Spencer Limbach, Author at Props

4 NFL Preseason Week 2 Picks: Best NFL Bets This Week (2023)

Spencer Limbach — Sun, 20 Aug 2023 09:55:59 +0000

Here we go with the second FULL week of these exhibition games, and you better believe we are coming through with our top four NFL Preseason Week 2 picks for this slate.

The week kicks off on Thursday, and you can read our Eagles vs. Browns predictions for that matchup on NFL Network.

Otherwise, our four NFL preseason picks for Week 2 take place mostly on Saturday, Aug. 19 with one game on Monday.

NFL Preseason Week 2 Picks

For these NFL Preseason Predictions, we are looking at the lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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New York Jets (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date: Saturday, Aug. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Local, NFL+

Last week, we backed the Jets as underdogs, and what did they do? They soared high and shut out the Carolina Panthers 27-0 on the road.

Rookie QB Zach Wilson strutted his stuff with 123 yards and a touchdown pass while third-string QB Tim Boyle came off the bench and slung a pair of touchdowns as well.

Looking at our handy-dandy NFL Preseason Trends article, we discover that Jets’ head coach Robert Saleh is cooking with gas in the preseason, sporting a sizzling 5-1 record.

On the flip side, the Buccaneers have been about as successful as a pirate with a rubber sword, holding an 0-4 record in the preseason under head coach Todd Bowles.

Go ahead and take the Jets at home here.

Looking For NFL Props This Week?

We found some NFL Preseason Props for Week 2, including an unbelievable deal on Colts QB Anthony Richardson!

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Date: Saturday, Aug. 19
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: Local, NFL+

Two of our NFL Preseason Week 2 picks are sailing under the same flag: Give Sean McVay and his coaching tree the cold shoulder.

This sprawling family tree includes Brandon Staley of the Chargers, Zac Taylor of the Bengals, Matt LaFleur of the Packers, and Kevin O’Connell of the Vikings.

Their preseason slip-ups aren’t the result of cursed locker room mirrors, but rather a philosophical choice. This group plays it safe during the preseason while hardly batting an eye at the scoreboard.

Now, let’s zoom in on O’Connell, the Vikings’ head coach. His preseason record is as spotless as a freshly cleaned window, but in the wrong direction – a perfect 0-4.

On the other side of the field, the Titans are rolling out a pair of young dual-threat quarterbacks: Malik Willis and Will Levis.

Both of these guys are eager to prove that they are the future of the franchise, so they’ll likely be playing with more urgency than O’Connell’s squad.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Date: Saturday, Aug. 19
Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV: Local, NFL+

As the previous write-up mentioned, we are betting against McVay (and his coaching tree) in the preseason.

Dusting off our trusty NFL Preseason Betting Trends article, we find that the Rams have been stumbling through the preseason like a toddler in oversized shoes, with a record of 1-6 since 2021.

Now, let’s sail over to the Raiders’ camp. They’re the “defending preseason co-champions,” after a 3-0 record last year…if there was such a title.

They kicked off this preseason with a win, making them undefeated 4-0 under the watch of Josh McDaniels. Someone get this man a contract extension now!

Anyway, we’ll take the Raiders to win and cover the 3.5 point spread against a Rams team that isn’t too concerned about the score.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Washington Commanders

Date: Saturday, Aug. 19
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

If we’re mushing the Ravens’ streak with this write-up, we’ll eat our hats – and we’ve got quite the hat collection.

For those who have been living under a rock, the Ravens have swooped to victory in 24 straight preseason games.

Head coach Jon Harbaugh is no stranger to preseason success with a 44-12 record (79% win rate) in these exhibition games. If there were a Preseason Hall of Fame, Harbaugh’s bust would be front and center for sure.

The Ravens also have a worthy QB trio – Josh Johnson, Tyler Huntley, and Anthony Brown – that is better than what almost every other team rolls out in the preseason.

All of these guys have experience playing in the Baltimore system, and they fit the style extremely well.

So, while we aren’t trying to jinx this streak, we believe that the Ravens make for a comfortable bet to secure their 25th straight preseason victory on Monday Night Football.

The post 4 NFL Preseason Week 2 Picks: Best NFL Bets This Week (2023) appeared first on Props.

NFL Preseason Betting Trends & Streaks For 2023 (Updated)

Spencer Limbach — Sat, 19 Aug 2023 07:40:21 +0000

While the Baltimore Ravens’ preseason prowess is a well-publicized tale, regularly showcased on SportsCenter and Twitter, savvy NFL fans know there’s much more to explore beyond this headline. The following NFL preseason betting trends and streaks aim to uncover golden nuggets.

Take, for instance, the Sean McVay coaching tree. Coaches emerging from this lineage have generally underperformed in the preseason — including McVay himself. This isn’t due to a lack of skill, but rather a strategy: preserving key players by resting starters is a common stance.

Contrast this with the approach of Mike Tomlin, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ head coach, who tends to play his starters more liberally in the preseason. This has been a formula for success, with Tomlin consistently recording strong preseason results.

NFL Betting Trends: 2023 Preseason

In this guide, we will provide a comprehensive analysis of the top NFL preseason betting trends and records updated before each week of games in the 2023 preseason. We’ll explore enduring trends, recent developments, and, with NFL Preseason Week 3 on the horizon, we’ll offer insights specific to this critical juncture.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a curious fan, this article is crafted to arm you with the insights needed to navigate the unpredictable, yet rewarding, landscape of NFL preseason betting.

First off, some ground rules to keep in mind:

All trends are updated prior to the third week of the NFL Preseason in 2023.
We will update this article ahead of the fourth week of the NFL preseason too, so check back next week.
Keep in mind that all records are straight-up wins and losses, not against the spread.

Got it? Good! Let’s dive in!

NFL Preseason Trends: Week 3 Analysis

Based on these trends, here are some matchups that stand out:

Ravens at Buccaneers

The Ravens are 24-1 in their last 25 preseason games. Ravens are favored by 1.5

Cardinals at Vikings

Will the Vikings get their first win under Kevin O’Connell (0-5)? Cardinals are favored by 1.5

Rams at Broncos

The Los Angeles Rams are 1-7 in the preseason since 2021. Sean Payton has a 0-2 record with Denver. Broncos are favored by 6.5

Raiders at Cowboys

Las Vegas Raiders are 6-0 in the preseason under Josh McDaniels. The Dallas Cowboys are 2-7 in the preseason since 2021. Raiders are favored by 6

Jets at Giants

Since Robert Saleh took over for the New York Jets in 2021, they are 6-2 in the preseason. Jets are favored by 4.5

The Best NFL Preseason Trends Overall

BAL: As a head coach, Jon Harbaugh is 44-13 in the preseason, a 79% win rate.
BAL: The Ravens are 24-1 in their last 25 preseason games.
PIT: Since 2017, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 17-4 in the preseason.
PIT: Mike Tomlin is 39-24 in the preseason as a head coach, a 61% win rate.
NE: Bill Belichick is 51-39 in the preseason as head coach, a 56% win rate.

The Worst NFL Preseason Trends Overall

CIN: Zac Taylor is 3-8-1 in the preseason since taking over for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2019.
TB: Todd Bowles is 8-13 in the preseason as a head coach. That includes a 1-4 record with Tampa Bay.
DEN: Sean Payton is 8-16 in the preseason since 2015, which includes a 0-2 record with Denver.

The Best In Recent Years

LV: Las Vegas Raiders are 6-0 in the preseason since Josh McDaniels took over in 2022.
BUF: The Bills are 10-2 straight up in the preseason since 2019.
NYJ: Since Robert Saleh took over for the New York Jets in 2021, they are 6-2 in the preseason.
CHI: The Chicago Bears are 4-1 in the preseason since Matt Eberflus took over as head coach in 2022.

The Worst In Recent Years

DAL: The Dallas Cowboys are 2-7 in the preseason since 2021.
LAR: The Los Angeles Rams are 1-7 in the preseason since 2021.
MIN: Kevin O’Connell is 0-5 in the preseason since taking over as Minnesota Vikings head coach.
PHI: The Philadelphia Eagles are 1-5-1 in the preseason since 2021.

NFL Preseason Trends: Week 3

LAC: Under Brandon Staley, the Chargers have not won a preseason game (0-5) after Week 1.
SEA: Pete Carroll is 5-8 in Week 2 of the preseason as a coach. He has a winning record every other preseason week.

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4 College Football Props & Futures Bets For 2023 Season

Spencer Limbach — Sat, 19 Aug 2023 07:39:49 +0000

The 2023 season is just around the corner, and we’ve placed a quartet of College Football Props and Futures heading into this campaign.

With team dynamics changing and new talent emerging, there are opportunities to place wagers to return significant results. At least, that’s the goal with the following four bets.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just curious when it comes to our predictions, this guide will offer some intriguing insights.

4 College Football Props & Future Bets Before 2023 Season

DraftKings Sportsbook stands out as a top destination for college football props and futures, both before and during the season. It’s our preferred choice for in-season bets due to its diverse range of stats, player options, and weekly specials.

Below, you’ll discover some unique NCAAF futures bets offered by DraftKings. We pounced on one of these unique bets pretty hard (see No. 2 on the list).

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Clemson To Win ACC Championship (+145)

Click on any college football website, flip through any preseason magazine, or even consult the odds board. They will all tell you the same thing: the ACC is a two-team race between Clemson and Florida State.

Sure, you might see a sleeper article or two covering North Carolina or Pitt, but this conference will come down to the Tigers and Seminoles until we see evidence to the contrary.

That’s especially true when considering that the ACC has eliminated divisions. The top two squads in terms of winning percentage in conference play will face each other for the ACC Championship.

Remember, the Tigers did not lose in conference play last season, and they ousted North Carolina 39-10 for the ACC Championship.

Cade Klubnik with the far hash 45+ yard pic.twitter.com/MW5MrPAEC7

— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) August 6, 2023

Clemson has 15 returning starters, and sophomore QB Cade Klubnik has plenty of wind in his sails. The offense is back, and the defense has fully reloaded.

The Tigers get Florida State at home on Sept. 23. Then we could see a rematch on the first Saturday of December. That would offer us a decent hedging opportunity with this future, but I don’t think we are going to need it.

Where to bet: Clemson to win ACC Championship | +145 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Iowa More Regular Season Wins Than Louisville (-110)

Let’s take a glance at both of these teams’ win totals at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Iowa over 8 wins (-145)
Louisville over 8 wins (-110)

Okay, so DraftKings is giving us the answer key to this one. Jokes aside, Iowa has more upside and an easier schedule to boot.

In this “win total matchup”, if both teams have the same wins, you get your wager returned.

Louisville is in a state of transition with Jeff Brohm taking over as head coach and superstar QB Malik Cunningham off to the NFL.

Iowa…is Iowa. Aren’t they pretty much the same team every year, for better or worse?

Somewhere head coach Kirk Ferentz is muttering this mantra under his breath: “8 and 5 keeps my job alive. But 9 and 4 gets me paid even more.”

Phil Steele ranks Louisville at No. 54 in strength of schedule and Iowa at No. 69. The Hawkeyes avoid playing Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten, and they could be short underdogs in only two games this year (at Penn State, at Wisconsin).

Getting Cade McNamara at quarterback can only help, and this could be a sneaky-good squad that contends for nine or ten wins.

Where to bet: Iowa more regular season wins than Louisville | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Wisconsin RB Braelon Allen Over 1075.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Allen was a mainstay in our weekly College Football Player Props article, and that will probably be the case again in 2023.

However, we are bullish on the junior running back to outperform his rushing total on the season. Of course, any time you take the “over”, you are betting on a player to stay healthy enough to get there.

Allen is a 6’2″ 240-pound bulldozer who has shown nothing but durability in his first two years of college.

Who’s ready to watch this Wisconsin native get to work this season? Last year @BraelonAllen earned the Guaranteed Rate Bowl offensive MVP and All-Big Ten second team. #beyondthebig10 #badgerfootball pic.twitter.com/tlHoCtgFYJ

— Beyond the Big 10 (@BeyondtheBig10) August 4, 2023

He went for 1,126 rushing yards in the 2022 regular season and amassed 1,060 rush yards in just eight games as a freshman.

As a full-time starter, Allen is averaging more than 117 rushing yards per game. If he stays healthy, he will go over this with ease.

Where to bet: Braelon Allen over 1075.5 rush yards | -115at DraftKings Sportsbook

South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler Over 2500.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Rattler piled up 2,780 passing yards in the regular season for South Carolina before adding another 246 against Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl.

It’s important to remember that these season-long college football props only take into account the regular season. Conference championships and bowl games won’t count toward the total.

Most people remember Rattler’s heroics against Tennessee (438 yards) and Clemson (360 yards) down the stretch, but he had some pretty rough games (118 yards vs. UGA, 177 at UK, 145 at UF) along the way. He was inconsistent with a ton of mistakes and one of the lowest quarterback rankings in the SEC prior to his last two games.

Spencer Rattler is the only player in @GamecockFB history to throw 6 TD passes in a game pic.twitter.com/OCdzDMOxtU

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 20, 2022

However, the senior is brimming with confidence following a sensational finish to the 2022 season. He’s realizing his potential, and the coaches will let him play more aggressively like they did at the end of last year.

If he’s 75% of the quarterback that we saw against Tennessee, Clemson, and Notre Dame — he’ll go over 2500 passing yards with a few games to spare.

Where to bet: Spencer Rattler over 2500.5 pass yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The post 4 College Football Props & Futures Bets For 2023 Season appeared first on Props.

Best College Basketball Bets Today – Top NCAAB Picks & Odds (Updated Daily)

Spencer Limbach — Sat, 01 Apr 2023 07:05:02 +0000

Looking for the best college basketball bets today? You came to the right place! In this article, the Props crew will outline their top NCAAB picks for every day of the season. We mean it! Conference tournament morning games? Yep. March Madness? Of course! A random Friday slate with only Ivy League games? Let’s do it!

Below are our best college basketball bets today. These top NCAAB picks usually come in the form of a spread, total, or even a short moneyline pick. Be sure to check our college basketball betting page for more top selections and individual game write-ups.

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Best College Basketball Bets Today: Saturday, April 1

San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic Under 131.5

This is a matchup between two “under teams”. San Diego State has gone under the total in every NCAA Tournament game so far. The Aztecs are a tough defensive team that ranks top five in defensive efficiency. Florida Atlantic is strong without the ball too, ranking 15th in opponent effective field goal rate. The Owls are also 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

We can’t overlook the fact that this is the big stage and will be played in a football stadium. That can sometimes throw off shooters in their first game with that environment.

Add it all up, and the under looks like a strong bet for this Final Four game.

The Pick: Under 131.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous Results

Overall: 17-20 | -4.58 units

[accordion title=”Best NCAAB Bet History”]

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Best College Basketball Bets Today: Sunday, March 26

Texas -4 (vs. Miami FL)

You could argue that Texas has been the most dominant team in college basketball over the last three weeks. The Longhorns beat Kansas by 16 in the regular season finale. Then they march through the Big 12 Tournament, beating Kansas by 20 in the final. Texas then had relatively comfortable wins over Colgate, Penn State, and Xavier in the NCAA Tournament.

This isn’t a matchup where Texas will take its foot off the gas pedal.

The Longhorns are one of the most balanced teams in the nation. Both Texas and Miami rank in the top 15 for offensive efficiency, but the Longhorns are head and shoulders above the Hurricanes in the defensive rankings: No. 10 vs. 104.

Give credit to Miami for reaching the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons, but I believe the Hurricanes will come up short once again. Texas is one of the best teams in the nation, and they don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Let’s take the Longhorns to cover the four-point spread.

The Pick: Texas -4 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Saturday, March 25

Kansas Sate -2 (vs. Florida Atlantic)

We reference KenPom.com plenty in this article series. It’s a great reference tool for college hoops. If you go to the matchup page for this game, it suggests FAU has the upper hand, ranking 17th overall compared to 21 for Kansas State. It also has the Owls winning this game outright.

While I understand (and respect) what goes into those rankings and projections, I’m going to disagree here. Kansas State has the “it factor” while playing with a ton of confidence. You could argue the Wildcats are more battle-tested as well. After all, they ran through the gauntlet of the Big 12 then outlasted Kentucky and Michigan State down the stretch of the last two rounds.

Florida Atlantic is no slouch, and its comeback win over Tennessee was impressive. However, I believe Kansas State has more options for late-game execution, led by Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. This should be a fun one, but ultimately KSU should win and cover the short spread.

The Pick: Kansas State -2 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Friday, March 24

Alabama-San Diego State Under 137

Alabama and San Diego State both profile as strong defensive teams that rank top five in defensive efficiency. The Crimson Tide play fast (6th in tempo), but San Diego State will attempt to slow them down and limit baskets in transition.

Both teams lean towards the under. Alabama has gone 5-1 to the under in its last six games. Keep in mind that five of those were either in the conference or NCAA tournament, so the Crimson Tide have favored the under in that format.

Meanwhile, the Aztecs have gone under the total in 14 of their last 17 games. This is a tried and true “under team” that will attempt to slow the game down to keep within striking distance of Alabama.

Put it all together, and you have a strong pick on under 137 total points.

The Pick: Under 137 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Thursday, March 23

Gonzaga moneyline +115 (vs. UCLA)

In my opinion, this game is a true 50-50 coin flip. Both of these squads are legitimate title contenders, but it feels like Gonzaga can win at the margins. That’s especially true when considering UCLA has injuries in the frontcourt with David Singleton and Adem Bona. Both are listed as questionable, but they’ll probably be less than 100% even if they take the court. That’s key because those players will be tasked with slowing down arguably the best player on the court: Gonzaga forward Drew Timme.

Gonzaga is hot, and I like them to prevail in this game. Go ahead and give me the Zags to win outright at plus-money odds.

The Pick: Gonzaga moneyline | +115 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Saturday, March 18

Moneyline Parlay: San Diego State + Houston (-102)

The second round of the NCAA Tournament starts today, and we have a good ol’ fashioned moneyline parlay in the works. Essentially, we are taking San Diego State and Houston to both win outright, then bundling that into a parlay for -102 odds.

Furman’s win on Thursday was unbelievable. However, let’s be clear about it: Virginia lost that game more than Furman won it. San Diego State has one of the best defenses in college basketball, and the Aztecs are a grind-it-out style of team that usually translates well to the tournament.

Houston and Auburn are both strong defensive teams. However, the Cougars also rank 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Simply put, Houston should outscore Auburn with better execution down the stretch. This game won’t be pretty, but that’s how the Cougars like to play. This game will be strength vs. strength and Houston is more than fine with that approach.

Where to bet: San Diego State + Houston | -102 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Thursday, March 16

West Virginia -2.5 (vs. Maryland)

Maryland has been a solid team this season. Correction: Maryland has been a solid team this season at home. The Terrapins went 15-1 in College Park while gaining most of their resume-boosting wins in their home building. Now they are at a neutral site against a battle-tested opponent in a high-pressure tournament atmosphere.

West Virginia has been solid down the stretch, nearly beating Kansas on the road while outlasting Iowa State and Kansas State. The Mountaineers’ length will give the Terps problems, and WVU has a decided advantage in terms of offensive efficiency and rebounding.

Let’s take West Virginia to win this game, cover the spread, and advance to the second round.

Where to bet: West Virginia -2.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Wednesday, March 15

Nevada moneyline (vs. Arizona State)

The public seems to be leaning towards Arizona State in this game, as the Sun Devils are the Power 5 option. However, most advantages in this matchup go to the Wolfpack as the underdog. According to KenPom, Nevada has an advantage in several important categories. First off, the Wolfpack rank 61st in offensive efficiency compared to 133rd for Arizona State. Nevada ranks 25th in turnover rate, sixth in free throw percentage, and 44th in defensive rebound rate. Those are key factors when considering this will be a close game with every possession counting.

On the contrary, Arizona State ranks 313th in defensive rebound rate, 288th in free throw percentage, and 308th in effective field goal percentage. Yes, the Sun Devils have a solid defense that ranks 29th overall, but the Wolfpack should be able to outscore ASU down the stretch and win in the margins like rebounding, free throws, and turnovers. Take Nevada.

Where to bet: Nevada moneyline | +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Tuesday, March 14

Pittsburgh moneyline +120 (vs. Mississippi State)

This is one of the First Four games played in Dayton, OH with a start time of 9:10 p.m. ET. It feels like the wrong team is favored here, and that’s why I’m rolling with the Pittsburgh moneyline.

Mississippi State has a strong defense that ranks sixth in the nation (per KenPom). However, I don’t believe that’s enough to make up for a lackluster offense, poor free throw shooting, and a high turnover rate. The Bulldogs rank 328th in effective field goal percentage, 257th in turnover rate, 363 in three-point percentage, and 347th in free throw rate. Yikes! That’s not a great recipe when heading into a tight tournament game.

Pittsburgh has the ability to outscore Mississippi State, and there’s a good chance the Panthers will protect the ball much better while sinking free throws (38th in free throw percentage) down the stretch. In other words, Pitt will do all the little things to get this win. The Panthers also have numerous scorers (Burton, Hinson, Cummings, Elliott all average double figures) to crack this Mississippi State defense. One of them is bound to get hot.

Where to bet: Pittsburgh moneyline | +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Sunday, March 12

Memphis +6 (vs. Houston)

Houston will probably be the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of how this game turns out. There’s a good chance Memphis is more motivated to get this win, and the Tigers came close against Houston in both games this season. Memphis lost 64-72 at Houston on Feb. 19 and almost pulled off the upset (67-65) at home on March 5. This is the Tigers chance at redemption.

Memphis is feeling good too, fresh off a 94-54 walloping of Tulane in the previous round. Meanwhile, Houston will limp into this contest with guard Marcus Sasser sustaining a groin injury in yesterday’s game.

We know that Memphis is capable of pulling off the upset or at least keeping it close. I’m expecting the Tigers to bring more energy, and Houston potentially missing Sasser (listed as questionable) and his 17.5 points per game is huge.

Where to bet: Memphis +6 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Friday, March 10

Indiana -1 (vs. Maryland)

Maryland took care of business against Minnesota — the Big Ten’s worst team — with a 70-54 win last night. However, the Terrapins will notice a huge step up in competition against Indiana on Friday.

Maryland has struggled away from home this season. This isn’t a true road game, but we need to consider that the Terps lost four straight games away from home to finish the regular season. Maryland finished just 1-8 on the road in the Big Ten. The Terps’ best wins this season came at home, and they won’t have the luxury of playing in the Xfinity Center on Friday.

Indiana is more battle-tested outside of its own building, and the Hoosiers will have fresher legs for this game. Indiana has been very strong in close games this season, and it will likely need to flex that muscle in this tight contest.

Where to bet: Indiana -1 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Thursday, March 9

Colorado +9 (vs. UCLA)

This game tips off at 3 p.m. ET as part of the Pac-12 Tournament. As it stands, UCLA seems to be heading for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, Colorado could give them a proper challenge in this game.

The Buffaloes have been playing quality basketball, which includes a near upset of UCLA (lost 60-56 at home) on Feb. 26. Colorado gets the job done on defense while ranking 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. In other words, the Buffs can throw UCLA off their game on that side of the floor while trying to shorten this game and hang around.

Where to bet: Colorado +9 | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Wednesday, March 8

Virginia Tech moneyline (vs. NC State)

I’m taking Virginia Tech to notch the outright upset in the second round of the ACC Tournament. Let’s be honest here, this wouldn’t be much of an upset, as these are evenly-matched teams playing on a neutral court.

The Hokies have been playing good basketball as of late, and they hung on to beat Notre Dame 67-64 last night. I’m not worried about Virginia Tech playing on a back-to-back in this spot, as it could serve as a small advantage to being more familiar with the arena/court.

Virginia Tech has the motivational edge here too. The Hokies’ season would end with a loss. That’s not necessarily true for NC State, as most bracket experts have the Wolfpack making the Big Dance regardless of what happens in this ACC Tournament.

Where to bet: Virginia Tech moneyline | +130 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Tuesday, March 7

Gonzaga-St. Mary’s Over 138

Gonzaga has the best offense in the nation, and the Zags play relatively fast while ranking 43rd in adjusted tempo. St. Mary’s plays much slower (359th in tempo), but the Gaels have run with Gonzaga in two meetings this season. St. Mary’s won the first matchup 78-70 at home (148 total points), and Gonzaga took the second matchup by a score of 77-68 for 145 total points.

This conference tournament game on a neutral site has a chance to be “tighter” than those regular season contests, but this feels like an overreaction. St. Mary’s and BYU combined for 145 total points in the West Coast Tournament game yesterday, and now the Gaels are taking on the best offense in the country. Take the over!

Where to bet: Gonzaga-St. Mary’s over 138 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Monday, March 6

North Dakota State-South Dakota State Under 140.5

We cashed North Dakota State-South Dakota Under 142.5 on Sunday. The same rationale applies to NDSU’s next game in the Summit League Tournament.

These teams split this total in two meetings this season, as the first matchup was 65-59 and the second was 90-85. It feels like we’ll get something closer to the former on Monday night.

Neither side plays fast, as South Dakota State ranks 223rd in adjusted tempo and NDSU is 145th. Both teams went under the total in their first Summit League Tournament game, and now they are playing on short rest. This game should be highly competitive at both ends, and we could see tired legs (and missed jumpers) down the stretch.

Where to bet: NDSU-South Dakota State Under 140.5 | -110 at BetMGM

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Sunday, March 5

North Dakota State-South Dakota Under 142.5

This game tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET, and the total is way too high. Let’s consider the following points:

The first time these two teams met (Jan. 7), they combined for 134 points.
The second time these two teams met (Feb. 2), they combined for 133 points.
South Dakota ranks 241st in tempo and NDSU is 145th.

Now we are in a tournament setting, so I’m expecting both teams to come out with energy on defense and play somewhat “tighter” with a low-scoring game. Go ahead and take the under.

Where to bet: NDSU-South Dakota Under 142.5 | -110 at BetMGM

Best College Basketball Bets Today: Saturday, March 4

Fordham -1.5 (vs. Duquesne)

I’m not sure why the spread is so small here. Fordham has been a very strong team at home this season, holding a 17-2 record in its own building. That includes five straight wins, even beating one of the top teams in the conference (St. Louis) by 10 points.

Fordham beat Duquesne on the road earlier this season (Jan. 21) by a score of 65-58. The Dukes have won six of their last eight games, but the competition hasn’t necessarily been strong. In fact, Duquesne is 1-3 against the top four teams in the Atlantic 10 — which includes Fordham.

This line seems off, and the best place to bet Fordham -1.5 is BetMGM for -105 odds. Let’s go ahead and lay 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

Where to bet: Fordham -1.5 | -105 at BetMGM

More College Basketball Betting Resources

Be sure to check out our College Basketball Betting Guide and step-by-step instructions on How To Fill Out A March Madness Bracket when the time comes.

You can find the best online sports betting bonuses available in your state with the following guides:

The post Best College Basketball Bets Today – Top NCAAB Picks & Odds (Updated Daily) appeared first on Props.

NFL Same Game Parlay Picks – SGP Betting For Cowboys vs. Bucs (MNF Wild Card)

Spencer Limbach — Mon, 16 Jan 2023 09:55:31 +0000

This article will outline the best NFL same-game parlay picks for every NFL slate. That includes Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, Sunday’s main slate, and even that Saturday slate on Christmas Eve.

As you probably know, NFL same-game parlays have become increasingly popular over the last year or so. They allow you to play for an increased profit, and they give you the opportunity to build correlated wagers.

Below, we will outline our favorite same-game parlay picks for the current NFL slate.

Best NFL Same Game Parlay Picks Today: Wild Card Monday

Leg 1: Mike Evans Over 64.5 receiving yards
Leg 2: Russell Gage Over 24.5 receiving yards
Leg 3: Dalton Schultz Over 39.5 receiving yards

Same Game Parlay Odds: +500 at Underdog Fantasy

We’ve had some success building same game parlays at Underdog Fantasy, so that’s where we are looking tonight. Plus, Underdog Fantasy is legal in 40+ states, including several without legal sportsbook options like FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings.

New to Underdog? Check out our Underdog Fantasy Review or hit the link below — promo code PROPS — to get a $100 deposit match.

Leg 1: Mike Evans Over 64.5 receiving yards

I’m tailing fellow Props.com writer Josh Shepardson on this one. As he explained in his Buccaneers vs. Cowboys player props article, “Alec Pierce (86 receiving yards), Zay Jones (85), DeVonta Smith (88), and A.J. Brown (70) all had more than 65.5 receiving yards when aligned wide against the Cowboys since Week 13. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Evans played 76.0% of his passing snaps aligned wide in his last six games. So, he’s positioned to smash against a defense that’s been barbecued by perimeter wide receivers.”

Leg 2: Russell Gage Over 24.5 receiving yards

The Bucs will likely sling the ball all over the place on Monday. If you want to add Tom Brady over 28.5 pass completions, then that makes for another correlated leg on this same game parlay. As for Gage, he has beaten this number in three of his last four games, and this number is so low that he could reasonable get there on one or two catches.

Leg 3: Dalton Schultz Over 39.5 receiving yards

The Bucs defense has been up-and-down all season, but they have been consistently generous to opposing tight ends. Schultz has piled up 40+ receiving yards in two of his last three games, and he posted seven catches for 62 yards against Tampa earlier this season. There’s a good chance the Cowboys TE flirts with double-digit targets, which would push him past this number.

Where To Bet NFL Same Game Parlays

The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your SGP betting needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NFL Same Game Parlay Picks.

On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:

DraftKings Sportsbook Review: Find the best offer!
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For more on how SGP betting works, check out the Props.com Guide to Same Game Parlays.

Best NFL Same Game Parlay Picks Today: MNF Week 16

Leg 1: Justin Herbert Over 291.5 total yards
Leg 2: Austin Ekeler Over 0.5 rushing + receiving TDs
Leg 3: Zack Moss Under 57.5 rushing yards

Same Game Parlay Odds: +500 at Underdog Fantasy

New to Underdog? Check out our Underdog Fantasy Review or hit the link below — promo code PROPS — to get a $100 deposit match.

Leg 1: Justin Herbert Over 291.5 total yards

We all know Herbert is the engine of the Chargers’ offense. Sure, Austin Ekeler is great too, but a good chunk of his production comes in the passing game while also counting towards Herbert’s total yardage. The Chargers QB has gone over this mark in five straight games, and he’s poised to keep that streak on Monday Night Football. The Colts defense has gotten toasted in their last two games: giving up 460 yards to Kirk Cousins last week and 54 points to the Cowboys prior to that.

Leg 2: Austin Ekeler Over 0.5 rushing + receiving TDs

So basically, Ekeler needs to find the end-zone. This is the same as betting his anytime touchdown prop, which is listed at -130 odds on DraftKings. That presents good value for us at Underdog Fantasy, and we are looking to roll with it. Matt LaMarca highlighted Ekeler in his Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop article tonight, and I’m in full agreement of that analysis.

Leg 3: Zack Moss Under 57.5 rushing yards

Moss got plenty of carries last week (24) against the Vikings, but that’s because he had game flow on his side with the Colts leading for the entire game — except for overtime! That shouldn’t be the case on Monday, as Moss could easily be in the 12-15 carry range with Indy playing from behind. Moss only averaged 3.4 yards per carry last week, so this prop feels too high. It’s also listed at -130 to under on DraftKings, so we are catch relative value on Underdog Fantasy, which is something we love to screen for.

Best NFL Same Game Parlay Picks Today: MNF Week 15

Use promo code PROPS for up to a $100 deposit match at Underdog Fantasy!

Same Game Parlay Odds: +500 at Underdog Fantasy

New to Underdog? Check out our Underdog Fantasy Review or hit the link below — promo code PROPS — to get a $100 deposit match.

Leg 1: Christian Watson Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Watson has posted 48+ yards in each of his last four games. QB Aaron Rodgers has been peppering the rookie with targets, as Watson has seen six or more looks in each of those outings. Fellow receiver Romeo Doubs is back for Green Bay, but Watson’s role should remain very similar. Look to the over for the North Dakota State product!

Leg 2: Ben Skowronek Over 3.0 Receptions

Fellow Props.com writer Josh Shepardson is taking Skowronek over 2.5 receptions in his Packers vs. Rams player props article. Skowronek was QB Baker Mayfield’s favorite target last week, catching 7-of-8 targets for 89 yards. The Rams step into this game as 7-point road underdogs, so they’ll probably take to the air once again. Skowronek could flirt with double-digit targets, making this one of the most appealing props on Underdog Fantasy.

Leg 3: Mason Crosby Over 1.5 Made Field Goals

We are taking some good old-fashioned value with this prop. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Crosby has -135 odds to go over 1.5 made field goals. When creating a three-leg parlay at Underdog Fantasy, each leg has implied odds of -122. So we are getting 13 cents of value with this selection. Additionally, Crosby has cashed this prop in two straight weeks

Best NFL Same Game Parlay Picks Today: TNF Week 15

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Same Game Parlay Odds: +500 at Underdog Fantasy

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Leg 1: George Kittle Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

We are tailing fellow Props.com writer Josh Shepardson on this one. As Shepardson mentioned in his Seahawks vs. 49ers player props article, Kittle is set up for success in this matchup regardless of who is playing quarterback for San Francisco. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, so the matchup looks good. DraftKings has Kittle’s over listed with -130 juice, giving us inherent value with -122 per leg on Underdog Fantasy.

Leg 2: Will Dissly Over 2.0 Receptions

Dissly has come up with at least two receptions in 11-of-12 games this season. At the very least, we should break even with this leg, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. There’s still a chance Dissly comes up with three catches, especially considering the likely game flow with Seattle needing to pass more than usual to keep pace. DraftKings has Dissly to go over 1.5 receptions at -195, so that gives us a strong implied probability.

Leg 3: Christian McCaffrey Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

The matchup looks good for CMC, as Seattle has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. McCaffrey has topped this number in four of his last six games, and the two misses were due to matchup issues instead of lacking opportunity. McCaffrey is averaging 6.8 targets per game over his last six, which is more than enough volume to cash this prop in a plum draw.

Best NFL Same Game Parlay Picks Today: MNF Week 14

Use promo code PROPS for up to $100 deposit match at Underdog Fantasy!

Same Game Parlay Odds: +500 at Underdog Fantasy

New to Underdog? Check out our Underdog Fantasy Review or hit the link below — promo code PROPS — to get a $100 deposit match.

Leg 1: Kyler Murray Over 36.5 Rushing Yards

Murray has plenty working in his favor when it comes to this prop. He has ran the ball seven or more times in five straight games. The Cardinals’ QB has gone over 36.5 rushing yards in four of his last six. The Patriots limited Bills QB Josh Allen to 20 rushing yards on eight attempts last week, but they weren’t great against running signal callers prior to that: Justin Fields 14 carries, 82 yards and Lamar Jackson 11 carries 107 yards. Take Murray’s over!

Leg 2: Jonnu Smith Over 12.5 Receiving Yards

Shoutout to fellow Props.com writer Josh Shepardson for this one. You can read his full breakdown (and two other props) in the Cardinals vs. Patriots player props article. Smith has been up and down this season while splitting time with TE Hunter Henry. The Patriots’ top target, WR Jacobi Meyers, will not play on Monday, so ancillary pass catchers like Smith will need to step up. It helps that the Cardinals have allowed the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Leg 3: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 75.5 Rushing Yards

Stevenson has gone under this number in six straight games. Furthermore, DraftKings has this prop with -145 odds to the Under, so we are catching value with implied -122 odds at Underdog Fantasy. The Cardinals are decent against the run as well, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs this season.

Best NFL Same Game Parlay Picks Today: TNF Week 14

Use promo code PROPS to get up to $100 deposit match at Underdog Fantasy.

Same Game Parlay Odds: +500 at Underdog Fantasy

New to Underdog? Check out our Underdog Fantasy Review or hit the link below — promo code PROPS — to get a $100 deposit match.

Leg 1: Kyren Williams Under 26.5 Rushing Yards

Williams had a few solid games of 35+ rushing yards. However, he lost work to Cam Akers last week, picking up just nine rushing yards on three carries. Akers should headline the Rams’ backfield once again, and that leaves Williams’ workload in question. Game flow could work against the Rams’ running game as well, so Williams probably won’t see enough volume to push toward this number.

Leg 2: Davante Adams Over 7.0 Receptions

The Raiders are finally getting their money’s worth out of Adams. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow will continue to miss time, which pushes more targets towards Adams. As a result, the new acquisition has recorded seven or more receptions in five straight games. He should see around 12+ targets in this contest, which is more than enough to push him past this prop total.

Leg 3: Derek Carr Over 250.5 Passing Yards

Fellow Props.com analyst Josh Shepardson was all over this in his Rams vs. Raiders player props article, and I’m tailing it. Carr is averaging nearly 272 passing yards in his last five with a median output of 259. Shepardson adds that the Rams rank 24th in pass DVOA since Week 10, and the Raiders could rely on the passing game more with RB Josh Jacobs playing through a calf injury.65

The post NFL Same Game Parlay Picks – SGP Betting For Cowboys vs. Bucs (MNF Wild Card) appeared first on Props.

5 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks & Props: Best Bets For Every Game

Spencer Limbach — Sun, 15 Jan 2023 12:01:53 +0000

NFL Wild Card Weekend has arrived, even though it’s not exclusive to Wild Card teams or the weekend. I guess that’s why we are supposed to call it Super Wild Card Weekend now. Either way, while you are taking a break from refreshing Twitter for Lamar Jackson updates, go ahead and check out my five NFL Wild Card Weekend picks and props for the games on Saturday and Sunday. Or should I say, check out my SUPER picks and SUPER props for the weekend? Yep, that’s better.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks: Saturday

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (4:30 pm ET)

Does this have to be the first pick of the article? My OCD says we should keep it in chronological order, so that’s what we’ll do.

The reason I don’t want this to be first is I have such a bland, vanilla, chalky recommendation for this game. Yes, I’m going with the 49ers -9. I think my two-year-old niece is betting her Cocomelon toys on the 49ers spread too.

You don’t need me to tell you to bet on San Francisco, but how could you take the other side here? The 49ers are on a roll and at home while playing a team that flailed down the stretch while relying on a Green Bay collapse to barely sneak into the playoffs.

I’m not going to overthink it. Caesars Sportsbook has the 49ers favored by 9 points whereas the other books have the spread at 9.5 or 10. I’m heading over there to make this pick.

The Pick: 49ers -9 | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (8:15 pm ET)

The Chargers should win this game. Should. I’m taking them against the spread (-2.5) in my NFL parlay for the week, but I’m not sure that’s the optimal bet for this game. For me, betting on the Chargers is like ordering a latte at Dunkin’ Donuts. The coffee at Dunkin’ is good, but the lattes and other drinks are unpredictable. Your order should be tasty in theory: they have all the ingredients and a solid foundation with quality coffee. Yet a simple iced vanilla latte at Dunkin’ is a true gamble. It’s either nirvana or so terrible that you can’t believe you spent money on it. That’s the Chargers.

So what’s the best bet for this game? I’m tailing my guy Josh Shepardson, who made the case for Austin Ekeler over 36.5 receiving yards in his Jaguars vs. Chargers Player Props article. Ekeler has beaten this line in 12-of-17 games this season. So what’s the catch? WR Mike Williams is out for the Chargers, which could enhance Ekeler’s target share. That’s not the catch. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs this season. That’s not it either. I guess it’s full steam ahead with this prop!

Go grab this one at Caesars Sportsbook, where it’s still 36.5 receiving yards compared to 38.5 at FanDuel and 37.5 at DraftKings.

The Pick: Austin Ekeler over 36.5 receiving yards | -115 Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks: Sunday

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

There are several different ways to slice this game. I tried looking at a player performance double: Josh Allen over 250 passing yards and the Bills to win. While that’s viable, I’m not in love with the -110 odds at FanDuel. I shopped around and still couldn’t find a prop on the number of total ‘Penguin’ Waddle dances on the broadcast.

https://twitter.com/betthepigskin/status/1569401340941443072

Instead, I found a better solution: Stefon Diggs to have the most receiving yards in this game (+155 at FanDuel)

Diggs has an over/under of 79.5 receiving yards. Tyreek Hill is next at 61.5, then Gabe Davis (48.5), and Jaylen Waddle (47.5). The fact that QB Skylar Thompson is starting limits the upside of Hill and Waddle. Thompson has been the primary QB in three games this season. Hill’s highest yardage output was 55 yards while Waddle’s was 52.

Meanwhile, Diggs’ floor for receiving yards is around 60 yards, which could cash this prop if the rationale in the previous paragraph holds. Diggs also has a legitimate chance of getting to 100-120+ yards while the upside for Hill and Waddle is capped.

The Pick: Most Receiving Yards of Game: Stefon Diggs | +155 at FanDuel

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

Don’t think of this as investing in the Giants’ passing game. Instead, this is a short sell of the Vikings’ pass defense. Okay, now that you are in the correct mindset, let me reveal the top pick from this game:

Richie James Jr. over 47.5 receiving yards

The Vikings have allowed the most passing yards this season. Even worse, they let Daniel Jones throw for 334 yards while completing 30-of-42 attempts in Week 16. This rematch could follow a similar script, and New York would be wise to attack Minnesota’s defensive ineptitude.

Who was the Giants leading receiver that day? It was none other than Richie James Jr, who posted eight catches for 90 yards against Minnesota. The 27-year-old also led New York in targets, receptions, and receiving yards with a cool 7-76-1 line against the Colts in Week 17.

Let’s cash in on this angle by taking James over 47.5 receiving yards on Sunday. The best shop to grab this one is BetMGM, which is hanging 47.5 yards compared to 49.5 and even 50.5 at other books.

The Pick: Richie James Jr. over 47.5 receiving yards | -120 at BetMGM

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

I opened this article by picking the 49ers and saying I’m not overthinking it. Well, I could be overthinking this Ravens-Bengals pick entirely, but here’s my impression:

I believe the Bengals win but Baltimore keeps it relatively close. Instead of taking the Ravens spread, I’m going to walk on the wild side with a bet on the winning margin.

So here’s the bet on FanDuel: Bengals winning margin 1-13 points. By doing this, the odds jump to +135.

This is something I occasionally like to do when I’m leaning towards an underdog, but I don’t like their chances at an outright victory. Don’t get crazy with this betting strategy, but there are times when it seems appropriate, and a divisional contest in the Wild Card round seems like the time to bust it out.

You can look at the wager like this: I’m getting the Ravens +13.5 with the caveat that they cannot win the game.

The Pick: Bengals winning margin 1-13 points | +135 at FanDuel Sportsbook

The post 5 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks & Props: Best Bets For Every Game appeared first on Props.

MLB Division Odds: Top American League Value Bets

Spencer Limbach — Wed, 06 Apr 2022 05:55:39 +0000

Baseball is back, with Opening Day scheduled for April 7, and MLB division odds are on betting boards from coast to coast.

There’s hope in the air as each club starts on level footing with a 0-0 record. Some fanbases have more optimism than others, as any Orioles or A’s fan can attest.

People are overreacting to home runs (or a lack thereof) in spring training. Every team’s coaching staff and front office is excited about their young prospects making progress. Blah, blah, blah. We’re throwing the fandom and soundbites out the window and looking at MLB division odds with an objective lens. More specifically, we’ll try to spot value opportunities on teams with a legitimate chance to vie for a divisional crown.

On top of that, we’ll shop around to find the best price on these recommendations and deliver them straight to your doorstep. (That’s an analogy, of course. We won’t actually show up at your house.)

With that, Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a breakdown of odds for all six divisions.

All odds are updated as of 5 p.m. ET on March 31.

MLB Division Odds: AL East

Toronto Blue Jays +175
New York Yankees +195
Tampa Bay Rays +320
Boston Red Sox +550
Baltimore Orioles +15,000

The odds tell the story: This is an extremely competitive division, with no clear-cut favorite expected to run away from the pack.

Investing in the Toronto Blue Jays as the slight favorite to win the AL East is somewhat intriguing. Led by AL MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero, the bluebirds have arguably the most powerful lineup in baseball. They also bolstered their rotation with the additions of Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi, offsetting the loss of Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (signed with Seattle). On top of that, the Jays will get a full season out of last year’s mid-season acquisition, right-hander Jose Berrios, who is one of MLB’s most durable and consistent starting pitchers.

So what’s the catch? Well, Toronto is still a young team that will have to deal with a full season of high expectations in a brutal division. Yes, the Blue Jays have talent across the board, but you can’t crown them kings of the AL East on paper alone. If they stumble, then there are plenty of candidates ready and able to knock the Jays off their preseason betting-odds perch.

What about the second choice on the odds board? Can the Bronx Bombers climb the AL East mountain by the end of September? Certainly. However, there’s not a ton of value at this +195 price tag. (New York is too cheap? Who would’ve thought?)

So where is the value? How about with the team that won the AL East by eight games last season …

AL East Value Bet

Image Credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

The bet: Tampa Bay Rays +320
Where to bet: PointsBet USA & DraftKings Sportsbook

This isn’t a flashy bet, but it represents some good ol’ fashioned bang for the buck.

Why is everyone sleeping on the Rays? They have claimed the AL East in back-to-back seasons, and there’s no glaring reason to expect a drop-off. Barring injuries, Tampa Bay should be fighting for the division with Toronto and New York every step of the way.

It’s conceivable that the Rays have as good a chance as the Jays and Yanks to claim the division crown, but their +320 payout yields a much healthier return. After all, Tampa Bay’s projected win total stands at 91.5 heading into the season. That’s tied with the Yankees (91.5 at DraftKings) and marginally behind Toronto at 92.5.

Go ahead and give me that warm, fuzzy value in the form of Tampa Bay to win the AL East. Depending on where you shop, the Rays are anywhere from +240 to +320 to win the division, so make sure you snag the best possible price (which we found for you at PointsBet USA and DraftKings).

[amaff_cta slug=”pointsbet”]

MLB Division Odds: AL Central

Chicago White Sox -200
Minnesota Twins +525
Detroit Tigers +750
Cleveland Guardians +1,100
Kansas City Royals +1,400

The White Sox are overwhelming favorites to win the AL Central. That makes plenty of sense considering they are fresh off a 93-win season, boast a top-10 lineup, and a top-five pitching staff. The talent level isn’t the question with this club. The pieces are there. It mostly comes down to price. Are you comfortable laying -200 juice and holding your breath for six months that the White Sox don’t get bitten by the injury bug (or simply underperform)?

If the answer is “Uh, no”, then take your pick on a usurper. But good luck with that, as every other AL Central clubhouse has its fair share of blemishes that aren’t present in Chicago’s. Consider:

The Twins will score a bunch of runs (especially after adding Carlos Correa), but their pitching rotation has plenty of questions.
The Tigers made several nice offseason moves and should be improved. But they still seem a few pieces away — especially on the mound — from seriously competing for a division crown.
The Guardians are playing it conservative. The pitching is there, but Cleveland didn’t do much to improve a bottom-10 offense from 2021.
The Royals are in rebuild mode while trying to bridge the gap to a brighter future — not exactly a recipe for winning the division.

So what’s the move here? Is it Chicago or pass in the AL Central? Well, we have a potential value contender that’s at least worth a look.

AL Central Value Bet

Image Credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

The bet: Minnesota Twins +525
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook

Yes, everything sets up for the White Sox to win the AL Central. But check the headline of this article. We are talking “value bets” and not “obvious bets with extreme juice”. Baseball is a long season that brings plenty of variables. I’m embracing that variability and taking a shot with the Twins to contend for the division crown.

This Minnesota team won back-to-back AL Central titles in 2019 and 2020. Then 2021 happened. The Twins’ first two months of last season can be summed up in two words: Murphy’s Law — anything that could go wrong did, especially when it came to the bullpen and the team’s injured star player. Buried in the standings by mid-May, Minnesota decided to trade away some of its assets with an eye to the future.

Well, the future very well could be now. The Twins made a splash by signing shortstop Carlos Correa, making a statement that they indeed intend to contend for the divisional crown. Minnesota’s lineup has the appearance of a top-10 offense. Unfortunately, the pitching staff is riddled with question marks.

New acquisition Sonny Gray could be a stabilizing force, but relying on past-their-prime Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy for respectable, bounce-back seasons might be asking a bit much. On the bright side, two high-upside prospects — Jhoan Duran and Josh Winder — could factor into the mix at some point in the season.

If the Twins can post an average starting rotation this season and catch a couple of breaks — namely, good health for them and maybe not so much for their division colleagues — they could challenge the White Sox.

If you’re interested in a dark horse to win the AL Central, head over to Caesars Sportsbook, which has Minnesota at +525 compared with +500 at most other sportsbooks.

[amaff_cta slug=”caesars-sportsbook”]

MLB Division Odds: AL West

Houston Astros -160
Los Angeles Angels +380
Seattle Mariners +460
Texas Rangers +1,800
Oakland Athletics +2,500

Like the White Sox, Houston is the odds-on favorite to win its division, priced anywhere from -160 to -182. The Astros already had a high-end starting pitching rotation, and now they get Justin Verlander back after he missed almost all of last season following Tommy John surgery. And even though Houston lost star shortstop Correa to the Twins, this offense is still dangerous from the top down.

The Angels and Mariners are interesting cases. Both have been classic underachievers for several years. Is this the summer one or both finally put it all together? I’m as skeptical as a conspiracy theorist watching a moon-landing documentary.

The Angels revved up their bullpen, but they didn’t exactly fix the starting pitching situation, beyond acquiring a broken-down-and-maybe-rebuilt Noah Syndergaard.

The Mariners made some bold offseason moves, including signing Ray from Toronto to lead the pitching staff. But let’s not forget Seattle was extremely lucky to get to 90 wins last season. The regression monster could take hold. (Let’s also not forget that this franchise hasn’t reached the postseason since 2000!)

The Rangers paid a bundle to add Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to the middle of their infield. However, those additions didn’t solve all the problems for a team that lost 102 games in 2021.

As for the A’s, well, there isn’t much worth saying beyond what Props.com’s Jason Scavone said in his AL West Win Totals article. (Point your eyes to Oakland’s “Additions” and “Subtractions” sections). Not only did the A’s get rid of pretty much everyone this offseason, they’re almost certainly not done. That’s a bold strategy Cotton; let’s see if it pays off for them.

AL West Value Bet

Image Credit: Elsa/Getty Images

The bet: Houston Astros -160
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook

When looking at the AL West division odds, it’s essentially a referendum on Houston, which has taken the crown four of the last five years.

Not only could you argue that the Astros play in the weakest of the AL’s three divisions, but Fangraphs gives them a 71 percent chance to win it again. For comparison, the White Sox have a 65 percent chance to win the AL Central. So there’s a better probability with Houston and at a cheaper price. (Looking even deeper, the Dodgers have a 72 percent chance to take the NL West, and they’re holding onto a -220 price tag. The Brewers are at 72 percent to capture the NL Central and -180 odds.)

So let’s go ahead and swallow hard and lay the number with the Astros. Just make sure you get the best price, which is currently -160 at Caesars, much better than PointsBet (-182), FanDuel (-170), and DraftKings (-175).

Remember: Friends don’t let friends lay unnecessary juice.

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: West Region

Spencer Limbach — Thu, 24 Mar 2022 16:30:48 +0000

Here we go with NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props for the West Region!

So far, the chalk has advanced in this quadrant of the bracket, meaning we have two fantastic matchups on tap Thursday.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga and No. 4 seed Arkansas take the court first at the Chase Center in San Francisco in what’s expected to be an up-tempo clash that lights up the scoreboard. The nightcap features defensive-minded No. 3 seed Texas Tech, which is actually a slight favorite against second-seeded Duke.

Props.com breaks down four available NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props for both of Thursday’s West Region contests.

Odds via PointsBet USA as of 1:45 p.m. ET on March 24.

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: Gonzaga Vs. Arkansas

Time: 7:09 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: Gonzaga -10/154.5 (Under -115)

First-Half Spread

Image Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

The prop: Gonzaga in the first half (vs. Arkansas)
The odds: Gonzaga -3.5 (-140)/Arkansas +3.5 (+110)

If you recall, Gonzaga got off to a slow start in the first round against Georgia State. The mighty Zags, who went off as massive 22.5-point favorites, owned a slim 35-33 halftime lead before eventually rolling to a 93-72 victory.

Gonzaga’s start was even slower in the Round of 32, as Memphis took a 41-31 advantage into the locker room. Naismith Trophy candidate Drew Timme caught fire in the second half, and the Bulldogs advanced to the Sweet 16 with a hard-fought 82-78 victory.

However, one has to wonder if this is merely a two-game aberration or a start of a trend.

Without a doubt, Gonzaga coach Mark Few has addressed the matter with his squad in practice this week. On the other hand, Gonzaga is a fast-paced, jump-shooting team that sometimes takes a while to find its rhythm.

Meanwhile, Arkansas held a halftime lead in both its opening-weekend Tournament games, and did so with relative easy. The Hogs bested Vermont by seven and New Mexico State by nine in the first 20 minutes.

Obviously, playing up in class against Gonzaga presents a different challenge for the Razorbacks. But the Zags barely held a first-half lead against a No. 16 seed last Thursday, then came back 48 hours later and trailed by 10 to a No. 9 seed. Jump on Arkansas +3.5 at plus money, and let’s see if Gonzaga’s slow-start tendencies surface once again.

Arkansas Razorbacks: F Jaylin Williams

Image Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

The prop: 11.5 points
The odds: Over -105/Under -125

Several reasons to play this player prop Over the number PointsBet USA, and here are some of them:

Williams has scored 12-plus points in 13 of his last 18 games, including a 13-point effort against Vermont in last week’s opening round.
According to KenPom, Gonzaga plays at the sixth-fastest pace in college basketball. The means more possessions than usual for Arkansas (and Williams) to score.
Williams played the entire game (40 minutes) in Arkansas’ second-round win against New Mexico State. He had an off night shooting from the field (3-for-10) and finished with just 10 points. But he was on the floor for the duration — which, you know, is kind of crucial when betting the Over on a player prop.

All that said, there’s one major obstacle standing in the way of Williams eclipsing this point total: foul trouble. Gonzaga’s front line of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren have a penchant for drawing fouls.

If Williams can avoid the whistles and play 35-40 minutes, he should breeze Over 11.5 points.

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: Duke Vs. Texas Tech

Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: PK/136.5

Total Points: Duke Blue Devils

Image Credit: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The prop: Duke 68.5 total points
The odds: Over -115/Under -115

According to KenPom, Duke ranks sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Blue Devils have reached at least 69 points in 11 of their last 13 games. So what gives with this prop? Why is this plus-money to the Over?

The answer to that question is Duke’s opponent. Texas Tech has the top defense in the country, ranking first overall in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders also play slow, ranking 217th in tempo. That’s a recipe for Unders, especially when it comes to opponents’ point totals.

Duke has failed to score 69 points only three times in 15 contests since the start of February. Two of those came against Virginia, a defensive-oriented team that plays slow. In fact, Virginia is the ACC’s version of Texas Tech: methodical on offense and in your face on defense. You better believe the Red Raiders, who can’t match Duke’s overall athleticism, will do everything they can to control tempo and keep this one low-scoring.

It would be nice not to have to lay extra juice. But the fact it’s there tells us that oddsmakers expect a much different pace than Gonzaga-Arkansas.

Duke Blue Devils: F Wendell Moore Jr.

Image Credit: Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The prop: 12.5 points
The odds: Over -110/Under -120

If we’re recommending playing Duke’s total points Under the total, you probably know where we’re going with this one. To repeat what was just stated: Texas Tech has the best defense in the country and plays at a relatively slow pace. Here’s the translation as it pertains to Moore’s points prop: Fewer possessions for Moore and the Blue Devils, and those offensive sets will be met with more resistance than usual.

Earlier, I outlined that Duke’s low-scoring games against Virginia serve as adequate comparisons to its matchup with Texas Tech. Well, Moore only scored 9 and 4 points in two meetings against Virginia this season.

There wasn’t a whole lot of defense played in the ACC this season, as North Carolina led the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking just 43rd nationally. Moore’s point totals in two games against the Tar Heels: 13 and 8 points.

Texas Tech represents the best defense Moore and the Blue Devils will see to this point in their season (yes, better than Virginia and UNC). Because of that, there’s only way to bet this prop: Under.

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SEC Championship Betting Preview: Alabama In Unfamiliar Territory

Spencer Limbach — Sat, 04 Dec 2021 05:05:22 +0000

This week marks the first time in 92 games that Alabama will take the field as an underdog, as the Crimson Tide are a 6.5-point pup versus No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship. The last time Nick Saban’s squad was getting points? Oct. 3, 2015, against … yep, Georgia. Alabama was a 1.5-point road underdog in that contest, but the Tide went on to defeat the Bulldogs 38-10.

It’s difficult to envision a similar scenario playing out Saturday in Atlanta, as Georgia hasn’t even given up 38 points in its last five games combined. So what can we expect in this battle of top four teams? Should you take the points with Alabama, or will the Bulldogs continue to roll (pardon the pun) without breaking stride? We break it all down while looking at the current odds, action, trends, and sportsbook data in this SEC Championship Betting Preview.

Game Info

Date: Saturday, December 4
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia (neutral site)
TV: CBS
Weather: Dome

Best Odds

Sportsbook	Spread	Total
FanDuel	Georgia -6.5 (-115)	48.5
DraftKings	Georgia -6.5 (-115)	49.5
BetMGM	Georgia -6.5 (-110)	49.5
Caesars	Georgia -6.5 (-110)	49.5
FoxBET	Georgia -6.5 (-118)	49

Odds updated as of 2:40 pm ET Dec. 3.

Betting Action Report: Money On The Dawgs

Image Credit: Joshua Jones—USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The SEC championship look-ahead line at DraftKings was Georgia -4. When the matchup reopened Sunday morning, the Bulldogs were 6.5-point favorites. Georgia then bounced between -6.5 and -6 a few times and is currently -6.5 (-115). Bettors definitely like the Dawgs at less than a touchdown, with 78% of tickets and 88% money on Georgia. The total moved from 50.5 to 51, then backed up to 49.5, with the Over drawing 52% of bets and 63% of money.

Editor’s Note: Check out Patrick Everson’s College Football Week 14 Action Report with betting insights on Iowa-Michigan, Baylor-Oklahoma State, and more.

BetPrep Betting Trends

Georgia Key Trends

The Dawgs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite.
Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games.
The Under is 6-2 in UGA’s last eight games.

Alabama Key Trends

The Crimson Tide have covered in four of their last five as an underdog.
Alabama is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.
The Under is 4-1-1 in the Tide’s last six neutral site games.

Statistical Trends

If Alabama is going to avoid its second loss of the season, the Crimson Tide will need to do something that no opponent has done against Georgia: Figure out the Dawgs’ defense.

Georgia enters Saturday’s SEC championship allowing just 6.9 points per contest and hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game all year. The Bulldogs are the first team to enter a conference championship game allowing less than seven points per game; the last FBS team to finish the regular season holding opponents to less than a touchdown per game was Oklahoma in 1986.

Conversely, Bama has scored at least 20 points in each of its past 38 games, the second-longest active streak in FBS. The last time the Tide were held under 20 points was against Clemson in the 2018 national championship game.

Final Thoughts

Here’s what Props.com’s Matt Perrault had to say about this game on the Props City Podcast:

“A part of me says to bet this [live] in-game. At first blush, this is a Georgia rout. … Man, that Alabama offensive line is going to have a real tough time against Georgia. That’s the whole game to me. Can they keep Bryce Young upright?”

Banking on Georgia? You can find the Bulldogs -6.5 (-110) at numerous sites, including BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet.

Rolling with the Tide? The best spread/price combination comes in the form of Alabama +6.5 (+100) at FoxBet.

Everyone loves the Bulldogs. At BetMGM, Georgia -6.5 has the most tickets and handle of any college football game this weekend.

The post SEC Championship Betting Preview: Alabama In Unfamiliar Territory appeared first on Props.

PrizePicks College Football Props Week 9: Over The Rainbow Warriors

Spencer Limbach — Fri, 29 Oct 2021 20:09:43 +0000

Last week represented our first losing stanza in some time. Cue the sad trombone. We went 3-4 on these college football props last time around, but things are still looking up with a 13-6 record over the past three. Let’s zoom out a little bit and keep that momentum going. As usual, we will turn to PrizePicks for these listings.

PrizePicks is technically a fantasy sports site, although they allow you to wager on a series of prop bets within their platform. They are legal in 30 states as well, including some places that don’t allow sports betting at the moment.

You can read more details on how and where to play Prizepicks by clicking here.

Another cool thing about PrizePicks is that they have college football props listed. I have perused those lines to find the best College Football Props for Week 9 – all of which can be found on the PrizePicks app.

With that, let’s get to the best props!

QB Logan Bonner – Utah State: OVER 234.5 Passing Yards

Image Credit: Chris Gardner/Getty Images

This can’t be right? My model has Bonner conservatively projected for nearly 300 yards against Hawaii on Saturday. We’ll take that value…I guess?

Bonner crossed this total in four of his last six games, and three of those weren’t even close with 275-300+ yards. He has proven his ability to air it out with a 390 yard game against North Dakota earlier this season.

Logan Bonner dropped it right in the bread basket @USUFootball pic.twitter.com/6UMu0Tu0Kz

— Stadium (@Stadium) October 24, 2021

It’s not like Hawaii has an excellent pass defense either. The Warriors currently rank 113th in the country while allowing more than 282 passing yards per contest.

I don’t understand why this passing prop is so low, but I’m not going to complain. Grab it before PrizePicks decides to rise it too much. I’ll take it up to 265 yards to be safe.

QB Aidan O’Connell – Purdue: OVER 234.5 Passing Yards

Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

O’Connell will take on Nebraska this weekend, a team that is coming off a bye with a pretty solid defense. However, I’m still very optimistic that the Boilermakers’ QB can easily surpass this prop.

First off, O’Connell has beaten this passing total in much tougher matchups. He posted 371 yards against Minnesota and 375 yards against Iowa in back-to-back weeks. That’s pretty impressive.

The Purdue QB has volume on his side. In those aforementioned matchups, he slung the ball 52 and 40 times respectively. That’s a realistic range for his upcoming matchup with Nebraska. In fact, Purdue ranks eighth in the country in passing rate, as they throw the ball more than 60% of the time.

Now let’s address the elephant in the room. O’Connell was extremely shaky against Wisconsin, tossing three interceptions. However, he’s still listed as QB1 for the Boilermakers. There’s a chance Jack Plummer will take some snaps if O’Connell struggles, but #16 will take the first reps.

Honestly, I believe O’Connell can easily march over this total on volume alone. This is another spot where my projections have him closer to 300 yards. That makes the prospect of losing a few snaps in a QB rotation more tolerable.

RB Max Borghi – Washington State: OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards

Image Credit: Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

It would be nice if Borghi got more carries, but we can safely assume that he’ll have 15-18 attempts to make it over this 56.5 rushing yard total. That comes out to anywhere from 3.14 to 3.77 yards per attempt. Pretty manageable, right?

Borghi is averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season, and his career marks are even better. That makes things look even better as far as this prop goes.

Max Borghi (Washington State RB) shows great balance here to stay on his feet and score the touchdown!

He has some fans in the draft community and could be a solid 3rd down back at the next level! https://t.co/7JqlJhejil

— Good, Bettor, Bets (@GoodBettorPod) October 23, 2021

Arizona State has been decent against the run, but they still allow 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. That number starts to spike when you examine how the Sun Devils performed against legitimate running backs:

Tavion Thomas (RB – UTA): 20-84
Zach Charbonnet (RB – UCLA): 21-89
Tyler Allgeier (RB – BYU): 21-69

It’s safe to say that Borghi is in similar company as that list in terms of ability and rushing potential. The Wazzu RB has cleared 80 yards in back-to-back games, and I believe he has an excellent chance to make it three straight.

More College Football Props

Jeff Sims (QB – GT) OVER 224.5 Pass Yards. Georgia Tech is not afraid to let Sims sling the ball around the yard. The Yellow Jackets’ QB has thrown for more than 297 yards in three straight games, yet his prop rests at a comfortable 224.5 level. Take the over!

Makai Polk (WR – MSST) OVER 6.5 Receptions. Mississippi State loves to throw short passes, which really benefits Polk’s reception total. He has gone over 6.5 catches in five of seven games this season. The two shortcomings came in double-digit victories when the Bulldogs throttled back their passing game. That won’t be the case against #12 Kentucky.

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