With Selection Sunday just three weeks away, we’ve officially hit the home stretch of the 2021-22 college basketball season. And as scheduling fate would have it, that home stretch begins with a quartet of matchups on the Saturday college basketball odds board pitting Top 25 teams against one another.

The most anticipated of them all tips off in prime time in Waco, Texas, where No. 5 Kansas will attempt to complete a season sweep of No. 10 Baylor in a critical Big 12 showdown. A pair of pivotal SEC battles are also featured on the Saturday college basketball odds menu, as No. 6 Kentucky travels to No. 18 Arkansas and No. 3 Auburn visits No. 17 Tennessee.

At the back end of the day’s betting card is a West Coast Conference rematch between No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 23 St. Mary’s. Also out West, No. 16 USC pays a visit to Oregon in a key Pac-12 clash.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on opening/current lines and action for all five of these games that dot the Saturday college basketball odds landscape. Check back throughout the day for action updates.

Saturday College Basketball Odds and Betting Action

No. 5 Kansas Vs No. 10 Baylor (8 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 7:40 PM ET: Less than a half-hour before tipoff, there’s been no change in the point spread for this marquee matchup, as Baylor remains -2.5 at WynnBet. Tickets and cash continue to favor the home team, as 72.3% of wagers and 64.5% of the handle is on the Bears. The total also is holding steady at 148 (down from the opener of 149.5).

It’s nearly a dead-even split in ticket count, with 51.1% of bets on the Over. However, a hefty 80.9% of the cash is on on the Under.

UPDATE 3:25 PM ET: Baylor remains -2.5 at WynnBet, same as the opening line. The Bears are still seeing the majority of the action, with 73.3% of tickets and 57.8% of handle on the defending champions. The total remains at 148, with a slight majority of the tickets on the Under (54.6%) and nearly all the dollars on the Under (98.1%).

UPDATE 1:30 PM ET: As of noon ET, Wynn Bet had Baylor holding firm at the opening number of -2.5. The Bears were catching the majority of the action, as 75.7% of early spread bets and 78.9% of the money was on the home team. The total was down 1.5 points, from an opener of 149.5 to 148. While there was a 50-50 split in terms of ticket count on the total, the Under was catching an eye-popping 98.4% of early cash.

UPDATE 11:30 AM ET: Fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season, Kansas (23-4, SU, 13-13-1 ATS) heads to Waco looking to move closer to clinching the Big 12 regular-season title by beating Baylor for the second time in three weeks.

The Jayhawks destroyed in-state rival Kansas State 102-83 on Tuesday, easily cashing as a 12-point home favorite. KU has now won four in a row and six of its last seven (5-2 ATS). With Big 12 leading scorer Ochai Abaji (20.2 points per game) leading the way, the Jayhawks have tallied at least 70 points in seven straight contests.

Like Kansas, Baylor (23-5 SU, 14-12-2 ATS) also picked up a victory early this week, but it wasn’t nearly as easy, as the defending national champs needed overtime to edge Oklahoma State 66-64 as a 4.5-point road chalk. The Bears have won four of five, but they’re 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven games. They’re also 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight at home.

Baylor, which trails first-place Kansas by 1.5 games in the Big 12 standings, will be looking to avenge its worst loss of the season, an 83-59 drubbing at Kansas on Feb. 5. The Jayhawks cashed as 2.5-point faves in that one, moving to 6-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings.

Although Kansas was favored in each of its first 27 games this season, DraftKings opened Baylor as a 3-point favorite. That spread remains -3, although 81% of the tickets/54% of the money are on the Jayhawks.

The total has plummeted to 147 from an opener of 150. That movement is in line with this solid trend: Seven of the last 10 Kansas-Baylor clashes have stayed Under the total, including four of the past five. [/accordion]

No. 1 Gonzaga Vs No. 23 St. Mary’s (7 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 7:40 PM ET: Gonzaga is pegged to -10.5 on the Saturday college basketball odds board at WynnBet, down from the opener of -11 but unchanged from three hours ago. St. Mary’s is still the preferred side among bettors as far as the spread is concerned, with 56.5% of wagers and 74.8% of money on the Gaels.

The total has not budged from WynnBet’s opening line of 145, even though the Over is getting the vast majority of bets (82.1%) and a solid majority of cash (58.5%).

UPDATE 3:25 PM ET: WynnBet customers believe there’s value on the home underdog in this one, as host St. Mary’s has shifted from +11 to +10.5 on the Saturday college basketball odds board. A slight majority of the tickets (57.7%) are on the Gaels, but they’re attracting a sizeable chunk of the cash (70.9%). The total remains at WynnBet’s opening number of 145, but there’s been solid two-way action with 81.3% of bets on the Over and 61.2% of the cash on the Under.

UPDATE 11:30 AM ET: For the second time in two weeks, No. 23 St. Mary’s (22-6 SU, 18-9-1 ATS) will attempt to hand Gonzaga its first West Coast Conference loss of the season — only this time, the Gaels get to host the top-ranked team in the land.

St. Mary’s traveled to Spokane, Washington, on Feb. 12 and gave Gonzaga a good battle before eventually falling 74-58, pushing as a 16-point road underdog. Since then, the Gaels have ripped off three straight wins (2-1 ATS), including Thursday’s 60-46 rout of San Diego laying 12 points on the road.

St. Mary’s — which has the ninth-best point-spread record in the nation — is 11-2 SU/9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games and 15-0 at home this season (10-4 ATS).

Gonzaga (23-2 SU, 14-10-2 ATS) stretched its winning streak to 17 in a row with Thursday’s 89-73 takedown of San Francisco as a 10.5-point road fave. The Bulldogs are 10-5-2 ATS during their hot streak, which stretches back to Dec. 9. Gonzaga has won its five conference road games by an average of 26.2 points per contest, going 4-1 ATS along the way.

The Zags, who are riding a seven-game winning streak against St. Mary’s (4-2-1 ATS), opened as an 11-point road chalk at DraftKings. The line remains -11, despite lopsided action on the visitors as 77% of early tickets and 87% of early money is on Gonzaga. It’s the 23rd time in 25 games this season that the Zags have been a double-digit favorite.

The Over/Under has jumped to 145 after opening at 143.5 early Friday evening. Nearly all of the action at DraftKings is on the Over, which is catching 97% of all tickets and 99% of dollars. [/accordion]

No. 16 USC Vs Oregon (7 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 7:40 PM ET: Oregon is holding strong as a 4.5-point home favorite at WynnBet, which is up two points from the overnight line of -2.5. However, USC is now getting most of the support, with 60% of tickets and 52.6% of money on the Trojans.

The total is unchanged from the opener of 139, although it’s one-sided action on the Over in terms of both tickets (77.8%) and money (93.4%).

UPDATE 3:25 PM ET: After a significant two-point swing in the spread, Oregon has settled as a 4.5-point favorite at WynnBet. Some 6 1/2 hours before tip, this Pac-12 matchup is setting up as a Pros vs. Joes tussle, with 57.3% of all bets on road underdog USC and 53.5% of the handle on the host Ducks.

There’s been no movement in the total, which remains at the opening number of 139. That said, 80% of tickets and 94.7% of money has poured in on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 AM ET: USC (24-4 SU, 13-15 ATS) takes a five-game winning streak to Eugene, Oregon, for a late-night Pac-12 battle with the Ducks, who need a victory to enhance their shaky NCAA Tournament résumé.

The Trojans required overtime to get past last-place Oregon State on Thursday, prevailing 94-91 but never threatening to cash as an 11-point road favorite. Although USC has been getting the job done on the court (7-1 SU last eight), it has been failing miserably at the betting window, going 2-7 ATS in the last nine.

Oregon (18-10 SU, 11-16 ATS) held off No. 12 UCLA on Thursday 68-63 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Despite the victory, the Ducks are just 2-3 SU in their last five games. However, they’ve now cashed in consecutive contests following an 0-5 ATS funk. Oregon also had no trouble with USC in Los Angeles back in mid-January, rolling 79-69 as a six-point underdog.

At DraftKings, Oregon opened -1.5 (-115) Friday evening but has shot all the way up to -4 (-115). Although 52% of tickets are on the Ducks, 92% of the cash at DraftKings is on the home team. The fact Oregon is laying points in this one is interesting from this perspective: During its ongoing 2-7 ATS slump, USC is 0-for-7 as a favorite but 2-for-2 as an underdog. In fact, the Trojans are 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS as a pup this season.

The total opened and remains at 138.5, with a slight juice modification of -115 to the Over. Early on, there’s lopsided action on the Over, at 82% of tickets and 89% of money. [/accordion]

No. 3 Auburn Vs No. 17 Tennessee (4 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 3:25 PM ET: Less than an hour before tipoff, Tennessee is still holding at -3, down from the opener of -3.5. Auburn is getting the bulk of the action, though, with 83.6% of tickets and 56.6% of cash on the Tigers. The total also hasn’t budged from the morning line of 140.5, which is up a point from the 139.5 opener. The betting public is anticipating a high-scoring game, as 77.8% of all wagers and 54.3% of the dough is on the Over.

UPDATE 1:30 PM ET: Tennessee opened -3.5 (-105) on the Saturday college basketball odds board at WynnBet, but had dipped to -3 (-110) by about noon ET. Auburn was taking the majority of bets (87%), but the Vols were attracting slightly more dollars (51.7%). The total jumped from 139.5 to 140.5 on significant two-way action, with 81% of tickets on the Over but 78.2% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11:30 AM ET: Tennessee (20-7 SU, 16-11 ATS) will try to remain unbeaten at home — and hang in the race for the SEC regular-season crown — when it welcomes No. 3 Auburn to Knoxville.

The 17^th-ranked Vols pounded Missouri 80-61 as a 10.5-point road favorite on Tuesday, and in the process improved to 9-1 SU/6-4 ATS in their last 10 SEC games. Tennessee is 14-0 in its building this season, including 7-0 against SEC rivals. However, the Vols have covered in just three of those seven league home games.

Auburn (25-3 SU, 18-10 ATS) stands alone in first place in the SEC, one game clear of Kentucky and two games ahead of both Arkansas and Tennessee. Most recently, the Tigers took down Ole Miss 77-64 on Wednesday, but came up short as a 15.5-point home favorite.

Since starting the season 17-5 ATS, coach Bruce Pearl’s squad has cashed just once in its last five outings. Auburn also has failed to cover in four consecutive road games.

Despite being 0-6 SU/ATS in its last six battles with the Tigers — including five losses as a favorite — Tennessee was installed as a 3.5-point home chalk (-105) at DraftKings. The Vols are now down to -3 flat, with 82% of tickets and 78% of money on Auburn.

The total opened at 139.5 but is now sitting at 140 (Over -120). That line move makes sense, given that the last eight series meetings have gone Over the total. [/accordion]

No. 6 Kentucky Vs No. 18 Arkansas (2 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 1:30 PM ET: Wynn Bet installed Arkansas as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line now sits at -2. There’s a Pros vs Joes situation developing on this point spread, as 57.4% of tickets are on Kentucky, but 62.9% of money is on the Razorbacks. The total opened at 146.5 and is now down to 144. As with the side, the total is seeing two-way action, with 67.4% of bets on the Over, but a whopping 87.5% of the cash is on the Under.

UPDATE 11:30 AM ET: It’s not often that you see the sixth-ranked team in the country as an underdog against that’s barely inside the Top 20. Then again, it’s not often that you see a team on a 12-1 SU/ATS roll. That’s the case with No. 18 Arkansas (22-6 SU, 18-10 ATS), which opened as a 2-point home favorite against No. 6 Kentucky at DraftKings.

The Razorbacks continued their blazing-hot run Tuesday at Florida, winning 82-74 and cashing as a 1.5-point road favorite. Arkansas has now covered the spread in nine consecutive games overall, and its only blemish on the scoreboard in the last 13 games was a one-point loss at Alabama on Feb. 15. The Hogs also have won seven straight at home (6-1 ATS).

Kentucky (23-5 SU, 13-15 ATS) arrives in Fayetteville, Arkansas, fresh off back-to-back home wins over Alabama (90-81 as a 5.5-point favorite) and LSU (71-66 as a 7.5-point chalk). The Wildcats are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games, but 6-9 ATS in their last 15. They also have cashed just once in their last five SEC road outings.

At DraftKings, Arkansas is up a tick from -2 to -2.5, although 67% of all wagers and 58% of the cash is on Kentucky. The total opened at 147.5 early Friday evening but has since tumbled 4.5 points to 143. The Over is getting 77% of the tickets and 60% of the money. [/accordion]

The post Saturday College Basketball Odds: Baylor Still A Slight Favorite Vs Kansas appeared first on Props.

At roughly 7 p.m. PT Thursday, the massive LED odds board inside The SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas will go pitch black. Moments later, a member of Jay Kornegay’s team will flip a switch, and that odds board will illuminate with literally hundreds of Super Bowl 56 proposition wagers.

Within minutes, tens of thousands of dollars will change hands between bettors and ticket writers. Those bettors will wager on everything from the passing yardage total for Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, to whether either team will convert a fourth down, to which team will call the first timeout of Super Bowl 56.

This Super Bowl props reveal has become something of a holiday-like tradition at The SuperBook, where bettors — professional and recreational alike — gather for the annual lighting.

It’s one that slowly evolved from another tradition: A slew of Super Bowl blowouts.

The Cure For Super Bowl Boredom 

38-9. 38-16. 46-10. 39-20. 42-10. 55-10. 52-17.

For more than 15 years, stretching from the early 1980s to the late 1990s, the biggest event in all of sports had a running theme: consistently lopsided results.

From Super Bowl 18 in 1984 (when the Los Angeles Raiders blasted Washington 38-9) until Super Bowl 33 in 1999 (when Broncos QB John Elway ended his Hall of Fame career with a 34-19 rout of the Falcons), the NFL’s marquee game was almost always a laugher.

Over that 16-year span, 13 Super Bowls were decided by double digits; nine were decided by at least 19 points; and five were decided by more than four touchdowns.

More often than not, by the time the first quarter ended, the only intrigue that remained on Super Bowl Sunday revolved around commercials and halftime performers.

Back in Nevada, the Super Bowl snoozefests that dominated the 1980s sucked the life out of sportsbooks and ballrooms where bettors gathered en masse to watch the Big Game. For sportsbook operators like a young Kornegay, who in 1989 joined the team at the Imperial Palace on the Las Vegas Strip, the challenge was straightforward: Figure out a way to keep bettors engaged for all four quarters of the Super Bowl, regardless of the numbers on the scoreboard.

And with that, the Super Bowl proposition menu — which at first was extremely limited — began to expand.

“What really motivated us were the games themselves,” says Kornegay, the vice president of race and sports operations for The SuperBook, where he’s been since 2004. “Back in the 1980s and early 1990s, almost every Super Bowl was a blowout. They were very boring games. So that’s what really got this going: Let’s try to make up some [more] propositions to keep everybody interested for the whole game. That’s exactly what we did — we came up with propositions that weren’t going to be decided until well into the second half.”

‘The Fridge’ Opens The Door

It’s impossible to know what oddsmaker — or, more likely, bookie — cooked up the first Super Bowl proposition wager, or when. But it’s very easy to pinpoint the precise moment when these “side bets” landed on the public’s radar:

On January 26, 1986, the big-bad Chicago Bears were 10-point favorites against the New England Patriots. Prior to kickoff, there wasn’t much doubt that the 15-1 Bears would win their first Super Bowl title that day (and win it they did, 46-10).

There was, however, doubt about something: Would fun-loving, gap-toothed, 340-pound defensive lineman William “The Refrigerator” Perry — who scored two touchdowns on five rushing attempts in the regular season — take a handoff and cross the goal line in the New Orleans Superdome? (As it turned out, the answer was yes.)

While the Perry prop garnered national attention — and cost at least one Las Vegas sportsbook six figures — proposition offerings remained scarce over the next several years. In fact, during his first couple of years at the Imperial Palace, Kornegay’s list of Super Bowl prop bets numbered around 30 and fit on two sides of a single sheet of paper.

“That’s kind of hard to imagine now,” he says with a laugh. “But that’s what it was. And the props were very generic. But they were something that got attention from bettors.”

With each passing Super Bowl blowout, though, Kornegay and his team started tacking on additional props. They also started getting innovative, even dialing up the first cross-sport prop ahead of the Broncos-49ers Super Bowl in January 1990.

Sensing that Joe Montana and the heavily favored 49ers would put up big points against the Denver defense, Kornegay’s boss, Kirk Brooks, suggested this prop: Who will score more points — the 49ers on Super Bowl Sunday or Michael Jordan versus the New Jersey Nets the previous night? Niners backers won on that prop, as San Francisco rolled 55-10, while Jordan put up 39 points against the Nets.

“It was the best team in football versus the best basketball player of all time,” Kornegay says. “That prop was very popular.”

And not just among bettors, either. Other sportsbook operators up and down The Strip cribbed the prop and offered it to their customers — with some even taking credit for creating it.

“You’d see them in interviews being asked, ‘Hey, how did you come up with this great prop?’ and the response was something like, ‘Well, I was thinking, you know, Michael Jordan is playing on Super Bowl weekend, so why not …” Kornegay recalls while laughing. “And Kirk was so infuriated at that. I told him, ‘Ah, just be flattered.’ We ran with that joke for years afterward.”

Not lost in that anecdote is the fact that the Imperial Palace sportsbook was indeed blazing a trail with its Super Bowl props. In fact, as the phenomenon grew steadily in the early 1990s, Kornegay estimates his shop was “doubling the market” on the number of props presented to customers.

That said, he’s quick to downplay that he and his colleagues were pioneers of any sort.

“A lot of people give us credit for ‘inventing’ certain propositions,” Kornegay says. “And I always tell people, ‘Listen, we didn’t come up with these. They were available. We just added to the menu and got really creative with some of them.’”

That creativity went to new heights in January 1995.

Give The Chargers Some Props 

Prior to the 1994 season, the San Diego Chargers had never appeared in a Super Bowl (and they haven’t in 28 seasons since). But in January 1995, the Lightning Bolts caught fire in the postseason, stunning the heavily favored Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game to punch their ticket to Miami for Super Bowl 29.

Awaiting the Chargers in South Beach were none other than Steve Young, Jerry Rice and the still-dominant 49ers. Knowing they had a mismatch on their hands, Vegas oddsmakers did two things: They installed the 49ers as an 18.5-point favorite — to this day, the largest point spread in Super Bowl history — and they went bonkers with their Super Bowl proposition menu.

Once again, Kornegay’s crew led the charge.

“There was no doubt who was going to win that game,” Kornegay says of the 49ers-Chargers clash. “So we took the proposition menu to another level that year — we probably had 150-200 different propositions on that game.

“Things had gained momentum prior to 1995, but it really took off that year when we came up with some crazy propositions.”

While 49ers and Chargers fans will remember Super Bowl 29 for turning into the blowout everybody saw coming — San Francisco cruised 49-26 — sportsbook operators will remember it as the day the Super Bowl props game changed forever.

By the late 1990s, most bookmakers were writing more action on props than the game itself — something that continues to this day. By the time The SuperBook takes its last bet right before Rams-Bengals kicks off, Kornegay estimates 70 percent of all money wagered on Super Bowl 56 will be on props.

And that two-sided single sheet of paper that used to contain about 30 Super Bowl prop bets back around 1990? At The SuperBook, it’s now as thick as a small book, with about 500 props printed, front to back, on nearly three dozen legal-size pages held together (barely) with a staple.

“It was kind of a shock to us how popular these things got,” Kornegay says. “But it’s gotten to the point where every single play in the [Super Bowl] is involved in at least one proposition.

“It even starts before the game. You should be in a sportsbook anywhere in Nevada during the coin toss. You’d be like, ‘Oh my gosh, I can’t believe how many people bet the coin toss!’ And it’s literally a coin toss! But it gets really quiet, then a player [on the field] calls heads, the referee announces ‘Heads’, and there’s a roar in the room.”

No House Advantage

Another thing that’s changed over the years: The general public’s perception of prop bets. There was a time not long ago when sportsbooks were chastised for trying to entice unsavvy bettors into making “sucker bets” that overwhelmingly favor the house.

Today, everyone recognizes that value opportunities exist with prop bets (in all sports). It’s why some professional bettors completely eschew the Super Bowl side and total and instead invest solely in various prop wagers.

“Soon after the proposition menu began to expand, we had a number of sharp players betting these things,” Kornegay says. “That grabbed our attention and made us realize, ‘We really have to focus on this, because there are some really sharp people out there whom we respect who are betting these props. So we have to make sure we book them correctly.’”

For nearly 20 years, that job at The SuperBook has fallen to a pair of Kornegay’s trusted comrades: Ed Salmons and Jeff Sherman. That duo begins mapping out a game plan for Super Bowl props two weeks before the matchup is even set. Some 48 hours after the participants are determined, Salmons, Sherman and a few colleagues lock themselves in a room for more than two days, crunching numbers and establishing odds for every prop.

Additional manpower is required to input each prop into the computer; proofread and assemble the hard-copy packets; and write and review disclaimers. The latter is particularly important.

“We’re not looking to trick anybody,” Kornegay says. “The Super Bowl brings out a very novice [betting] crowd, so we want to make it clear as day for all our customers that they understand exactly what it is they’re betting. Transparency is the name of the game, which is why we clearly state the rules and disclaimers for everybody to see.”

‘The Grandfather Of All Props’ 

The most popular Super Bowl prop bet? It’s almost always “Which player will score the first touchdown?” As for Kornegay’s favorite, he leans toward an oldie but a goodie: Will either team score three consecutive times (not including points-after-touchdowns) without the other team scoring once?

“We call that the grandfather of all props,” Kornegay says. “Because it’s the first one that really dug deep and forced bettors to stop and think before betting it.”

He also likes it for another reason: “It actually came from a customer. There are a handful of propositions today that are on the menu each year that were suggested by our patrons. We still [get suggestions] every year. And while we pretty much have it all covered now, as long as any [suggested prop] isn’t too complicated and there’s no gray area, we’ll consider it.”

And why not? After all, the goal is the same today as it was more than 30 years ago: Keep bettors engrossed in the sports world’s grandest spectacle until the final whistle.

“A lot of us have been working together since the early 1990s — a lot of our team is still the same,” Kornegay says. “So we do have a sense of pride that we were able to give our customers unique offerings to help make the Super Bowl a little more fun — regardless of what the score of the game is.

“So even though the game might end up being boring, these propositions keep things lively until the clock runs out.”

The post Super Bowl Props: How These Side Bets Became So Popular appeared first on Props.

The schedule tells us there are only two NFL playoff games to wager on this week. But we know there are more than two betting opportunities — way more!

Odds boards from coast to coast are overflowing with NFL conference championship game props. We already gave you several of our favorite player prop bets for the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game. Now we reveal our top five game-specific prop bets for each contest, starting with the Bengals vs. Chiefs showdown in Kansas City.

Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel and updated as of 7 p.m. ET on Jan. 28.

Cincinnati Bengals Vs Kansas City Chiefs: First Quarter

The prop: 10 Total Combined Points
The odds: Over -120/Under +100

Kansas City and Cincinnati each have played one first-quarter Under and one first-quarter Over in the postseason. But when these squads squared off in Ohio back on Jan. 2, the Chiefs held a 14-7 lead through the first 15 minutes of play.

Including that contest, six of Kansas City’s last nine games have featured more than 10 opening-quarter points (and one of the exceptions — a Week 5 home game against Denver — saw the Chiefs leading 10-0 after the first).

Given their offensive firepower, it’s probably not shocking to hear that the Chiefs are averaging 7.2 first-quarter points per game, which is tied with Dallas for tops in the NFL (playoffs included). At home, Kansas City is putting up 6.7 ppg (which ranks third).

Now for the “but” (and it’s a significant one): Cincinnati is netting just 4.4 first-quarter points per outing, which ranks 14^th — and that number dips all the way to 3.2 ppg on the road (18^th). And while the Chiefs and Bills each picked up first-quarter touchdowns last week, it’s the only time in Kansas City’s last six playoff games that there were more than 10 first-quarter points (one landed right on 10).

Then there’s this: Even including last week, the Chiefs have scored a total of 30 first-quarter points in their last nine playoff games (3.3 ppg). Total K.C. points in its last seven postseason games in front of the Arrowhead Stadium faithful: 20.

Yes, the Over looks enticing given the plethora of playmakers on both offenses. But it smells like a trap.

Kansas City Chiefs

The prop: 31.5 Total Points Scored
The odds: Over -110/Under -120

There’s a good chance you’re looking at this prop and summoning your best John McEnroe impression.

Didn’t the Chiefs just put up 42 points against the Bills … a week after putting up 42 against the Steelers? And didn’t they put up 48 and 36 in their previous two home games?

Yes, yes, and yes. And for that matter, Kansas City has tallied 31-plus points in six of its last seven games overall, averaging 37.3 points along the way.

So why is there juice to the Under here? Probably because the Chiefs fell a half-point short of this prop number in Cincinnati four weeks ago (34-31 loss). Also, the Bengals have held seven consecutive opponents under 32 points. Average points Cincinnati has surrendered during this stretch: 20.6 (that includes the 31 K.C. scored).

The Bengals’ D also has been stellar all season on the road, allowing an average of 16.9 points across nine games. Of course, none of those road opponents — Bears, Steelers, Lions, Ravens, Jets, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, and Titans — have a quarterback named Patrick Mahomes.

Exactly! And Kansas City beat this prop the last two years in the AFC Championship Game! True, but not by much (38 and 35 points). And don’t forget that in the 2019 title tilt, the Chiefs lost to the Patriots 34 to … 31.

Once again, the Over seems like the play here — and it might be. But it’s not exactly a stone-cold lock in the AFC Championship prop bets market.

Cincinnati Bengals

The prop: 2.5 Total Touchdowns Scored
The odds: Over -122/Under -106

With each hour that passes, Cincinnati’s upset of the Titans last week becomes more and more remarkable. How often do you see an underdog win a playoff game … on the road … when their quarterback gets sacked nine times … and the team produces one touchdown?

(We guess the answer to that question is: Every time the opposing team’s quarterback is Ryan Tannehill!)

All snide remarks aside, the Bengals’ offense has forgotten to pack its energy drinks during recent road trips. Since its bye in Week 10, Cincinnati has scored a total of eight touchdowns in its last four road games. Three came in Week 11 at the Raiders, and another was a defensive score in the regular-season finale at Cleveland. (Granted, Joe Burrow and most of the offense didn’t play in the latter contest.)

All that said, the Bengals still have tallied at least three touchdowns in 13 of 17 games in which Burrow has been under center.

What about the Chiefs’ defense? Since an impressive six-game midseason stretch in which no opponent scored more than two touchdowns — a span in which it yielded a total of 65 points — Kansas City has given up at least three TDs in five of the last six.

Kansas City Chiefs

The prop: Will the Chiefs score points in every quarter?
The odds: Yes -135/No -110

The Chiefs have spread the wealth during their insane seven-game scoring binge, collecting points in 26 of 28 quarters. And if you throw in overtime victories over the Chargers in Week 15 and Bills last week, K.C. has lit up the scoreboard in 28 of the last 30 stanzas.

But wait, there’s more: Since a Week 10 victory over the Raiders, the Chiefs have been blanked in a quarter just four times in their last 10 games — including the two OT contests, that’s 42 quarters!

Makes you wonder why there isn’t more juice to the Over on this prop, right? Well, one of those scoreless quarters occurred in Week 17 at Cincinnati — after putting up two touchdowns apiece in the first and second frames, Kansas City was blanked in the third. In fact, Patrick Mahomes and Co. managed one measly field goal in the final 30 minutes of that defeat.

The Bengals’ D pitched a shutout in three of eight quarters in these playoffs — the Raiders failed to score in the opening quarter in the wild-card round, while the Titans bageled in the first and fourth stanzas last week. What’s more, since an ugly 41-16 home loss to the Browns in Week 9, Cincinnati’s opponents have posted at least one scoreless quarter in 11 consecutive games.

Among AFC Championship prop bets, this offering has an unstoppable force-versus-immovable object feel to it. But given what happened to the Chiefs in the second half in Cincinnati — and given that the Steelers blanked K.C. in the opening quarter of their wild-card game — we’d lean ever-so-slightly to the “no” here.

Cincinnati Bengals Vs Kansas City Chiefs

The prop: First team to score points
The odds: Bengals +135/Chiefs -165

After allowing an early field goal against the Raiders two weeks ago, the Bengals got on the board first last week, turning a Tannehill interception on the game’s first play into three quick points. It was just the second time in the last five road games that Cincinnati delivered the first score.

Meanwhile, Kansas City’s penchant for falling behind early in playoff games has continued in this postseason. The Steelers scored first (courtesy of a defensive touchdown) two weeks ago, while the Bills took the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a TD last week.

With that, the Chiefs have now surrendered the first score in seven of their last nine playoff games (including six of seven at home).

Yes, K.C. did jump out to a swift 14-0 lead over the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this month. But would be it be shocking to see the Chiefs once again come out a bit sluggish Sunday — perhaps with a bit of a lingering hangover after last week’s punch-counterpunch OT thriller? Not to us.

In this AFC Championship prop bets market, take the generous plus-money with Cincy, which desperately wants to deliver the first uppercut — not only to quiet the Arrowhead crowd but put the Chiefs on their heels. Really, the Bengals’ only shot of pulling off the upset is to play from ahead.

The post AFC Championship Prop Bets: Bengals Vs Chiefs Popular Game Props appeared first on Props.

There might only be four games on this weekend’s NFL playoff schedule, but that doesn’t mean there are only four wagering opportunities. Sportsbooks from coast to coast are offering dozens of NFL Divisional Round prop bets targeting individual players and teams, as well as game situations.

That means there are countless ways in which you can get your fill of playoff action throughout the weekend.

Here are Props.com’s five favorite NFL Divisional Round props for 49ers vs. Packers, a rematch of a Week 3 classic in San Francisco that saw Green Bay kick a game-winning field goal as time expired.

Odds via BetMGM, DraftKings, and The SuperBook, and updated as of 8:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 20. 

San Francisco 49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo

The prop: Longest Completion 35.5 Yards
The odds: Over -120/Under -110

All Jimmy G does is win. And all 49ers fans do is diss him. (Good thing Aaron “Thin Skin” Rodgers didn’t go No. 1 overall to San Francisco back in the day!)

Granted, Garoppolo’s performance in Dallas last week was hardly a masterpiece — he went just 16-for-25 for 172 yards and made some ill-advised decisions late. But he did have some success pushing the ball down the field, including a catch-and-run long completion of 37 yards to wideout Brandon Aiyuk.

Garoppolo has now completed a pass of at least 36 yards in four straight games overall, six of his last eight, and 11 of 16 on the season. That includes a 39-yard strike in the 49ers’ Week 3 home loss to Green Bay. Garoppolo’s long passes in road games this season: 37, 43, 56, 25, 48, 34, 83, 40 and 79.

Green Bay’s defense didn’t allow a catch of longer than 30 yards in its final two regular-season games, but the opposing QBs were Jared Goff (Lions) and Sean Mannion (Vikings). Prior to that, five straight quarterbacks completed at least one pass of 36-plus yards against the Packers. That includes Bears rookie Justin Fields — and he did it twice in Green Bay (54- and 46-yard completions).

Obviously, there are legit injury concerns with Garoppolo (thumb, shoulder), so make sure to keep an eye on his status before firing on the Over here.

Green Bay Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers

The prop: 261.5 Total Passing Yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115

Let’s be honest: We could’ve devoted this entire space to Rodgers props — and had at least five left over for another article.

We settled on this always-popular yardage prop for a few reasons. First, the number is nearly identical to how many yards Rodgers passed for in San Francisco back in late September (261). Secondly, this total is right around Rodgers’ per-game yardage average for the season (257.2). And lastly, the matchup is so damn good: The about-to-be-repeat MVP winner against a stellar pass defense.

About that head-to-head matchup in Week 3: Rodgers’ final completion was a 17-yarder to Davante Adams that set up Green Bay’s game-winning field goal, but left him a hair short of clearing this prop number. In fact, Rodgers failed to eclipse 261 passing yards in each of his first four games and six of his first eight.

Since returning from his COVID timeout, though, the future Hall of Famer has averaged 277.6 passing yards across eight games. And if you remove his 138-yard effort in Week 18 at Detroit (when Rodgers only played a half), that average jumps to 297.6, with Rodgers topping 261 yards in six of seven contests. Also, here are Rodgers’ yardage numbers in his last six games at Lambeau Field: 274, 292, 307, 341, 202, 288.

Of course, just as Rodgers has been sensational lately, so too has San Francisco’s pass defense. The 49ers held Dak Prescott and the high-octane Cowboys to 230 passing yards last week — and that’s the most they’ve permitted in the last five games. Even more impressive, since Week 2, San Francisco has given up more than 261 passing yards twice in 17 games.

San Francisco 49ers: WR/RB Deebo Samuel

The prop: 4.5 Total Receptions
The odds: Over -115/Under -115

With apologies to the guy mentioned directly above (and directly below), the 49ers’ breakout star just might be the most electrifying, can’t-take-your-eyes-off-him player on the field Saturday night. He’s certainly the most versatile, as Samuel has split time between wide receiver (his natural position) and running back since midseason.

The position split has been a boon to San Francisco’s offense, as Samuel combined for 1,770 rushing/receiving yards and 14 total touchdowns in the regular season, then added 110 yards and a score last week in Dallas. However, Samuel’s backfield responsibilities have significantly cut into his touches through the air.

The numbers: Through the 49ers’ first eight games, the former South Carolina star had 49 receptions (on 81 targets) and just six rushing attempts. In nine games since, the receptions/carries split is 31/63. As it pertains to this prop number, Samuel had five or more catches in eight of his first nine contests, but he’s done it only once since (nine catches in Week 16 at Tennessee).

Given Samuel’s production out of the backfield, there’s no way 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan stops handing him the rock (even though primary tailback Elijah Mitchell had 21 carries each of the last two weeks, after missing a month with an injury).

So the Under seems like the logical play in this NFL Divisional Round prop bets market. Although it’s worth mentioning that Samuel hauled in five of 10 targets against the Packers earlier this season.

Green Bay Packers: WR Davante Adams

The prop: Score Anytime Touchdown
The odds: -135

It’s not every week that a wide receiver is an odds-on favorite in the NFL props betting market to score a touchdown. Then again, not every wide receiver is Davante Adams. And not every wide receiver has Aaron Rodgers chucking pigskins in their direction. Adams hit paydirt 11 times this season, with most of that production coming in the second half (he had three TDs through his first nine games; eight in his last seven). The perennial Pro Bowler found the end zone at least once in five of those season-closing contests. And one of the two times he “bageled” was in Week 18 at Detroit, when he departed early in a meaningless game.

Rodgers looked Adams’ way repeatedly back in Week 3, with the duo connecting 12 times on 18 targets for 132 yards and one touchdown. That continued a career-long trend of Adams torturing the 49ers’ defense: In four meetings, he’s caught a whopping 39 passes for 480 yards and five TDs (including at least one in every game).

Given those impressive stats, it’s impossible to question why oddsmakers have installed Adams as a sizable favorite to score Saturday night — except to ask: “Why isn’t this prop juiced even more?”

Green Bay Packers: PK Mason Crosby

The prop: 1.5 Total Field Goals Made
The odds: Over -130/Under +100

First off, we apologize to all the fantasy football owners out there who rostered Crosby back in 2018 and had to sit through a kicking debacle for the ages in Detroit. We understand merely mentioning his name can trigger traumatizing PTSD.

We can only hope you didn’t go back to the Crosby well this season, as the onetime Mr. Automatic had his worst field-goal performance in nine years. Crosby connected on just 25 of 34 attempts (73.5%). And he was particularly brutal from 30-49 yards out, going 13-for-21 (61.9%).

To be fair, Crosby was rock solid down the stretch, splitting the uprights on 10 of his last 11 attempts, making the last seven in a row. But here’s the rub with respect to this prop: Those seven straight makes occurred across the final five games, during which Crosby kicked multiple field goals just once (a 3-for-3 effort at home against Minnesota in Week 17).

The post NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets: 49ers Vs Packers appeared first on Props.

Results from the NFL’s slate of Week 18 games didn’t just complete the league’s playoff puzzle. They also settled a handful of NFL season win totals that were undecided heading into the finale of the first-ever 17-game season.

Sure, certain teams had already fallen short of their insanely low expectations prior to Week 18 (we’re looking at you, Jacksonville). And others (like the Bengals and Titans) had already blown past their preseason projections. However, bettors holding NFL win total tickets for several squads were teetering on the edge of their seats this past Sunday, as game results determined whether those tickets would end up as cash or trash.

In the end, per BetMGM’s closing NFL regular-season win totals, 10 of 32 teams went Over their total; 18 teams stayed Under; and four pushed.

Below is a breakdown of results on 2021-22 NFL season win totals at BetMGM, followed by a recap from both the bettors’ and bookmakers’ perspectives.

NFL Regular Season Win Totals

Odds/results via BetMGM

Down The Stretch They Come

The most interesting Week 18 contest in the NFL season win totals market took place in Atlanta. The Falcons needed a victory to clear their 7.5 number, while the Saints needed a victory to hit their win total of 9. New Orleans prevailed 30-20 to secure a push for all BetMGM bettors who were on the Saints’ win total — and secure a win for those who were on Falcons Under 7.5.

In Buffalo, the Bills — who started the season 4-1 and appeared a cinch to finish with more than 11 victories — had to beat the woeful Jets in the season finale just to push their win-total number. Although things got a bit dicey in the second half, Buffalo pulled away for a 27-10 victory. That kept Bills Under bettors from cashing a winner and allowed Bills Over bettors to escape with a refund.

Other on-field results that impacted NFL season win totals in Week 18:

— The Buccaneers overcame a shaky start at home and torched the Panthers 41-17. With that, Tom Brady and crew crept Over their 12.5 win total.

— Houston, which entered the season with by far the lowest win total in the league at 4, reached that number following consecutive victories over the Jaguars and Chargers in Weeks 15 and 16. However, the Texans couldn’t snatch win No. 5, as they fell at the 49ers 23-7 in Week 17, then came up short against the Titans at home, losing 28-25.

— The Chargers started out 8-5 but arrived in Las Vegas on Sunday night needing a victory to get Over their 9.5 win total. They also needed a victory or a tie to get into the playoffs. Didn’t happen, as the Chargers went full Chargers, losing 35-32 at the gun in overtime.

— Like the Chargers, Indianapolis needed a Week 18 victory to secure a playoff berth and clear its season win total (9). Unlike the Chargers, the Colts faced the NFL’s worst team in the Jaguars. And yet, like the Chargers, Indy crashed in spectacular fashion, losing 26-11. With that, the Colts’ playoff dreams — and Colts Over 9 wins tickets — went up in smoke (although Colts Under bettors got a reprieve).

Underwhelming Projections 

Some seasons, oddsmakers are as sharp as an ice pick when it comes to setting NFL win totals. Other times, they’re less accurate than a rookie quarterback. This season? It was a mixed bag.

Of the league’s 32 teams, 11 finished on or within a half-game of their preseason win-total projection. Those teams: the Bills (11 projected/11 actual), Chargers (9.5/9), Chiefs (12.5/12), Colts (9/9), Dolphins (9.5/9), Falcons (7.5/7), 49ers (10.5/10), Patriots (9.5/10), Saints (9/9), Texans (4/4), and Vikings (8.5/8).

However, the other 21 teams all finished at least 1.5 games outside of their projection. And 13 of those 21 squads were at least 2.5 games away from their win total.

The biggest overachievers were from the AFC: The Titans (9-win total) went 12-5 and claimed the conference’s No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, the Bengals (6.5) and Raiders (7) each finished 10-7, and they’re are set to kick off Super Wild Card Weekend against each other on Saturday.

The biggest underachiever? You guessed it: Jacksonville, which had a 6.5 win-total projection and finished 3-14. Right on the heels of the Jaguars were the Giants (7 projected/4 actual) and Seahawks (10/7).

Browns Blindside Bettors

The Cleveland Browns finished 11-5 a year ago, the first time since 1994 that the perpetually moribund franchise won that many games. Oddsmakers were expecting more of the same this season — and so was the betting public.

BetMGM pegged the Browns’ 2021-22 win total at 10.5, which was tied with the Ravens, Packers, Rams, and 49ers for the third-highest in the league, trailing only the Chiefs (12.5) and Bucs (12). Despite having to lay some juice (-120), bettors were all-in on Cleveland: When it came to wagers on the team’s win total, 86 percent of the money and 77 percent of the tickets were on the Over.

Sure enough, the Browns reverted to their underperforming ways, finishing 8-9.

BetMGM customers also overwhelmingly supported the Over on the Chiefs (92% money/85% tickets); Panthers (97%/74%); Packers (89%/90%); Patriots (89%/81%); Rams (89%/85%); and Steelers (89%/79%). Of that group, only Kansas City and Carolina fell short of expectations.

On the low side of NFL regular-season win totals, bettors were especially confident that two teams would be dreadful: Jacksonville and Houston. The Under nabbed 83 percent of the money and 89 percent of the tickets on the Jags’ win total, while 92 percent of the money and 85 percent of the tickets on the Texans’ win total were on the Under. As noted above, Jacksonville fell far short of its win total; Houston pushed.

And The Winner Is …

So how did the age-old bettor vs. bookmaker battle shake out in this year’s NFL season win totals market? Let’s call it a draw, at least at BetMGM.

The most-bet Overs were Lions Over 5, Titans Over 9, and Broncos Over 8.5. Those teams finished with 3, 12, and 7 wins, respectively. So the bookmakers won that one, 2-1.

The most-bet Unders were the Lions Under 5 (clearly, bettors had a big difference of opinion on Detroit), Bengals Under 6.5, and Jaguars Under 6.5. Score that one 2-1 for bettors.

As for significant line moves during the summer, bettors made the right call on the Rams (win total opened 10; closed 10.5), Packers (10/10.5), Ravens (11/10.5), and Vikings (9/8.5). However, they misjudged two AFC West squads: The Broncos’ win total jumped from 7.5 to 8.5, and Denver finished 7-10. Kansas City’s total shifted from 12 to 12.5, but the Chiefs ended up 12-5.

The post NFL Season Win Totals Recap: Jaguars, Browns Among Slew Of Underperformers appeared first on Props.

As you ponder College Football Playoff National Championship prop bets today, think back to early December.

The biggest winners in the 2021 SEC Championship Game showdown between then-undefeated Georgia and one-loss Alabama back on Dec. 4? Not the Crimson Tide, who rolled to a 17-point victory as a 6-point underdog in Atlanta.

No, it was everyone in the college football betting market who hammered the Over on all the various props that oddsmakers offered. With 65 total points — 62 of which were scored after the first quarter — and nearly 1,000 yards of total offense, the Over cashed on virtually every game- and player-specific prop.

Are we headed for another Mid-American Conference-like track meet tonight when the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs run it back in Indianapolis (this time, for all the marbles)? Or will the 2021-22 turn into the defensive slugfest oddsmakers anticipated the first time around? 

We’ll find out soon enough. But one thing we already know: Those oddsmakers aren’t about to get blindsided again, as their player and game prop numbers are higher for Round 2 of Georgia-Bama than Round 1.

Here are our top five CFP National Championship prop bets.

Odds via DraftKings and The SuperBook, and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on January 10.

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Alabama Total Points Scored 

The prop: 24.5
The odds: Over +100/Under -120

For most bettors, the initial instinct here is to hammer the Over — especially with even-money juice. After all, the Crimson Tide put up 41 points on Georgia’s (supposedly) impenetrable defense just five weeks ago. 

Alabama followed that with a 27-point effort against a rock-solid Cincinnati defense in the College Football Playoff semifinal (and one gets the sense 27 could’ve easily been 37 had Bryce Young and Co. pressed things in the second half of a blowout). Also, the Crimson Tide scored at least 31 points in every game this season but three: Cincinnati, LSU (20-14 win), and Auburn (24-22 three-overtime win).

So why should you even hesitate to play Alabama Over 24.5 points in the CFP national championship prop bets market? Well, maybe because Georgia’s stunning defensive collapse in the SEC title tilt was a one-game aberration. Maybe Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart has figured out how to fix what went wrong (namely, allowing Young to repeatedly play catch with wide-open receivers like it was a 7-on-7 drill).

Georgia’s defense definitely was back to its dominating ways in a 34-11 blowout of Michigan in its CFP semifinal. The Bulldogs yielded a single field goal until the Wolverines scored a meaningless touchdown and 2-point conversion with 4:25 remaining in the game. And Michigan had scored 59, 42, and 42 points in its previous three contests.

Take out the Alabama game, and Georgia didn’t allow more than 17 points all season, holding eight of 12 foes to a touchdown or less. Then again … you can’t really “take out” the Alabama game, can you? 

Georgia Total Points Scored

The prop: 27.5
The odds: Over -105/Under -115

When a team’s defense conjures up images of the ’85 Bears, it’s very easy for the offense’s contributions to get overlooked. Which in Georgia’s case is a shame, because the Dawgs’ offense has more than done its part this season.

Since a 10-3 snoozer of a victory over Clemson in the season opener, Georgia has averaged 41.2 points per game. Granted, a good chunk of those points were either directly generated by the defense (defensive scores) or set up by the defense (via turnovers). But they count, nonetheless.

The Bulldogs put up at least 30 points in 11 consecutive games from Sept. 11-Nov. 27. Of course, that streak ended against … Alabama. After tallying 10 points in the first 15:04 of the SEC title game, UGA managed just two TDs the rest of the way. 

However, the Bulldogs bounced back big time against Michigan, putting up 34 points and 521 yards against a defense that entered the game allowing just 14.6 points and 299.2 total yards per contest. Before running up against Georgia, the Wolverines had limited nine of 12 foes to 18 points or fewer.

Then again, it must be noted that Alabama’s defense has been as overlooked as Georgia’s offense. The Crimson Tide have allowed more than 24 points just three times in 13 games. And it’s happened only once in eight contests since the team’s 41-38 loss at Texas A&M on Oct. 9 (Arkansas put up 35 on Nov. 20).

First Quarter Total Points Scored

The prop: 10.5
The odds: Over +105/Under -125

 These teams combined for a whopping 41 first-half points in the SEC Championship Game. However, 38 of those points were scored in the second quarter. The only points in the opening stanza came off the foot of Georgia kicker Jack Podlesny, who made a 38-yard field goal eight minutes into the contest.

While the Bulldogs did get out of the gate quickly against Michigan with 14 first-quarter points, they were a slow-starter for most of the season’s second half. Prior to the CFP semifinals, the Dawgs scored a total of 27 first-quarter points during a seven-game stretch against FBS competition. And only one of those seven contests featured more than 10 combined first-quarter points (Georgia had a 10-7 lead at Tennessee on Nov. 13).

Alabama held a 7-3 first-quarter lead against Cincinnati in its CFP semifinal. However, in their last four games versus SEC competition — Georgia, Auburn, Arkansas, and LSU — the Crimson Tide produced a grand total of … 10 first-quarter points. All four of those contests (as well as the Cincinnati game) stayed Under 10.5 first-quarter points.

Lastly, while Alabama is putting up 42.5 points per game, it has scored more than seven first-quarter points just five times this season. And three of the five opponents were cupcakes (New Mexico State, Southern Miss, and Mercer).

Bryce Young Total Passing Touchdowns

The prop: 2.5
The odds: Over +120/Under -160

This year’s runaway Heisman Trophy winner has been incredibly efficient throwing the football, completing 68 percent of his passes while posting a mind-boggling 43-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Young has tossed multiple touchdown passes in all 13 of Alabama’s games this season. What’s more, he’s notched at least three TDs in 10 of those outings, including four of the last five.

Yeah, but I bet that one recent exception was against Georgia, right? Wrong. Young shredded the Bulldogs’ tenacious D for 421 yards and three TDs in the SEC Championship Game. He tossed another three scores in the CFP semifinal against Cincinnati.

Here’s how impressive those six touchdown throws were: Georgia and Cincinnati were ranked second and third, respectively, against the pass in 2021-22. And prior to facing Young, those teams had yielded a total of 11 TD passes combined.

So why the heavy juice to the Under with this offering among CFP national championship prop bets? The answer likely lies in the very first prop listed above: Alabama is only projected to score 24.5 points. If the Crimson Tide hang around that number, that means Young’s arm would have to account for every TD to hit the Over on this prop.

Then again, that arm has been responsible for 67 percent of Alabama’s offensive touchdowns this season (43 of 64).

Zamir White Total Rushing Yards

The prop: 46.5
The odds: Over -115/Under -115

Two words best describe Georgia’s rushing attack: productive and balanced.

Five players rushed for at least 243 yards (including quarterback Stetson Bennett), and all five averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry. The best of the bunch is White, who leads the team in rushing attempts (135), rushing yards (718), and rushing touchdowns (10).

White led the Bulldogs’ ground attack against Michigan, gaining 54 yards on 12 carries (both team highs). That might not seem like a lot until you realize that prior to surrendering 190 rushing yards to Georgia, the Wolverines were yielding just 115.8 rushing yards per game. 

Probably makes you wonder why the Bulldogs’ lead back has such a low rushing prop tonight. Well, wonder no more: White gained just 27 yards on seven carries against Alabama in the SEC title game.

Obviously, White’s reduced workload in that contest was primarily the result of game script, as Bennett was forced to pass his team out of a big deficit. If Georgia’s defense fixes the problems it had against the Crimson Tide the first time around, the Bulldogs likely will lean heavily on their running game. 

Or at least that’s what Georgia would like to do. Might not be easy, though, as Alabama ranks fourth in the nation in rush defense (82.8 yards per game).

Finally, from the “for what it’s worth” department: White has eclipsed this prop number in just four of his last eight games after doing so in five of his first six.

The post CFP National Championship Prop Bets: Georgia Vs Alabama appeared first on Props.

With college football’s coaching carousel spinning at tornado-like speeds this week, you’ve probably asked yourself, “Geez — can’t anyone in this sport honor a commitment?”

The answer: Yes — we here at Props.com can. Unlike Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma and Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, we’re finishing the job we started back in early September, when we first unveiled our midweek College Football Betting Trends report.

Hot streaks, cold streaks, sides, totals — we’ve kept bettors updated on all the relevant college football betting trends involving FBS schools. Whether you’ve ridden moneymakers like Oklahoma State (9-1-1 ATS), Michigan (10-2 ATS), and Notre Dame (9-3 ATS) — or faded the likes of Indiana and New Mexico (both 1-10 ATS) — we hope you’ve been able to profit from this endeavor.

And we hope you will continue to profit, because we’ve got one more week of regular-season action before shifting gears to bowl season. This week, we’ll focus exclusively on the 10 conference championship games on the Week 13 college football betting board, providing trend details on each matchup.

As we’ve noted all season, the College Football Betting Trends report considers only FBS vs. FBS results.

All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.

The Big Boys Get Ready To Rumble 

Alabama vs. Georgia (SEC Championship): How dominant has top-ranked Georgia been this season? After an ugly season-opening 10-3 victory over Clemson, the Bulldogs won 11 consecutive games by at least 17 points. That includes eight wins by at least 27 points.

Since its “narrow” 30-13 victory over Kentucky in mid-October, Georgia beat its next four FBS opponents by a combined score of 163-30. And the Dawgs surrendered more than 13 points in a game just once all season (Tennessee put up 17).

Georgia has been just as impressive at the betting window, going 8-3 ATS, with the only non-covers coming as a favorite of 31.5, 22.5, and 40 points.

The Bulldogs head to Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite against Alabama, which is 11-1 SU but just 6-5 ATS in FBS vs. FBS matchups. The Crimson Tide have dropped three of their last four against the number.

Alabama is 8-4 to the Under, while Georgia has stayed low in six of its last seven games.

Iowa vs. Michigan (Big Ten Championship): Had Michigan held onto a 16-point second-half lead on Oct. 30 at Michigan State — a game the Wolverines lost 37-33 as a 4-point favorite — Jim Harbaugh’s squad would be on an 8-0 ATS tear. As it is, Michigan (10-2 ATS) is sitting side-by-side with Oklahoma State atop the point-spread mountain.

The Wolverines, who are 11-point favorites against Iowa, have won eight of 11 games by 15-plus points.

Iowa started the season 5-1 ATS but has cashed just twice in its last six games. The Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS as an underdog, and both of their losses were double-digit blowouts (24-7 vs. Purdue; 27-7 at Wisconsin).

Choose Your Moneymaker  

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Championship): This may or may not end up being the most compelling conference championship matchup on the field, but it’s certainly the most compelling from a betting perspective. That’s because Oklahoma State and Baylor are a combined 16-5-1 ATS in FBS-specific games.

The Cowboys’ nine-game spread-covering streak came to an end last week against Oklahoma — well, sort of: OSU won 37-33, pushing as a 4-point favorite. The Cowboys, who are a 5.5-point favorite for this neutral-site clash in Dallas, are still 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10, while Baylor (7-4 ATS overall) has cashed in six of its last eight.

Oklahoma State took down the Bears 24-14 as a 4-point home chalk on Oct. 2, with the game staying Under the 47.5-point total. The Cowboys have stayed low in all five of their games away from home, while the Under is 4-1 in the Bears’ last five overall.

Oregon vs. Utah (Pac-12 Championship): While these teams obviously won their respective divisions, they finished in the middle of the Pac-12 ATS standings. Oregon went 6-5 ATS in FBS action, while Utah was 5-6.

Both teams at least finished strong at the betting window. The Ducks cashed in four of their last five following a 1-4 ATS start, while the Utes failed to cover in their first three FBS contests but enter this meeting on a 5-3 ATS upswing. Two weeks ago, Utah bludgeoned Oregon 38-7 as a 3-point home favorite, with the game staying Under the total.

The Utes, who are a 2.5-point chalk for this rematch in Las Vegas, started the season 8-2 to the Over, but the Under has hit in their last two. The total has alternated in Oregon’s last five games, with last Saturday’s 38-29 win against Oregon State going Over.

Bearcats, Cougars Break Out The Claws 

Houston at Cincinnati (American Athletic Championship): Cincinnati joins Georgia as the nation’s only undefeated teams. However, the Bearcats rode a point-spread roller coaster along the way. Cincy started out 5-0 ATS in FBS action, failed to cash in its next four, then closed the regular season with consecutive spread covers.

The Bearcats, who are consensus 10.5-point home favorites against Houston, are 5-4 ATS as a double-digit chalk.

The Cougars are a middling 6-5 ATS in FBS-specific matchups, but have won 11 consecutive games since a season-opening 38-21 home loss to Texas Tech. Houston has been favored in every game but two: a 45-10 win as a 3.5-point underdog at Tulsa and a 44-37 victory over SMU in a pick ’em contest.

The Over is 7-3 in Houston’s last 10 (5-1 on the road), but the Under is 5-1 in the Bearcats’ last six.

Wake Forest vs. Pitt (ACC Championship): Pittsburgh is one of eight schools that is 8-3 ATS in FBS-specific contests, cashing in six of the last eight. The Panthers, who are laying 3 points in this neutral-site battle, also are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS away from home.

Wake Forest started the season 2-0-1 ATS but has split its last eight at the betting window. The Demon Deacons have alternated spread covers in their last five outings, most recently getting the cash in last week’s 41-10 rout of Boston College as a 6-point chalk.

Although Wake stayed Under the total against B.C., the Over is still 6-2 in its last eight games. The Over is also 7-4 in Pittsburgh’s games this season. In fact, the Deacons (42.9 points per game) and Panthers (42.8 ppg) rank third and fourth in the nation, respectively, in scoring offense.

Can Hilltoppers Do It Again?

Western Kentucky at Texas-San Antonio (Conference USA Championship): Like Pitt, Western Kentucky is 8-3 ATS and enters this one on a five-game spread-covering roll. The Hilltoppers were double-digit favorites in four of those games, while the other was last week’s 53-21 beatdown at Marshall in a pick ’em affair.

Conversely, Texas-San Antonio started the season 7-1 ATS but has since failed to cover in its last three (including last week’s 45-23 loss at North Texas as an 8.5-point chalk). The Roadrunners, who are a 3-point home underdog in this contest, are 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while Western Kentucky is 4-2 ATS on the road.

Then again, UTSA went to Western Kentucky on Oct. 9 and departed with a 52-46 victory as a three-point pup. That game sailed Over the total, and the Over is 7-4 in the Hilltoppers’ FBS contests this season and 6-2 in the Roadrunners’ last eight overall. However, the Under is 4-1 in UTSA’s five FBS home games.

Utah State at San Diego State (Mountain West): San Diego State suffered just one SU defeat in the regular season, but the Aztecs were dead-even against the oddsmakers in FBS play, going 5-5-1 ATS (including 3-3 ATS at home).

SDSU entered last week’s showdown against Boise State mired in a 1-4-1 ATS funk but rallied for a 27-16 upset as a 3-point home dog. The Aztecs, who are laying 5.5 points in the title game, are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four as a favorite.

Utah State (7-4 ATS overall) followed up a 2-3 ATS start with a 5-1 ATS finish. The Aggies are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS on the road, the only non-cover being a 28-24 win at UNLV as a 7-point chalk. They’re also 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog.

The Under is 6-3 in Utah State’s last nine (including 3-1 on the road), while the Aztecs have stayed low in six of their last eight (including three of four at home).

MAC-tion In The Motor City

Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (Mid-American Conference): Kent State enters this neutral-site game at Ford Field in Detroit on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll, including a wild 52-47 victory over Northern Illinois as a 3.5-point home favorite on Nov. 3.

The Golden Flashes, who are a consensus 3.5-point chalk in this rematch, are 5-2 ATS since failing to cover in their first four FBS games.

Northern Illinois went 6-4-1 ATS in FBS play, but the Huskies split their last six against the oddsmakers. Including the loss at Kent State, NIU went 4-2 ATS away from home. Conversely, the Flashes are 2-5 ATS on the highway.

The Huskies have hurdled the total in five of their last six, and Kent State has done the same in five of its last seven.

Appalachian State at Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt Conference): Appalachian State had its five-game ATS winning streak halted (barely) in last week’s 27-3 victory over Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point home favorite.

The Mountaineers still own a strong 8-4 ATS mark, cashing in four of their five road games. The lone exception: a 41-13 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4.5-point home chalk on Oct. 12. Despite that result, App State is a consensus 3-point road favorite this week.

The Ragin’ Cajuns opened the season with a 38-18 loss at Texas but have since ripped off 11 consecutive victories. However, they’re just 5-6 ATS in FBS contests (3-2 ATS at home). On the other hand, UL-Lafayette has pulled off outright upsets in its last two as an underdog, knocking off App State at home and Liberty on the road (42-14 as a 4.5-point pup).

The Under is 5-2 in the Mountaineers’ last seven and 8-3 for the Ragin’ Cajuns overall.

ATS Standings

Best:
Oklahoma State 9-1-1
Michigan 10-2
Notre Dame 9-3
UAB 8-3
Appalachian State 8-3
Michigan State 8-3
North Texas 8-3
Kentucky 8-3
Pittsburgh 8-3
Washington State 8-3
Western Kentucky 8-3

Worst:
Indiana 1-10
New Mexico 1-10
FIU 2-9
TCU 2-9
Temple 2-8
Stanford 3-9
(11 teams tied at 3-8)

Over/Under Standings

Over:
Louisiana Tech 8-3
Rice 8-3
Tennessee 8-3
Tulsa 8-3
Arkansas 7-4
FIU 7-4
Houston 7-4
Nevada 7-4
Pitt 7-4
Utah 7-4
Western Kentucky 7-4

Under:
Boise State 2-10
Penn State 2-9
Illinois 3-9
Ball State 3-8
FAU 3-8
UL Lafayette 3-8
Mississippi 3-8
New Mexico 3-8
Washington 3-8

The post College Football Betting Trends: Conference Championship Edition appeared first on Props.

The words have been ingrained in your brain from the moment you told your Uncle Vinny that you won your first bet: “Just remember, kid — there’s no such thing as a sure thing.”

Uncle Vinny’s advice has served you well over the years (and will continue to do so). Although with each passing week of the 2021 NFL season, heeding that advice has become exceedingly difficult. The reason: A bunch of NFL betting trends are slowly shifting from “strong tendencies” to “damn-near sure things.”

We explain more in the Week 13 edition of the NFL Betting Trends Report.

All statistics based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.

This Season Is For The Dogs

To be clear, we would never — not for a hot second — consider calling the 2021 NFL season “predictable” (last thing we’d ever do is intentionally enrage the gambling gods). That said, numbers don’t lie, and these numbers will open your eyes faster than a bucket of ice water to the face at 3 a.m.:

Even though the last two weeks have been a dead-even split (with favorites/underdogs going 15-15 ATS), ’dogs are still cashing at a healthy 56.4 percent clip for the season. In the last five weeks alone, underdogs are 44-28-1 ATS.

Putting that latter figure in real-money terms, if you wagered $110 on every underdog since Week 7, you’d be up $1,320.

Just how much of a grind has it been to bet the chalk this season? Favorites have outperformed underdogs just three times in 12 weeks: Week 5 (9-7 ATS), Week 6 (8-6 ATS), and Week 7 (7-6 ATS). That’s it.

What’s more, only three teams have produced substantial profits as a chalk: The Packers (6-2 ATS), Patriots (6-3 ATS, including 5-0 in their last five), and Cowboys (5-2 ATS). Remove that cumulative 17-7 ATS mark, and favorites are 61-94-1 ATS for the season. That’s a straight-to-the-poorhouse 39.4 percent success rate.

The Steelers (0-5 ATS), Raiders (0-3 ATS), Rams (3-7 ATS), Chiefs (4-7 ATS), Ravens (3-6 ATS), and Saints (1-4 ATS) have been particularly dreadful when laying points. Conversely, the “top dogs” this season have been the Cardinals (5-0 ATS), Packers (4-0 ATS), Titans (5-1 ATS), Vikings (5-1 ATS), and Lions (7-4 ATS).

Overhyped & Undervalued  

Just as underdog bettors have made a killing this season, so too have Under bettors. In fact, for the season, the Under is 100-78-2 — a record that virtually mirrors that of underdogs (101-78-1 ATS).

Without question, the top Under team has been the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s squad is 9-1-1 to the Under overall, including 8-0-1 in its last nine games. Combined point totals in the last five: 32, 36, 17, 38 and 23. Also, the Over has yet to cash in a Seahawks road game (5-0-1 Under) — worth nothing, since Seattle travels to San Francisco this week.

The Seahawks are hardly alone in the low-scoring department. The Jaguars have stayed low in nine of their last 10 games, including the last six in a row; the Broncos have stayed low in nine of 11 this season, including the last five in a row; and the Bears and Lions are 8-3 to the Under, with Detroit topping the total just once in its last nine contests.

Looking for a dominant Over team? There’s a grand total of one: The Indianapolis Colts have hurdled the total in eight of 12 games. Next in line are the Titans (7-5 to the Over) and Rams (6-4-1).

Ready For Prime Time

Two of the most bankable NFL betting trends this season have revolved around prime-time games. And, of course, the prime-time spotlight has shined brightly on … underdogs and Unders.

While favorites are 24-12 SU in marquee Thursday/Sunday/Monday night matchups, underdogs are 23-13 ATS. And since Week 4, pups have cashed in 18 of 27 prime-time contests (66.7%).

Also going back to Week 4, the Under is 18-8-1 in prime-time action — this after eight of the first nine prime-time games soared Over the total.

With the Bills and Saints falling way short of the total on Thanksgiving Night, the Under is now 9-1 on Thursday nights the past 10 weeks. And after the 17-15 Washington-Seattle barnburner in Week 12, the Under has hit in five of the last six Monday Night Football clashes.

This week’s prime-time schedule begins with Dallas at New Orleans in the Thursday nighter, followed by Denver-Kansas City on Sunday night and New England-Buffalo on Monday. Consensus totals in those three contests: 47.5, 47 and 44 (respectively).

One more Under trend that’s less explainable than the popularity of the Kardashian clan: The Under has cashed in 65.5 percent of AFC vs. NFC matchups (38-20-1). Although three of last week’s five interconference games went Over, the Under remains 18-8 (69.2%) in such clashes during the past five weeks.

This week’s AFC-NFC battles (and totals) include: Eagles at Jets (45.5), Giants at Dolphins (41.5/42), Washington at Raiders (49.5), and Jaguars at Rams (48).

Note that the Giants (5-0 last five), Dolphins (4-1 last five), and Washington (5-1 last five) enter Week 13 riding strong Under streaks.

Trending In Different Directions

Let’s close with some additional NFL betting trends that are relevant to this week’s slate of 15 games:

— Although they went 2-1 SU and ATS in Week 12, favorites of six points or more remain just 8-21-1 ATS over the past five weeks. This week, seven teams are laying big numbers, including five road favorites (odds via The SuperBook):

• Eagles (-6.5 at Jets)
• Vikings (-7 at Lions)
• Cardinals (-7.5 at Bears)
• Colts (-9 at Vikings)
• Chiefs (-10 vs. Broncos)
• Buccaneers (-11 at Falcons)
• Rams (-12.5 vs. Jaguars)

— Tampa Bay is a perfect 4-for-4 as a double-digit favorite (albeit all at home). The Bucs are facing a Falcons squad that is 0-4 ATS in true home games. Also, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in all 11 of Atlanta’s games this season.

— The Vikings are 4-1 ATS on the road (first non-cover was last week at San Francisco), while Detroit has brought home the money in three consecutive weeks.

— The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS overall, including 6-0 ATS on the road; the Bears are 4-7 ATS overall and 2-6 ATS as an underdog.

— Not only has Denver stayed low in five straight games, but Kansas City has done so in five of its last six (including three straight at home).

— The Jaguars and Rams are both 4-7 ATS, although L.A. has failed to cash in five consecutive games.

— Finally, Green Bay (which is on bye this week) remains atop the spread-covering mountain at 10-2 ATS (including 10-1 ATS since a Week 1 loss to New Orleans). However, the hottest point-spread team remains New England. The Patriots have covered (and won) six games in a row. They’ll try to make it 7-for-7 when they close out Week 13 as a 2.5-point underdog at Buffalo on Monday night.

ATS Standings

Best:
Packers 10-2
Cowboys 8-3
Cardinals 8-3
Patriots 8-4
Lions 7-4

Worst:
Jets 3-8
Bears 4-7
Chiefs 4-7
Jaguars 4-7
Rams 4-7
Steelers 4-7
Washington 4-7

Over/Under Standings

Over:
Colts 8-4
Titans 7-5
Rams 6-4-1
(7 teams tied at 6-5)

Under:
Seahawks 1-9-1
Jaguars 2-9
Broncos 2-9
Bears 3-8
Lions 3-8
Giants 3-7-1

The post NFL Betting Trends: Underdogs, Unders Continue To Pay Off appeared first on Props.

Remember when you were a kid and your mom told you roughly 27 times a week, “Don’t take candy from strangers!”? (Unless it’s Halloween, then take as much candy from strangers as you can get your grubby hands on.)

Well, right now, NFL favorites are the creepy guy circling the neighborhood in a windowless van — and they’ve got more candy than Willy Wonka. And so we kick off Week 11’s NFL Betting Trends Report by turning into your mom: Don’t take candy from NFL favorites!

No, seriously. Unless it’s the Green Bay Packers or Dallas Cowboys laying points, stay the hell away from NFL favorites. Because the only people profiting from them right now are bankruptcy attorneys.

All statistics are based on closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.

A Doggone Good Run

We know there’s a good chance you’re thinking, “They must be exaggerating; underdogs can’t be that strong of an NFL betting trend!” We know this because we can be prone to hyperbole at times. Let us review the bookends to Week 10 to assure you this is not one of those times:

Last week began with an underdog mired in a 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS slump catching 8.5 points at home. It ended with an underdog that was 0-4 SU and ATS at home catching 3.5 points. Those two teams — the Dolphins on Thursday and 49ers on Monday — won outright … by a combined score of 53-20.

In between, four more underdogs pulled off upsets (Washington, Vikings, Panthers, and Eagles); one covered the spread in a game that ended in a tie (Lions); and two cashed in losses (Saints and Jaguars).

We are in a golden age of hilariously ignorning conventional "take the points on the road" wisdom.

— Props.com (@PropsUS) November 16, 2021

In all, underdogs went 9-5 ATS in Week 10. Throw in a 10-4-1 ATS effort in Week 8 and a 10-4 ATS mark in Week 9, and NFL underdogs are 29-13-1 ATS since Halloween weekend.

And it’s not like these ’dogs are only barking at the betting window. Over the past three weeks, favorites and underdogs are dead even on the scoreboard at 21-21-1. This includes nine outright upsets by teams that took the field as an underdog of 6.5 points or more.

Which leads us to another ongoing NFL betting trend: Since Week 8, favorites of 6 points or more are only 10-9-1 SU and 3-16-1 ATS.

So of course Week 11 begins with a 7-point road favorite (Patriots at Falcons on Thursday) … and ends with an 11-point home chalk (Bucs vs. Giants on Monday) … with five more favorites laying at least 6 points on Sunday.

Numbers ‘Favor’ Green Bay, Dallas

Just how much of a grind has it been for favorites in 2021? They’ve “won” the week just three times. And those were modest wins in Weeks 5-7, when chalk went 9-7 ATS, 8-6 ATS, and 7-6 ATS. (Week 4 was a push at 8-8).

As noted in the chart above, underdogs are now 86-63-1 ATS for the season, good for a 57.3 percent success rate. And that includes the Packers (6-1 ATS as a favorite) and Cowboys (5-1 ATS) — the only NFL teams having success as a chalk. Remove Green Bay and Dallas from the equation, and underdogs are cashing at a 61.3 percent clip (84-52-1 ATS).

The Packers (9-1 ATS, including nine consecutive spread covers) and Cowboys (8-1 ATS) each covered as favorites in Week 10 and continue to sit 1-2 in the point-spread rankings. Both squads also have been nearly perfect on the road, with Dallas going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS as a visitor, and Green Bay registering a dominant 5-0 SU and ATS record since its Week 1 loss to the Saints in Jacksonville.

Could a regression be coming? Oddsmakers seem to be hinting at such. The Packers are just a 2.5-point favorite this week at Minnesota, which is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 2.5-point underdogs at Kansas City — even though the Chiefs have gotten the money just once in their last 12 regular-season and playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 0-5 ATS this season.

Follow The Money

At home, on the road, as a favorite, as an underdog — no doubt, Green Bay and Dallas have gotten it done for bettors all season. But they’re not the only teams delivering the goods. Despite coming up short against the number last week, the Titans and Cardinals are still 7-3 ATS overall, with Tennessee cashing in six of its last seven.

Arizona is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS as a visitor, and this week the Cardinals — who hope to get QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back after both missed the past two games with injuries — are a slim 2.5-point favorite at Seattle.

Other noteworthy NFL betting trends this week:

— Given how much favorites have struggled of late, Tampa Bay laying 11 points against the Giants on Monday seems a bit much. However, the Bucs are 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year (as opposed to 0-5 ATS as a single-digit chalk; their loss to the Rams was a pick ’em).

— The Colts (+7 at Buffalo) are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, including three straight covers on the road.

— The Saints (+1.5 at Philadelphia) barely got inside the number at Tennessee in Week 10 to move to 4-0 ATS as an underdog (compared with 1-4 ATS as a chalk). However, New Orleans has alternated spread covers in all nine games so far.

— While the Vikings (+2.5 vs. Green Bay) have struggled to cash tickets at home, they improved to 4-0 ATS as a ’dog with last week’s victory at the Chargers.

Meanwhile, two negative point-spread trends will butt heads in Chicago, where the Ravens (-6.5) put their 1-6 ATS record as a favorite up against the Bears’ 2-5 ATS mark as an underdog.

Let’s Have A Conference

Baltimore at Chicago is one of five cross-conference matchups in Week 11. That’s notable because of two ongoing AFC vs. NFC betting trends: The NFC is 30-19 ATS (61.2%) against the AFC this season, and the Under is 31-17-1 (63.3%) in those 49 contests.

In addition to Ravens-Bears, which has a consensus total of 45.5, this week’s AFC-NFC battles are:

• Patriots (-7, 47.5) at Falcons
• Browns (-9.5, 44.5) vs. Lions
• 49ers (-6.5, 46) at Jaguars
• Chiefs (-2.5, 55.5) vs. Cowboys

Of that quartet of contests, Detroit at Cleveland stands out for one reason: The Lions, who cashed in their 16-16 tie at Pittsburgh last week, have (like New Orleans) alternated ATS wins and losses in every game. The Browns, who got hammered 45-7 at New England in Week 10, have alternated spread-covers in their last five.

Over Here, Under There

Thanks to the low-scoring upset victories by the Dolphins and 49ers last week, two prime-time NFL betting trends continue to pay dividends.

First, underdogs are now 21-9 ATS (but only 11-19 SU) in Thursday/Sunday/Monday night games. Also, in the past seven weeks, the Under is 14-7 in prime-time contests, with seven of the past eight Thursday night affairs staying low.

Accordingly, backing the Falcons +7 against the Patriots and rolling with Under 47.5 on Thursday seems like a layup. Except New England has covered in four consecutive games and gone Over the total in five of its last six. (Combined totals in those five Overs: 47, 64, 67, 51, 52.)

Despite those recent Patriots shootouts, the Under is connecting at 54.7 percent for the season (82-66-2). Teams in the midst of lengthy Under trends include the Packers (7-0 last seven, including 4-0 on the road); Lions (6-1 last seven and 4-0 this season on the road); Washington (4-0 last four); Chiefs (4-1 last five); and Vikings (4-0 this season at home).

Those squads riding Over trends with the Patriots include the Saints (5-1 overall), Bucs (3-1 at home this season), and Giants (3-1 this season on the road).

ATS Standings

Best:
Packers 9-1
Cowboys 8-1
Cardinals 7-3
Titans 7-3
Colts 6-4
Patriots 6-4

Worst:
Washington 2-7
Jets 2-7
Chiefs 3-7
Buccaneers 3-6
49ers 3-6
Ravens 3-6
Steelers 3-6

Over/Under Standings:

Over:
Jets 6-3
Browns 6-4
Colts 6-4
Titans 6-4

Under:
Seahawks 1-7-1
Broncos 2-8
Packers 2-8
Jaguars 2-7
Steelers 2-6-1
Panthers 3-7

The post NFL Betting Trends Report: ’Dogs Remain Bettor’s Best Friend appeared first on Props.

Are the 49ers and Bears headed for a three-hour snoozefest in Chicago? Will the Cowboys run their winning streak to six in a row (even if they don’t have hobbled starting quarterback Dak Prescott)? Will Tom Brady continue to do Tom Brady things? Can the Lions finally get off the schneid?

We tackle all those questions and more in this week’s First and 10, a breakdown of our 10 favorite Week 8 NFL prop bets.

Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET Oct. 29.

Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under 235.5 passing yards (at Buffalo)

The Odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, The SuperBook, and PointsBet USA)

The case for the Over: Sure, Dolphins general manager Chris Grier wants to punch himself in the face daily for passing up Justin Herbert in favor of Tagovailoa in the 2019 draft. But Miami’s last two losses can’t be pinned entirely on their second-year QB, as he lit up the Jaguars and Falcons for 329 and 291 yards, respectively, and six total TDs. And last year at Buffalo, Tua threw for 361 yards.

The case for the Under: Not only do the Bills lead the NFL in pass defense, surrendering just 180.5 yards per game, but the next best team (Carolina) is nearly 17 yards away. To put that into perspective: The gap between Buffalo and Carolina is greater than the gap between Carolina and the 10^th best pass defense (Denver). On top of that, there could be weather issues in upstate New York on Sunday that could put Tua (who doesn’t have the biggest arm in the world) at a disadvantage.

Detroit Lions -1.5 (alternate spread) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (at Detroit)

The odds: +170 (at DraftKings)

The case for the Lions: Well, we already saw the last undefeated team go down this week, with Arizona blowing a chance to get to 8-0 by botching a late-game goal-line situation against the Packers on Thursday. So it would be perfect symmetry for this to be the week the last winless team finally tastes victory. As it is, Detroit has come excruciatingly close to winning twice (losing two 19-17 games to the Ravens and Vikings on insanely long, last-second field goals). The Lions also held a second-half lead against the Rams on the road a week ago. Plus, the Eagles (1-5 last six) stink. But Detroit being Detroit, watch them win by 1. So maybe consider just the standard moneyline bet.

The case against the Lions: Um, they’re the Lions. Need we say more? Actually, we already did.

Derrick Henry longest rush Over/Under 17.5 yards (at Indianapolis)

The odds: Over -120/Under -110 (at DraftKings)

The case for the Over: If you’re asking yourself, “Do these guys include a Henry prop every week?” the answer is, “Sure do!” Can’t help ourselves because the Titans’ throwback tailback is a joy to watch (and bet on). As far as this week’s prop, Henry has cleared this number in five of seven games this season (19, 60, 19, 22, 76).

The case for the Under: The Colts have had Henry’s number over the years, holding him to “just” 88.8 yards per game in 11 meetings. Alas, in his last five games against Indy, Henry still had long rushes of 33, 20, 31, 18, and 34 yards. (This one smells like a gimme Over.) 

Ja’Marr Chase Over/Under 5.5 receptions (at N.Y. Jets)

The odds: Over +100/Under -130 (at BetMGM)

The case for the Over: It looks like the Bengals’ rookie wideout has gotten used to the rock-hard NFL footballs he had trouble catching in the preseason. Last week, Chase torched a Ravens defense that held the Chargers to just 3 points in Week 6, going for career-bests of eight receptions and 201 yards. He’s now hauled in at least six passes in three of the last four weeks (and QB Joe Burrow has targeted him 35 times in that span).

The case for the Under: We’ve run out of ways to mock the Jets, who continue to do the Jetsiest Jets things every week. They haven’t been this big of an underdog (10.5 points) all season, and yet they’re at home … and facing the Bengals! So if oddsmakers are right and we’re looking at New York being on the receiving end of yet another blowout, Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor would be a fool (not to mention negligent) to let Burrow drop back more than 20 times, which obviously would limit Chase’s opportunities.

Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under 38.5 pass attempts (vs. Browns)

The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at PointsBet USA)

The case for the Over: The Steelers’ 2021 MVP is clearly the team’s ice supplier. Because Pittsburgh’s graybeard QB is averaging as many pass attempts per game (39) as his age, and yet somehow his right arm hasn’t fallen off Monty Python-style. In four of his last five games, Roethlisberger has slung it 40, 58, 40, and 40 times.

The case for the Under: Like in Buffalo, the weather could be nasty in Cleveland on Sunday (hence the low game total of 43). More importantly, the Browns are tied for second in the NFL with 20 sacks (one behind co-leaders Chicago and Minnesota). So the only way Roethlisberger chucks the ball 39-plus times again this week is if Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is listed as Big Ben’s primary life insurance beneficiary. (For the record: Roethlisberger has attempted 36 or fewer passes in six of his last seven games against the Browns).

49ers-Bears Over/Under 35.5 total points (at Chicago)

The odds: Over -165/Under +140 (at BetMGM)

The case for the Over: This alternate total is four points lower than the actual total, meaning the 49ers and Bears need to combine for just five touchdowns, five PATs, and a rouge to hit the Over on this prop. Four of San Francisco’s six games have featured 48 or more combined points, while five of Chicago’s seven have gone over 36.

The case for the Under: Given that Chicago has been a quarterback wasteland since, well, forever, and given that Ohio State hasn’t produced a decent NFL quarterback since, well, forever, we had a pretty good feeling this Justin Fields/Bears thing wouldn’t work. But, jeez, 17 points total the last two weeks? An average of 10.8 points in four games against opponents not named the Lions? Also, San Francisco has averaged just 19.3 points during its four-game losing skid, and its last two road games ended 17-11 and 17-10. 

Mike Williams Over/Under 72.5 receiving yards (vs. New England)

The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, The SuperBook, and PointsBet USA)

The case for the Over: The Chargers’ former first-round draft pick has put up just two duds this season, against the Raiders (1 catch, 11 yards) and Ravens (2 catches, 27 yards). Otherwise, Williams has gone for 82, 91, 122, and 165 yards. Now he faces a mediocre-at-best Patriots secondary that has allowed at least one opposing receiver to go for 73-plus yards in five of seven games.

The case for the Under: While not a huge sample size, it’s worth noting that in three career games against New England (including one in the playoffs), Williams has put up receiving yardage totals of 7, 43, and 68 yards. And the 43-yarder came in the Chargers’ 45-0 home loss just last season.

Tom Brady Over/Under 2.5 passing TDs (at New Orleans)

The odds: Over +100/Under -130 (at BetMGM)

The case for the Over: The Buccaneers QB — and the only human on the planet who’s defeated Father Time and done it completely naturally (insert eye roll) — lit up the Bears for four TD passes last week. This means Brady now has thrown for four or more scores in four of his team’s seven games.

The case for the Under: Those four games we just referenced? They were all at home. Brady has been a mere mortal in three road contests (Rams, Patriots, Eagles), tossing a combined three TDs. Also, in two regular season and one playoff game against the Saints last season, Brady passed for 2, 0, and 2 TDs. 

Cowboys -2.5 (alternate spread) vs Vikings (at Minnesota)

The odds: Cowboys +155/Vikings -190 (at BetMGM)

The case for the Cowboys: Since coming up short in the season opener at Tampa Bay, the Cowboys have won five straight games by margins of 3, 20, 8, 24, and 6 points. And Mike McCarthy’s team (somehow!) is the only one that has covered the spread in every contest. Yet Dallas is an underdog in this one (consensus line is now out to Vikings -3). So why not take some nice plus-money with a team riding a five-game winning streak to defeat an opponent that needed a bomb field goal at the gun to beat the Lions in their last home game?

The case for the Vikings: Answer to that last question: Because Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is dealing with a calf injury he suffered two weeks ago, and he’s still hobbled despite his team having a bye last week. If Dak can’t go or make it to the finish line, say hello to … Cooper Rush. No, that’s not the name of a boy band. That’s the name of Prescott’s backup. Yikes!

Travis Kelce longest reception Over/Under 22.5 yards (vs. New York Giants)

The odds: Over -120/Under -110 (at BetMGM, at DraftKings, and at The SuperBook)

The case for the Over: Can’t believe it took us so long to include an NFL betting prop on the best tight end in football (and one of the best ever). Also can’t believe it took us so long to find a solid argument for taking the Over on this prop. Here’s what we came up with: Kelce has beaten this total three times in his last six games (24, 28, 46), and New York has allowed four tight ends to top this number.

The case for the Under: You mean you can’t make an argument for the Giants’ crappy pass defense? Not really, because it actually hasn’t been awful. New York ranks in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed, and while they’ve allowed 11 opponents to catch a pass of 23 yards or more, only four were tight ends. Then again, none of the four were named Travis Kelce.

WEEK 7 RESULTS:

— Joe Burrow Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (OVER – 1 INT)
— Davante Adams longest reception Over/Under 26.5 yards (UNDER – 26 yards)
— Derrick Henry Over/Under 25.5 rushing attempts (OVER – 29 yards)
— New England Patriots -10.5 vs. New York Jets (YES – Patriots win by 41)
— Jared Goff Over/Under 267.5 passing yards (OVER – 268 yards)
— Devonta Smith Over/Under 58.5 receiving yards (OVER – 61 yards)
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5, first half (YES – Bucs led by 32 at half)
— Arizona Cardinals Over/Under 32.5 total points (UNDER – 31 points)
— Carson Wentz Over/Under 212.5 passing yards (UNDER – 150 yards)
— Alvin Kamara Over/Under 90.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 51 yards)

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