Around this time each year, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews posts his College Football Games of the Year odds. It’s always a revealing experiment, drawing plenty of sharp minds to Andrews’ shop on the south end of Las Vegas Boulevard.

The 2022 release — 99 games in all — happened Friday, June 4. For a couple of hours, money flew fast and furious on many of those matchups. And line movement was fast and furious, as well.

Props.com talked with Andrews and professional bettor Paul Stone about this annual South Point sojourn.

2022 College Football Games of the Year Odds

Odds on select games via South Point sportsbook and updated as of 6:30 p.m. ET on June 4.

* Neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas

Bettors Back Bama

It’s not like Andrews doesn’t respect Alabama. After all, the Crimson Tide have reached the College Football Playoff in seven of the eight years the format has existed.

“I had Alabama way up there in my power rankings, but I had Ohio State No. 1,” Andrews said.

The initial slew of sharp Bama money has Andrews reassessing his ratings, with the Tide perhaps a co-No. 1 with Ohio State. Bettors could wager up to $2,000 a pop, two bets at a time before having to go to the back of the line to repeat that process. And the Crimson Tide certainly took their share of early cash. Andrews pointed to one game in specific.

“Alabama opened -6.5 at Tennessee,” Andrews said of an Oct. 15 SEC clash. “Now I’m up to -10.5.”

But that wasn’t the only notable Bama move. The first matchup listed on the South Point College Football Games of the Year odds sheet — Alabama vs. Texas on Sept. 10 — is already up to Crimson Tide -14 from a -12 opener. Texas A&M at Alabama — sure to be extra spicy on Oct. 8 in the wake of the recent Jimbo Fisher-Nick Saban brouhaha — has gone from Alabama -13.5 to -15.

“I took Alabama -13.5. I think it’s a statement game for Alabama. They lost last year at College Station as an 18-point favorite,” Stone said, alluding to the Crimson Tide’s 41-38 setback in October — Saban’s only regular-season defeat in 2021.

In the Nov. 26 Iron Bowl, Alabama opened as a hefty 18-point home chalk vs. Auburn and is already out to -21.

More Big Movers

A battle of service academies took honors for the largest odds shift on Day 1 in the College Football Games of the Year odds market at South Point.

“The biggest mover of all was Navy vs. Air Force,” Andrews said of an Oct. 1 showdown on the Falcons’ home field. “It opened at Air Force -19, and I’m down to -12.”

Stone leaned into that game, firing immediately while Navy was still +19.

“It’s just based on the fact that service academy games are slow, methodical, option football,” Stone said. “It’s a short game, they know each other’s unique style. That just seemed like a big number in this game.”

Other big moves Andrews noted:

• USC at Utah, Oct. 15, with the host Utes tumbling from -12 to -7
• Wake Forest at Louisville, Oct. 29, with the Cardinals dropping from -8 to -4 at home

Stone pointed to another Wake Forest tilt, a home battle against North Carolina on Nov. 12. The game opened a pick ’em and moved to Demon Deacons -2.5.

“I took Wake Forest pick. I made Wake Forest an 8.5-point favorite over North Carolina,” Stone said. “North Carolina loses [QB] Sam Howell, so they won’t be better on offense this year. And they didn’t play good defense last year.”

Respected Money

Andrews acknowledged that, with a slew of sizable wagers coming in right away, he and his risk team quickly adjust the lines. As noted above, those adjustments can be quite significant when a team draws a consistent stream of sharp action, be it $2,000 max bets or $500-$1,000 wagers.

“These guys who bet you that first day are really sharp, so you’ve got to give them a ton of respect,” Andrews said. “Judging by the handicappers’ [wagers], the teams that I underrated are Alabama, Washington, Utah State, Navy, USC, and Wake Forest. The teams I overrated: Tennessee, Iowa, BYU, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Louisville.”

A few of those perceived overrated/underrated teams showed up among the aforementioned big early line moves. That said, bettors’ disdain for one particular team didn’t really surprise Andrews. “It’s a joke I make every year — I overrate Oklahoma,” he said. “It’s an annual rite of summer.”

Sharp bettors (including Stone) faded the Sooners multiple times. Among the noteworthy Oklahoma moves:

• From -14 to -11 hosting Kansas State on Sept. 24
• -7 to -4.5 vs. Texas on Oct. 8 in the annual neutral-site Red River Rivalry
• -14 to -11.5 hosting Baylor on Nov. 5
• -13 to -10 hosting Oklahoma State in the Bedlam game Nov. 1

“In my opinion, Chris had Oklahoma overrated. I actually took four of the Sooners’ opponents,” Stone said. “The Sooners lost a lot of offensive firepower that left with [coach] Lincoln Riley to go to Southern Cal.”

Surprise Selections

“I’m high on Tennessee and BYU this year,” Andrews said. “I was surprised that they got bet against so much.”

Alabama-Tennessee was the most notable case of wiseguys fading the Vols. Additionally, Tennessee moved from +12 to +14 at defending national champion Georgia on Nov. 5. Meanwhile, Brigham Young dropped from -8 to -4.5 at home vs. Baylor on Sept. 10; fell from -24 to -20 for a Sept. 29 home battle vs. Utah State; and dipped to -3 from -5 at home vs. Arkansas on Oct. 15.

Andrews acknowledged that the transfer portal could lead to significant changes in his power rankings — and therefore the point spreads — in several games. Specifically, USC could be a team to watch out for under new coach Riley. But at the moment, Andrews isn’t sold on the early support for the Trojans.

“USC garnered a lot of money, and I have lot of money in the futures book on USC,” Andrews said. “USC has a lot of challenges this year. At this time, I think the Trojans are overrated. But that’s just one man’s humble opinion. We’ll see what happens.”

In addition to bettors grabbing the points with USC at Utah, the Trojans moved from -4 to -6 at Stanford on Sept. 10; from +5 to +3 at UCLA on Nov. 19; and from +5 to +3 hosting Notre Dame on Nov. 26.

Fiddle With the Middle

Stone put himself in a nice position for the USC-Utah matchup.

“In mid-May, I got Utah +1.5 vs. Southern Cal at FanDuel in Louisiana. Coming back, I took USC +12 in the same game at South Point,” he said. “One of the goals of betting these games this early, especially with the widespread legalization of sports betting, is finding books with aggressive numbers.”

And Andrews has no issue with that whatsoever.

“I know some other books had some numbers up. We totally ignored them; didn’t look at them at all,” Andrews said. “We believed in our numbers and didn’t want to be influenced by others at all.”

While several max $2,000 plays came in on many matchups, Andrews said most of the pros were firing $1,000 at a time.

“But a dime bet, putting their money up for as long as six months, I think that’s significant in a situation like this,” he said.

The post College Football Games Of The Year Odds Hit South Point’s Board appeared first on Props.

The NBA play-in tournament has been fun. But come Saturday, we get down to the serious business of series play. In fact, three games on the Saturday NBA playoffs odds board have been set since before the play-in tournament, so those matchups have been percolating all week.

And the fourth matchup, the No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies, was quickly set Tuesday night following Minnesota’s victory in the play-in tourney.

Props.com grabs insights from multiple oddsmakers on NBA playoffs odds for Saturday’s games. Check back for updates through tipoffs of each contest.

Saturday NBA Playoffs Odds and Betting Action

No. 6 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 3 Golden State Warriors (8:30 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Warriors opened as 4-point favorites at WynnBet but are up to -6.5 (-112), with stops at 5.5 and 6 along the way. Though 66% of bets are on the Nuggets, Golden State is taking 60% of money. The total opened at 224, then went to 223.5 and 223 before going back to the current 223.5. There is another divide here, with 62% of bets on the Over but 56% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Golden State (53-29 SU, 31-37-4 ATS) was a trendy preseason pick to win the NBA championship, on the expectation that oft-injured All-Star Klay Thompson would be back at some point this season. The standout guard finally returned Jan. 9, more than 2.5 years after an ACL tear in the 2019 NBA Finals, followed by an Achilles tear while working out in November 2020.

Superstar backcourt mate Stephen Curry (foot) has been out since March 16, but all signs point to Curry playing Game 1. The former two-time MVP was hurt in a home game against Boston after playing just 14 minutes. The Warriors went on to lose that game 110-88, which started a 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS slide. However, Golden State finished the regular season on a 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS surge, capped by Sunday’s 128-107 thrashing of New Orleans as a 6.5-point road chalk.

The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games, but just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite.

Denver will ride the shoulders of reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic, who is strongly favored to win this season’s MVP award, too. The Nuggets (48-34 SU, 36-45-1 ATS) were hit-and-miss in their final five games (2-3 SU and ATS). However, they did enough to dodge the No. 7 seed and the play-in tournament. In Sunday’s regular-season finale, Denver lost a shootout to the Los Angeles Lakers, 146-141 in overtime as a 6-point road favorite.

The Nuggets are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games, part of a broader 6-12 overall ATS slide. Denver is also 1-4 ATS in its last five as a postseason pup. That said, the Nuggs closed the regular season on a 5-0 ATS upswing as a road ‘dog and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 roadies overall.

Denver went 3-1 SU against Golden State during the regular season, and the teams split the cash, with the visitor covering all four times. But Golden State is 9-3 ATS in the last dozen meetings overall with Denver.

The Over is 9-4 in Denver’s last 13 outings and has hit in four of the Nuggets’ last five on the highway. On the flip side, Golden State sports Under upticks of 5-2 overall and 4-1 at home. Plus, the Under is 6-2 in the last eight Nuggets-Warriors battles (2-2 this season).

Golden State is out to a 6.5-point favorite at BetMGM, after opening -4.5. Early ticket count is 2/1-plus and early money 5/1 on the Warriors. The total reached its low point of 222.5 Friday morning after opening at 225.5 Monday. Ticket count on the total is almost even, but 90% of early dollars are backing the Under.[/accordion]

No. 5 Toronto Raptors vs No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers (6 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 4:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The 76ers opened as 4.5-point favorites at WynnBet, spent a few hours Monday at -4, then held at -4.5 the rest of the week. That’s despite 75% of bets and 86% of money flowing to Philadelphia. The total opened at 217.5 and has dropped to 216, with 74% of bets on the Over, but 77% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Philadelphia (51-31 SU, 37-43-2 ATS) finished with a mini-flurry, going 5-1 SU in its last six games. That included a 118-106 win over Detroit as a 6.5-point home chalk in Sunday’s finale. However, the 76ers haven’t been as solid lately for bettors, with the cover against the Pistons coming after a 1-7 ATS slide.

Philly is also 1-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 following a spread-cover. But Joel Embiid and Co. like their rest, cashing the last four when playing after a break of three or more days.

Toronto (48-34 SU, 47-35 ATS) worked its way up to No. 5 in the East by way of a late-season 8-1 SU surge (6-3 ATS). The Raptors then lost a meaningless regular-season finale at the Knicks, 105-94 as 1-point road favorites.

Even with that setback, Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine roadies, as well as 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 as a playoff pup. The Raptors also went 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS against the Sixers this season. Toronto, an underdog in all four contests, posted outright wins in both trips to Philly. The latest meeting was April 7, with Toronto nabbing a 119-114 victory as a 3.5-point home ‘dog.

The Over went 3-1 in those four Raptors-76ers matchups, and the Over hit in Philly’s last four regular-season games (5-1 run overall). Further, the Over is 5-0 in the Sixers’ last five at home. On the flip side, Toronto sports Under runs of 19-7 on the road and 9-3 in first-round playoff games.

The 76ers have been a stable 4.5-point chalk this week on BetMGM’s Saturday NBA playoffs odds board. Philadelphia is attracting 73% of bets and 71% of money on the spread. The total opened at 217.5 Monday and by Thursday afternoon dipped to 215.5, where it sits now. The Over is seeing 68% of bets, but 53% of cash is on the Under.[/accordion]

No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves vs No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (3:30 p.m. ET)

UPDATE 2:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Memphis hit TwinSpires’ Saturday NBA playoffs odds board as a 7-point favorite, and with tipoff looming, the line is -6.5. The Grizzlies are landing 69% of spread tickets, but just 53% of spread dollars. “Sharp play on Timberwolves +7,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total rose from 234.5 to 237.5, with 63% of tickets/73% of cash on the Over. “A mix of public and sharp play on the Over,” Lucas said.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Memphis has been an on-court surprise, finishing with the NBA’s second-best SU record at 56-26. The Grizzlies also have been a boon for bettors this season with an NBA-best 52-29-1 ATS mark, a 64.2 percent spread-covering clip. With its playoff position secure, Memphis rested a bit in the final week, going 1-3 SU (1-2-1 ATS). But prior to that, the Grizzlies posted a seven-game winning streak (6-0 ATS) — all without All-Star guard Ja Morant.

Morant (right knee injury) missed nine consecutive games from March 20-Arpil 7 before returning for Saturday’s home game against New Orleans, tallying 21 points, four rebounds and nine assists. He was among several starters who rested in Sunday’s finale, when the Grizzlies got rolled 139-110 as 9-point home underdogs to Boston. Still, Memphis is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games, and the Grizzlies are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 laying points.

Minnesota (47-36 SU, 42-38-2 ATS) had to win a play-in game to secure a spot in the NBA playoffs for just the second time in 18 seasons. On Tuesday, the Timberwolves fended off the ninth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers 109-104 as a 3-point favorite. Prior to that, the TWolves had failed to cover in four straight games, part of a 2-8 ATS overall nosedive.

Minnesota is in further ATS ruts of 1-4 on the highway and 4-9 catching points.

These teams split their four games SU and ATS this season, with the home team winning and cashing each time. The most recent clash was Feb. 24, a 119-114 TWolves win and cover as a 2-point home underdog. But Memphis has owned this rivalry the past three seasons, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS.

The Over is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six outings, with the lone Under coming in Tuesday’s play-in win over the Clippers (total 231.5). Memphis is 4-1 to the Over in its last five games, though that was preceded by a 6-1 Under run. In addition, the last two TWolves-Grizzlies meetings stayed Under after a 5-1 Over stretch.

BetMGM opened Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite in the Saturday NBA playoffs odds market. The Grizzlies advanced to -7 Thursday morning, then returned to -6.5 this afternoon. Early ticket count is 4/1 and early money 6/1 on Memphis. The total opened at 234.5, dipped to 233.5 late Thursday morning, then climbed back to 234.5 late Thursday afternoon. Tickets and money are in the 3/1 range on the Under.[/accordion]

No. 5 Utah Jazz at No. 4 Dallas Mavericks (1 p.m. ET)

UPDATE NOON ET SATURDAY: An hour before tipoff, Utah is -5.5 on DraftKings’ Saturday NBA playoffs odds market, ticking down from -6 midmorning. The Jazz opened -1.5 Monday and quickly stretched to -4 on news that the Mavs likely wouldn’t have Luka Doncic (calf) for Game 1. The line receded to -3 early Tuesday, but by Tuesday afternoon was out to Jazz -4.5, then got to -5 Thursday and 5.5 this morning, when Doncic was formally ruled out.

Utah is taking 58% of spread bets, but that’s translating into 80% of spread dollars. The total opened at 216.5 and steadily declined throughout the week, reaching its low of 208.5 midmorning today. Ticket count is actually 5/1-plus on the Over, and money is just shy of 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Utah (49-33 SU, 33-45-4 ATS) won the Northwest Division, while Dallas was second in the Southwest Division. But the Mavs (52-30 SU, 46-35-1 ATS) nabbed the higher seed by way of their better record. But Dallas is expected to be shorthanded Saturday — and in a big way — as star guard Luka Doncic is unlikely to play due to a calf injury.

Dallas finished the regular season with a 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS surge, winning their last four games (3-1 ATS). Among those four wins was an impressive 118-112 victory catching 6.5 points at Milwaukee on April 3. The Mavs capped the regular season with a 130-120 victory over San Antonio, narrowly failing to cash as 10.5-point home favorites.

A late-season 1-5 SU slide (0-6 ATS) kept Utah from improving its postseason position, but the Jazz went 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in their last four outings. Utah finished by blasting Portland 111-80 as a 17-point road chalk.

These teams split four regular-season meetings, with the home team winning each time. But Dallas cashed in all four contests, including a 114-100 win giving 4 points March 27.

The Over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven games, which runs counter to its season as a whole. The Mavs were the NBA’s top Under team, at 50-31-1 during the regular season. Further, the Under is 5-2 in the last seven Jazz-Mavs meetings, with the last two contests — both in Dallas — staying low.

Due to Doncic’s status, Utah moved from a -1.5 opener to -4.5 by Tuesday, then advanced to -5.5 Thursday in BetMGM’s Saturday NBA playoffs odds market. The Jazz are taking a modest majority 56% of spread bets, but that’s translating into 71% of spread money. The total opened at 216.5, crashed to 208.5 by Thursday and is now 209.5 (Under -115). Early ticket count is dead even, but 88% of early cash is on the Under.[/accordion]

The post Saturday NBA Playoffs Odds: Money Tilts to Warriors appeared first on Props.

March Madness now goes to the first Monday of April, and we all know what that means: College basketball championship game odds are on the board.

While coach Mike Krzyzewski won’t get to end his 42-year Duke career with one more shining moment, it still should be a tremendous title tilt. A pair of bluebloods square off when No. 1 seed Kansas meets No. 8 seed North Carolina at the Superdome.

Props.com breaks down the massive matchup, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on NCAA championship game odds and action. Check back for updates through Monday night’s tipoff.

https://youtu.be/aAedstO5Dhs

College Basketball Championship Game Odds

Odds via FanDuel and updated as of 7:30 p.m. ET on April 4.

No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 1 Kansas

UPDATE 7;30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Less than two hours pre-tip, TwinSpires Sportsbook has Kansas a steady 4-point favorite, where the Jayhawks opened late Saturday night. North Carolina is seeing the modest majority of tickets and money, at 59% and 57%, respectively. Further, the Tar Heels are taking the bulk of moneyline action, at 56% of tickets/62% of cash. Carolina is currently +160 on the moneyline, while Kansas is a -205 chalk.

“The public is siding with the Tar Heels. We’ll need Kansas in this one,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. “Kansas is also the better result in the futures market.”

The total dropped from the 153 opener to 151.5, but in the past half-hour inched up to 152. The Under is taking 53% of tickets and 61% of cash.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Four-plus hours before game time, Kansas sits at -4 (-115) on FanDuel’s college basketball championship game odds board. The Jayhawks opened at 4 flat late Saturday night, rose to -4.5 within a half-hour, dipped to -4 (-115) Sunday afternoon and hasn’t moved since. Kansas is drawing 59% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars. Moneyline opinion is split, with North Carolina (currently +158) seeing 69% of tickets, while 55% of cash is on Kansas (currently -192).

The total opened at 152.5, ticked up to 153 within a few minutes and reached 153.5 within an hour. Late Sunday morning, the number returned to 152.5 and by this morning bottomed out at 151.5 (Over -115), where it sits now. Contrary to the drop, tickets and money are running 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: On Saturday night, DraftKings pegged Kansas a 4-point favorite in the college basketball championship game odds market. Sunday morning, the number nudged to -4.5, but returned to -4 less than two hours later. The Jayhawks are seeing 62% of spread tickets and 56% of spread dollars. The total opened at 152, quickly popped up to 153, returned to 152 late Sunday morning and in the past hour dipped to 151.5. Still, tickets and money are in the 3/1 range on the Over.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SUNDAY: With tipoff 24 hours away, Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite at WynnBet, matching the opening line after spending a few hours early today at -5. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 6/1 on underdog North Carolina. The Tar Heels are also seeing the bulk of moneyline play, at 60% of tickets/82% of cash.

Regardless, the book is in a good position to both teams, even with some North Carolina championship futures bets at long odds pre-Tournament and earlier in the Tourney.

“We are just glad Gonzaga is not playing in this game,” WynnBet junior trader Andy Morrissey said. “We win pretty big to Kansas and to North Carolina, as well. They’ve been betting Carolina since the beginning of the Tournament.”

That said, it’s mostly small stuff at +7,500 or less, with the most noteworthy bet being $100 at 75/1, to win $7,500.

The total opened at 153 and inched down to 152.5 late this morning, although tickets are 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M ET SATURDAY: After spoiling Coach K’s storybook ending, North Carolina now hopes its surprising run to the NCAA championship game ends with a net-cutting ceremony Monday night. Regardless, with Kansas as the other participant, it’ll be a high-profile contest sure to draw a ton of action.

“It should be a well-bet game. The downside is that it’s only on the board for 46 hours,” SuperBook risk manager Neil Fitzroy said.

In a riveting Final Four battle Saturday night, the Tar Heels fended off No. 2 seed Duke 81-77 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Tar Heels are 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, including a pair of outright wins as an underdog against Duke.

Carolina stunned its archrival 94-81 catching 11 points at Duke in the March 5 regular-season finale. Saturday’s rematch was tight throughout, but the Tar Heels made their free throws late to land the victory.

North Carolina has cashed in all five of its Tournament games and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 outings. The Tar Heels’ only on-court blemish since mid-February was a 72-59 loss to Virginia Tech as a 3-point favorite in the ACC tournament semifinals March 11. UNC also is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run as an underdog, which they will in the championship game.

Kansas was the only No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four and parlayed that into a spot in Monday night’s final. The Jayhawks (33-6, 20-18-1 ATS) got out quickly against No. 2 seed Villanova in Saturday’s first semifinal, building a 19-point first-half advantage and leading 40-29 at halftime.

The Wildcats got as close as six at 64-58 with about five minutes remaining, but the Jayhawks pulled away from there, cruising to an 81-65 victory as a 4-point favorite.

Kansas is riding a 10-game winning streak and is 7-2 ATS in its last nine outings, all as a favorite (2-0 ATS last two). Kansas is also 11-1 SU in neutral-site games this season. And although Bill Self’s troops are just 7-5 ATS in those dozen games, they’re on a 6-2 ATS neutral-court run this postseason.

The Kansas-Villanova game easily cleared the 133.5 total, ending a modest 3-1 Under stretch for the Jayhawks. North Carolina-Duke surpassed the 154 total, after the Tar Heels played to Unders in wins over St. Peter’s and UCLA in the Elite Eight and Sweet 16, respectively. The Over is 12-6 in Carolina’s last 18 games overall and 5-2 in its last seven NCAA Tourney contests.

Kansas opened as a 4.5-point favorite tonight in The SuperBook’s college basketball championship game odds market. The first move came literally within minutes, as early money on Carolina pushed the line down to Kansas -4.

“It was all UNC at +4.5,” Fitzroy said, while noting championship futures are the more notable concern at the moment. “We will be rooting for Kansas in the futures. It’s a significant swing for us if North Carolina pulls it out.”

The total opened at 153 and saw no movement this evening, with Fitzroy noting “not much action on the total.”[/accordion]

Strong Championship Pedigree

Kansas is 3-6 is in NCAA championship games, including losing its last title-game appearance to Kentucky in 2012 (67-59 as a 6-point ‘dog). The Jayhawks last cut down the nets in 2008, when they defeated Memphis 75-68 in overtime as a 2-point pup.

North Carolina will be making its 12th championship game appearance. The Tar Heels are 6-5 all time, most recently defeating Gonzaga 71-65 as a 1-point favorite in 2017, one year after falling to Villanova 77-74 as a 2-point chalk in the title game.

UNC has the third-most titles, trailing only UCLA (11) and Kentucky (8). Kansas ranks seventh in the championship standings, tied with Villanova.

The Tar Heels and Jayhawks haven’t faced one another since squaring off in the 2012 and 2013 NCAA Tournaments. Kansas won both games by double digits, rolling 80-67 as a 2-point chalk in the Elite Eight in 2012 and 70-58 as a 6.5-point favorite in the second round in 2013. The Jayhawks also whipped Carolina 84-66 as a 2-point underdog in the 2008 Final Four, on the way to their last title.

The post College Basketball Championship Game Odds: North Carolina vs Kansas appeared first on Props.

March Madness betting has dwindled down to a quartet of teams, with NCAA Final Four odds now on the board. And this is quite familiar territory for all four schools.

In Saturday’s opening semifinal, No. 2 seed Villanova meets Kansas, the sole No. 1 seed to reach New Orleans. Then, in a Tobacco Road battle for the ages, No. 8 seed North Carolina meets No. 2 seed Duke, which is trying to send Mike Krzyzewski into retirement on the highest possible note.

Props.com breaks down each matchup, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on March Madness Final Four odds and action. Check back for updates through Saturday’s tipoffs.

https://youtu.be/U0wQkB5X8m0

NCAA Final Four Odds

Odds via BetMGM and updated as of 4:45 p.m. ET on April 2.

No. 2 Villanova vs No. 1 Kansas

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Just more than an hour before tipoff, Kansas is laying 4.5 points at TwinSpires Sportsbook, up a point from the -3.5 opener. Point-spread ticket count is 3/1 and money approaching 5/1 Jayhawks. “It’s been all Kansas money. That’s our biggest liability today,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total went from 132.5 to 133 and back to 132.5, with 54% of tickets on the Under/57% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Several hours before today’s tipoff, Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM. With a couple of price variations, that’s where the number has been almost all week, after opening at Jayhawks -3.5. Kansas is getting 58% of spread tickets and 64% of spread money. The total opened at 131.5, quickly went to 132.5, dipped to 131.5 (Over -120) a couple of times this morning and is now 132.5 (Over -115). The Over is netting 57% of tickets/71% of money.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sportsbook opened Kansas a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday evening and quickly went to -4, then moved to -4.5 Monday morning. The line returned to Jayhawks -4 Wednesday evening, then to -4.5 late Thursday afternoon. At lunchtime today, Kansas again nudged down to -4, where the number sits now. Point-spread ticket count is just shy of 2/1 Jayhawks, while spread money is just beyond 2/1 Wildcats.

Interestingly, at the moment, overall handle on Villanova-Kansas is more than double that of the Carolina-Duke nightcap. Aiding that gap is a $260,000 alternate-spread bet on Villanova +6 (-130),

“We’ve taken some big bets on the Villanova-Kansas game,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “I think Duke-North Carolina will end up having the bigger handle, since it’s also the late game. It just hasn’t gotten those big bets yet like Villanova-Kansas has. The money at [the current spread of] 4 has predominantly been on Kansas.

“Obviously, the next 24 hours or so is when the bulk of the action will come in. I think [the line] has a better chance of going back up than going down further, because of the [Justin] Moore injury, and just with how good Kansas looked last game. That Miami game is definitely still in people’s minds.”

As Pullen alluded to, Villanova is minus Moore, who tore an Achilles tendon in the South Region final win over Houston. And Kansas outscored Miami 47-15 in the second half of the Midwest Region final, en route to a 76-50 rout.

The total is out to 134 from a 132 opener, with tickets about 2/1 on the Under, but money 4/1 on the Over. That includes a $220,000 bet on Over 133.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With 48 hours to go before tipoff, Kansas is laying 4.5 points in DraftKing’s NCAA Final Four odds market. The Jayhawks opened -3.5 early Sunday evening, quickly moved to -4, advanced to -4.5 Monday morning, then briefly fell back to -4 Wednesday morning before returning to -4.5. Ticket count is 2/1 on Kansas, but money is almost dead even, with a slight nod to Villanova. However, on the moneyline, it’s 2/1 tickets and cash on the favored Jayhawks (-195).

The total rose from 132 to 133 by Wednesday afternoon, with the Over nabbing 55% of early tickets/81% of early cash.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: PointsBet USA pegged Kansas a 4-point chalk in its NCAA Final Four odds market, then briefly dipped to -3.5 before returning to -4 early Sunday evening. There’s now more of a tax on the Jayhawks, who are -4 (-125), with early ticket count running 3/1-plus and early money 9/1 on the favorite. The total opened at 133 flat, shuffled to various iterations of that number and is now 133 (Under -115), with tickets and money in the 2.5/1 range on the Under.

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas ended a modest two-game ATS skid by putting together a dominant second half in Sunday’s Midwest Region final against No. 10 seed Miami. The Jayhawks (32-6 SU, 19-18-1 ATS) trailed 35-29 at the break. Bill Self’s squad then body-slammed Miami with a 47-15 second half to win going away, 76-50 as a 5.5-point favorite.

The Jayhawks are riding a nine-game winning streak and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight outings. Kansas is also 10-1 SU in neutral-site games this season, though it’s a middling 6-5 ATS in those 11 contests.

Villanova (30-7 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) has been a solid Big Dance bet, going 4-0 SU and ATS to reach the Final Four. In Saturday’s South Region final, the Wildcats stuffed No. 5 seed Houston in a defensive grind of a game, winning 50-44 as a 3-point underdog.

Like Kansas, Jay Wright’s troops have won nine in a row (6-3 ATS). Villanova is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 NCAA Tourney tilts. The Wildcats are shooting for their third national title in seven years, having also won the 2016 and 2018 championships.

“From a futures perspective, we are rooting for Nova or Kansas to win it all,” SuperBook risk manager Neil Fitzroy said this evening. “Either of those teams would be an excellent result for us. We’re looking forward to what is hopefully an exciting final weekend of March Madness.”

Jay Wright became Villanova coach in 2001 and Bill Self the Kansas coach in 2003. These two have since met six times — three times in the regular season, and three in the NCAA Tourney. Wright’s squad has had its way, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, after Kansas won and covered in a 2008 Sweet 16 contest.

In fact, these two teams met in the 2018 Final Four, with ‘Nova rolling 95-79 as a 5-point fave.

Villanova’s win against Houston fell miles short of the 126.5 total, moving the Under to 6-1 this postseason for the Wildcats. Further, ‘Nova is 8-2 to the Under at neutral sites this season. The Under is also 3-1 in Kansas’ last four outings, with the rout of Miami never threatening the 146 total.

Including Villanova-Houston and Kansas-Miami, 11 of 12 games in the Sweet 16/Elite Eight stayed Under the total. And first-half Unders were 11-1 in those two rounds, as well.

Late this afternoon, The SuperBook opened Kansas as a 4-point favorite against Villanova, with a total of 131.5 on the NCAA Final Four odds board. The line quickly dipped to Kansas -3.5, while the total rose to 133. Early this evening, the Jayhawks returned to -4.[/accordion]

No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 2 Duke

UPDATE 7:15 P.M. ET: About 90 minutes pre-tip, Duke sits as a 4-point favorite at TwinSpires, matching the opener, and the Duke Blue Devils spent time this past week at -4.5. Opinion is definitely split, with 56% of spread tickets on North Carolina and 55% of spread cash on Duke.

“Great two-way action,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. “Duke is our biggest futures liability, so we’ll be rooting for UNC.”

The total rose from 151.5 to 153, with 66% of tickets/72% of money on the Over.

“It’s a mix of public and sharp play on the Over,” Lucas said.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Duke hasn’t moved off -4.5 all week in BetMGM’s NCAA Final Four odds market, save for a price adjustment to -105 Monday morning. The Blue Devils remain -4.5 (-105) this morning, while the Tar Heels are garnering 60% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. The total was painted to 151.5 all week before advancing to 152.5 in the past hour, though current betting splits weren’t available.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET FRIDAY: On Sunday evening, Caesars opened Duke -4.5, quickly dipped to -4, then returned to -4.5 in the NCAA Final Four odds market. The line receded to Blue Devils -4 on Monday morning and remains there now, with 53% of spread bets on Duke and 58% of spread dollars on North Carolina.

“This game just has incredible storylines,” Caesars Sports assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “You have the Coach K factor, then two rivals who have never played in the NCAA Tournament before, let alone a Final Four. When they played first [this season] at Carolina and Duke handled them pretty easily, that was a different Carolina team. That Carolina team that won at Cameron [on March 5] is more indicative of their true self.

“But Duke is also playing really good basketball of late. Hopefully this game lives up to the hype. The hype on this one has more than any other Final Four game in recent memory.”

With the exception of a few minutes Sunday night at 150.5, the total has been steady at 151. The Over is drawing 54% of bets, while 69% of cash is on the Under.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Duke is a 4-point favorite on DraftKings’ NCAA Final Four odds board, moving and sticking at that number Monday morning, after opening -4.5 Sunday. It’s two-way point-spread action with a lean toward the Blue Devils, at 54% of early tickets and 55% of early money. And there’s a segment of bettors eschewing the spread and favoring Duke on the moneyline instead, with just shy of 2/1 tickets and cash on the Blue Devils (-190) to simply win the game.

The total is up a tick from 150.5 to 151, also on two-way play, with 56% of bets on the Under/55% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Duke hasn’t moved off -4.5 yet at PointsBet USA, though the price for that number has adjusted a few times. The Blue Devils are currently -4.5 (even), with the Tar Heels netting 54% of early bets, translating into 80% of early cash. The total opened at 151 and is now 151 (Under -120), with 56% of bets on the Under/64% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s victory tour now heads to the Big Easy, where the Big Difficult awaits in the form of hard-charging archrival North Carolina.

The Tar Heels (28-9 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) put a blunt end to the Cinderella run of March Madness No. 15 seed St. Peter’s on Sunday. North Carolina bolted to a 38-19 halftime lead and coasted to a 69-49 victory giving 8.5 points in the East Region final.

Such was the rout that The SuperBook — among other outlets — wasted no time getting a Carolina-Duke Final Four matchup on the board, posting the odds before halftime of St. Peter’s-Carolina. The Blue Devils opened -4, with a total of 149.5. The total was the first mover, with early Over cash quickly pushing the number to 150.5, then to 151. This evening, Duke action moved the Blue Devils to -4.5.

“We’re getting four huge brand names among the college hoops landscape for this Final Four,” The SuperBook’s Fitzroy said. “We expect our handle to be incredible, especially for the Duke-North Carolina semifinal. It’s wild how we’ve never seen the Tobacco Road rivalry in NCAA Tourney play.”

The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Among those 10 wins: A 94-81 shocker as an 11-point underdog at Duke on March 5 in the regular-season finale, which doubled as Krzyzewski’s final home game. That followed Duke’s 87-67 blowout victory over the Heels in Chapel Hill on Feb. 5.

Carolina has cashed in all four its Tournament games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight outings. The Tar Heels are also on a 4-0 ATS upswing as an underdog.

Meanwhile, Duke (32-6 SU, 20-16-2 ATS) found a place on the NCAA Final Four odds board by winning the West Region. In Saturday’s regional final against No. 4 seed Arkansas — which took out No. 1 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 — the Blue Devils built a 12-point halftime lead en route to a 78-69 victory laying 4.5 points

Duke has cashed in its last three games, after an 0-5 ATS skid overall and an 0-6 ATS purge in NCAA Tournament play. In the last 10 clashes between these ACC rivals, North Carolina is 6-4 SU and a robust 8-2 ATS (3-1 SU/ATS last four).

The SuperBook already has a rooting interest, thanks to Duke being the worst remaining outcome for the book in the championship futures market.

“We are rooting against Duke,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said.

Duke’s win vs. Arkansas fell just shy of the 148 total, but the Over is still 8-2 in the Blue Devils’ last 10 overall. Further, the Over is 7-2 in Duke’s last nine on neutral floors. North Carolina’s lockdown win over St. Peter’s fell far short of the 138.5 total. However, the Over is 11-6 in the Tar Heels’ previous 17 games overall and 4-2 in NCAA Tournament play.

In addition, the last six Carolina-Duke contests have surpassed the total. However, as noted above, the Under went 11-1 in the Sweet 16/Elite Eight rounds, as did the first-half Under.[/accordion]

The post NCAA Final Four Odds: Villanova Vs Kansas, Duke Vs North Carolina appeared first on Props.

It’s on to Day 2 in the Round of 32, and the Sunday NCAA Tournament odds board features a matchup of college basketball coaching greats. Mike Krzyzewski, calling it a career after 42 seasons at Duke, meets Tom Izzo and Michigan State.

Arizona is the only No. 1 seed in action, taking on No. 9 seed Texas Christian in the West Region.

Props.com breaks down the second day of second-round games, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on Sunday March Madness odds and action. Check back for updates through tipoff of these contests.

Sunday NCAA Tournament Odds

Odds via BetMGM and updated as of 10:45 a.m. ET on March 20.

NCAA East Region Odds and Action

No. 6 Texas vs No. 3 Purdue

Game information: 8:40 p.m. ET at Milwaukee (TNT)

UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Purdue opened as a 3.5-point favorite at TwinSpires sportsbook and has gone down to 3, despite 72% of tickets and 56% of money on the Boilermakers. Perhaps that’s due in part to the Big 12’s domination so far in the Tournament (five of six teams still alive, including Texas) and the Big Ten’s struggles (seven of nine teams already eliminated, with Michigan being the lone member to punch a Sweet 16 ticket).

“Sharp play on Texas +3.5,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports, said.

The total opened at 133.5 and is up to 135, with 74% of tickets and 78% of money the Over, which Lucas called a mix of public and sharp play.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Texas and Purdue had little trouble winning and covering in their first-round games Friday to set up a Big 12/Big Ten clash.

Trailing No. 11 seed Virginia Tech by a point in the waning seconds of the first half, Longhorns guard Marcus Carr banked in a 55-foot heave at the buzzer to give his team a 34-32 halftime lead. Texas (22-11 SU, 13-20 ATS) took that momentum and ran with it in the second half, posting an 81-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite.

The win snapped the Longhorns’ three-game losing skid overall and three-game slide in NCAA Tournament play. It was Texas’ first March Madness triumph since 2015.

Purdue (28-7, 14-19-2 ATS) notched its first Tourney victory since the 2019 Sweet 16, routing Ivy League champ and 14th-seeded Yale 78-56 as a 16.5-point chalk. It was the first time the Boilermakers held an opponent under 60 points since a 79-59 victory over Incarnate Word on Dec. 20.

Both these squads halted lengthy ATS slumps Friday. The Longhorns failed to cover in seven straight games, while Purdue was 0-8-2 ATS in its previous 10. Texas also snapped an 0-10 ATS drought in Tournament action.

Additionally, the Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog, while the Boilermakers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 when laying points.

Both also topped the total in the opening round, pushing the Over to 12-4 in Texas’ last 16 Tournament games and 4-1 in Purdue’s last five in this event. That said, the Boilermakers were on a 6-0 Under roll prior to Friday.

BetMGM pegged Purdue a 3.5-point favorite at the outset, and the line remains there this morning. The Boilermakers are getting a slim majority 53% of spread bets, but 67% of spread money is on the underdog Longhorns. The total is up a point to 134.5, with early ticket count 5/1 and early money 9/1 on the Over.[/accordion]

NCAA Midwest Region Odds and Action

No. 10 Miami vs No. 2 Auburn

Game information: 7:45 p.m. ET at Greenville, S.C. (TruTV)

UPDATE 6:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Auburn opened as a 7-point favorite at TwinSpires sportsbook and has stayed there, with 59% of tickets and 53% of money on Miami.

“Public leaning toward Miami,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports, said. “Not a big decision for us.”

The total has moved up from 143.5 to 145, with 64% of tickets and 71% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Two days after hanging on for its first NCAA Tournament win in six years, Miami will try to make it two in a row when it faces the region’s No. 2 seed.

The Hurricanes (24-10, 19-14-1 ATS) survived a final-shot scare against No. 7 seed USC in Friday’s opening round, escaping with a 68-66 victory as a 2-point underdog. Miami has won four of its last five SU and ATS. The lone blemish: an 80-76 defeat to Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals.

Auburn easily ousted 15th-seeded Jacksonville State, cruising 80-61 as a 14-point chalk for its first Tournament win since losing in the 2019 Final Four. The Tigers spent several weeks ranked No. 1 this season, thanks to a 19-game winning streak that stretched from Nov. 25-Feb. 5. However, they’re just 6-4 SU since, and they’ve followed a 13-2 ATS run by going 3-8 ATS in their last 11.

Miami is still just 2-6 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games, but is otherwise on positive spread-covering runs of 23-8-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a neutral-site ’dog, and 4-1 as a pup in the Tournament.

Auburn has cashed in five straight March Madness outings, but is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a favorite this season.

Both teams stayed Under the total in their first-round games. That said, the Over is 6-2 in Miami’s last eight overall, 11-4 in Miami’s last 15 Tourney games, and 5-1 in Auburn’s last six in the Big Dance.

The Tigers were installed as a 7-point favorite, but have since ticked up to -7.5. The total is 144.5, up a point from the 143.5 send-out.

Auburn is a stable 7.5-point chalk at BetMGM, where underdog Miami is netting 57% of early spread bets and 64% of early spread dollars. The total moved from 143.5 to 144.5, then back to 143.5, with 54% of bets/84% of money on the Under.[/accordion]

No. 11 Iowa State vs No. 3 Wisconsin

Game information: 6:10 p.m. ET at Milwaukee (TNT)

UPDATE 4:20 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Wisconsin opened as a 3-point favorite at TwinSpires sportsbook, went all the way to 5, then has come back to 4, with 63% of the tickets and 70% of the money on Wisconsin.

“Mix of public/sharp money on Wisconsin,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports, said. “We’ll need Iowa State.”

The total opened at 125.5 and has gone to 126, with 56% of tickets on the Under but 57% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Two grind-it-out teams will fight for a Sweet 16 berth in Milwaukee.

Wisconsin (25-7 SU, 17-15 ATS) battled to a 67-60 victory over No. 14 seed Colgate on Friday, but the Badgers fell a hair short of cashing as 7.5-point favorites.

Wisconsin ended a two-game losing streak but failed to cover for the third straight game after going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in its five previous games . The Badgers shared the Big Ten regular-season title with Illinois but were upset by Michigan State in their first game at the conference tournament.

Wisconsin is seeking its first Sweet 16 since 2017.

Iowa State (21-12 SU, 18-15 ATS) continued its remarkable turnaround from a 2-22 season a year ago, knocking off No. 6 seed LSU 59-54 on Friday as a 3-point underdog. The Cyclones earned their first NCAA Tournament victory since 2017 and are gunning for their first Sweet 16 trip since 2016.

Friday’s win snapped Iowa State’s three-game skid (1-2 ATS), including an embarrassing 72-41 loss to Texas Tech at the Big 12 tournament.

Both Wisconsin’s and Iowa State’s first-round games stayed Under. The Under is now 4-1 in the Badgers’ past five games. The Cyclones’ past two games have stayed low after four of their previous five went Over.

Wisconsin is up a point to -4.5 at BetMGM, where ticket count is 2/1 and money approaching 3/1 on the Badgers. The total rose from 124.5 to 125.5, with ticket count 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.[/accordion]

NCAA West Region Odds and Action

No. 11 Notre Dame vs No. 3 Texas Tech

Game information: 7:10 p.m. ET at San Diego (TBS)

UPDATE 6:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Texas Tech opened as a 7-point favorite at TwinSpires sportsbook, then went to 7.5 and now 8. Though Notre Dame is on 55% of tickets, Texas Tech is getting 63% of the money.

“Sharp play on Texas Tech -7,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports, said.

The total opened at 133 and is down to 132.5, with 60% of tickets and 64% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Two teams coming off double-digit first-round victories — one expected, one not — duke it out in America’s Finest City with a Sweet 16 bid on the line.

After surviving Wednesday’s First Four double-overtime thriller against Rutgers in Dayton, Ohio, Notre Dame (24-10 SU, 18-15 ATS) traveled to San Diego and took out No. 6 seed Alabama 78-64 as a 4-point underdog. The Irish, back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2017, haven’t made it out of the first weekend since losing back-to-back regional finals in 2015 and 2016.

Texas Tech, which normally leans on its defense, exploded for a season-high point total in a 97-62 thrashing of 14th-seeded Montana State, easily cashing as a hefty 14.5-point chalk. Even with the blowout, the Red Raiders (26-9 SU, 22-13 ATS) are still just 4-3 SU/2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.

Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, but 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at neutral venues.

Texas Tech — which lost in the second round last year after reaching the national championship game and Elite Eight in consecutive seasons in 2018 and 2019 — is now 7-2 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament contests.

The Irish were on an 8-0-1 Over tear before Friday’s game against Alabama stayed low (pushing the Under to 18-7-1 in their last 26 March Madness games). The Under also is 7-3 both in the Red Raiders’ last 10 neutral-site games and last 10 NCAA Tourney outings.

Texas Tech landed on BetMGM’s Sunday NCAA Tournament odds board as a 7.5-point chalk, and the line hasn’t moved yet. The Red Raiders are seeing 60% of spread tickets and 59% of spread cash. The total of 132.5 is also stable, with 57% of bets on the Over, but 73% of cash on the Under.[/accordion]

No. 7 Michigan State vs No. 2 Duke

Game information: 5:15 p.m. ET at Greenville, S.C. (CBS)

UPDATE 4:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Duke opened as a 6.5-point favorite at TwinSpires sportsbook, and the line has stayed there, with 53% of tickets on Michigan State and 55% of money on Duke.

“Great two-way action here,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports, said. “Parlay liability tied to Duke (money line).”

The total opened at 145 and has gone to 145.5 with 59% of tickets and 56% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Duke had little trouble Friday with No. 15 seed Cal State Fullerton, rolling to a 78-61 victory, but falling just short of cashing as an 18.5-point chalk. The Blue Devils (29-6 SU, 17-16-2 ATS) have failed to cover in five straight games and are 3-8 ATS in their last 11. Further, Duke is in an 0-6 ATS rut in NCAA Tournament play.

Meanwhile, Michigan State hung on Friday against No. 10 seed Davidson to set up the Krzyzewski vs. Izzo matchup. The Spartans (23-12 SU, 19-15-1 ATS) notched a 74-73 victory as 1.5-point underdogs Friday. That stretched Michigan State’s ATS win streak to five games, following a 2-8 ATS purge. The Spartans are on a 5-0 ATS run on neutral courts, as well.

These college basketball bluebloods have met regularly over the past decade, including in the NCAA Tournament. The most recent clash was last season at Duke, and Michigan State pulled out a 75-69 victory as a four-point underdog. In fact, the ‘dog 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in the last five series battles dating to November 2016.

The last three Tournament meetings have come in the Elite Eight or Final Four. Duke won and covered the first two (2013, 2015), while the Spartans won and covered the most recent (2019).

Duke’s 6-0 Over spree ended against Fullerton (total 146), but the Over is still 11-3 in the Blue Devils’ last 14 games overall and 5-1 in their last six neutral-site contests. The Over is 6-1 in Michigan State’s last seven, with Friday’s tilt against Davidson topping the 139.5-point total.

Duke opened and remains a 6.5-point favorite at BetMGM, where it’s nearly dead-even two-way action. The Blue Devils are netting 52% of spread tickets and 53% of spread money. The total opened at 144.5 and stuck there Saturday, but it’s up 2 points this morning to 146.5, with 70% of tickets/87% of cash on the Over.[/accordion]

NCAA South Region Odds and Action

No. 9 TCU vs No. 1 Arizona

Game information: 9:40 p.m. ET at San Diego (TBS)

UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Arizona opened as a 9.5-point favorite at TwinSpires sportsbook and stayed there, with 57% of tickets and 64% of money on the Wildcats.

The total opened at 143.5 and is up to 145.5, with 56% of tickets and 78% of money on the Over.

“Sharp play on the Over,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports, said.

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Arizona ended a mini-NCAA Tournament drought Friday, but that was nothing compared to TCU.

Arizona (32-3 SU, 20-14-1 ATS) earned its first Tournament victory since 2018, but the Wildcats did not cover as 21.5-point favorites in an 87-70 victory over No. 16 seed Wright State.

Arizona, the Pac-12 regular-season and tournament champion, is seeking its first Sweet 16 since reaching back-to-back Elite Eights in 2014 and 2015.

The Wildcats have won seven straight (4-3 ATS).

TCU (21-12 SU, 19-11-3 ATS) earned its first NCAA Tournament victory since 1987, crushing No. 8 seed Seton Hall 69-42 as a 1.5-point underdog. The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their past nine (5-4 SU).

TCU’s victory completed a 6-0 SU and ATS sweep for the Big 12 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The average margin of victory for Big 12 teams was 23 points, including four double-digit blowouts of 27 or more.

The Horned Frogs are seeking their first Sweet 16 since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Arizona’s game Friday stayed Under, snapping a six-game Over streak. The Wildcats are 20-15 to the Over this season. The Under has cashed in six straight TCU games.

The Wildcats opened and remain a 9.5-point favorite in BetMGM’s Sunday NCAA Tournament odds market. Arizona is collecting 60% of early spread bets and 70% of early spread dollars. The total is out to 145.5 from a 143.5 opener, with tickets 2/1-plus and money almost 4/1 on the Over.[/accordion]

No. 5 Houston vs No. 4 Illinois

Game information: 12:10 p.m. ET at Pittsburgh (CBS)

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: BetMGM dropped Houston a point today, from the -4.5 opener to -3.5. Point-spread betting is two-way with a very slight lean toward underdog Illinois, at 51% of tickets and 52% of money. The total bounced from 133.5 to 134.5 and back, with 70% of bets/78% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Illinois barely survived its first-round game Friday, and now the Illini are underdogs to lower-seeded (but more-well-regarded) Houston.

Illinois (23-9 SU, 13-19 ATS) led for less than a minute of game time, but the Big Ten regular-season co-champions survived a last-second shot to beat No. 13 seed Chattanooga 54-53.

The Illini never came close to covering as 7.5-point favorites, and they have now failed to beat the number in five of their past six games (despite going 4-2 SU). The ATS drought includes a 65-63 loss to Indiana in their first Big Ten tournament game.

Illinois is seeking its first Sweet 16 since losing in the national championship game in 2005.

Houston (30-5, 23-12 ATS) remains a covering machine, holding off No. 12 seed UAB 82-68 as an 8.5-point favorite Friday. The Cougars, the American Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament champions, have won and covered in four straight and eight of nine overall.

Houston is arguably the most underseeded team in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars are third in the highly respected KenPom rankings. The only teams above them are the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAAs.

Houston is seeking a second straight trip to the Final Four after losing to eventual national champion Baylor in last year’s semifinals.

Illinois is now 21-6-1 to the Under in its past 28 NCAA Tournament games after Friday’s low-scoring slugfest. Also, four straight Illini games overall have stayed Under. The Under is 5-2-1 in the past eight for Houston.

Houston opened and remains a 4.5-point chalk tonight at WynnBet, and it’s two-way action on the point spread. The Cougars are taking 54% of tickets and 57% of money. The total is stable at 133.5, with a ticket count of 4/1 and money running 2/1 on the Over.[/accordion]

No. 7 Ohio State vs No. 2 Villanova

Game information: 2:40 p.m. ET at Pittsburgh (CBS)

UPDATE 2:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than thirty minutes before tipoff, Villanova is -5 (-105) on WynnBet’s Sunday NCAA Tournament odds board. The Wildcats, who opened -5.5, are taking 69% of tickets, but money is much closer to two-way play, at 53% on ‘Nova. The total initially dipped from 133.5 to 132.5, but is now up to 134, with tickets 2/1 and money nearing 9/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Villanova opened -5.5 at BetMGM and this morning dropped a point to -4.5. The Wildcats are drawing 58% of spread bets, while spread money is running almost dead even. The total opened at 131.5, spent time at 132.5, then this morning shot up to 134.5. Updated betting splits weren’t available, though prior to that 2-point surge, tickets and money were beyond 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Two teams that barely surrendered a combined 100 points in their opening-round matches meet for a berth in the Sweet 16.

In what was arguably the ugliest game of the entire first round, Ohio State (20-11 SU, 16-15 ATS) took out 10th-seeded Loyola Chicago 54-41 on Friday, covering as a 1-point underdog. The Buckeyes, who entered March Madness in a 1-4 SU/ATS slump, advanced to the second round for the first time since 2018.

Villanova (27-7 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) struggled for most of the first half against No. 15 seed Delaware, but opened a 10-point lead by halftime and rolled to an 80-60 victory as a 15-point chalk. The Wildcats, who won the Big East conference tournament, have won six in a row and 11 of 12. However, they’ve alternated spread-covers in their last six games and are just 5-8-1 ATS in their last 14.

Ohio State, which hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2015, has cashed in four straight games as an underdog and five of six as a neutral-site pup. However, the Buckeyes are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Tournament contests. Conversely, Villanova is on a 17-5 ATS tear in the Tourney (16-5 ATS as a chalk).

Even though Ohio State never came close to the 133-point total against Loyola-Chicago, the Over remains 21-10 in its last 31 March Madness games.

Late Saturday night, Villanova is laying 5 points at WynnBet, down a half-point from the -5.5 opener. The Wildcats are taking 74% of spread tickets and 63% of spread money. The total is stable at 132.5, with tickets 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over.[/accordion]

Props.com’s Matt Jacob and Jim Barnes contributed to this report.

The post Sunday NCAA Tournament Odds: Sharp Money On Texas Vs Purdue appeared first on Props.

It’s on to the Round of 32, and the Saturday NCAA Tournament odds board includes a few teams that jump out at you. Most notably among those outfits is No. 15 seed St. Peter’s, coming off one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history.

Less surprising is a Saturday showdown between blueblood North Carolina and defending national champion Baylor.

Props.com breaks down the first day of second-round games, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on Saturday March Madness odds and action. Check back for updates through tipoff of these contests.

Saturday NCAA Tournament Odds

Odds via WynnBet and updated as of 9 p.m. ET on March 19.

NCAA West Region Odds and Action

No. 12 New Mexico State vs No. 4 Arkansas

Game information: 8:40 p.m. ET at Buffalo, N.Y. (TNT)

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Arkansas hasn’t budged off -6.5 at TwinSpires, with about 45 minutes to go until tipoff. New Mexico State is netting 56% of tickets, while 53% of cash is on the Razorbacks. The total opened at 139, dipped to 138 and is now 138.5, with 6% of tickets on the Over/53% of money on the Under. “Sharp play on Under 139,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Arkansas opened -6.5 and remains -6.5 at WynnBet, with ticket count 2/1 on New Mexico State and money 2/1 on the Razorbacks. The total opened at 139.5 and is now 138.5, with 72% of bets on the Over/78% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: New Mexico State was responsible for one of two No. 12 over No. 5 upsets in Thursday’s opening round. Now the WAC champions find themselves as sizable underdogs in a second-round matchup with No. 4 seed Arkansas.

The Aggies (27-6 SU, 18-12 ATS) took the court as a 6-point pup against UConn in Buffalo and led most of the way en route to a 70-63 victory. New Mexico State, which snapped a 12-game NCAA Tournament losing skid dating to 1993, has won and covered four in a row.

Arkansas got all it could handle from 13^th-seeded Vermont on Thursday but held on for a 75-71 victory, falling just shy as a 4.5-point chalk. The Razorbacks (26-8 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) have followed a six-game winning streak by alternating SU wins and losses in their last four outings. Also, the Hogs have failed to cash in back-to-back games after a 14-2-1 ATS romp.

New Mexico State has cashed in five straight contests as an underdog, while Arkansas is in ATS funks of 1-3-1 as a favorite overall and 1-5 as a chalk in the Tournament.

NMSU’s game against UConn barely crept Over the total, making the Over 8-1 in its last nine neutral-site outings, 4-0 in its past four March Madness contests, and 5-0 in its last five neutral-site contests. Arkansas has topped the total in seven consecutive games overall and five straight at neutral venues.

Arkansas opened as a 6.5-point favorite on PointsBet USA’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds board and hasn’t moved yet. Underdog New Mexico State is the play with early bettors, as ticket count is 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Aggies. The total opened at 139.5 and has seen only a juice adjustment so far, to Under -120. The Over is seeing 63% of tickets, while 59% of cash is on the Under.[/accordion]

No. 9 Memphis vs No. 1 Gonzaga

Game information: 9:40 p.m. ET at Portland, Oregon (TBS)

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Forty minutes from tipoff, Gonzaga is laying 10 points at TwinSpires Sportsbook, down a point from the -11 opener. The Zags are drawing 57% of spread tickets, and 60% of spread money is on the underdog Tigers. “Sharp play on Memphis +11,” TwinSpires director of retail sports said. The total rose from 154 to 155, with ticket count 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Zags have opened -11 (-105) at WynnBet, and dipped to -10 by late Friday night. Gonzaga is drawing 71% of spread money, but 80% of spread cash is on underdog Memphis. The total opened at 153.5 (Over -115) and is up to 154.5, with early ticket count 4/1 and practically all the early money on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Gonzaga survived a bit of a scare in its opening-round game. Now the No. 1 overall seed will try to get past a ninth-seeded Memphis squad that’s on a roll.

The Bulldogs (27-3 SU, 14-13-3 ATS) found themselves tied with No. 16 seed Georgia State nearing the midpoint of the second half, then kicked it into gear and pulled away for a 93-72 victory. The nation’s highest scoring team outscored the Panthers 41-18 over the final 13 minutes and change, but still came up just short as a 22.5-point favorite.

Memphis had a completely opposite experience in its first-round game against No. 8 seed Boise State. The Tigers (22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) opened a 38-19 halftime lead and remained in control for much of the second half before surviving a late Boise rally and extending for a 64-53 win as a 3.5-point chalk.

Gonzaga, which started last season 31-0 before losing to Baylor in the national championship game, enters Saturday having won 20 of its last 21 games. However, the Zags are just 10-8-3 ATS in that span, including 1-5-2 ATS in the last eight.

The Tigers, who are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014, waltz into the Round of 32 on a 13-2 SU run. Additionally, Memphis is on ATS surges of 11-3 overall, 9-3 at neutral sites, and 16-5 as an underdog.

The Under is 3-1-1 in Memphis’ last five overall, 5-1 in its last six at neutral sites, and 7-3 in Gonzaga’s last 10 overall.

Gonzaga opened as a 10.5-point chalk early this morning at PointsBet USA, and the line remains there early this evening. Memphis is actually taking 61% of early spread bets and 85% of early spread dollars. The total is also stable, at 154.5, though 84% of bets/88% of dollars are on the Over.[/accordion]

NCAA East Region Odds and Action

No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 1 Baylor

Game information: 12:10 p.m. ET at Fort Worth, Texas (CBS)

UPDATE 11:15 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Less than an hour before tipoff, Baylor is laying 6 points at PointsBet USA, matching the opening number. However, the Bears did make a couple trips down to -4.5, late Friday night and within the past hour, before surging up. North Carolina is seeing 52% of spread tickets, while 55% of spread dollars are on Baylor. The total has bounced around, from a 149.5 opener down to 147.5 a couple of times, then up to 149, and it’s now 148.5. It’s two-way action, with 55% of tickets/52% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: North Carolina and Baylor return to the court in Fort Worth, Texas, after posting the two biggest blowouts in Thursday’s opening round of games.

Baylor (27-6 SU, 17-14-2 ATS) began defense of its 2021 national championship by throttling No. 16 seed Norfolk State 85-49 as a 20.5-point chalk. The Bears, who were coming off an upset loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, posted their highest point total since a 104-68 victory over Northwestern State back on Dec. 28.

North Carolina (25-9 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) followed Baylor to the court and hammered 11^th-seeded Marquette 95-63 as a 4-point favorite. The Tar Heels, who bowed out of the ACC tournament in the semifinals, opened a 53-25 halftime lead and cruised from there.

Baylor is 6-1 SU in its last seven games overall, but just 3-3-1 ATS. On the positive side, the Bears have now won seven consecutive NCAA Tournament games, cashing in the last six in a row (5-0 ATS as a favorite). Going back to 2019, the defending champs are 7-1 ATS in the Big Dance.

North Carolina is on a 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS roll. However, despite Thursday’s rout of Marquette, the Heels remain just 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament contests, and they’ve failed to cover in six straight as a Tourney underdog.

The Over is 15-6-1 in UNC’s last 22 games overall.

Baylor, which is 9-2 ATS this season when laying 7 points or less, is a 5.5-point chalk at PointsBet USA, with no movement yet off that opening number. Ticket count is almost dead even, but money is almost 2/1 on underdog North Carolina. The total also hasn’t moved, sticking at 149.5, despite an early 4/1 ticket count and 9/1 money count on the Under.[/accordion]

No. 5 St. Mary’s vs No. 4 UCLA

Game information: 7:10 p.m. ET at Portland, Oregon (TBS)

UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Shortly before tipoff, UCLA is laying 3 points at TwinSpires Sportsbook, up from the -2.5 opener. St. Mary’s is taking 56% of spread tickets, while 61% of spread cash is on the Bruins. “Sharp play on UCLA -2.5,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total is down a point to 126, with 56% of tickets on the Over/66% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: UCLA hit WynnBet’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds board at -2.5 (-115) and is now -3. However, ticket count is just shy of 2/1 on St. Mary’s, and money is nearing 2.5/1 on the Gaels. The total fell from 127 to 126, with tickets 5/1 on the Over and money 2.5/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: One year after a stunning run from the First Four to the Final Four, UCLA nearly went one-and-done in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

The Bruins (26-7 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) trailed 13^th-seeded Akron most of the way Thursday night in Portland, Oregon, but rallied late and held on for a 57-53 victory. However, they never threatened to cover the 13.5-point spread, ending a 6-0 ATS run in the Tournament (all last year).

St. Mary’s was another blowout winner Thursday, breaking open a tight game late in the first half and rolling to an 82-53 victory over No. 11 seed/First Four-winner Indiana. The Gaels (26-7 SU/20-10-2 ATS) had no trouble covering as a 2.5-point favorite.

UCLA is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games but has failed to cash in its last two after a 7-2 ATS surge. That said, the Bruins are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 neutral-site starts.

St. Mary’s is 14-3 SU/11-4-2 ATS since Jan. 13, with two of the three outright losses coming to West Coast Conference rival and No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga. However, the Gaels have failed to cover in their last four as a March Madness underdog.

For St. Mary’s, the Under is on runs of 51-18 as an underdog, 9-4 at neutral sites, and 7-2 in the Tournament. UCLA also has stayed low in seven of its last 10 Tournament contests, but the over is 5-2 in its last seven games overall.

UCLA has been at various iterations of -3 in PointsBet USA’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds market. The Bruins are currently -3 (-105), with 57% of spread tickets on St. Mary’s, but 74% of cash on UCLA. The total is stuck on 126.5, though early tickets and money are running 4/1 on the Over.[/accordion]

No. 15 St. Peter’s vs No. 7 Murray State

Game information: 7:45 p.m. ET at Indianpolis (CBS)

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Inside an hour before game time, Murray State is a 7.5-point chalk at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening at -8 and peaking at -8.5. Tickets and money are running almost 2/1 on underdog St. Peter’s. “St. Peter’s is our most-popular-bet ‘dog today. We’ll need Murray State to at least win, as St. Peter’s moneyline is a very popular pick,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total is down to 128.5 from a 130 opener, with 61% of tickets/62% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: WynnBet moved Murray State from -8 to -9 in its Saturday NCAA Tournament odds market. However, resident Cinderella St. Peter’s is nabbing 67% of spread bets and 59% of spread cash. The total is steady at 130, with 70% of bets/72% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Some 48 hours after pulling off the biggest March Madness shocker to date, St. Peter’s will try to score another upset when it meets No. 7 seed Murray State in Indianapolis.

The 15^th-seeded Peacocks went off as an 18-point underdog against No. 2 seed Kentucky on Thursday night, went toe-to-toe with the Wildcats the entire way, and eventually prevailed 85-79 in overtime. In knocking out a team that was among the top three favorites in to win the NCAA title, St. Peter’s (20-11 SU, 20-9-1 ATS) picked up its first Tournament win in school history.

Like the Peacocks, Murray State (31-2 SU, 17-12-1 ATS) needed overtime to advance to the Round of 32. Facing No. 10 seed San Francisco, the Racers squandered a late lead in regulation but gutted out a 92-87 victory, cashing as a 1.5-point favorite. It was the school’s fourth NCAA Tournament victory ever, and second since 2019.

Both these teams are scalding hot. St. Peter’s is on an 8-0 SU/ATS tear and continues to sport one of the nation’s best point-spread records. The Peacocks are also on ATS tears of 6-0 as an underdog and 12-2 at neutral sites.

Meanwhile, Murray State now owns the nation’s longest SU winning streak at 21-0. The Racers snapped an 0-3 ATS slide with Thursday’s spread-cover, but they’re still just a middling 11-9-1 ATS during their winning streak.

The Under is 5-2 in St. Peter’s last seven overall and 27-13-2 in its last 42 at neutral venues. Murray State has stayed low in seven of its last 10 March Madness outings.

Murray State hit PointsBet USA’s board as an 8.5-point favorite early today and by lunchtime got to -9, where the line sits now. St. Peter’s is taking 57% of spread bets, while 72% of spread cash is on Murray State. The total hasn’t budged off 129.5, though early tickets are 5/1-plus and early money almost 4/1 on the Over.[/accordion]

NCAA South Region Odds and Action

No. 11 Michigan vs No. 3 Tennessee (5:15 p.m. ET)

Game information: 5:15 p.m. ET at Indianapolis (CBS)

UPDATE 4:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Thirty minutes before tipoff, Tennessee is a 7-point chalk at TwinSpires Sportsbook, continuing a progression from -5.5 to -6 to -6.5. Ticket count and money are running 4/1 on the Vols. “Lopsided liability on the Vols. Michigan is a big need,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total moved from 136 to 136.5, then back to 136, and it’s now 137. The Under is seeing 53% of tickets, while 64% of cash is on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tennessee is up to -6.5 from a -6 opener at WynnBet, where 56% of bets and 78% of dollars are on the Vols. The total is stable at 136.5, with 70% of bets/66% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tennessee (27-7 SU, 21-13 ATS) crushed No. 14 seed Longwood 88-56 as an 18-point favorite Thursday, continuing the Volunteers’ hot streak from the SEC tournament. Tennessee has now covered four straight, including three in a row last week to claim the conference tournament crown.

Michigan (18-14 SU, 14-18 ATS) rallied from a 15-point first-half deficit to cover as a 1.5-point favorite in a 75-63 victory over No. 6 seed Colorado State on Thursday. Bouncing back from an opening loss at the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines will now try to cover in back-to-back games for the first time since mid-January.

The Volunteers have won 16 of 18 SU, going 12-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Michigan has now alternated SU wins and losses in 11 consecutive games and alternated ATS wins and losses in its last 14. The Wolverines come into this one on an 8-1-1 spread-covering tear as an underdog at neutral sites.

Both teams topped the total in their opening-round games. The Over is now 20-12 in Michigan games this season (5-1 in the last six). Tennessee is 4-1 Over in its last five NCAA Tournament affairs.

Tennessee opened as a 6-point favorite at PointsBet USA, and the line has stayed there with 73% of tickets and 74% of money on the Volunteers. The total has moved from 133.5 to 135.5 with 77% of tickets and 72% of money on the Over.[/accordion]

NCAA Midwest Region Odds and Action

No. 9 Creighton vs No. 1 Kansas

Game information: 2:40 p.m. ET at Fort Worth, Texas (CBS)

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kansas is out to a 12.5-point chalk at WynnBet, after opening -11 on Friday. However, that move has come despite point-spread money running almost dead even. The Jayhawks are taking 68% of point-spread tickets. The total is up to 140 from a 138.5 opener, with 71% of tickets and practically all the money on the Over, a couple of hours before tipoff.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kansas (29-6 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) pulled away from No. 16 seed Texas Southern in Thursday’s final game, covering as a 21.5-point favorite in an easy 83-56 victory. The Jayhawks have won six in a row and cashed in a season-high five straight.

Creighton (23-11 SU, 20-14 ATS) scored the final nine points of regulation to force overtime against No. 8-seed San Diego State, then pulled out a 72-69 victory as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bluejays trailed for almost the entire game against the Aztecs, who completed an 0-4 sweep for Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament.

During its 5-0 ATS surge, Kansas has cashed in four games as at neutral sites. Meanwhile, Creighton has now covered four straight and 10 of 12, and the Bluejays are also 20-8 ATS in their last 20 as an underdog. However, despite Thursday’s upset win, they’re still just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 March Madness contests.

The Under is 5-2 in both teams’ last seven games, with Kansas staying low against Texas Southern and Creighton topping the total versus San Diego State.

Kansas has been one of the big early movers at PointsBet USA, going from the opener of -9.5 to -11.5 (-105), hitting -10 (-120) along the way. The Jayhawks are getting 72% of tickets and 84% of money. The total has moved from 137.5 to 139 and now 139.5, with 84% of tickets and 87% of money on the Over.[/accordion]

No. 12 Richmond vs No. 4 Providence

Game information: 6:10 p.m. ET at Buffalo, N.Y. (TNT)

UPDATE 4:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: About 90 minutes from game time, Providence is a 3.5-point favorite at TwinSpires, after opening -3, dipping to -2.5, then returning to -3. The Friars are taking 62% of spread tickets, while 53% of spread cash is on Richmond. “We’ve seen sharp play on both sides,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total opened at 133 and spent time at 133.5 on the way to 134, with tickets and money in the 2/1 range on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Providence opened -3 in WynnBet’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds market and initially backed up to -2.5 Friday night. However, the Friars jumped to -3 and then to -3.5 midmorning today. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 4/1 on Providence. The total is stable at 134.5, with 56% of tickets on the Over/77% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Providence (26-5, 18-13 ATS) shrugged off its doubters Thursday, winning and covering as a 2.5-point favorite in a 66-57 victory over No. 13 seed and popular upset pick South Dakota State. With the victory, Providence snapped South Dakota’s 21-game winning streak, which had been the longest in the country.

The Friars, who won their first-ever Big East regular-season title by percentage points over Villanova, also earned their first NCAA Tournament victory since 2016. They had lost eight of nine March Madness games since reaching the Elite Eight in 1997.

Richmond (24-12, 18-18 ATS) provided the first upset of this Tournament, knocking off No. 5 seed Iowa 67-63 on Thursday as 9.5-point underdogs. The Spiders remain one of the hottest teams in the NCAA Tournament, having won five in a row — including four straight as an underdog — and seven of nine.

Richmond is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011, when it reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed before losing to No. 1 seed Kansas. (Is it fate? Richmond could meet No. 1 Kansas in the Sweet 16 this year.)

Providence has cashed in four of its last six games but remains just 1-5 ATS in its last six Tournament outings and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 at neutral sites. Richmond’s 4-0 ATS surge (all at neutral sites) follows a 2-7 ATS slide. Both teams stayed Under the total on Thursday. The Under is now 13-4-1 the Spiders’ last 18 overall and 5-1 in Providence’s last six at neutral venues.

Providence opened as a 3-point favorite at PointsBet USA, moved down to 2.5, back to 3 and now back to 2.5. Richmond is on 53% of tickets, but Providence is getting 56% of money. The total has been steady at 134.5, with 67% of tickets and 77% of money on the Under.[/accordion]

Props.com’s Jim Barnes and Matt Jacob contributed to this report.

The post Saturday NCAA Tournament Odds: Two-Way Play On Memphis Vs Gonzaga appeared first on Props.

There are lots of things to like about betting on college basketball conference tournament odds. If you happen to be in Las Vegas over the next week, well, it’s a helluva lot easier to get great seats — for free, no less — at the myriad sportsbooks around town. Try your luck at that on St. Patrick’s Day, when the NCAA Tournament tips off.

Plus, if you’re a real college hoops junkie, Vegas plays host to five conference tournaments, including the West Coast Conference, home of March Madness favorite Gonzaga. The Pac-12, Mountain West, WAC and Big West tourneys are also in town.

So you can pop open your mobile app and fire on conference tournament odds while actually attending your favorite tournament.

But whether you’re at a big book in Vegas or on your couch in the middle of Indiana, there’s a widely held view that conference tournament betting provides customers more opportunity and more value than the Big Dance that follows.

Props.com looks into the veracity of that viewpoint, with insights from avid college basketball bettor Andy Molitor, as well as John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook.

Matt Foley, Motivational Bettor

With a hat tip to the late Chris Farley’s greatest Saturday Night Live character, one area in which conference tournament odds offer betting value is motivation.

“In small conferences, if you don’t win the tournament, you’re not in the NCAA Tournament. So the motivation is there for every team,” said Molitor, the head of content at BetSperts. “So many of these [smaller] tournaments are laden with upsets.”

And often it’s the conference bottom feeders that pull off the biggest stunners. Just this week, as the Big South tourney got underway, a Charleston Southern outfit that notched just five wins all season — and went 1-15 in conference — pulled a first-round upset. As the 12th seed in a 12-team league, the Buccaneers were 11-point ‘dogs against No. 5 seed North Carolina-Asheville and won outright 79-78.

Granted, short of winning the Big South, UNC-Asheville wasn’t going to sniff the NCAA Tournament. But the point remains that these kinds of conference tourney upsets — right up into finals — can and do happen.

“UNC-Asheville didn’t take Charleston Southern seriously and lost outright,” Molitor said. “In some conference tournaments, you see a lot of underdogs covering big numbers, and some of these really bad teams are even winning outright, just because of the malaise of these higher-seeded teams.”

And if a No. 1 seed suffers from such malaise and bows out of a conference tournament early, it’s essentially a season-killer. “Murray State is probably the only school [this season] that could lose a mid-major tourney and still get into the NCAA Tournament,” Molitor said, referring at the time to a Racers squad that was 28-2 SU, including a perfect 18-0 in the Ohio Valley Conference.

By any measure, Murray State is a worthy NCAA Tournament entrant. The Racers are No. 22 in this week’s AP poll, No. 27 in the KenPom ratings, and No. 23 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. And as it turned out, Murray State (now 30-2 SU) won the OVC championship to make the point moot. Still, most mid-major and smaller-conference top seeds don’t have nearly that kind of pre-conference tourney résumé.

As such, those teams have zero margin for error come conference tourney time. Which brings us back to the “M” word.

“A lot of these mid-major teams have the motivation,” Molitor said. “There’s so much pressure on some of these No. 1 seeds that it has to feel like such a letdown if you don’t get the automatic bid. These 1 seeds go down all the time.”

Who Wants It More?

Molitor stresses that also-rans from smaller conferences aren’t the only teams that enter their league tournaments with a high degree of motivation. Betting value also exists with lower-seeded squads from Power 5 conferences. Bettors just have to know where to look.

“Some of these [marquee] teams know they’re going to be in the NCAA Tournament,” Molitor said, noting that such teams don’t have the same sense of urgency as their less-talented opponents. “Some bettors are able to anticipate these situations and [wager on] lesser teams that they believe will make a strong conference tournament run and slide off the bubble and into the [NCAA] Tournament.

“Conference tournaments are a lot different than the normal cadence of the regular season. You can be playing on back-to-back-to-back-to-back nights in these tournaments. I’m not a big hot-hand guy, but that stuff happens. Look at Michigan from a few years ago.”

Indeed, in 2018, the Wolverines were seeded fifth in the Big Ten, meaning they got a single bye but missed out on the double-bye awarded the top four teams. However, Michigan went out and won four games in four days to claim the conference tourney and the league’s automatic NCAA bid.

The Wolverines remained hot right up until the NCAA championship game, which they lost to Villanova 79-62.

As an oddsmaker, Murray is certainly a believer in the conference tournament motivation theory. It boils down to the simple fact that these games are more important to some teams than others.

“It makes a lot of sense,” he said. “There are some teams playing this next week where, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t matter what happens. Teams like Gonzaga and Arizona. They aren’t gonna be nearly as motivated as the opponents they face.”

And that creates potential wagering opportunities in the conference tournament odds market.

Murray harkened back to the 2011 Big East tournament, in which Connecticut was seeded ninth among 16 teams. The Huskies made a riveting five-game run to win the conference championship. From there, UConn notched six more wins to claim the NCAA title, beating Butler 53-41 in the final.

Michigan and UConn’s runs notwithstanding, Murray said conference tourney momentum generally doesn’t carry over to the NCAA Tournament.

“Once you get into the NCAAs, everybody is gonna have those same motivations,” he said.

Looking Into The Futures

As Molitor surveys next week’s conference tournament landscape, he points out that a sea of games will roll out seemingly all day, every day, through March 12. It’s a lot to digest, and if your appetite isn’t large enough to do deep dives on dozens of contests from multiple leagues each and every day, there might be a more appealing menu item.

“I have seen some value in the conference tournament futures markets,” Molitor said. “A lot of these odds seem to be really tilted toward teams that don’t deserve such love.”

One example: Loyola-Chicago hails from the Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola-Chicago entered the tourney as the No. 4 seed, yet was favored to win it all. That’s largely due, in Molitor’s opinion, to recency bias: the Ramblers’ memorable run to the 2018 Final Four, and last year’s Sweet 16 effort.

“Everyone remembers Loyola and Sister Jean,” Molitor said. “They were +115 to win [this year’s] MVC tournament, and they’re the fourth seed. They’re just not as good this year. There was some value on basically all the other good teams.”

As it turned out, Loyola-Chicago ended up winning the MVC title, beating No. 3 seed Drake 64-58 in the final. But that doesn’t negate Molitor’s point on where the value stood.

Murray agrees that underdog value exists in the conference tourney futures market. But there’s a spin-off to that option that he likes even better.

“When betting teams to win conference tournaments, a lot of the time, it’s really hard to get good value on long shots. In some of these, teams have to win four or five games” to win the tournament, Murray said. “It’s probably better to just make a moneyline straight bet on [your favorite underdog], then roll it into the next game. So take ’em in Game 1, and roll it into Game 2, etc.”

Murray also noted that it’s worth looking over a conference’s bracket, then figuring out what the price/payout would be on each subsequent matchup — assuming the underdog you’re targeting will face favorites all the way through.

“In general, if you’ve got to beat all the high seeds, then you’re better off rolling over [your wagers] on the moneyline,” he said.

Molitor agreed that taking just a few minutes to study brackets and other widely available information can help give you an edge in the conference tournament odds market.

“I’d start by looking at some of these websites, even Bracketology, getting to know who’s [likely] already in the NCAA Tournament,” he said. “Understanding that information and digging into some stats can justify the direction you’re leaning.”

The post Conference Tournament Odds Present Better Betting Opportunities appeared first on Props.

Super Bowl odds have been percolating for two weeks, getting plenty of attention as the 2021-22 season approaches its final Sunday. The upstart Cincinnati Bengals face the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 56, with the Rams getting to play on their home field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Feb. 13.

Both teams advanced to Super Bowl 56 as No. 4 seeds — Cincinnati as the winner of the AFC North and Los Angeles as the NFC West champion.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on opening/current numbers, line moves and action on Super Bowl 56 odds. Check back regularly right through Sunday’s kickoff for more updates.

https://youtu.be/pc6LxhEFZTQ

2022 Super Bowl Odds

Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 5:45 p.m. ET on Feb. 13.

Super Bowl Point Spread

Opening line: Rams -3.5

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: Forty-five minutes before kickoff, PointsBet USA has Los Angeles a 4.5-point favorite. That’s up a half-point from the Jan. 30 opening line and a full point from a very brief stint at -3.5 midweek. It’s two-way action with a lean toward Cincinnati, which is taking 53% of spread bets and 56% of spread money.

“America believes in Joe Burrow,” PointsBet head oddsmaker Jay Croucher said. “All the late money has been on Cincinnati, tipping the balance, to the point where we’re now cheering for the home favorite.”

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: TwinSpires moved the Rams up to -4.5 this afternoon, up from the -4 line of this morning. The line opened Los Angeles -3.5 back on Jan. 30 and actually got to -4.5 in fairly short order, then returned to -4. Although L.A. is up to -4.5 today, Cincinnati is taking 55% of bets and 66% of money on the spread.

“The best-case scenario for us is the Rams by 1-3 points. I don’t see that changing before kickoff,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: With less than five hours until kickoff, DraftKings has the Rams -4 (-115), after opening Jan. 30 at -4 (-105). Since then, Los Angeles has toggled between -4 and -4.5 several times, with the last trip to -4.5 (even) lasting all of about one minute Saturday. The Bengals are taking 56% of spread bets and 52% of spread money.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 12: With one more sleep until Super Bowl Sunday, The SuperBook decided to offer a little special to spread bettors: -105 juice on both sides up until kickoff. So it is that the Rams are -4 (-105) tonight, after opening -3.5, spending much of the past two weeks at -4.5, then dipping to -4 Thursday. Even the largest Super Bowl 56 wager so far isn’t moving the number.

“Friday, we had a guy but Bengals +4 for $380,000. But we stayed at 4,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said. “There’s no need to do anything drastic. There’s plenty of time until kickoff. But we’re definitely Rams fans right now.”

Murray admitted he’s surprised that Bengals are attracting 65% of spread tickets, and the spread money is running even larger than that on the underdog.

“All the six-figure wagers are on the Bengals,” Murray said. “Right now, we want the Rams to win and cover, and the Under. If the Rams won this game 23-10, we’d do awesome. It’s unusual to be rooting for the favorite to win and cover in the Super Bowl. It happens, but not very often.

“But most of the money hasn’t arrived yet. It’s coming tonight and Sunday.”

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 11: Caesars goeth to -3.5, and Caesars returneth to -4.

Caesars Sportsbook shook things up very early Thursday morning by dropping the Rams from -4 to -3.5 (see below). Late this morning, though, Caesars returned to Rams -4. The book has spent much of the past two weeks toggling between L.A. -4 and -4.5, after opening -3.5.

But the roughly 36 hours that Caesars spent at -3.5 did generate some of the desired Rams play. On Thursday, Cincinnati was netting 64% of tickets on the spread; that’s now down to 59%. And on Thursday, 56% of spread money was on Los Angeles; that’s now up to 63%.

Caesars also noted that two Rams bettors — both in Nevada — have more than $1 million each tied to Rams spread bets. That said, Caesars also took a second massive “Mattress Mack” Bengals moneyline bet. More on that below in the Super Bowl Moneyline section.

Also worth noting when it comes to the Super Bowl 56 point spread: As of tonight, the Rams have gone from a consensus -4.5 at most sportsbooks to -4 across the board.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: In the very wee hours today — around 1:30 a.m. ET — Caesars Sportsbook put itself out there as the only legal U.S. book offering Rams -3.5. The move from -4 to -3.5 followed 10 days of toggling between -4 and -4.5, after opening Los Angeles -3.5. Tonight, Caesars remains at Rams -3.5, with 64% of tickets on Cincinnati and 56% of cash on Los Angeles.

But the 3.5 might not last too long, according to Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow.

“We are testing the appetite of Rams bettors. Why bet them elsewhere?” Mucklow asked.

Last week, Caesars took a $4.5 million bet from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale on Bengals moneyline +170. So perhaps the book is looking to manage that position by inviting Rams spread money. Or perhaps not.

“We want Rams money today. Tomorrow, we may want Bengals,” Mucklow said. “It’s about giving the public a choice and value.”

This afternoon at The SuperBook, the Rams dipped to -4, after sitting at -4.5 since Jan. 31.

“Some big bets came in [Wednesday] and today on the Bengals +4.5, and we felt the time was right to move down,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said.

UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 9: Inside 96 hours from kickoff, PointsBet USA has Los Angeles a 4-point favorite on its Super Bowl odds board, having just dropped to that number from -4.5 in the past few minutes. The Rams opened -4 on Jan. 30, nudged to various versions of -4.5 a few times last week, then on Sunday night briefly went to -3.5 (-115).

PointsBet bettors apparently jumped on that during a 25-minute stretch, after which the line went to -4 (-115) on its way back to -4.5 (-105) early Monday. L.A. is now -4 (-115).

“The Bengals continue to [hold] a slight edge in both tickets and handle, despite going back to +4,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. “Currently, 57% of bets and 54% of handle are on the Bengals in the spread market.”

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY, FEB. 8: The Rams went from -3.5 to -4.5 in fairly short order early last week at TwinSpires, and earlier today, the line was at -4. It’s now back up to Los Angeles -4.5, though Cincinnati is seeing 52% of spread tickets and 57% of spread money. “We’re Rams fans as of today,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, FEB. 7: WynnBet remains painted to Rams -4 in the Super Bowl odds market, with only a couple very minor price adjustments since first posting that number on Jan. 30. As of tonight, Los Angeles is -4 (-112), while taking 53% of spread bets and 65% of spread money. So WynnBet’s position remains the same, as well: It is rooting for a Rams win/Bengals cover.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 5: Los Angeles landed on WynnBet’s Super Bowl odds board as a 4-point favorite, and the number hasn’t budged at all, not even on the price. Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, but the Rams are taking 61% of spread money. WynnBet said its need at this point is a Rams win and a Bengals cover, which also lines up with its Super Bowl moneyline/futures position (see below).

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 4: PointsBet USA opened the Rams as a 4-point chalk and moved to -4.5 multiple times during the first of two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. The most recent move to -4.5 came this morning, but tonight, the line dipped back to Rams -4 (-115). It’s two-way action on the spread with a lean toward the Bengals, who are taking 57% of tickets and 52% of money.

UPDATE 1:30  P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 2: Los Angeles landed on DraftKings’ Super Bowl odds board as a 4-point favorite Sunday night, but with a modest juice reduction, priced at -105. Early Monday morning, the Rams moved to -4.5 (-105), then a few hours later went to -4 flat. Monday evening brought another rise to -4.5, and L.A. is now at -4.5 (-105) once again. However, contrary to the upward move, Cincinnati is taking the bulk of tickets and money, at 67% and 55%, respectively.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JAN. 31: Caesars Sportsbook opened the Rams -3.5 and didn’t stay there for long Sunday night before moving to -4. By lunchtime today, Los Angeles was up to -4.5, in part due to some hefty early wagers. Caesars didn’t release betting splits today, but the Rams have already drawn a $522,500 bet at -4 and a $105,000 bet at -4 (-105). After moving L.A. to -4.5, Caesars attracted a $110,000 bet on Cincinnati +4.5.

L.A. is technically the road team in the Super Bowl, but is playing on its home field at SoFi Stadium. However, Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen isn’t putting a whole lot of stock in that perceived advantage.

“The Rams may be more comfortable with their surroundings, but I don’t think [home field] means that much at all to the spread,” Pullen said. “Other people might disagree and think it’s worth a little. Maybe that’s the reason why the spread has gone up. It was 50/50 for Rams and 49ers fans yesterday, and [the] Super Bowl is corporate. It’s not like it’s your average fan that’ll be in a lot of the seats.”

UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JAN. 30: Cincinnati is the big surprise as one of the final two teams on the Super Bowl 56 odds board. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has the Bengals (13-7 SU and ATS) on the brink of their first championship. And Cincy did it the hard way, narrowly winning all three of its playoff games (the last two on the road) to land a spot at SoFi Stadium on Feb. 13.

Cincinnati entered Sunday’s AFC Championship Game as a 7-point road underdog against No. 2 seed and two-time defending conference champ Kansas City. Then Burrow and Co. fell into a 21-3 first-half hole. But the Bengals rallied to take a 24-21 lead before the Chiefs forced overtime on a final-seconds field goal.

K.C. won the coin toss and took the ball, but Patrick Mahomes threw an interception on third-and-long. The Bengals subsequently drove their way to a 31-yard field goal to win 27-24. All three of Cincinnati’s postseason wins came down to the final play: a defensive stop at the goal line against the Raiders on Super Wild Card Weekend; a 52-yard field goal as time expired at the Titans in the divisional round; and Sunday’s OT triumph in Kansas City.

The Bengals enter the Super Bowl for the third time in franchise history — and first time since the 1988 season — having cashed in seven consecutive games, while going 6-1 SU.

In the NFC Championship Game, Los Angeles rallied from a 17-7 fourth-quarter deficit to notch a 20-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. However, L.A. came up just short as a 3.5-point home chalk. The Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS) went ahead on a field goal with 1:46 remaining, then picked off Jimmy Garoppolo with less than a minute to play to seal the win.

The Rams are making their fifth Super Bowl appearance, including the second in the last four years.

“We saw one book open at Rams -5. We thought that was a little high. We’re gonna stay at -3.5 for now and see what happens,” Murray said minutes after the NFC Championship Game ended and The SuperBook posted its Super Bowl 56 odds.

What happened about 15 minutes after The SuperBook posted its opening number: The Rams moved to -4.

“We had board-cleaner players laying 3.5, because the market was higher, so we went with it,” Murray said of players looking to scoop up a perceived advantageous number. “We did take some big bets from house players on Bengals +4, but we are holding there for now.”

The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games away from Cincinnati, including 4-0 ATS in their last four. And although the Rams didn’t cover tonight, they are still 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine contests.[/accordion]

Super Bowl Over/Under

Opening Total: 51

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: The total opened at 49.5 and spent pretty much all of the past two weeks at 48.5 at PointsBet USA. Shortly before kickoff, this market is getting two-way action as well, with 56% of bets on the Over and money running almost dead even.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: TwinSpires Sportsbook has hung firm at 48.5 much of the past two weeks, after opening the total at 49. Ticket count is 2/1 on the Over, but money is running 2/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: DraftKings opened the total at 49.5 (Over -115) on its Super Bowl odds board two weeks ago. On Jan. 31, the total was down to 48.5, and it bottomed out at 48 on Feb. 1. The number returned to 48.5 on Feb. 2 and has fairly stable there since, with the exception of about 12 hours last weekend. The Over is netting 58% of tickets and money.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 12: The SuperBook had one of the higher opening totals, posting 51 back on Jan. 30, but it dropped to 48.5 by the afternoon of Jan. 31. The total didn’t move again until this morning, going to 49 for about four hours, then returning to 48.5. SuperBook executive director John Murray didn’t have splits available, but assured that the book is going to need Under, which is no surprise in the Super Bowl.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 11: The total remained pinned at 48.5 today at Caesars Sports, with 54% of bets on the Over and 61% of money on the Under. Don’t be surprised if that stagnant line finally moves come Saturday, as business really starts to pick up with public bettors gearing up for the Big Game.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: Caesars books opened the total at 50 and, like pretty much every other shop, quickly got down to 48.5, with the number stuck there since Jan. 31. The Over is seeing 53% of tickets, while 63% of cash is on the Under. With the weekend on deck, the public will start firing on the Over, though. So don’t be surprised to see this number tick up.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: PointsBet USA dropped the total from 49.5 to 48.5 within a day, on Jan. 31, and bottomed out at 48 on Friday morning. On Friday night, the total returned to 48.5, where it held until rising to 49.5 late Tuesday afternoon. that lasted about three hours before PointsBet dialed back to 48.5.

“Significant action on the Over in the last 24 hours,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. “Handle was split 50/50 [Wednesday], and now, 60% of handle is on the Over. Tickets are at 57% on the Over.”

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY, FEB. 8: The total nudged down a half-point early last week, from 49 to 48.5, and it hasn’t moved since at TwinSpires. The Over is attracting 69% of tickets thus far, but 63% of cash is on the Under. “It’s Pros vs. Joes on the total,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said, noting sharp play on the Under.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, FEB. 7: It’s been six days since any movement at WynnBet, where the total opened at 49.5, dipped to 48.5 by Tuesday evening and stuck there. The Over is netting 56% of tickets, while the Under is seeing 67% of money.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 5: WynnBet’s opening total of 49.5 lasted about 12 hours, falling to 49 Monday morning. On Tuesday evening, the total dropped another notch to 48.5, where it’s been stuck ever since. The Over is seeing 55% of tickets, while 67% of money is on the Under.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 4: After opening at 49.5, PointsBet USA lowered the total to 48.5 Monday and stuck there all week. Then this morning, the total took another dip down to 48 (Over -115) before returning to 48.5 tonight. Much like the Super Bowl spread, the total is seeing two-way play: 52% of bets on the Over, 58% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 2: DraftKings opened the Super Bowl total at 49.5 (Over -115), went to 49 Monday morning, then to 48.5 Monday afternoon. The Over/Under remains at 48.5 today, with 55% of tickets and money on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JAN. 31: The total is already down 1.5 points at Caesars books, opening at 50, dipping to 49 by midmorning  today, then to 48.5 late this afternoon. Caesars hasn’t yet released betting splits, but 48.5 is the consensus total, with several books currently offering that number.

UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JAN. 30: The SuperBook opened the total for Super Bowl 56 at 51 and almost immediately dipped to 50.5, then to 50 a few minutes later. Both the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game totals stayed Under, with the numbers closing at 54.5 in the AFC and 45.5 in the AFC.

“We moved the total down to get in line with the market,” Murray said.

Los Angeles will play the Super Bowl on its home field, where the Under is 6-1 in the Rams’ last seven outings. The Under is also 8-2 in the Bengals’ last 10 away from Cincy.

Additionally, after five of the six Super Wild Card Weekend games went Over the total, four of the last six playoff contests have stayed low.[/accordion]

Super Bowl Moneyline

Opening Moneyline: Rams -185/Bengals +165

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: After two full weeks of action, the moneyline at PointsBet USA is right where it started: Rams -200/Bengals +165. The low point of L.A. -180/Cincy +150 occurred three times, most recently late Friday night. Like the spread and total, it’s two-way action on the moneyline, with 53% of bets on the Bengals and 52% of money on the Rams.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: TwinSpires opened the moneyline at Los Angeles -180/Cincinnati +150 and spent much of the past week at Rams -200/Bengals +165. This afternoon, the moneyline rose to Rams -210/Bengals +170. Similar to the spread, Cincinnati is taking 57% of tickets and 67% of money.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET SUNDAY, FEB. 13: DraftKings’ Super Bowl moneyline market opened at Rams -190/Bengals +160 and peaked Feb. 4 at Rams -210/Bengals +175. Later that same day, the moneyline hit its low of Rams -180/Bengals +155, and it’s currently at the opener of -190/+160. Cincinnati is attracting 63% of tickets and 64% of cash to post the outright win.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB. 12: As with the spread, The SuperBook has special moneyline pricing through Sunday’s kickoff, with a 15-cent straddle. Tonight, Los Angeles is -190 and Cincinnati +175, up from the -185/+165 opener two weeks ago, but shy of the -200/+175 high point.

“We need the Rams on the moneyline,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said, noting the book would take that, even though the futures book isn’t good to L.A. “We do really bad on the Rams in the futures, and great on the Bengals. But that won’t be factored into the way we book the game. There’s nothing we can do about that.”

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 11: While Caesars was able to acquire more Rams spread money over the last day or so, it also took another massive bet on Bengals moneyline. And again, it came from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who plowed $5 million onto Cincy +170. Last week, McIngvale put $4.5 million on the Bengals at +170.

So all told, the Houston furniture magnate — looking to hedge against a promotion he’s offering customers — has $9.5 million on Cincinnati moneyline, to win $16.2 million. Even with those millions coming in on Cincy, Los Angeles is still taking 52% of moneyline dollars, while the Bengals are getting 74% of moneyline tickets.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET THURSDAY, FEB. 10: As noted above, Caesars took a $4.5 million dollar moneyline play on Cincinnati +170 last week, courtesy of Houston furniture magnate Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale. So that’s certainly helping skew moneyline splits, with the Bengals taking 77% of tickets/70% of money. Caesars opened the moneyline at Rams -185/Bengals +165 and peaked at Rams -200/Bengals +175 Jan. 31. Very early today, the price dropped substantially, from -190/+160 to -170/+150, in line with Caesars’ move to Rams -3.5 on the spread. The moneyline briefly nudged up to -180/+155 midmorning, then moved to -175/+150.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 9: PointsBet USA pegged the moneyline Rams -200/Bengals +165 at the Jan. 30 outset and has since made multiple trips to Rams -190/Bengals +160. This evening, it’s back at the opener of L.A. -200/Bengals +165. Interestingly, while other books are seeing more ‘dog action on the moneyline, the trend differs at PointsBet.

“It’s the Bengals with the slight edge in tickets, at 53%, but bigger bets have come in on the Rams, including a $240,000 bet [at -200]. Right now, handle is 72% Rams. Last Friday, it was nearly 80%,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said.

Of course, futures wagers placed early in the season on Rams and Bengals play into this market, too. Added PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn: “Our futures book would benefit from a Bengals win, as we have more action on Rams futures. Overall, though, the book will be in a good spot come Sunday, with fairly balanced action all around.”

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY, FEB. 8: TwinSpires opened the moneyline at Rams -180/Bengals +150, and it’s now sitting at Rams -200/Bengals +163. Cincinnati is getting 58% of moneyline bets/64% of moneyline dollars. “The Bengals are a trendy ‘dog. It’s shaping up to be a big liability for us, but a lot could change this weekend,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. “Regardless of who wins, we’re a winner in the futures market, but we’d prefer the Rams to win.”

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, FEB. 7: The moneyline has been stable since Thursday morning at WynnBet, sitting at Rams -200/Bengals +165. Cincinnati is drawing 66% of moneyline bets and 53% of moneyline dollars. WynnBet junior trader Anthony Smock noted that at the moment, the ideal outcome is in line with the need on the spread (see above).

“We will need the Rams, both for the game’s moneyline and from a futures standpoint,” Smock said. “I feel like with that position, we are in a good spot, because the Rams match up well against the Bengals with their pass rush, and they have a good secondary. This is also [coach Sean] McVay’s second trip to the Super Bowl, which helps them, as well.”

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY, FEB 5: Los Angeles opened as a -190 moneyline favorite on WynnBet’s Super Bowl odds board, with Cincinnati +155 on the buyback. On Tuesday evening, the Rams drifted to -195, and by Thursday morning, L.A. reached -200, with Cincy +165. That’s where the moneyline remains tonight. The Bengals are netting 65% of tickets and 55% of cash.

Keep in mind that the Super Bowl moneyline is ostensibly the evolution of the championship futures market. As such, WynnBet said the Rams are the better result in the futures book, which to a degree is in line with the book’s need on the spread: A Rams win and a Bengals cover.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY, FEB. 4: The moneyline opened at Rams -200/Bengals +165 in PointsBet’s Super Bowl odds market and initially dipped to Rams -190/Bengals +160 early this week. However, on Tuesday morning, the pricing returned to L.A. -200/Cincinnati +165, and it’s been unchanged since. Cincy is seeing 54% of moneyline bets, but 79% of moneyline dollars are on Los Angeles.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, FEB. 2: The Rams opened at -190, with the Bengals at +160 in DraftKings’ Super Bowl odds moneyline market. Early Monday, the moneyline peaked at Rams -210/Bengals +175, and late Tuesday night, it hit a low of L.A. +180/Cincy +155. The pricing is now at Los Angeles -200/Cincinnati +170, with the underdog Bengals nabbing 70% of bets/63% of dollars.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JAN. 31: To reiterate, the Super Bowl moneyline is basically the evolution of Super Bowl futures odds. And with the Bengals having much longer odds preseason/early season, it’s not surprising that a few flier tickets are out there, with bettors hoping to cash out big.

Cincinnati is currently +170 on the moneyline at Caesars books. But in the Super Bowl futures market, the Bengals opened +12,500 (125/1) and went to +15,000 (150/1) after a Week 2 loss to the Bears. Caesars didn’t take any significant bets at either price, but did take a $3,400 bet at +10,000 (100/1) in mid-September, which would pay out $340,000. In late October, a bettor put $13,440 on Cincy at +3,500, to win $470,400.

Conversely, L.A. had relatively short odds all season long. The most noteworthy futures bet was for $5,000 at +1,200 in late September, for a potential $60,000 win. However, on Sunday night, Caesars took a $180,000 Rams moneyline -180 bet, to potentially win $100,000.

UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JAN. 30: At this stage, the Super Bowl futures odds market ostensibly merges into the moneyline for the Big Game. The Rams opened -185 in the Super Bowl odds moneyline market, with the Bengals a +165 underdog. There was no movement tonight.

The SuperBook has a very cut-and-dry position on Super Bowl futures/moneyline.

“That’s an easy one,” Murray said. “The Bengals are a big winner for us, and the Rams are a big loser.”

For what it’s worth: Favorites went 5-1 SU and ATS during Super Wild Card Weekend of the 2021-22 NFL playoffs. However, in the last two weeks, underdogs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.

The straight-up winner is 11-1 ATS in the postseason. The lone exception: The 49ers covering in their loss at Los Angeles.[/accordion]

The post Super Bowl Odds 2022: Tickets, Money Lean Toward Bengals Vs Rams appeared first on Props.

UFC 271 odds are on the board and getting attention for a big Saturday night card in Houston. For those who can’t wait until Super Bowl Sunday for hard hits — and don’t want to see penalty flags when such hits are delivered —  well, this should be your kind of night.

The main event at the Toyota Center is a rematch pitting middleweight champion Israel Adesanya against Robert Whittaker.

Nick Kalikas, MMA oddsmaker for Circa Sports, provided insights and intel on opening/current UFC 271 betting odds and action. Check back through Saturday evening for updates.

UFC 271 Odds

Odds via Circa Sports and updated as of 10 p.m. ET on Feb. 12.

Adesanya vs Whittaker Odds and Betting Action

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SATURDAY: With the main event on deck, Adesanya is a -275 chalk and Whittaker a +235 ‘dog at The SuperBook. “We are a few dimes out to Whittaker, but there is parlay exposure to Adesanya, and one limit bet on him would basically even out our position,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said. “I’m slightly disappointed in the volume, to be frank.”

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the five-bout main card gets underway, BetMGM Nevada has Adesanya -330/Whittaker +260, after opening at Adesanya -275/Whittaker +225. “Tickets are about 60% on Whittaker, money is about the opposite, 60% on Adesanya,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. “It’s not a big decision. Good two-way action. All these [main-card] fights are pretty heavily bet, but not big decisions.”

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: BetMGM opened Adesanya -275/Whittaker +200, and that’s where the prices sat this morning. However, the defending champion is now up to -300, with Whittaker a +240 underdog. Whittaker is actually taking 65% of tickets on tonight’s main event, but 57% of money is on Adesanya.

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Back in October 2019, which seems like forever ago thanks to the pandemic, Adesanya scored a third-round knockout of then-champion Whittaker in UFC 243. Since then, Adesanya (21-1) has gone 3-1 in four title bouts. Most recently, he posted a unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori at UFC 263 in June 2021.

Whittaker (24-5) rebounded from the Adesanya loss by winning his next three fights to earn another title shot. Whittaker last fought in April 2021, claiming a unanimous decision over Kelvin Gastelum while headlining a UFC Fight Night card.

Circa Sports opened this fight on Feb. 2 at Adesanya -265/Whittaker +225, then moved a nickel to -270/+230, and is now back at the opener.

“There hasn’t been any significant action yet, even though it’s an ultra-popular fight — a rematch, with Whittaker the former champ, and a high-stakes bout,” Kalikas said. “The line has been pretty steady. It just seems like the price is fair, not a lot of wiggle room. I expect on fight day, we’ll see some line movement, maybe some ‘dog action on Whittaker. I think people will respect him, and fans kind of want him to complete this comeback.

“We’ll probably need Adesanya, but not for a super-big decision. We’ll see more Adesanya action on parlays, more straight bets on Whittaker.”[/accordion]

Lewis vs Tuivasa Odds and Betting Action

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tonight’s co-main has seen very little movement on the UFC 271 odds board at BetMGM Nevada. Derrick Lewis opened -195 and is down to -190, with Tai Tuivasa a +160 underdog. “Again, really good two-way as far as the money is concerned, a few thousand more dollars on Lewis. Tickets are 2/1 in favor of Tuivasa,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Derrick Lewis opened as a -200 chalk at BetMGM, with Tai Tuivasa correspondingly a +165 ‘dog. Currently, that moneyline is down slightly to Lewis -190/Tuivasa +155. Early bettors definitely like the underdog price for tonight’s co-main event, with ticket count 2/1 and money 4/1 on Tuivasa.

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Derrick Lewis landed on Circa’s UFC 271 odds board as a -185 chalk Feb. 2, with Tai Tuivasa a +160 underdog. Lewis got as low as -165, and this heavyweight fight is currently priced at Lewis -173/Tuivasa +153.

“Obviously, we’re getting bet a little bit more on Tuivasa,” Kalikas said of early action. “Now, there’s some back-and-forth, respected action on both sides. At this ‘dog price, I expect more people to back Tuivasa. I expect to need Lewis when all is said and done.”[/accordion]

Cannonier vs Brunson Odds and Betting Action

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This fight has moved significantly at BetMGM Nevada, opening at Jared Cannonier -195/Derek Brunson +160 and now sitting at Cannonier -150/Brunson +125. “Money and tickets slightly favor the ‘dog Brunson, roughly 1.5/1 on both counts,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Jared Cannonier is a -165 favorite this afternoon at BetMGM, where the buyback on Derek Brunson is +135. This fight opened at Cannonier -175/Brunson +155 and this morning was at -160/+130. Brunson is nabbing a modest majority 53% of tickets, while 67% of money is on Cannonier.

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: In another middleweight clash, in the middle of the five-bout main card, Jared Cannonier opened a -185 favorite to Derek Brunson’s +160 underdog price at Circa.

“We’ve had some sharp play on this fight, for sure,” Kalikas said. “Early action on the ‘dog Brunson, then some buyback on Cannonier, and that was kind of respected action. But then we started getting multiple sharps betting the ‘dog side. We’re all the way down to -147 on Cannonier, +127 on Brunson. We got a flood of sharp money on Brunson, and we’re respecting that.

“I think the buyback will come on Cannonier, but not enough to overtake the Brunson side. We’re gonna need Cannonier on fight night.”

A little action apparently landed on the favorite late this evening, as the price moved to Cannonier -155/Brunson +135.[/accordion]

Other UFC 271 Odds and Betting Action

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Odds for the second fight on the five-bout main card have noticeably tightened at BetMGM. Renato Moicano opened as a -175 chalk to Alexander Hernandez’s +140 ‘dog price. Earlier today, the fight was at Moicano -160/Hernandez +130, and it’s now down to -150/+125. Ticket count is 3/1 and money 4/1 on the underdog Hernandez.

Moicano vs. Hernandez was supposed to be in the early prelims, but got bumped all the way up to the main card due to missed weights and a cancellation in other bouts on the card.

In the opening bout on the main card, Bobby Green is -150 and Nasrat Haqparast +125 in BetMGM’s UFC 271 odds market. That’s down slightly from the opener of Green -160/Haqparast +140. Haqparast is landing 54% of bets and 68% of money.

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: A battle between Maxim Grishin vs William Knight opens the four-bout preliminary card. And even though it’s down the ladder a bit, this light heavyweight contest has the attention of Kalikas and his customers. Grishin opened a -195 chalk and Knight a +170 ‘dog in Circa’s UFC 271 odds market.

“We have a significant amount of action on this one. It’s been a popular fight at the betting window,” Kalikas said. “There’s a mix of sharp and public action coming in on Knight, and we’ve dropped to Grishin -165/Knight +145. This is technique vs. power, with Griffin the technique fighter. People are respecting the power of Knight. Knight has been very popular as an underdog, one of the most popular underdogs on this card.

“I’m respecting both sides. I personally know sharps who are waiting to buy back on Grishin when the price is right. But we’ll probably need the favorite small.”[/accordion]

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A significant chunk of Super Bowl prop bets have been in the mix for years, often decades — countless tried-and-true props that bettors have come to expect.

But each year brings some new props joining the fray, offering a different spin on the Big Game, looking to attract another segment of casual/new bettors.

Then there are those truly unique props. You know, the ones that lead to this question: What the hell is that?

The Super Bowl Octopus prop certainly falls into that category. And it’s available for Sunday’s clash between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.

Prior to attending Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, California, Mitch Goldich, creator of the Octopus prop bet, told Props.com how this wager was born, and it’s underground cult-like following.

The Origins Of The Octopus

Back on Oct. 14, 2018, Goldich — an editor and writer for Sports Illustrated’s Monday Morning Quarterback — was doing what he typically does on a fall Sunday: watching a lot of NFL games. That included a rather nondescript meeting between Carolina and Washington, a game Washington led 17-0 on the way to a 23-17 victory.

But in defeat, the Panthers produced the most interesting sequence of plays. Carolina trailed 20-9 in the fourth quarter when Cam Newton hit Torrey Smith with a 3-yard TD pass, making it 20-15. Obviously, going for the 2-point conversion was the right move at that point, to cut the deficit to a field goal. The Panthers converted the 2-pointer, as Newton once again connected with Smith. So one player scored 8 points on one drive.

Goldich was intrigued, tweeting out:

“There should be a cool name for what Torrey Smith just did: Scoring a TD and then also scoring the 2-point conversion right afterward. What should we call this?”

A few hours later, Mike Wallace — a college buddy of Goldich’s — replied to the tweet with a one-word answer: Octopus.

“I try to give Mike credit whenever I can, because he came up with a great name,” Goldich said.

But it was Goldich who then threw himself into researching the Octopus. He wrote a timely piece in spring 2019, ahead of the 25th anniversary of the NFL adopting the 2-point conversion.

“That was [also] the first time I made the spreadsheet of every single Octopus ever. I listed the team with the most, the players with the most,” Goldich said. “Then, the first full weekend of the [2019] preseason, I tweeted out something like: ‘Don’t forget, if anyone sees an Octopus, let me know.’ And like 15 minutes later, a fourth-string running back for the Patriots did it, and we were off and running.”

Indeed, the unknown Nick Brossette scored on a 1-yard run late in the third quarter at Detroit. And of course, the analytics tell you to go for 2 when you’re up 26-0 in a preseason game. Brossette caught the 2-point pass from Jarrett Stidham, putting the Patriots ahead 28-0, and they ultimately won 31-3.

Super Bowl Octopus Prop Debuts

The 2019-20 postseason immediately provided another boost for the Octopus. On Wild Card Weekend, in Houston’s 22-19 home victory over Buffalo, Deshaun Watson had a 20-yard TD run, then ran in the 2-point conversion. It was the first playoff Octopus in six years.

A few weeks later, when the Kansas City Chiefs met the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl, the Octopus took a great leap — or a great swim, we suppose — forward. Caesars Sportsbook included the option in its Super Bowl props menu. You might say it was Octopus Prime. In the week leading up to the game, the prop blew up, creating huge liability.

Goldich was stunned to hear that the Super Bowl Octopus prop garnered so much attention in its first year on a betting board.

“I was at Super Bowl Media Day, and I had friends sending me texts and screenshots about the prop. And ESPN was talking about it on the Daily Wager, with a big illustrated octopus on the screen. That was really cool to see,” Goldich said.

With practically everybody on Yes at +1,200, Caesars had a six-figure decision on the prop, so the book very much needed No (-3,000) to deliver. And it did.

“For me, that was crazy to think people at Caesars are sweating this out as much as the coin toss or other [popular] prop bets,” Goldich said. “It started out as a fun, silly thing, and I’ve always been a fan of fun, silly things.”

Octopus Prop Extends Its Tentacles

Goldich continued writing his offseason prop feature ahead of the 2020-21 season, and of course tracking it all season long. And the 2020-21 playoffs really helped bolster the Octopus’ profile.

On Wild Card Weekend, Colts tight end Jack Doyle recorded an Octopus with a late TD catch/2-point reception in a 27-24 loss at Buffalo.

“That was one moment when I thought, ‘Wow, this is really taking off.’ I searched ‘Doyle’ and ‘octopus’ on Twitter, and a whole bunch of people were tweeting about it,” Goldich said.

One week later, in the Divisional Round, Rams running back Cam Akers converted arguably one of the best Octopuses (Octopi?) ever in a 32-18 loss at Green Bay.

Lined up in the Wildcat formation, Akers took the direct snap and ran for a 7-yard touchdown. Then on the 2-point attempt, QB Jared Goff threw to wideout Van Jefferson, who then lateraled to Akers, who ran it in. The old hook-and-lateral.

“I gave that my 2020-21 Octopus of the Year award. [Akers] and I even did an interview when he accepted the award,” Goldich said.

So it’s noteworthy that Akers will start in the Rams’ backfield in Sunday’s Super Bowl, which could lead to something very interesting — should he replicate his previous playoff feat.

“He did tell us that if he ever got another one, he’d do an Octopus celebration,” Goldich said.

Will The Octopus Prop Cash This Year?

Let’s be honest: There’s a reason Yes is +1,500 and No -2,600 on this prop at Circa Sports. The likelihood of catching a little lightning in a bottle, in the single most-important sporting event in America, is slim.

But it’s by no means out of the question. This season, there have been seven Octopus conversions. In total, the Octopus has occurred 169 times since the NFL installed the 2-point conversion in 1994. That includes six in the postseason — none this year, but three in the two years previous.

“It doesn’t pop up every week, but it’s enough during the season that you’re not gonna go a whole season without seeing it,” Goldich said. “I’d love to see a book offer it on Sundays in the regular season, as well: Will there be an Octopus today in any game?”

Perhaps for that to happen, the Octopus needs to hit on the biggest stage.

“There’s never been one in the Super Bowl. It would certainly raise its profile if it happened on Sunday and [bettors] actually cashed,” Goldich said. “If Al Michaels or Cris Collinsworth, or Joe Buck or Troy Aikman, are talking about it, that’s when we’ll know that it’s really caught on.

“It’s a story if the books have to pay out.”

The post Super Bowl Octopus Prop: How This Novelty Bet Came To Life appeared first on Props.