The idea was to test out his company’s new oddsmaking product with a small offshore operator. Better yet, they’d run the test right when sports came back from their COVID pause in July 2020. 

A soft launch at a lesser-known book at a strange time. Maybe any rough edges would slip under the radar of aggressive, big-money bettors.

“We picked an operator we thought was out of the way and would be forgiving of mistakes and bugs,” Ed Miller said. “What I’ll tell you is that there are people looking to shove mistakes down your throat. We had some hard lessons.”

Lessons: learned. Ruthlessness: noted. 

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Refining In-Play Odds

The product in question, DeckPrism, originally was designed for players; a new tool to help them beat the books on live betting. But when the PASPA decision came down in 2018 and it became clear what sports betting in the United States was going to look like, DeckPrism repositioned as a software and managed trading service for operators. Oh, good. The books needed more weapons.  

The software, now known as Huddle Tech, is being used by some of the biggest players in the game, including the offshore giant Pinnacle and Circa Sports in Colorado. 

And while he might be working on the dark side of the counter, Miller, Huddle’s vice president of innovation, wrote the book The Logic of Sports Betting. He knows what it’s like to be one of us. He says on the off chance you’re into winning money betting on sports, live betting is wide open, wildly underused, and stuffed with rich, untapped veins just waiting for you to come mine for gold. (We’re not saying you have to dress like an old-timey cartoon prospector to do it, but we’re not not saying that either.)

The Power of Live Betting

“(Live betting) is so much a harder problem for sportsbooks that it’s 100 percent more profitable (than pregame),” Miller said. “There’s so much value to be gained by just watching the darn game. Where casual bettors trip themselves up is they say, ‘Oh, you’re up by two scores. How could they only be minus-13?’ 

“No, no. You’re wrong. Nerds like me come up with minus-13 with data. The right idea is to say, ‘Hey, what is my advantage? My advantage is I’ve got two eyes on this game and I can react faster. I can interpret information that’s not in the data and I can react.’”

Remote in one hand, phone open to your app of choice in the other. Like discussing the plot of Thor Part 53: I Guess Thor Beats Up Anthony Tate This Time? with your overstimulated nephew, you’ve forsworn trying to beat the nerds at their own game. Here are three things to eyeball when you’re learning how to live bet like a champ:

1. Get Used To Line Shopping

There are only so many services that provide in-play oddsmaking. That means you only have to get familiar with a few different sets of moves the books can throw at you. Once you develop a feel for how the books are going to move in relation to each other, you can start to figure out whose numbers are more valuable to you.

Or better yet, you can spot arbitrage opportunities.

Some books might leave numbers up longer on injuries. Some might consistently value home teams more, or price underdogs longer. Whatever variables there are, you’ll begin to read the board with an educated eye, whether there’s an arb out there or not.

“You do not have to bet both sides,” Miller said. “You just have to get better at figuring out who’s right and who’s wrong. There’s a ton of money that you can make in live football betting this year by basically reverse engineering the sportsbooks that are available to you.”

Injuries in particular are where knowledge of tendencies and a quick finger can come together for big profits.

Say Davante Adams has 70 yards through the third quarter, but he takes a hit and he limps to the sidelines. One book you know from experience moves quickly on injury news and takes him to 94.5 yards at +120 to the Over, but a slower book still has him at 94.5 at +115 to the Under. Grab both bets and you’ve guaranteed a profit of $15 or $20 on $100 bets with zero risk. Or maybe you think one book is overreacting to an injury that’ll quickly be treated in the medical tent.

Football knowledge and a trained eye can see things algorithms can’t.

“Football’s an extremely visual game,” Miller said. “A lot of people want to use just data. They say, ‘I’m going to solve the (live betting) problem with fast data.’ But how do you get from the data a player is 20 percent to return?”

2. Learn Coaches’ Tendencies

No team went for two more than the Chargers last year. The Packers only converted twice, and hardly ever went for it. Different systems, different philosophies. But knowing that Brandon Staley does one thing and Matt LaFleur does another can lead to a huge swing for your bankroll.

If it’s a Chargers game and they’re down 14 and driving late, knowing Staley is more likely to go for two means you’ll be better positioned to take advantage of lines that default to seven in that spot.

“It’s either going to be almost exactly down seven or it’s going be 50/50 that they’re down six or eight. This is the problem with those huge menus: They’ll give you a menu of every point and they’ll say, come and get it,” Miller said. “When they’re driving down 14, look at that six-and-a-half or seven-and-a-half. If you know what that coach is going to do … those edges are huge.”

3. End Of Game

Speaking of huge edges, the ends of games can see edges of up to 50 percent for bettors. It’s when the normal rules of football physics break down, but models don’t always properly adjust.

Up three scores and driving with the clock running down, Miller has seen live-betting systems (driven by algorithms) hang numbers like the three points are a lock.

For example, let’s say the Chiefs are beating the Texans by 17 points. The Chiefs have the ball in field goal range with under 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter. A live betting system could make the Chiefs -19.5 because of that. It just looks at field position but doesn’t account for real-world situations, where a team in that spot is likely to kneel.

“It’s true in all sports,” he said. “At the end of baseball games, a lot of models are not based on which actual relief pitch is in the game. It’s just based on a team, say, being down, by two in the ninth inning. It’s not even based on if it’s Josh Hader or some jerk from Triple-A. That’s going to swing the price by 10 percent. It comes up in basketball. Are they going to foul or not? When are they gonna start fouling? You (the bettor) can just beat this stuff up.”

For more on live betting strategy, check out the Props.com guide on How to Win at Live Betting.

The post Live Betting Is Wide Open For (Realistic) Profit – Here’s How To Get Started appeared first on Props.

The last time a team was on the brink of three straight Stanley Cups, the country was losing its mind over a Star Wars sequel, Tom Cruise had a Top-10 blockbuster, and rising interest rates whipsawed the economy into a recession. Wait, what? 

Anyway, the Lightning have the opportunity to do what no team has done since the 1980-83 Islanders: string together three straight Stanley Cup championships. Despite that recent dominance, Tampa Bay checks in as substantial underdogs to make it happen. 

Props.com has the full breakdown of Lightning vs Avalance odds and action with a Stanley Cup Final Game 1 betting preview.

Lightning Vs Avalance Odds: Game 1 

Odds via PointsBetUSA and updated as of 1:15 p.m. ET on June 15.

N.Y. Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning (8 p.m. ET/ABC)

Best-of-7 series: First game.
Season series: Colorado won 2-0. The Avs won 3-2 in Denver on Feb. 10, and in Tampa 4-3 on Oct. 23.
Playoff results to date: Tampa Bay 12-5 overall (5-4 road); Colorado 12-2 overall (5-2 home).
Series price: Colorado -180, Tampa Bay +150

How the Avalanche got here: By wrecking everything in their path. Colorado rolled up 119 points in the regular season, second only to the Florida Panthers. After blitzing the Predators 4-0, Colorado barely slowed down against the Blues, losing Game 2 convincingly and Game 5 in OT only after giving up a 3-0 lead in the second. They bounced back against Edmonton with another sweep despite losing starting goalie Darcy Kuemper in Game 1 of that series. Potting 22 goals across four games will do that for you.

How the Lightning got here: Tampa had to settle for third in a stacked Atlantic. Their 110 points put them third behind Toronto and Florida, but the Lightning got to prove who the better team was in the playoffs. They played a life-and-death opening round seven-game set against the Maple Leafs that if we’re all being honest would have made for a much better Eastern Conference Finals. The Bolts stunned the deer-in-headlights Panthers in four straight before getting all they could handle from the New York Rangers, whom they dispatched in six. 

Key Injuries

Colorado Avalanche: Centers Nazim Kadri and Andrew Cogliano are both day-to-day and looking doubtful for Game 1. Kadri injured his right thumb, and Cogliano recently underwent hand surgery, though both were skating without sticks at practice.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Center Brayden Point is listed as day-to-day with a leg injury but is expected to play tonight.

Man Advantage

According to BetPrep, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has been frosty. He’s 11 of his last 11 to go pointless, and even though you have to lay some pretty significant juice, at -160, BetPrep still sees 21% expected value on the play.

Some other players showing an edge on the BetPrep Prop Cheat Sheet are:

• COL Devin Toews Over 1.5 shots on goal. Toews hasn’t been crushing this one lately. He’s been Under five of his last seven. But before this cold streak started against the Blues, he’s been money, clearing the number 63 of 95. At +130 there’s 24% edge here.
• TBL Ondre Palat Over 0.5 points. He’s beat it eight of his last nine and he’s only -118 to get there tonight. It’s a number good for 20% edge.
• COL Valeri Nichuskin Under 2.5 shots on goal. This is another juicy play at -160, but Nichuskin is a stone-cold weapon for the Avs. He’s beat it 16 of his last 21, and the play generates 12% expected value.

Betting Nuggets

• COL is 5-0 as a favorite
• COL is 5-1 on the puckline against a Top-10 defense
• COL is 10-4 on the puckline after three-plus days of rest
• TBL is 6-0 on the puckline as an underdog
• TBL is 4-13 on the puckline after three-plus days of rest
• Under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last five

Tale Of The (Betting) Tape

Here are some key numbers BetPrep has identified, in both game and betting stats. These are for the regular season and playoffs combined, and the profit and loss numbers are based on $100 wagers.

Lightning vs Avalanche Odds and Action

UPDATE 5 P.M ET WEDNESDAY: Colorado has come down slightly to -155 with the action heavy on the Avalanche. They’re taking 62% of the money against 72% of the cash. Tampa Bay’s +130 on the other side isn’t proving attractive, and less so on the puckline where the Lightning +1.5 is at -216 and only generating 38% of tickets and 10% of handle. The total is lopsided too with 72% of wagers on Over 6 despite the juice running to -161. “Just” 66% of the dough falls on the Over, though.

UPDATE 1:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The moneyline at PointsBetUSA opened with the Avs as the heavy -175 chalk, but they were quickly bet down to -165 and have ticked down since to -160. 

On the puckline it was a similar story with Colorado opening at +165 to win by two, quickly being bet up to +170 and swung out to +175 yesterday afternoon where it currently sits.

The total has been steady at 6 with the juice at Over -115, aside from a brief trip to -120 Monday afternoon.

In the series, PointsBet opened Colorado as a -200 favorite, but they’ve come down to Avs -180 with the Lightning +150 on the comeback. The Lightning are taking the bulk of the tickets (63%) and money (77%)

Check back prior to puck drop of Game 1 for additional Lightning vs. Avalanche odds and action updates.

The post Lightning Vs Avalanche Odds: Stanley Cup Final Game 1 appeared first on Props.

Admit it: Every year the Kentucky Derby odds come out and you make an obligatory bet, but you’ve thought about doing more. You’ve always been a little horse racing-curious. When you walk into the sportsbook and you see the old guys camped out in their cubbies clocking Keeneland at 11 a.m. on a Las Vegas Friday, you secretly think they’ve got it all figured out, don’t you?

You’re right. 

The Sport of Kings is what separates the degenerate men from the degenerate boys. It’s the 18-year Islay Scotch of betting. The foie gras of wagers. Smoky. Mysterious. Maybe a little off-putting at first. The learning curve can be steep. The materials can be intimidating. But the ponies also provide dozens of chances a day to bring home a 30-1 long shot at a speed with which no 15-team parlay could ever hope to match.

So let’s dive into 2022 Kentucky Derby odds, and maybe get you from a once-a-year horse bettor up to a couple-summer-days-at-a-nice-track-per-year horse bettor.

Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

Assessing the Favorites

There are two true short prices in this year’s field: the favorite, Zandon (3-1), the second choice Epicenter (7-2). Two other horses also are in the mix at the top of the Kentucky Derby odds board in Messier (8-1) and Taiba (12-1). 

Over the last 10 years, morning line favorites have finished first six times, second twice, third once and off the board once (and that once was in Maximum Security’s 2019 disqualification). So if you’re going to use one of the two favorites, it’s a reasonable play. And if you’re only choosing one, an obvious place to start would be Epicenter, who dusted Zandon once already in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in February.

It was like watching Ja’Marr Chase getting loose past a middle school cornerback:

In fact, Epicenter torched four of Saturday’s rivals in that race: Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, Smile Happy and Tawny Port.

“He’s the most likely winner of the race,” said Ed DeRosa, vice president of content and product development at Horse Racing Nation. “Whether you’re looking at what races a horse has won, or if you’re a speed figure handicapper, he checks both boxes.”

Adding to Epicenter’s Derby allure: He followed up his Risen Star Stakes triumph with a second straight win in last month’s Louisiana Derby, where he beat Pioneer of Medina again and another Derby hopeful, Zozos.

“Epicenter, with those two big back-to-back wins, including beating Zandon head to head — I just think that kind of leads more in his direction of being the post-time favorite,” DeRosa said.

If there’s a knock on Epicenter, it’s that he had it easy in those two races, never really challenged or in any trouble. You know, sort of like your older brother who could do no wrong, but now that he got a taste of real life, he’s a twice-divorced ex-cop who got booted off the force because he couldn’t pass the physical standards test anymore. Now who’s mom’s favorite, Chet? 

Zandon, on the other hand, came through a mile of traffic in the Blue Grass Stakes to rally from second-to-last to first-and-not-really close. Zandon has a chip on his shoulder. He just keeps coming, like a Terminator who in his downtime enjoys apples and sugar cubes.

Hot on the Heels

Messier, the California-based speedball, won the Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths, a performance that’d make your eyes bug out of your head like a cartoon wolf looking at a pretty lady. But he came back in the Santa Anita Derby and lost to Taiba by 2.5 lengths. 

The latter has won all his races. The problem: There have only been two of them. The last time a horse won a Kentucky Derby while only having two starts under his belt, there were Civil War veterans still in their 30s. Then again, the year before Leonatus pulled off that feat, Apollo won the 1882 Derby without having ever raced as a 2-year-old. That wouldn’t happen again until 2018 with Justify, so maybe we’re just on a 140-year cycle with these things.

“You have to acknowledge that what [Taiba’s] shown to date is as good as the talent of any other horse in the race, but [the Kentucky Derby] is not just a time trial,” DeRosa said. “It’s a race with 19 other 3-year-olds going a mile and a quarter. When it comes to training horses to compete at this level, in this race in particular, that preparation is absolutely a part of the equation as much as the raw talent. And for that reason, I think he’ll be the fourth choice in this race. I think he’s going to be overbet and I’m not willing to take the price.” 

Updated @kentuckyderby fair odds line now in program order with morning line. The latter is my predicted chances of winning; the former is the track's prediction of how betting will go. Thank you to @ClimaxStallions for sponsoring this content! pic.twitter.com/Uy0f6r4Fb8

— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) May 2, 2022

The Baffert Factor

Bobby Baffert has been a bad boy. The supertrainer earned himself a two-year suspension from Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit — last year’s nominal Kentucky Derby winner — tested positive for a banned substance.

In Baffert’s absence, former assistant Tim Yakteen takes over training for two horses that were in Baffert’s stable. Those two: Taiba and Messier. If your typical Derby play is to find the Baffert horses and blind-fire, Yakteen is your guy.

At least you’re likely to get a slightly better price on those two horses, since most of the public bettors who blindly fire on Baffert horses come Derby Day likely aren’t hip to the whole saga. If those bettors lay off when they don’t see Bob’s name in the program, that should help keep the odds honest on Taiba and Messier.

The Next Ones Up

In the Wood Memorial, Mo Donegal made up a huge amount of ground. He came from the back of the pack to settle into second. It looked like that was all he’d get, but somehow in the final sixteenth of a mile, he found a gear, closed the gap and stole the race. The knock here is Mo Donegal has drawn post 1, and being inside on the Kentucky Derby has the distinct disadvantage of putting you in the spot 19 other surly, psychotic horses want to be: on the rail. You better be quick, or you better be tough. Your third choice is you better enjoy a lovely view of a dozen majestic horse butts.

Mo Donegal lost to White Abarrio in the Holy Bull, who just hung tough the whole race, then ran down Charge It and Simplification in the Florida Derby. There are legit questions about whether White Abarrio can handle the longer distance of the Kentucky Derby. But if this horse is around his morning line of 10-1 on race day, well … he might not win, but he could make the exacta real interesting. 

The Bombs

Two horses sitting at 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby odds morning line are lightly raced and have been improving: Smile Happy and Charge It. Of the two, the former has been in against tougher competition, finishing second to both Epicenter and Zandon. Will you get them at this fat price on Derby Day? Maybe not. But if they’re in the neighborhood, it’s a swing worth taking.

No horse is more than 30-1 on the morning line, but DeRosa likes a pair of ponies far down the Kentucky Derby odds board. 

“If you ran this race 100,000 times, Epicenter wins most of them. But if you’re trying to push an edge, I think Pioneer of Medina and Tiz the Bomb are the ones that can outrun their odds,” he said. “I’m playing it with the two long shots. If Zandon and Epicenter run well with one of my prices, hopefully I’m in good shape.”

Kentucky Derby Predictions

Best Bet to Win: Epicenter

Best Price: White Abarrio

Most Intriguing Wild Card: Taiba

The Bomb: Smile Happy

The Play: $10 exacta, Epicenter and Zandon, with White Abarrio, Smile Happy and Charge It. $60 bet.  

The post Kentuck Derby Odds: Breaking Down The Run For The Roses appeared first on Props.

Nothing new in the AL West this year. There’s the Astros, and then there’s the other four. It makes the job of sorting out MLB win totals somewhat easier: Give Houston a lot, give Oakland nada, and deal with the other three squads.

Those three squads in the middle — Los Angeles, Texas and Seattle — were active in retooling their rosters during the offseason. But they’re three teams united in a mission to prove you don’t need pitching depth to win baseball games. Interesting theory. Let’s see if it works out.

Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a division-by-division look at MLB win totals. Onto the AL West: The Island of Misfit Ballclubs.

2022 AL West Win Totals

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 10 a.m. ET on March 29

Houston Astros Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 96-67 (1st place)
2022 win total projection: 91.5
Key additions: INF Niko Goodrum, RP Héctor Nerris
Key subtractions:  SS Carlos Correa, RP Yimi García, INF/OF Marwin Gonzalez, RP Kendall Graveman, SP Zack Greinke

That the Astros largely stood pat is sort of understandable. Last year, they were a 95-win team whose run differential suggested a 102-win team — despite getting all of six innings out of Justin Verlander.

Houston should be able to squeeze another year out of basically the same lineup, minus that one noticeable middle-of-the-order bat. Naturally, losing Carlos Correa and his 5.2 oWAR to the Twins in the AL Central is going to make the offense worse than last year, but the hope is that outfielder Kyle Tucker’s breakout campaign in 2021 — 30 homers, 92 RBI — is a sign of even bigger things to come. Because God forbid karma wake up and get to work on the Houston Didn’t Really Pay a Price Astros. (Seriously, can we at least get Jose Altuve in a John Smoltz-like laundry mishap?)

If the lineup is a little older and creakier and less lethal, the ‘Stros should be able to preserve a good chunk of their gaudy plus-205 run differential on the pitching side. With Verlander (Tommy John surgery) back topping the rotation, the remaining quartet of Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers form hands-down the best starting set in the division. If Houston has a soft underbelly, it’s in the bullpen, where it’s Ryan Pressley and a cardboard cutout of Billy Wagner.

That ‘pen absolutely can be the thing that pumps the brakes on Houston’s win total, but all the way to the high 80s? When they get 19 games against Oakland? We’ll roll with the Over. 

Los Angeles Angels Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 77-85 (5th place)
2022 win total projection: 83.5
Key additions: RP Archie Bradley, INF Matt Duffy, RP Raisel Iglesias, P Michael Lorenzen, SP Noah Syndergaard
Key subtractions: OF Dexter Fowler, SP Alex Cobb, SP Dylan Bundy, RP Steve Cishek, OF Juan Lagares

It’s deeply comical that the Angels have the two best players in the game — and top two AL MVP candidates — and their win total is 83.5. That’s because the organization tends to regard the entire concept of “pitching” like a gang of apes crowding around the monolith: They’re damn certain it’s important, but they just can’t quite figure out how.

No Angels pitcher last year went more than 100 innings other than their full-time DH, Shoehei Ohtani. Recognizing this was an issue, the club went out and got Noah Syndergaard, a man who’s pitched exactly two innings since 2019. Well then. Problem solved.

Trout, Ohtani, however many games they get out of Anthony Rendon, Max Stassi, Jared Walsh, and a potentially emergent Jo Adell is more than fine. They won’t gum you to death. 

On the bump, Ohtani is Ohtani. Patrick Sandoval was excellent in 14 starts last year, but it’s a small sample size. Thor reportedly touched 95 mph on the gun in his first spring start, but even if he can get through the whole campaign, he’s likely to be on an innings limit. And the former is a wide-open assumption at this point. 

We can see a world where things break right and the Angels climb over their MLB win totals projection with 85-88 wins, but we’re not betting on it. Give us the Under.

Seattle Mariners Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 90-72 (2nd place)
2022 win total projection: 83.5
Key additions: 2B Adam Frazier, SP Robbie Ray, RP Sergio Romo, 3B Eugenio Suarez, OF Jesse Winker
Key subtractions: SP Tyler Anderson RP Sean Doolittle,  SP Yusei Kikuchi, SP James Paxton, RP Hector Santiago, 3B Kyle Seager (retired)

The Mariners won 90 games last year. We’re not sure how, exactly. But 90. And still didn’t make the playoffs, because it’s the Seattle Mariners. After two full decades, fans wouldn’t even know how to react anymore if their team made the playoffs. Do you bring a gift? Do you wear your underwear on the outside? No news of this strange and wonderful postseason has made its way to the Pacific Northwest. (The Seahawks are laughing that this doesn’t apply to them, too, until they … remember.)

Eugenio Suarez is a nice upgrade over the retired Kyle Seager at the hot corner, and trading for both him and Jesse Winker lengthens a lineup that wasn’t particularly impressive last year. 

Chris Flexen and now Robbie Ray head a staff without much behind them. Do you think Ray is a pitcher who finally put it all together last season when he won the AL Cy Young, or a pitcher who caught the second fluke season of his career? 

How you answer that question probably decides how you feel about them hurdling their modest MLB win totals projection of 83.5. We’re inclined to lean the other way, not only because we don’t have full faith and trust in Ray to do it again, but also because this team was insanely lucky to hit 90 last year. Their Pythagorean had them as a 75-win squad. The additions certainly make them better than 75, but probably not as good as 84.

Texas Rangers Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 60-102 (5th place)
2022 win total projection: 74.5
Key additions: OF Kole Calhoun, C Mitch Garver,  SP Jon Gray, RP Brad Holland, OF Billy McKinney, SP Martín Peréz, SP Garett Richards, SS Corey Seager, 2B Marcus Semien, RP Brandon Workman
Key subtractions: SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SP Jordan Lyles, SP Mike Foltynewicz

Look at the offseason the Rangers had and try to convince us that Jerry Jones didn’t secretly buy this team. 

They signed Marcus Semien to a monster seven-year deal and then just … went ahead and got Corey Seager a day later on an even bigger deal. Wait, don’t they both play shortstop? So what. Wade Phillips and Barry Switzer will straighten it out.

Don’t ever let anyone tell you they can’t fire all the players so they fire coaches instead. This is the Ship of Theseus of Rangers.

Good news is Texas won’t lose 100 again, and this club will certainly hit. But the Rangers ran out of money buying up all the big-ticket shortstops, and thus could only afford Jon Gray to come in and pitch. The rest of the rotation? It’s like yo mamma in a hall of mirrors: a lot of ugly.

If what we just said about the Angels is true, it goes double for Texas. Fun fact: The Rangers’ staff projects to have the second-lowest combined WAR as a pitching group in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs. Not fun if you’re a Rangers fan. But it is fun if you plan on betting Texas games Over the total this season! 

The Rangers’ win total of 74.5 number in the MLB win totals market seems right around where it should be. They’ll win some 10-8 games, but until they sort out their pitching, they aren’t going to be able to take advantage of that 10-year window they bought themselves.

Oakland A’s Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 86-76 (3rd place)
2022 win total projection: 70.5
Key additions: LOL
Key subtractions:  Everyone. SP Chris Bassitt, OF Mark Canha, RP Andrew Chafin, 3B Matt Chapman, DH Khris Davis, RP Mike Friers, C Yan Gomes, 2B Josh Harrison, OF Starling Marte, 1B Mitch Moreland, 1B Matt Olson, RP Sergio Romo, RP Trevor Rosenthal, SP Vida Blue, 3B Eric Chavez, that one cool Bash Brothers poster where Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire were dressed like the Blues Brothers, A.A. Milne, all the aardvarks in the Oakland Zoo. Just … everyone.

The Athletics clearly aren’t interested in winning baseball games, and you shouldn’t be interested in betting them to do that.

This isn’t a fire sale. It’s a solar flare that engulfed an entire organization. By the time you read this, SPs Frankie Montas Sean Mannea, along with prized young catcher Sean Murphy, may already be gone or their departures imminent (if they’re lucky). Oakland does have a Kevin Smith on its roster, and we’re not 100 percent certain it isn’t the guy who directed Clerks.

If the A’s get to 71 wins, it’ll be by complete accident. It’s possible that this squad could Producers their way Over their win total. But they won’t get our cash in the effort.

The post MLB Win Totals: Astros Can Take It Easy In AL West appeared first on Props.

The AL Central presents a bit of a conundrum when you’re putting together the division’s MLB win totals puzzle. (Except for the Royals. They’re the piece of the puzzle the dog chewed up and doesn’t fit anymore.)

The White Sox are the cream of the crop, but questions abound. How much will Carlos Correa gas up the Twins? Is the Tigers’ window opening? Will those improved squads put a cap on Chicago’s ceiling and depress their number? And then there are the Guardians … Guardians of what, exactly? Baseball? The city of Cleveland? Flammable rivers?

Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a division-by-division look at MLB win totals. On to the AL Central: baseball’s most unexpected free-agent landing destination.

2022 NL Central Win Totals

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on March 29.

Chicago White Sox Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 93-69 (1st place)
2022 win total projection: 91.5
Key additions: INF Josh Harrison, RP Kendall Graveman, RP Joe Kelly
Key subtractions:  OF Billy Hamilton, 2B César Hernández, SP Carlos Rodon 

Any lineup displaying the names Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiminéz, Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, and Yoan Moncada is going to rake. The question is: How much of that lineup is going to have those guys in it?

The answer last year was “about 2,300 plate appearances between five guys.” Clearly the South Siders would like more than 50-70 games a pop from Robert and Jiminéz this year. But even with that duo missing huge chunks of time, Chicago still battered the rest of the division. Give that quintet close to 3,000 PAs, sit back with an Italian beef, and watch the show.

On the pitching side, this starting rotation should deal, even if there’s some regression from last year’s fewest-runs-allowed-in-the-AL highs. Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease will strike out the world. Lance Lynn won’t pitch to a sub-3 ERA again, but as a No. 3 or 4 starter, he’ll do. The organization must have enough faith in Michael Kopech returning to his natural role as a starter after missing 2019 and 2020. Otherwise they wouldn’t have let Carlos Rodon and his 185 strikeouts walk.

Last season this team managed 93 wins despite an 18-24 mark in one-run games, suggesting the ChiSox were victims of some unluckiness. They played to a 99-win run differential. Regression in run prevention should be expected … and should be offset by an uptick in run production. Full seasons from all their contributors and Kopech emerging as a true starter, and 91.5 should be trivial for this squad. An ALCS that features Chicago should surprise no one.

Minnesota Twins Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 73-89 (5th place)
2022 win total projection: 81.5
Key additions: SP Chris Archer, SP Dylan Bundy, SS Carlos Correa, SP Sonny Gray, C Gary Sanchez, INF Gio Urshela
Key subtractions: RP Alex Colomé, 3B Josh Donaldson, C Mitch Garver, SS Andrelton Simmons, SP Michael Pineda

There’s a very real chance Minnesota acquired you, your cat, and your Xbox this offseason. The Twins were so trade-happy they got shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers and traded him to the Yankees in less time than you spent watching 12 hours of basketball on St. Patrick’s Day.

The Twins signed Carlos Correa out of nowhere on a convoluted prove-it deal (despite being more than one big piece away from contention). It’s the kind of move you’d make on your fantasy team after you came home from watching 12 hours of basketball on St. Patrick’s Day.

Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and whatever they can get out of free-swinging returnee Miguel Sano and free-swinging newcomer Gary Sanchez gives Minnesota a solid lineup. Different story on the mound.

A rotation of Sonny Gray-Dylan Bundy-the desiccated remains of Chris Archer should credibly offset any gains the lineup makes. Bookmakers have essentially tagged the Twins to be a .500 squad, and that seems like exactly what they are. A middle-of-the-road ballclub that should finish right around its 81.5 win total. We’d shade a win or two Over if were forced to pick a side, simply from the games Minnesota will get against the Royals, Tigers, and Guardians. But when it comes to MLB win totals, we’ll sit this one out.

Detroit Tigers Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 77-85 (3rd place)
2022 win total projection: 77.5
Key additions: SS Javier Báez, C Tucker Barnhart, RP Andrew Chafin, SP Michael Pineda, SP Eduardo Rodriguez
Key subtractions: SP Matthew Boyd, RP Derek Holland, 3B Nick Quintana, SP Julio Teheran, SP José Ureña

They won’t be the Central’s best team, but at least they’re not boring. 

Detroit started by jettisoning its high-risk, high-reward pitching staff (which, in practice, was more all-risk, no-reward) and bringing in veterans Eduardo Rodriguez (Boston) and Michael Pineda (Minnesota). The latter, naturally, won’t be there to start the season because he’s having work visa issues. From there, manager A.J. Hinch will run out lefty Tarik Skubal, and 24-year-old right-handers Casey Mize and Matt Manning to round out the five-man rotation.

Look, no one’s watching the Tigers for their pitching. But the offense is a different story. Adding in Javy Báez gives Detroit a 29-year-old only a couple years and two thumbs down to Mets fans removed from his 3-5 WAR seasons. Throw in two white-hot prospects — 22-year-old infielder/outfielder Spencer Torkelson and 21-year-old center fielder Riley Greene — and it’s almost enough to distract you from the fact Miguel Cabrera is still around, aging like he just watched a bunch of Nazis open the Ark of the Covenant, for the next 80 years of his contract.

The pitching won’t do the Tigers any favors. Still, just having two young prospects pushing journeymen Niko Goodrum (now with Houston) and Nomar Mazara (San Diego) out of Motown makes them watchable. And it makes them playable to this Over in the MLB win totals market.

Cleveland Guardians Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 80-82 (2nd place)
2022 win total projection: 76.5
Key additions: C Luke Maile
Key subtractions: C Wilson Ramos

This won’t be the Central’s best team … and they’re going to be kind of boring. If Jose Ramírez, Myles Straw, and Franmil Reyes filed a class-action suit for negligence, would anyone blame them?

The only new thing about this Guardians team compared with last year is the name. Maybe they couldn’t do anything to improve their offense because the rest of the division was too busy gobbling up all the talent. Last year, Cleveland was firmly an 80-win team that could pitch but couldn’t score runs, and this year they’re going to really mix it up by … being able to pitch but not score runs.

If the Twins and Tigers are the AL Central teams with question marks on the mound, the Guardians aren’t the team built to take advantage. And that thin lineup gets to face White Sox pitching 19 times. Cleveland short number in the MLB win totals market is interesting, considering the team hasn’t finished with fewer than 80 victories in a full season since 2012. Still, we’re comfortable taking this Under.

Kansas City Royals Win Total

2021 regular-season record: 74-88 (4th place)
2022 win total projection: 74.5
Key additions: RP Amir Garrett, SP Zack Greinke
Key subtractions:  INF Hanser Alberto, RP Wade Davis, RP Greg Holland, SP Jakob Junis, SP Mike Minor, RP Ervin Santana 

In 2010 Zack Grienke was the hottest pitcher on the trade market. The Royals shipped him away in the Lorenzo Cain deal and now, 12 years later at the end of his career, Greinke comes home. Which is great for the Royals because they have nobody else to pitch. They don’t even have Mike Minor anymore, and Mike Minor isn’t due for one of his occasional shockingly good seasons in 2022. They might tell Salvy Perez he has to chuck a few innings. Maybe they’ll go get Brett Saberhagen. 

But this year isn’t about this year in Kansas City. It’s about getting top farmhand Bobby Witt Jr. to The Show and hoping the shortstop/third baseman is a better hitter than his old man was a pitcher. (If you’re too young to remember Bobby Witt Sr., don’t bother looking him up. Career 4.83 ERA guy who bounced around a million teams. He was Edwin Jackson before Edwin Jackson was Edwin Jackson.)

Between Perez, Witt, up-and-coming catcher/DH MJ Melendez, and veteran outfielder Andrew Benintendi, the Royals can cobble together a serviceable middle of the order. But on the fringes there’s not enough. We don’t love going Under 74.5, but we’d lean that direction.

The post MLB Win Totals: White Sox Should Own AL Central appeared first on Props.

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays finished with 91 wins, easily surpassing their preseason MLB win totals projection of 86.5. Yet that was only good for sole possession of fourth place. Such is life in the AL East, the Nightmare Mode of MLB divisions. No other fourth-place team in the other five divisions even cracked 75 wins, because baseball is hilariously cruel. 

At the betting window, 2022 AL East win totals show a division not much easier than last year’s gantlet. It’s one of only two divisions where multiple teams are tagged for 90-plus wins. Of course, the East also sports the Orioles. (The division contains multitudes.)

Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a division-by-division look at MLB win totals. Having begun with a breakdown of the NL East, we turn our attention to the AL East, where once again four teams are projected to easily clear .500.

2022 AL East Win Totals

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on March 28.

Toronto Blue Jays

2021 regular-season record: 91-71 (4th place)
2022 win total projection: 92.5 (-105)
Key additions: 3B Matt Chapman, SP Kevin Gausman, SP Yusei Kikuchi
Key subtractions: OF Randal Grichuk, SP Steven Matz, SP Robbie Ray, SS Marcus Semien 

Last year’s Blue Jays scored the third-most runs in the AL, allowed the fourth-most, and finished nine wins off their Pythagorean pace, with a run differential that trailed only Tampa Bay and Houston. 

They let the AL Cy Young winner walk (Robbie Ray), let their 7.3 WAR shortstop mosey down to Texas (Marcus Semien), and they’re probably going to be better than they were last year. Because they can’t possibly be any unluckier.

While neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Kevin Gausman are likely to produce the kind of season Ray did last year, when paired with a full season from ex-Twins ace Jose Berrios, they should offset the loss of Ray and Stephen Matz. 

But the thing that should give pitchers nightmares is that Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette are going to be another year matured. Also, Matt Chapman joins the fun, and Teoscar Hernandez is a guy most people who didn’t grow up with a Carlos Delgado poster on their wall will start to respect for being the 30-home-run hitter he is. 

The Jays are young with a wide-open window whose biggest weaknesses are an average bullpen and the health of George Springer. Well. The bullpen thing, anyway. The Springer factor isn’t so much a weakness as it is inevitable. 

New York Yankees

2021 regular-season record: 92-70 (3rd place)
2022 win total projection: 91.5
Key additions: 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Isaiah Kiner-Falefa
Key subtractions: OF Clint Frazier, OF Brett Gardner, SP Corey Kluber, C Gary Sanchez, 3B Gio Urshela, 1B/DH Luke Voit 

It took GM Brian Cashman until July 28, when his club was 53-47, to realize lefties might not be a bad idea in Yankee Stadium. The one with the famously short right-field porch.

If there’s reason for tempered optimism that the franchise can return to the Fall Classic for the first time since winning championship No. 27 in 2009, it’s this: They’re at least getting a full season out of lefty sluggers Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo.

The plan calls for an infield of Rizzo at first, Gleyber Torres at second, and newcomers Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson at short and third, respectively. That leaves veteran DJ LeMahieu to act as a super sub rotating around the diamond and giving everyone a regular spell, as the organization again prioritizes frequent rest as a means of keeping everyone healthy. And health is absolutely an ongoing concern in the Bronx.

If they can get Luis Severino fully recovered from his 2020 Tommy John surgery; if they can keep Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Jameson Taillon, and  LeMahieu healthy; if their high-octane offense doesn’t completely disappear for weeks at a time; if Torres is the 2018-19 player and not the 2021 player … if, if, if. 

Presuming reasonable health and BABIP luck holds, the Yankees should be able to hang with any team in the American League. But if they’re the same stuck-in-third-gear team we’ve seen the last couple of years? There’s little chance they will beat their MLB win totals expectation by five wins again, like they did last year. This all points to a low-ceiling, high-floor team where 91-92 wins feels about right. 

Tampa Bay Rays

2021 regular-season record: 100-62 (1st place)
2022 win total projection: 89.5
Key additions: SP Corey Kluber
Key subtractions: DH Nelson Cruz, SP Collin McHugh, SP Michael Wacha, INF Joey Wendle

Welcome to the “Figure Out What the Tampa Front Office is Scheming on This Time” challenge.

The smartest, most creative team in baseball handed 21-year-old shortstop Wander Franco an 11-year, $182-million contract, signed former Cy Young winner/recently oft-injured Corey Kluber, and didn’t do anything else all that crazy in the offseason. 

The plan appears to be something like “wait for pitchers Tyler Glasnow and ace-in-waiting Shane Baz to get healthy.” Glasnow (Tommy John surgery) likely won’t pitch this year, but Baz should see time if his recovery from thoracic outlet surgery goes smoothly. He would anchor a rotation (with actual starting pitchers this year!) that will be supported by a lineup that should be well above average.

Despite a lack of big names, this is a legit offense that piled up 857 runs last season, second in the majors. Although veteran DH Nelson Cruz has been subtracted from the calculus, Tampa should still be able to hang close to the Yankees and Jays in terms of firepower. 

Shane McClanahan is young, left-handed, and strikes out a ton of guys. (“Why can’t my team get one of those,” you’re thinking.) And a rotation topped by McClanahan and Kluber could be a gnarly 1-2 (for as long as Kluber can stay on the hill). If Baz comes back and Kluber stays out of street clothes, this has the makings of a quality staff.

A Wild Card run isn’t out of order, but a repeat atop the East might be a tall ask with so many rotation question marks. As such, when looking at MLB win totals, Under 89.5 for Tampa should very much be in play — but with this big, glowing caveat: If they won 100 again or lost 90, we shouldn’t be surprised, because these are the Rays. And chaos is their brand.

Boston Red Sox

2021 regular-season record: 92-70 (2nd place)
2022 win total projection: 85.5
Key additions: OF Jackie Bradley Jr., SP Rich Hill, SP James Paxton, 2B Trevor Story, SP Michael Wacha
Key subtractions: RP Adam Ottavino, SP Martin Perez, OF Hunter Renfroe, SP Eduardo Rodriguez, OF/1B/DH Kyle Schwarber

The greatest disservice the Red Sox did to bettors was not bringing back Garrett Richards to continue to build on his Fenway résumé, where he has a 6.82 ERA and a framed picture in the home of every Over bettor from coast to coast. (Michael Wacha: Please try to fill those shoes!)

Other than that, Boston’s biggest splash was its six-year deal with Trevor Story, a 28-year-old shortstop moving to second for the first time in his career, coming off his worst full season, and whose OPS is 200 points lower outside of Coors Field. 

Last year’s Red Sox, like the Yankees, overachieved relative to their Pythagorean record. And like last year, they’ll be starting the season without ace Chris Sale. He’s likely to return to the rotation sooner rather than later (though at what point a fresh injury will knock him out again is a valid question). When he arrives, Sale should give Boston a nice 1-2 at the top of the rotation with Nathan Eovaldi. But losing Eduardo Rodriguez and replacing him with one of Rich Hill, Wacha or James Paxton (at some point, if he gets healthy) is pure garage-sale mentality. Maybe one of them will actually be worth something someday. Or maybe they’re just a bunch of busted VCRs.

This is a team that can hit but can’t field. It’s also a team that can pitch enough, but only if they have their pitchers. If Sale takes the ball more often than he doesn’t, the Sox should be able to eclipse their MLB win totals projection of 85.5. But we’re betting Guerrero Jr. in Fenway against Rich Hill will end poorly for Boston more often than not.

Baltimore Orioles

2021 regular-season record: 52-110 (5th place)
2022 win total projection: 62.5
Key additions: C Robinson Chirinos, SP Jordan Lyles, INF Rougned Odor
Key subtractions: SP Matt Harvey

The good news is Baltimore’s run differential played exactly to expectation last year. The bad news is that expectation was 52-110 — a season only slightly less embarrassing than the the 2018 Orioles (47-115) but slightly worse than the 2019 Orioles (54-108). Just how rough was 2021 for Baltimore? It gave up nearly a thousand runs. That’s … that’s so many runs.

Will the Orioles be good next year? Oh, oh no. Oh definitely not. But we don’t need them to be good to cash Over 62.5 wins. We just need them to be regular bad, instead of apocalyptically bad.

Optimists can hang their hat on a couple of good things:

• Center fielder Cedric Mullins and third baseman/left fielder Ryan Mountcastle each cranked 30-plus bombs last season!
• The entire pitching staff’s FIP was nearly a full run lower than its ERA, suggesting a healthy dose of bad luck!
• John Means threw a no-hitter! Those are hard to do. Unless you’re a pitcher in April or May of last season, when it was apparently very easy to do.

And reinforcements are on the way. Grayson Rodriguez should contribute to the rotation (which is already improved just by not having Matt Harvey in it), and catcher Adley Rutschman, the top prospect in baseball, could crack the Opening Day lineup.

There are four teams with MLB win totals in the 60s, and the O’s have the worst of it. Three projected victories fewer than even the Pirates. An 11-win improvement in what is arguable the toughest division in baseball is asking a lot. It’s a low bar to hurdle, and they should be better than 52, but … we can’t give them 63.

The post MLB Win Totals: Blue Jays On Rise In AL East appeared first on Props.

NHL training camps are in full swing, and with it, a statistically significant uptick at the population level in Zamboni accidents. But that’s not what we’re here for, is it?

No, we’re here for another banner year in the National Hockey League, where everything new is old again: new old divisions aligned, new old 82-game schedule in place, new old Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs. It’s nice to see the timeless classics are back in style.

Let’s have us a little spin through 2021-22 season points totals, shall we? After kicking things off with the Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions, we head West and preview the Central Division.

According to PointsBet USA sports analyst Michael Korn, there aren’t any surprises in the early NHL betting action. The Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning lead the way in terms of number of Stanley Cup futures tickets written at PointsBet. On the handle side of things, it’s Avs, Lightning, and Golden Knights.

All odds are per PointsBet USA as of 11 a.m. ET on Oct. 7.

Colorado Avalanche

2020-21 season: 39-13-4 (82 points). 1^st in West; eliminated in second round by Vegas
Projected points total: 110.5 (Over -140 / Under +110)

The Avs have been hit enough at PointsBet that the Over juiced up to -140, which given last season’s prorated 120-point pace seems plenty fair. This team is fast, young, and deep. Their Corsi percentage was 58.98%, towering over Montreal’s runner-up 54.5%. But they suffered a big blow with goalie Philipp Grubauer bolting for the Pacific Northwest’s shiny new hockey toy, the Kraken.

Colorado signed Darcy Kuemper to hold down netminding duties, but Kuemper was decidedly not a Vezina finalist last year, unlike Grubauer. (It’s like the Avs and Golden Knights got together and decided last year’s playoff matchup featured too much great goaltending and they were resolved not to repeat that mistake again.) No doubt, this is a lofty point total to surpass, but Colorado has done it before: 118 points during its Stanley Cup-winning season in 2000-01 and 112 points in 2013-14, when the team flamed out in the first round.

Minnesota Wild

2020-21 season: 35-16-5 (75 points). 3^rd in West; eliminated in first round by Vegas
Projected points total: 97.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

The Wild’s big offseason move was buying out the final four years of both Ryan Suter’s and Zach Parise’s contracts, ending a longtime pairing in Minnesota between the defenseman and left winger, respectively. The savings let the Wild extend forward Kirill Kaprizov.

Last year, the Wild were stuck in a pandemic-created division with Colorado and Vegas. Now aligning back to proper divisions, the Wild can shed the Knights and just worry about butting heads with the Avalanche. For what it’s worth, Minnesota has topped this points total in four of the last six 82-game seasons.

Dallas Stars

2020-21 season: 23-19-14 (60 points). 5^th in Central; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 95.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

Last year’s pace would’ve put the Stars at 90 points, and their only big offseason adds were Suter — who despite being 36 likely still has some years left in the tank as a top-four guy — and backup netminder Braden Holtby.

Worth noting Dallas did rank eighth last year in Corsi percentage — ahead of Tampa Bay and Toronto. Also worth noting: Full season or shortened, the Stars have pushed past 95 points just once in the last 13 seasons.

St. Louis Blues

2020-21 season: 27-20-9 (63 points). 4^th in West; eliminated in 1^st round by Colorado
Projected points total: 92.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

St. Louis did add left winger Pavel Buchnevich from the Rangers, but at some point, right winger Vladimir Tarasenko will get the trade he requested. After finishing with at least 99 points in five of six seasons from 2013-14 to 2018-19 — then tallying 94 in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 campaign—last year’s prorated number put the Blues right at 93 points. Is the Laura Branigan magic spent?

Winnipeg Jets

2020-21 season: 30-23-3 (63 points). 3^rd in North; eliminated in 2^nd round by Montreal
Projected points total: 92.5 (Over -130/Under +100)

Winnipeg was almost a full percentage point higher than the Blues last year per Corsi, and the Jets bolstered their blue line by adding Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon. That probably explains why Winnipeg — which finished with 114 and 99 points in the past two full seasons —is juiced more to the Over than its points-total twin, St. Louis.

Chicago Blackhawks

2020-21 season: 24-25-7 (55 points). 6^th in Central; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 91.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

There are 30 other teams that could’ve had the Vezina winner Marc-Andre Fleury for absolutely nothing. Which is basically what the Blackhawks paid for the future Hall of Fame goaltender, as if he was left out with Wednesday’s trash like an old tube TV that’s been clunking up someone’s basement.

Chicago also scored defenseman Seth Jones, which all should add up to a nice boost for a team that last year would’ve graded out to 80 points in a full 82-game schedule (a team that hasn’t put up 92 points since topping 100 in four straight seasons from 2013-14 to 2016-17).

Sadly, an improved Blackhawks squad means we may be subjected to much more “Chelsea Dagger” this year.

Nashville Predators

2020-21 season: 31-23-2 (64 points). 4^th in Central; eliminated in first round by Carolina
Projected points total: 85.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

Longtime goaltender Pekka Rinne finally hung ’em up, and Juuse Saros officially takes over in net. Forward Viktor Arvidsson and defenseman Ryan Ellis were shipped out via trade.

The 2017 Stanley Cup loss to Pittsburgh and subsequent President’s Trophy win may be high-water marks for the next couple of years for a franchise that appears to be in rebuild mode. That said, it’s worth mentioning that Nashville hasn’t finished with fewer than 88 points in a non-shortened season (be it due to a pandemic or lockout) since tallying 74 in 2002-03.

Arizona Coyotes

2020-21 season: 24-26-6 (54 points). 5^th in West; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 67.5 (Over -130/Under +100)

Hey, the Diamondbacks are one of the worst teams in MLB while the ’Yotes figure to be one of the worst teams in the NHL. Twinsies! Despite being the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team, the Cardinals must be nervously looking around and thinking about building a stadium in Santa Fe.

Just how bad is the perception of the 2021-22 Coyotes? Their total opened at 69.5, and bettors have hit the Under enough to drop it two points.

The post NHL Season Point Totals: Avs Expected To Dominate Central Division appeared first on Props.

NHL training camps are in full swing, and with it, a statistically significant uptick at the population level in Zamboni accidents. But that’s not what we’re here for, is it?

No, we’re here for another banner year in the National Hockey League, where everything new is old again: new old divisions aligned, new old 82-game schedule in place, new old Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs. It’s nice to see the timeless classics are back in style.

Let’s have us a little spin through 2021-22 season points totals, shall we? After kicking things off with the Atlantic Division, we move to the Metropolitan.

According to PointsBet USA sports analyst Michael Korn, there aren’t any surprises in the early NHL betting action. The Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning lead the way in terms of number of Stanley Cup futures tickets written at PointsBet.

On the handle side of things, it’s Avs, Lightning, and Golden Knights. As for season point totals, betting on Colorado has been robust enough to push the Over to -140.

All odds are per PointsBet USA as of 7:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 6.

New York Islanders

2020-21 season: 32-17-7 (71 points). 4^th in East; eliminated in Stanley Cup semifinals by Tampa Bay
NHL Season Point Totals: 99.5 (Over -135 / Under +105)

The Isles mostly tended their own garden in the offseason, but they did bring back real-life Game of Thrones frost giant Zdeno Chara, so there’s at least size on the blue line for as many minutes as the 44-year-old can give them.

For two years running, the Islanders have been bounced in the playoffs by the champs, but if they replicate last year’s mark (a 104-point pace), they’ll at least clear the 100-point hurdle. New York has done just that in three of the last five full seasons.

New York Rangers

2020-21 season: 27-23-6 (60 points). 5^th in East; missed playoffs
NHL Season Point Totals: 97.5 (Over -110 / Under -120)

Underachieving seems to follow wherever James Dolan dares to tread. The Blueshirts have had seven first-round picks since 2017, including Nos. 1 and 2 overall in 2020 and 2019, respectively, but have zero playoff appearances to show for it.

They have the talent stockpiled to maybe make the leap in 2021-22 but haven’t cracked 98 points (or the equivalent) since 2016-17. The Rangers did pick up Gerard Gallant to coach the squad, and Gallant had the Golden Knights ready to play from the jump in their inaugural season. He’s reunited with Vegas goon Ryan Reaves, in a play to grit-ify the roster.

Pittsburgh Penguins

2020-21 season: 37-16-3 (77 points). 1^st in East; eliminated in 1^st round by New York Islanders
NHL Season Point Totals: 96.5 (Over -105 / Under -125)

At some point, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have to age. Unfortunately for them, Pittsburgh’s goaltending situation might be the thing to do it.

Tristan Jarry last year ranked 32^nd in goals-against average and 26^th in save percentage among qualifying goalies, which is typically not where one wants to be in a 31-team league. Luckily for the Pens, it’s a 32-team league this year. Now who’s numbers look bad?

Speaking of numbers, this projected point total is telling, considering Pittsburgh has tallied at least 98 points in six straight 82-game seasons and 12 of the last 13 dating to 2006-07. Clearly, the betting market believes Father Time really is coming for Crosby and Malkin.

Carolina Hurricanes

2020-21 season: 36-12-8 (80 points). 1^st in Central; eliminated in 2^nd round by Tampa Bay
NHL Season Point Totals: 95.5 (Over -135 / Under +105)

If you understand what the ‘Canes did in the offseason, you must be GM Rod Brind’Amour. They dumped their entire goalie corps, trading Alex Nedeljkovic to Detroit and letting Petr Mrazek and James Reimer sign elsewhere while bringing in Frederik Andersen (Toronto) and Antti Raanta (Arizona) to mind the net.

They also let defenseman Dougie Hamilton walk and spent $6 million to offer sheet center Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Is the added pop worth the potential downgrade in net? The juice on the over suggests it might be (although Carolina has topped 95 points just twice winning the Cup in 2005-06).

Washington Capitals

2020-21 season: 36-15-5 (77 points). 2nd in Central; eliminated in 1^st round by Boston
NHL Season Point Totals: 95.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)

Alexander Ovechkin will play until he’s 50 and he will still be outdrinking the Caps’ 2035 draft picks. Before firing on the Under here, take note: The last time the Caps finished with less than 100 points (or the equivalent) was the 2013-14 season.

Philadelphia Flyers

2020-21 season: 33-16-7 (73 points). 3^rd in East; eliminated in 2^nd round by New York Islanders
NHL Season Point Totals: 92.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)

The Flyers fortified their blue line by adding defensemen Ryan Ellis, Keith Yandle, and Rasmus Ristolainen, as well as right wing Cam Atkinson. They also picked up goalie Martin Jones, because apparently no one in Philly stayed up late enough to watch Sharks games the last couple of years.

In last year’s pandemic-shortened 56-game season, the Flyers were on pace for 85 points. However, they’re just a season removed from a 96-point-equivalent campaign. In fact, if Philadelphia continues a trend that has seen the team finish with 94-plus points (or the equivalent) every other year since 2011-12 continues, the Over would be live here.

New Jersey Devils

2020-21 season: 19-30-7 (45 points). 7^th in East; missed playoffs
NHL Season Point Totals: 90.5 (-Over 105 / Under -125)

Give coach Lindy Ruff credit for having this team ready to play hard last year. And the upcoming squad has added reinforcements in goaltender Jonathan Bernier, forward Tomas Tatar, and defensemen Dougie Hamilton, Christian Jaros, and Ryan Graves. Those additions probably are why oddsmakers are high on New Jersey, which has cracked the 90-point threshold just once since 2012-13.

The Devils also drafted Luke Hughes after they already took his brother, Jack, first overall in 2019. Somewhere, David Puddy is bragging about the Hughes dynasty to come.

Columbus Blue Jackets

2020-21 season: 18-26-12 (48 points). 8^th in Central; missed playoffs
NHL Season Point Totals: 76.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)

Columbus has the fourth-lowest points total on offer from PointsBet after finishing dead last in a division that only sported three teams over .500. The Blue Jackets jettisoned coach John Tortorella and traded mainstay defensemen Seth Jones. Fellow veteran defenseman Zach Werenski is the last guy at the party who was so busy trying to pick up a girl he didn’t notice all his friends took off. Now the lights are on, and he doesn’t know how he’s going to get home.

The rebuild has begun in Columbus, and 77 points could be a reach — just like it was for the franchise’s first six seasons of existence.

The post NHL Season Point Totals: Metropolitan Division Up For Grabs appeared first on Props.

NHL training camps are in full swing, and with it, a statistically significant uptick at the population level in Zamboni accidents. But that’s not what we’re here for, is it?

No, we’re here for another banner year in the National Hockey League, where everything new is old again: new old divisions aligned, new old 82-game schedule in place, new old Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs. It’s nice to see the timeless classics are back in style.

Let’s have us a little spin through 2021-22 season points totals, shall we? After previously looking at the Atlantic, Metropolitan, and Central divisions, we wrap things up with the Pacific.

According to PointsBet USA sports analyst Michael Korn, there aren’t any surprises in the early NHL betting action. The Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning lead the way in terms of number of Stanley Cup futures tickets written at PointsBet. On the handle side of things, it’s Avs, Lightning, and Golden Knights.

All odds are per PointsBet USA as of 11 a.m. ET on Oct. 8.

Vegas Golden Knights

2020-21 season: 40-14-2 (82 points). 2^nd in West; eliminated in semifinals by Montreal
Projected points total: 106.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

The franchise is too young to have accumulated much real heartbreak, but Marc-Andre Fleury’s brutal Game 3 turnover in the semis last year stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the Sharks popping four goals during a 5-minute major penalty to wipe out the VGK in Game 7 of the 2018-19 first round. (A call so egregious the league later called to apologize).

Still, Vegas is loaded with talent in front of Robin Lehner, who takes over as the true No. 1 goalie. Last year’s absurd 82 points in 56 games equated to 120 points in a full season, and this year Vegas won’t have to duke it out with Colorado for division supremacy. Note, too, that other than the Oilers, no team in this division made the playoffs last year. Cleary, the Kraken had some serious barriers to making last year’s tournament, but technically, they did not make the playoffs.

Edmonton Oilers

2020-21 season: 35-19-2 (72 points). 2^nd in North; eliminated in 1^st round by Winnipeg
Projected points total: 99.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

Two things are true about Edmonton. One, they still have Connor McDavid, who is the Mike Trout of the NHL both in undisputed excellence and in being buried on a team where no one really gets to see him. (Although at least the Oilers had a playoff sighting.) And two, this team absolutely despises the idea of competent goaltending. They’re rolling with Mike Smith, who despite having a fantastic year last year, suffers from a debilitating case of being 39.

The last time Edmonton topped the century mark in points? The 2016-17 season (103). The last time before that? Gotta go back to a six-run from 1981-82 to 1986-87, when some dude named Gretzky was skating around the ice.

Seattle Kraken

2020-21 season: A twinkle in Ron Francis’ eye
Projected points total: 92.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Welcome, new kid. On pricing out the Kraken, Korn said: “We opened the total at 92.5, then it got pushed down to 91.5 before shooting all the way up to 94.5.” And now? Back down to 92.5. Clearly there are some strong (and differing) opinions on the Kraken.

We’re not sure what’s weirder: that Seattle didn’t make any expansion trades when filling out its roster, or that a screamy line in a bro-fave movie from 15 years ago left enough of a zeitgeist mark to name an entire sports franchise over.

Calgary Flames

2020-21 season: 26-27-3 (55 points). 5^th in North; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 92.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

Calgary certainly is an NHL franchise that exists. It doesn’t ever really feel like there’s much more to say about the Flames, does it? Captain Mark Giordano goes to Seattle and is replaced by fellow defenseman Nikita Zadorov, a decent pickup from Chicago. Last year’s Corsi put the Flames seventh in the league, so hey, there’s something exciting for Calgary backers.

As for recent history, the Flames have gone over this points total three times in the last decade: 2018-19 (107), 2016-17 (94), and 2014-15 (97).

Vancouver Canucks

2020-21 season: 23-29-4 (50 points). 7^th in North; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 88.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

After an offseason that saw a flurry of moves (adding winger Conor Garland and defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Arizona, losing defenseman Nate Schmidt, goalie Braden Holtby, and right winger Jake Virtanen) it’s hard to say how much Vancouver has improved.

Last year’s 50-point campaign would’ve been worth just 74 in a full season. Only once since 2012-13 have the Canucks tallied more than 83 points (they put up 101 in 2014-15).

Los Angeles Kings

2020-21 season: 21-28-7 (49 points). 6th in West; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 83.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

This is a rebuilding team that didn’t do anything splashy, acquiring center Phillip Danault from Montreal as a free agent and trading for Viktor Arvidsson from Nashville for a couple of picks. Last season was a 72-point pace for Los Angeles.

Of course, everything could change for Los Angeles if it makes a big move for Buffalo Sabres star Jack Eichel, as rumors suggested for months. Well, assuming Eichel can return in the second half after having neck surgery — and assuming he doesn’t quit on the team after two or three close losses in April.

San Jose Sharks

2020-21 season: 21-28-7 (49 points). 7^th in West; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 83.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

The good news is they no longer have Martin Jones and his sub-.900 save percentage last year. The bad news is they replace him with James Reimer, who barely skims .900. And forward Evander Kane is under investigation for betting on games and faking vaccine cards. And teal is still a dumb color for a pro franchise to wear.

As for this projected total, it’s clear the betting market believes the Sharks — who finished with 96-plus points 14 times in 15 full seasons from 2003-04 to 2018-19 — are headed for dark times.

Anaheim Ducks

2020-21 season: 17-30-9 (43 points). 8^th in West; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 71.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

It’s one thing to be projected as the third-worst team in California. To be projected as the third-worst team in the entire league. That takes some effort. But, hey, the Ducks probably won’t be as bad as Arizona or Buffalo.

The post NHL Season Point Totals: Knights Should Shine Bright In Pacific appeared first on Props.

NHL training camps are in full swing, and with it, a statistically significant uptick at the population level in Zamboni accidents. But that’s not what we’re here for, is it?

No, we’re here for another banner year in the National Hockey League, where everything new is old again: new old divisions aligned, new old 82-game schedule in place, new old Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs. It’s nice to see the timeless classics are back in style.

Let’s have us a little spin through 2021-22 season points totals, shall we? We begin with the Atlantic Division.

According to PointsBet USA sports analyst Michael Korn, there aren’t any surprises in the early NHL betting action. The Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning lead the way in terms of number of Stanley Cup futures tickets written at PointsBet. On the handle side of things, it’s Avs, Lightning, and Golden Knights. As for season point totals, betting on Colorado has been robust enough to push the Over to -140.

All odds are per PointsBet USA as of 11 a.m. ET on Oct. 5.

Tampa Bay Lightning

2020-21 season: 36-17-3 (75 points). 3rd in Central, won Stanley Cup
Projected points total: 106.5 (Over -110 / Under -120)

We begin with the two-time defending champs who, not coincidentally, are tied for the highest number on the board. You’ll note below a few other 100-point players in this division because those teams have the distinct pleasure of playing a bunch of games against three division foes with the lowest totals listed at PointsBet.

It’s true, the ’Ning lost the entire formidable Yanni Gourde-Blake Coleman-Barclay Goodrow line in the Great Tampa Capocalypse. Normally, this would be a recipe for disaster, but then, normally teams don’t still have Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Steve Stamkos.

In 2018-19, the last full season the league played, the Lightning notched 128 points. Over the last five seasons, Tampa would have averaged 110 points per season if you projected out their 2019-2020 and 2021 rates to a full season.

Toronto Maple Leafs

2020-21 season: 35-14-7 (77 points). 1st in North; eliminated in 1st round by Montreal
Projected points total: 106.5 (Over -120 / Under -110)

At some point, the Leafs have to break through and go to their first Stanley Cup Final since 1967, don’t they? Will it be with this squad that’s mostly unchanged since last year’s team? Goalie Frederik Andersen decamped for Carolina, while Carolina’s backup Petr Mrazek came north to play handcuff to top netminder Jack Campbell. Center Zach Hyman is gone, but forwards Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander are only 24, 24, and 25 respectively this season. Fellow forward John Tavares is an elder statesman at 31.

This group is talented, young, and can easily take steps forward. Which gives Toronto’s tortured fanbase an easy wait-til-next-year storyline to hang their hat on in the case of yet another playoff flameout. (For what it’s worth: The Leafs have never eclipsed 106 points in any season, topping out at 105 in 2017-18.)

Boston Bruins

2020-21 season: 33-16-7 (73 points). 3rd in East; eliminated in 2nd round by New York Islanders
Projected points total: 103.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)

Veteran center David Krejci is gone, and goaltender Tuukka Rask (hip surgery) is out until January or February (if he ends up coming back at all, as he remains a free agent). Boston signed Linus Ullmark to hold things down in net in the meantime. Other notable signings include left-wingers Nick Foligno, Erik Haula, and Tomas Nosek, the latter two in a bid to remake Boston’s roster as Golden Knights East.

The Bruins do still have defenseman Brad Marchand, so we understand your impulse to instinctively spite-mash the “Under” button on your app of choice. Just keep in mind: The Bruins tallied 112 points in 2017-18 and 107 points in 2018-19, the last two instances when the NHL played a full 82-game schedule.

Florida Panthers

2020-21 season: 37-14-5 (79 points). 2nd in Central; eliminated in 1st round by Tampa Bay
Projected points total: 101.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)

There was a time when being the second-best hockey team in Florida would be a source of deep shame. Now we all just have to bow to our new Sunshine State Ice Overlords.

Defenseman Aaron Ekblad makes his triumphant return after shattering his leg against the Stars in March. Center Sam Reinhart now dons a Panthers sweater after pouting his way out of Buffalo, and Florida also signed ageless center Joe Thornton (actual age: 42).

The Panthers have cracked the century mark just once in the franchise’s 28-year history, when they tallied 103 points in 2015-16.

Montreal Canadiens

2020-21 season: 24-21-11 (59 points). 4th in North; Stanley Cup runner up
Projected points total: 89.5 (Over -125 / Under -105)

Would the Habs have made the Stanley Cup final last year if they had played in the Atlantic the way the Hockey Gods intended? No. Is it weird having both Stanley Cup finalists in the same division this year? Sure is. Did leaving Carey Price unprotected traumatize die-hard Canadiens fans who still haven’t fully processed the Patrick Roy trade? You know it did.

The Habs did belie the “easy path through the North” narrative with a Corsi percentage of 54.5, trailing only the beastly Avalanche, which makes them an intriguing play at a low number here. Then again, Montreal has crossed the 90-point threshold just four times in the last eight full seasons.

Detroit Red Wings

2020-21 season: 19-25-10 (48 points). 7th in central; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 79.5 (Over -105 / Under -125)

The last time the Wings were north of 80 points was in the 2015-16 season. The good news is they were better last year, with 48 points (projected 71 over a full season) than they were after bottoming out two years ago. The team’s Corsi For was the worst in the league last year, so there’s nowhere to go but up. The bad news is, you know, the whole part about all those games against Tampa Bay, Toronto, Florida, and Boston.

Interestingly, this number opened at 77.5, but there’s been enough Over action to push Detroit’s total up two wins.

Ottawa Senators

2020-21 season: 23-28-5 (51 points). 6th in North; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 77.5 (Over -110 / Under -120)

GM Pierre Dorion declared the rebuild in Ottawa done. That seems ambitious after four dreadful seasons in which the team finished in last or next to last in its division each year.

If you find yourself buying what Dorion is selling just note: The Sens finished with 67 and 64 points in the last two full NHL seasons (and mustered just 62 in the pandemic-reduced 71-game campaign in 2019-20).

Buffalo Sabres

2020-21 season: 15-34-7 (37 points). 8th in East; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 69.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)

Last year’s team projected to 54 points if the season was 82 games. Pretty bad, right? Well, this year’s Sabres are worse by any measure, other than behind the bench where then-interim-now-as-permanent-as-the-job-gets-in-Buffalo coach Don Granato got the Sabres playing much better after the overmatched Ralph Kruger was sacked.

Granato leads a franchise that has cracked 70 points just three times since 2012-13. And unless he has a bead on getting Gilbert Perrault circa 1976 back in the blue and gold, it’s going to be another year of season ticket holders watching Bills replays to get them through April and May. And that’s before the team inevitably trades former captain Jack Eichel for pennies on the dollar.

The post NHL Season Point Totals: Lightning Pace Top-Heavy Atlantic Division appeared first on Props.