac-12 champion Oregon.

Then there’s this: Ohio State right now is a solid favorite to make the Playoff, while the Ducks are a decided underdog. Thus, those same oddsmakers also believe the committee, if it comes down to it, will disregard Oregon’s win at Ohio State and take the one-loss Buckeyes over the one-loss Ducks.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Record: 9-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 5th (last week: 6th)
AP Ranking: 2nd (last week: 2nd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +350/No -550

Cincinnati fans can delude themselves into believing all the No. 5 Bearcats need to do to snag a College Football Playoff slot is win out and hope for one more upset loss by a Power 5 team. But we all know how things would play out in the event of Oklahoma, Oregon, and either Ohio State/Michigan State/Michigan finish as zero- or one-loss champions of the Big 12, Pac-12, and Big Ten, respectively.

Those champs almost certainly will possess more playoff cachet than Cincinnati when comparing overall and conference strength of schedules.

And frankly, that’s a raw deal for the undefeated Bearcats, who have a signature road victory in their back pocket (at Notre Dame). Essentially, Cincinnati is being doubly penalized for playing in an inferior conference (American Athletic) and not having the foresight to — insert sarcasm here — schedule two road games against the Fighting Irish.

The post College Football Playoff Odds: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State Control Destiny appeared first on Props.