In this weekly feature, we analyze some of our other favorite golf props and DFS PGA picks for Rounds 2-4.

Early in the week, we may post some of our favorite winner plays, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3, and Round 4.

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Golf Props Today – Round 2/3/4 Picks

Every week, we examine Rounds 2, 3, and 4 from a DFS and betting perspective.

Baycurrent Classic – Round 4

We should be in for a great finish. Xander Schauffele and Max Greyserman are tied for the lead at -12, but there is a big group at -9 and others within striking distance too.

Leaders in strokes gained: tee to green through three rounds (via Data Golf):

• Xander Schauffele (+2.81)
• Michael Thorbjornsen (+2.60)
• Sahith Theegala (+2.36)
• Alex Noren (+2.29)
• Rico Hoey (+2.27)

Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from yesterday:

Sungjae Im (+6.56 Tee To Green, +2.48 Approach, -2.31 Putting)

Kaito Onishi (+2.97 Tee To Green, +1.80 Approach, -3.72 Putting)

A look at a few of the most popular PGA projections on the Underdog app at time of writing:

Baycurrent Classic – Round 3

Max Greyserman has raced out to a four-shot lead after two rounds at the Baycurrent Classic, with Xander Schauffele, Alex Noren and Alex Smalley all at -8.

Strokes gained: tee to green leaders after two rounds (Data Golf):

• Alex Noren (+4.07)
• Rico Hoey (+3.99)
• Sahith Theegala (+3.29)
• Alex Smalley (+3.01)
• Max Greyserman (+2.98)

Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting from yesterday:

Rico Hoey (+6.05 Tee To Green, +3.00 Approach, -5.23 Putting)

Byeong Hun An (+2.73 Tee To Green, +1.83 Approach, -2.90 Putting)

A look at a few of the most popular PGA projections on the Underdog app at time of writing:

Baycurrent Classic – Round 2

Yokohama Country Club showed some bite in the opening round. There is a trio of leaders at -4 heading into the second round at the Baycurrent Classic.

Here were the leaders in strokes gained: tee to green in Round 1 (Data Golf):

• Bud Cauley (+6.22)
• Nicolai Hojgaard (+4.79)
• Sahith Theegala (+4.13)
• Collin Morikawa (+3.95)
• Patrick Fishburn (+3.82)

Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting from yesterday:

Karl Vilips (+3.54 Tee To Green, +0.99 Approach, -4.71 Putting)

Collin Morikawa (+3.95 Tee To Green, +2.51 Approach, -2.06 Putting)

A look at a few of the most popular PGA projections on the Underdog app at time of writing:

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Sanderson Farms Championship – Round 4

It’s a two-shot lead for Garrick Higgo heading into the final round on Sunday.

Here are the top five in strokes gained: tee to green thus far (Data Golf):

Steven Fisk (+3.09)
Pierceson Coody (+2.65)
Doc Redman (+2.52)
Garrick Higgo (+2.35)
Thorbjorn Olesen (+2.30)

Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting from Round 3:

J.T. Poston (+3.24 Tee To Green, +0.88 Approach, -3.82 Putting)

Trey Mullinax (+4.84 Tee To Green, +3.34 Approach, -2.42 Putting)

Popular players for Round 4 PGA on Underdog:

Sanderson Farms Championship – Round 3

Garrick Higgo holds a one-shot lead at -13 after the first two rounds.

Here are the top five in strokes gained: tee to green thus far (Data Golf):

Steven Fisk (+3.67)
Michael Thorbjornsen (+2.83)
Garrick Higgo (+2.83)
David Ford (+2.48)
Max Homa (+2.45)

Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting from Round 2:

Sam Ryder (+1.84 Tee To Green, +2.69 Approach, -4.67 Putting)

Michael Thorbjornsen (+1.52 Tee To Green, +0.47 Approach, -3.35 Putting)

Max Homa (+1.48 Tee To Green, +1.37 Approach, -3.30 Putting)

Popular players for Round 3 PGA on Underdog:

Sanderson Farms Championship – Round 2

A group of four is out in the lead at -7 after the first round at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Here are the top five in strokes gained: tee to green thus far (Data Golf):

Kevin Yu (+4.90)
Thorbjorn Olesen (+4.80)
Michael Thorbjornsen (+4.15)
David Ford (+3.67)
Pierceson Coody (+3.67)

Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting from Round 1:

Hayden Buckley (+2.25 Tee To Green, +1.46 Approach, -2.81 Putting)

Steven Fisk (+3.20 Tee To Green, +1.31 Approach, -2.76 Putting)

Thorbjorn Olesen (+4.80 Tee To Green, +2.44 Approach, -2.36 Putting)

Popular players for Round 2 PGA on Underdog:

Our top leans for Round 2:

Thorbjorn Olesen LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes
Akshay Bhatia LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes

Good luck!

2025 Ryder Cup

Full content coming soon. We’ll be breaking down our top plays for each day of the event in this space.

In the meantime, be sure to check out our full 2025 Ryder Cup preview!

Here are some of the popular player projections on Underdog:

Procore Championship – Round 4

We should be in for a fun finish in California. Ben Griffin has the one-shot lead, but Jackson Koivun and Scottie Scheffler are right there in the mix among a host of other golfers.

Here are the leaders in strokes gained tee to green so far, via Data Golf:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.46)
Ben Griffin (+2.72)
Maverick McNealy (+2.68)
Jackson Koivun (+2.67)
Russell Henley (+2.63)

Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 3:

Brandt Snedeker (+3.94 Tee To Green, +2.51 Approach, -2.89 Putting)

Gary Woodland (+4.00 Tee To Green, +1.42 Approach, -1.95 Putting)

Michael Thorbjornsen (+3.24 Tee To Green, +1.74 Approach, -1.18 Putting)

Our top overall play for Round 4 at the Procore Championship:

Top Play: Russell Henley LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes (Underdog)

PGA Strategy – Golf Props & DFS Tips

Betting on golf is in many ways a completely different animal than normal head-to-head sports betting.

However, fundamentally it is the same baseline proposition: can we find expected value against the value offered by the marketplace?

The situation is skewed, because in golf win betting we are often dealing with tournament results and not head-to-head results, which give us tantalizing payouts and maddening near-misses on odds that are dozens to hundreds of times the multipliers of most other sports.

Something to keep in mind: just like in real tournament golf, patience and discipline and belief in your process are key, and one big event can change your entire season.

So, how do we find expected value in golf?

The Importance Of Data

Really simply, we want to find golfers who have a chance of playing better than it seems they are playing.

Buying a data subscription alone and just playing the numbers will NOT make you profitable. The advanced analytics are available to everyone, including oddsmakers.

The key is learning to understand why the data is what it is, is how we can dig into the details to find trends that are actionable.

Sites uses a strict formula to combine past results and recent results to create a projection, and it is the best overall formula anyone has ever made, but what we want to look for are golfers who can make a case that they don’t fit the exact model, and have value that isn’t being captured by projections.

So in layman’s terms, here are some really great ways you can find potential value in a golf tournament field:

Recent Form

Golfers who have a track record of playing very well, but have had some bad results lately that we expect them to bounce back from (if recent poor results are just due to poor putting alone, this is ideal, as putting is by far the most variable category in golf)

Young golfers whose true value is still increasing every week and hasn’t been captured properly by the modeling timelines that are used by Vegas and Data Golf, as well as being slow to catch the public’s eye.

Golfers who have been playing extraordinarily well lately, but historically aren’t that good, are not well captured by Vegas models.

For example, a golfer having a “breakout” year can be slow to pop in the industry models. This is an especially good situation if we can tie this performance increase to something tangible, such as a swing coach change, an offseason increase in driving distance, or another technique change or injury comeback situation.

In these cases, we want to put particular emphasis on driving and iron play, as these are less likely to be the result of random fluctuations in performance.

Course Fit

The last angle that can sometimes be used to get an edge is extreme course-fit outlier situations. The thing about mathematical models is that they can be weak in truly capturing extreme outliers.

On the PGA Tour, course fit week-to-week is much talked about and a very entertaining aspect of the game for fans and commentators, but it is generally very well accounted for by Vegas, and most tend to over-value these adjustments.

OVERALL FORM AND RATING IS ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN COURSE-FIT — a good fit for the course should always just be the icing on the cake for a good play.

One thing to look out for is the really extreme length outliers – the very longest and very shortest few courses each season, that truly limit a portion of the field from competing with their best weapons.

This happens in just a few events per year, but it does happen, and there you can find value in a true “specialist” in the field, such as guys who make their career through putting and putting alone, or an absolutely wild bomber who doesn’t gain many strokes through the rest of the bag.

Featured Image Credit: Imagn

The post Golf Props Today – Round 2/3/4 DFS & Betting Picks appeared first on Props.

Each week, we will analyze our favorite PGA Tour props and picks for the upcoming golf tournament, focusing on who we think will be the PGA first round leader of the event.

The first round leader sweat in golf is a fun one, so join us as we try to make some winning golf picks!

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PGA Tour First Round Leader – Props, Picks & Predictions

Below, we take a look at the most intriguing first round leader picks and bets for the upcoming PGA Tour tournament.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!

We’re back for another week of PGA Tour action after an interesting Ryder Cup finish.

The Sanderson Farms Championship doesn’t feature really any of the top players in the world, but that makes for some fantastic odds and a clear path for anyone to go low on Thursday.

First Round Leader Picks: Baycurrent Classic

This is the PGA Tour’s first time ever at Yokohama Country Club, which means we’re playing on a completely blank canvas where course history means absolutely.

The course is a Par 71, measuring 7,315 yards with a layout that’s going to separate the field fast – we’ve got just two par 5s, three par 3s, and 13 par 4s.

If you’re not elite at par 4 scoring, you’re toast.

Here are three FRL candidates at great odds. We’re going for some bombs this week since the field is so weak.

Kurt Kitayama (+3000)

Kitayama at 30-1 is a great price when you combine a fantastic three-month form with positive Thursday scoring history.

His 69.95 R1 average ranks #68 on tour – that’s 0.60 strokes better than tour average on Thursdays, which means he consistently starts tournaments better than half of the Tour.

Kurt has gained approach strokes in his last 10 tournaments, and the great results have followed. He also ranks 18th in Par 4 scoring.

Chris Gotterup (+2700)

Gotterup is a really nice value, and he ranks top half of the tour in Round 1 scoring.

While he’s below average in approach and putting, we’ll look for a golfer who excels from a different angle. Gotterup ranks 7th in SG: Off The Tee and 39th overall in Strokes Gained: Total.

That being said, his approach game has been much better in the second half of 2025, gaining strokes on the field in 9 of his last 11 tournaments.

Things are clicking, and Gotterup has a win and three more top-10 finishes since July. He ranks sixth Par 4 scoring.

Keith Mitchell (+6000)

I feel like I never get Mitchell right, but these odds are too good to pass up. Mitchell’s approach game has been hit or miss, and he hasn’t played well overall for four rounds.

The key there is “for four rounds,” as Mitchell somehow ranks second on Tour in Round 1 scoring in 2025.

He’s long off the tee, which could set up some short iron shots. That’s critical because there are so many Par 4 holes on this course. Mitchell ranks 10th on tour in Par 4 scoring.

PGA First Round Betting Strategy & Best Practices

When dealing with PGA Tour betting, there’s a lot more variance, risk/reward, long shots, and an aspect of a lottery-like ticket than we deal with in most weekly or daily match sports.

When dealing with “PGA First Round Leader bets” markets, we take that to an eleven!

The best we can hope to do is think of ourselves as buying “weighted lottery tickets” – hope to pick plays that have valid reasons that they might hit slightly more often than their stated odds, and rely on long-term volume for those hits to play out over the course of an entire season.

The first and most important thing is to make sure the player you are considering has OVERALL VALUE. There aren’t a lot of big angles to the first round market that can take an otherwise-mediocre play and turn them into a lean in the first round leader market.

In general, FRL picks should also be good value plays in general markets, usually meaning that regardless of their course fit or other factors, they have been outperforming or are otherwise undervalued by the oddsmakers or the public.

Weather

We’ll get to how to identify those players, and check whether a FRL play makes sense for them – but first: one of the biggest factors in getting an edge on first round leader plays is looking at the tee times / weather.

For most articles, the tee times aren’t usually out yet, but they can be found on Tuesday afternoons, usually.

The main things to look for are AM/PM tee time splits. All else being equal, morning scores can trend lower than afternoon scores. Wind usually picks up in the afternoon, but sometimes due to a storm front, it can be opposite, so check the local forecasts.

Very rarely, and even more difficult to predict, there can be an afternoon storm that, if the afternoon wave has to play through, can really hurt scores in the rain. But if they get pulled off and get to start on Friday morning in super soft conditions, it can be a huge advantage for R1 scoring.

This is extremely difficult to predict 24 hours in advance, as it requires perfect timing and intensity and duration of storm coverage.

The best strategy is to check to make sure AM/PM wind splits are neutral or favorable before firing, although anything can and does happen.

Weather and tee times aside, we are looking at a few key things to establish overall value, and then a few more to lean that player into a FRL play.

Recent Form

For overall value, the biggest factors are looking at recent form versus longterm form, and gleaning an edge.

For example, a player who is playing well recently but hasn’t garnered much or enough change in odds from Vegas or has simply had some bad luck on the greens but has been hitting it well in SG:APP and SG:OTT for several weeks is definitely a player to look into more.

On the flip side, if somebody has a great track record but hasn’t been up to form, look for news articles about things like a swing or coaching change, off-course life events (baby, marriage, etc) or an injury that might give some context to the slump.

See if you can identify a scenario where he is worth betting on being a bounce-back while his odds are lulling.

Course Fit

The next avenue is course fit. This is factored into the market to an extent, but the players who are in the top 5 or 10 most extreme outliers when it comes to driving stats or putting stats can still have an edge at courses that are setup dramatically longer or shorter than your average tour stop.

Generally for a FRL bet, we get longer odds on the best players and shorter odds on the bottom of the field.

For example, a favorite who is 10-1 to win could be 15-1 or 20-1 to be FRL and a guy who is 100-1 could be 60-1 or 70-1 to be FRL.

Vegas does the math here decently, following standard projection models and variance in play per-round, but when trying to squeak out all the edge we can, there can be players that stack up out of line with their overall odds.

There are opportunities to shop for an outlier line in the more volatile and lower-handle FRL market that can help turn a lean into a play.

Putting Variance

The thing that can really ice a FRL play is that putting is by far the highest variance stat in golf. Oftentimes the leader after one round will simply be the guy who made everything that day.

This could be a good ball striker who finally got all of his looks to go, but likely won’t keep that up, or a great putter who just delivered on his strength in the opening round.

But it gives a situational lean to guys who probably can’t keep that performance up for all four rounds – where they will likely get overtaken by a Scottie Scheffler or other well-rounded ball striker – but can have an outlier performance where they gain 4, 5, 6+ strokes chipping and putting in a single hot round to open the tournament.

Many players at this level can end up shooting something in the low 60s with a little luck.

This gives an advantage to otherwise mediocre players who are prone to having a high-variance putting day, which if you are interested in somebody, you can check to see if they have that kind of profile in their previous rounds, and go for some of the more volatile boom-or-bust players in the FRL market, for sure.

Keep in mind the concept of buying “weighted lottery tickets” and make sure to have an EXTRA solid edge in mind when chasing FRL markets – because there is more juice here overall due to the volatility – and with a little patience you can score a few big hits over the course of a season.

Remember the Ricky Bobby mantra “if you’re not first, you’re last!”, and don’t get discouraged if a guy you picked completely throws a dud out of the gates.

Just keep making informed decisions and keep firing. Golf is not just the most mental pro sport to play — it’s the most mental one to bet on as well.

Develop a good process, make small refinements, and trust in it!

The post PGA Tour First Round Leader Predictions & Best Bets appeared first on Props.

There’s no time to rest in the golf world, and we’re here to bring you the best PGA picks this week. Justin Carlucci brings you his model projections for the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club.

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Top PGA Picks This Week: Model Predictions

In this section, we’ll break down the top PGA picks this week based on meta-model projections, taking countless variables into consideration.

Included in the table:

• Top 10 golfers based on tons of data: emphasis on market odds/value, weekly criteria, course fit, history, dozens of important statistical categories, etc.
• Top 10 actual chance to win this week’s tournament, regardless of market odds
• Top 10 first round leader darts to throw

PGA Picks This Week – Top Golfers Analysis

Here’s some more on our PGA picks this week from the model:

META-MODEL TOP 3

1. Viktor Hovland (+3000) – Viktor checks every single systematic box for East Lake dominance. The guy has great history, current form, and his ball-striking profile is exactly what narrow fairways demand. But here’s the kicker – at +3000, you’re getting a former FedEx Cup champion at longshot odds. His iron play from 150-200 yards is tour-level elite, and that’s the money zone at East Lake.

2. Justin Thomas (+2500) – JT is a proven East Lake assassin getting disrespected by the market. His course history is awesome, and his ball-striking profile matches exactly what this venue rewards. He’s been inconsistent in 2025, but 25/1 is great value.

3. Collin Morikawa (+3000) – Here’s your classic East Lake archetype getting overlooked by the market. Morikawa is a pure iron player – exactly what wins on these narrow fairways with elevated greens. We know he’s a deadly striker, and at +3000, you’re getting a major champion who thrives on precision courses at serious value odds.

PURE WINNERS TOP 3

1. Rory McIlroy – When you’re looking for pure winners – guys who literally have the best chance to win regardless of odds – you start with the most complete players in the field – and Rory has typically been 1B to Scottie at 1A. Rory’s Masters breakthrough this year shows he’s arguably playing the best golf of his career, and his East Lake resume is absolutely ridiculous. The course rewards controlled aggression – exactly Rory’s wheelhouse.

2. Scottie Scheffler – From a pure talent perspective, Scottie is still the gold standard. His model metrics are perfect because he’s simply the most complete player in the world right now. Ball-striking, short game, putting, mental toughness – he’s elite in every category. The guy just doesn’t make mistakes, and that’s huge at a course where bogeys are costly.

3. Viktor Hovland – Making another appearance on the list – Viktor’s pure talent is undeniable – the iron play is elite, the course management is sophisticated, and his mental game at big events is proven. The model really likes him this week, and the odds are great.

FIRST ROUND LEADER HIGHLIGHTS

Check out our weekly first round leader article for more insight on Thursday golf betting!

The post PGA Picks This Week: TOUR Championship Model Predictions appeared first on Props.

Welcome to the Wyndham Championship 2025 picks and preview, where our PGA crew will dive into all of the golf research and offer their expert predictions for this week’s tournament!

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Wyndham Championship 2025 Picks & Preview

The PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship takes place this week at Sedgefield Country Club. This event marks the end of the regular season, which provides one of the most interesting fields of the year.

With the advent of the FedEx Cup playoffs, which start next week with the top 70 in action, the Wyndham has become the last hurrah for golfers trying to save their season or preserve it with a narrow playoff berth.

It also means anyone who is feeling pretty secure with their game is going to take advantage of a rare week off before a busy entry into fall for Tour golfers.

This combination makes for a field that isn’t top-heavy at all, with none of the top players showing up, but it is actually quite deep, with basically EVERYBODY around the 70th marker opting in to the action.

With nobody sitting this one out, there aren’t many household names, but this is a week for the real PGA Tour nerds to flourish, watching a bunch of very capable midrange guys battle it out for a playoff spot. It’s almost like a play-in tournament for the last few playoff spots.

Course Layout and Factors

The course features one of the oldest designs on Tour, and also one of the most distinct. It’s everything you’d expect from a 100-plus-year-old course. It’s short, narrow, and has small greens.

Even though the course was remodeled and lengthened in 2007, it’s still one of the shortest on Tour at Par 70 and 7,100 yards.

Wyndham Championship Preview: Winners, Trends, & History

Players hit less-than-driver off the tee here nearly 50% of the time, severely hampering the advantage for most of the elite Tour players, and any other ordinary bombers who may be in the mix this time of year.

Furthermore, accuracy is rewarded not just because of narrow tree-lined fairways, but because the Bermuda rough is very prone to fliers, and it is very hard to hold greens at Sedgefield out of the rough.

The greens are sloped very severely in some cases, and when the tour ramps them up to 12+ stimp, some of the pin positions become almost unplayable if you are behind the hole.

All of this to say that Sedgefield is basically the ultimate placement-player opportunity on tour, which Aaron Rai won in very fitting fashion last year, as the course plays directly to his strengths.

Wyndham Championship 2025 Picks

Let’s find a few picks who fit the bill this week.

• Aaron Rai

Rai doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit coming into this year’s edition. Arguably playing better golf now than he was last year, he has one of the largest boosts for course fit you will ever see on Datagolf.

While he is rated the 8th-best golfer in the field on a neutral site, the unique tee shot skew at Sedgefield puts him squarely amongst the favorites, if not the favorite to win. While he’s still available at +2800, he definitely has positive expected value. He’s one of my favorite Wyndham Championship 2025 picks.

• Joel Dahmen

The other guy that is worth continued riding here is Dahmen, who is still interestingly flourishing with the weight of Geno Bonnelli off his shoulders, and he comes up on yet another course that rewards driving accurately and accurate short iron play.

While putting is important here, as the winner usually ends up in the -20s, it is a place that is kind of difficult for everyone to putt. Joel putted very well in both of the last two tournaments, making a run at a top 5 before fading last week.

Once again, the best line/angle here is a top 5 from Dahmen, if you can still find +4000 or better.

Odds To Win at Sedgefield:

Below are FanDuel’s current top odds to win the Wyndham Championship:

• Matt Fitzpatrick +2000
• Aaron Rai +2200
• Ben Griffin +2500
• Keegan Bradley +2500
• Robert MacIntyre +3000
• Jordan Spieth +3300
• Hideki Matsuyama +3300
• Akshay Bhatia +3500
• Si Woo Kim +3500
• Lucas Glover +3500
• Jake Knapp +4000
• Kurt Kitayama +4500
• Harry Hall +4500

The post PGA Betting: Wyndham Championship Course Fit Preview & Odds (2025) appeared first on Props.

Welcome to the 3M Open preview, where our PGA crew will dive into all of the golf research and offer their expert predictions for this week’s tournament!

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3M Open Preview

The 3M Championship feels like it was just introduced yesterday, as it enters its seventh year at TPC Twin Cities.

This gives us a pretty good chance of knowing what to expect, but like most TOUR courses, the setup isn’t completely one-dimensional. A lot of prognosticators have pointed out that length plays here – the course is long on paper at more than 7,400 yards.

Course Layout and Factors

With six years of competitive PGA TOUR rounds logged, there’s a very strong indicator that this course plays to accuracy over distance off the tee.

The thing is, even with generous fairways, the penalty for leaving those fairways is often cruel, as who would build a signature course in Minnesota without featuring a ton of water hazards? Rinsed balls off the tee are a major factor, and even if you don’t, the rough doesn’t play exactly easy.

Of course, it’s still a great opportunity for a long hitter to push their driver and roll the dice for a hot week and go super low, but overall, the name of the game here is keeping the ball in play, even if it leaves you going to extra-generous and puttable greens with a long iron. You can play this course from 175-200 yards on approach and still score.

The greens are fairly basic and become quite easy to putt under tournament conditions, as most northern climate courses stay fairly pure (think: not getting chewed on 350+ days per year like Southern California or Florida tracks), and bentgrass is probably the favored putting surface for true rolls.

This leaves a lot of long and midrange makeable putts and easy 2-putts, which all play into what the data is telling us.

3M Open Preview: Winners, Scores, Trends & History

Notable past champions include Jhonattan Vegas, Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, and Matthew Wolff.

In fields like this, where many elite players are sitting out due to the schedule, it opens the door for a really talented player to win, even if the course doesn’t perfectly suit them.

At the end of the day, we are going to adjust our projections to take the edge from long hitters and give the most accurate guys on tour a 5-10% boost. However, it’s not going to make a player twice as good or twice as bad as they normally are because there’s a decent amount of water in play off the tee.

This is a place where poor putters thrive. No disrespect to Vegas, Finau, Champ, and others … but let’s just say that the real overlooked theme here might be that “this is a course that anybody can putt well on” instead of “this is a bombers’ course.”

3M Open Preview: Expert Picks

Here’s the basic recipe: drive it well, hit your irons well, and putt it well. HA! Seriously though, we are probably looking for good ball strikers regardless of length, and a juicy opportunity for one of our favorite subsects to gamble on: guys who normally putt like crap.

We are looking for them to have a once-a-month or once-a-season type performance on some easy greens to make a season-defining finish.

Let’s dive into the betting picks of our 3M Open preview.

Joel Dahmen

He basically fits the above description to a “T” … guy can’t putt for crap, and is almost always a solid ball striker, and very accurate off the tee, but he’s lacking a little distance. He’s also in an interesting situation after the much-debated split from his longtime caddie Geno.

On paper, in this case, it can’t really do anything but help him (they’d missed countless cuts together in a row leading into this), and he quickly got into contention before settling to T17 last week at the Barracuda.

No advanced stats for the stableford format event from last week, but Dahmen has a distinct pattern, and maybe something will break loose with the change. Sometimes, it really is that fickle – golfers just need to mentally get a fresh look at a game they’ve played every day for decades.

In any case, it’s a great setup, on paper, for him to do something a little better than his 250/1 odds.. The sweet spot, however, is probably the “top 5” line (at DraftKings) if you can get it before it moves at +4500, which is well out of line with the market (+3000 WA).

Akshay Bhatia

He’s a guy we’ve always tracked as he’s had flashes of brilliance but kind of fades away at times, and has played to a lot of different strengths early in his development, so it’s kind of hard to put him in a box and project him. 

Early in his career, he was extremely long. He lost his card, went back to the KFT, and he is definitely not bombing it like that anymore. In 2024, he wasn’t gaining much off the tee but was flashing some really dominant putting performances, and he won that way.

The thing is, this year (and especially this summer), he has been one of the more dominant iron players, leading this week’s field by far in approach play over the past 10 events, give or take. 

That certainly plays here. He should be good at keeping it in play off the tee, and in order to go low, it’s a matter of strong iron play, as this isn’t a wedging contest at 7,400 yards. Most of all, though, he’s just a player that we still see on an upward career arc.

He kind of came on TOUR “too soon” at 23 years old, which is almost like a rookie out of college, but he is playing his sixth year of professional golf. There’s more wins coming from this guy, and in this field with this course, +4000 on DK is attainable.

TPC Twin Cities: Odds To Win

Below are FanDuel’s current odds to win the 3M Open:

• Chris Gotterup +1800
• Sam Burns +1800
• Maverick McNealy +2000
• Wyndham Clark +2500
• Max Greyserman +2800
• Si Woo Kim +2900
• Taylor Pendrith +3300
• Jake Knapp +3400
• Tony Finau +3500
• Rickie Fowler +3500
• Akshay Bhatia +3500
• Michael Thorbjornsen +3500
• Kurt Kitayama +4000
• Davis Thompson +4500
• Adam Scott +4500
• Max Homa +4500
• Kevin Yu +5000
• Cameron Champ +5000
• Luke Clanton +5000
• Sungjae Im +5000
• Emiliano Grillo +5000
• Keith Mitchell +5500
• Jesper Svensson +6000
• Matt Wallace +6000
• Alex Smalley +6000
• Andrew Putnam +6000
• Rico Hoey +6000
• Vince Whaley +6500
• Niklas Norgaard +6500
• Haotong Li +6500
• Sam Stevens +7000
• Patrick Fishburn +7000
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7000
• Jhonattan Vegas +7500
• Lee Hodges +7500
• Alex Noren +7500
• Pierceson Coody +7500
• Jacob Bridgeman +7500
• Tom Hoge +8000
• Taylor Moore +8000
• Beau Hossler +8000
• Kevin Roy +8000
• Matti Schmid +8000
• Doug Ghim +8000
• Matt McCarty +9000
• Sahith Theegala +9000

The post PGA Betting: 3M Open Course Fit Preview & Odds (2025) appeared first on Props.

The NFL season may be coming to a close soon, but golf interest is about to heat up, and it looks like two of the big boys in the industry are preparing for the increased attention.

In case you missed it, leading DFS pick’em operators Underdog and PrizePicks have recently added TMRW Golf League (TGL) projections to their products.

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TMRW Golf League, a mix of traditional and simulated indoor golf, will be televised on ESPN during primetime hours. The new venture is backed by Tiger Woods and just began its inaugural season.

Underdog and PrizePicks posted projections for Tuesday, January 21’s action, which will feature New York GC (Rickie Fowler, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele) up against Atlanta Drive GC (Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover).

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The post Underdog & PrizePicks Add TMRW Golf League Projections appeared first on Props.

Welcome to The Open Championship preview! We’re already in the heart of July, and it’s time to break down one of golf’s most prestigious majors. The tournament is back for its 153rd edition, and the anticipation continues to build as we inch closer to tee time.

Royal Portrush, Dunluce Links, plays host to this year’s championship, as it did in both 1951 and 2019.

Editor’s Note: We’ll also have you covered for more Open Championship First Round Leader bets!

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The Open Championship Preview

The Open Championship plays at par 71 and over 7,300 yards. Dunluce Links is a beautiful course that offers an extremely high degree of difficulty for the tournament field.

British Open Expert Picks

Jon Rahm

• To Win: +1200
• Top 10: +140
• FRL: +1400

I hate the number, but it’s justified. Rahm is a guy who can grind it out under any circumstance and any weather condition. He’s finished top 10 or better in 12 of his 14 appearances this season between the LIV and a few TOUR majors.

He’s finished top 10 in three of his last four majors and T7 or better in his last two Open appearances. I like betting on him to win more than FRL (but I’ll still add it to the card), as he can rely on his ability to hang around and scramble better than most of the field if necessary. It’s hard to not envision Rahm being in the mix on Sunday.

Tommy Fleetwood

• To Win: +2800
• Top 10: +250
• FRL: +3500

Fleetwood finally winning a major would be the weirdest event of all time, right? The golf world would collectively exhale, as one of the game’s greatest players since 2010-ish, who has yet to win a major, could finally get this gigantic burden off his back. We’ve seen some really weird stuff over the past five years. Heck, we’ve been through a pandemic. In fact, I had to buy toilet paper from Japan once, which showed up at my doorstep seven months later during that strange 2020 year. That certainly was not on my BINGO card. By the way, it was terrible and I would not recommend it.

Anyway, that’s why I’m willing to say pretty much anything is possible. His game sets up unbelievably well for this course – he can putt, his approach game is nails, he’s fantastic around the green, and he’s accurate off the tee. That being said, his form is a little suspect, but he finished T17 last week in the tune-up, and he had that T2 at the 2023 Open. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again. While I’m a little crazy, luckily, I haven’t bet on Fleetwood to win in a really long time. Let’s get weird.

Viktor Hovland

• To Win: +3000
• Top 10: +340
• FRL: +4000

This one is pretty simple. He’s one of the best ball strikers (and sometimes THE BEST) on TOUR. I mean, when he’s on, he’s just throwing lawn darts at the pin. Hovland is an above-average putter, and he is accurate enough off the tee. Hovland has been in much better form after a down winter/spring, and his last four Open appearances are CUT, T13, T4, T12, respectively. He’s finished top 10 in five of his last 12 majors

Robert Macintyre

• To Win: +4000
• Top 10: +360
• FRL: +4000

Bobby Mac is an underrated all-around player. He is above average in pretty much every major metric. He owns two T8 finishes or better at The Open dating back to 2018, and he finished runner-up at this year’s U.S. Open, so I’m not worried about pedigree. Bobby has gained approach strokes in eight of his last nine appearances, around-the-green strokes in his last four, and he is generally an accurate driver off the tee.

Sepp Straka

• To Win: +5000
• Top 10: +500
• FRL: +5000

Straka is playing some of the best golf over the past couple of seasons, and that’s especially true in 2025. According to Datagolf, he’s only lost accuracy on his drives in two tournaments dating back to August 2024. He’s one of the best ball strikers on TOUR, losing approach strokes in just three tournaments in the same time frame. That’s elite stuff.

Straka is not long off the tee, and he’s not great around the green. However, length shouldn’t matter, and if his approach game is on, he won’t have to rely on cleaning up around the greens. His last three Open results are T22, 2, and MC.

Russell Henley

• To Win: +6500
• Top 10: +500
• FRL: +5500

Henley really fits the bill here, especially at a gigantic price. He’s lost approach strokes in a tournament just twice since last April, and he’s one of the best putters, elite around the greens, and one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on TOUR. Henley has three top 10 finishes across his last five majors played. I’m scratching my head at these odds, but the data and recent major history are too good. Plus, he’s in excellent form.

Justin Rose

• To Win: +8000
• Top 10: +650
• FRL: +5500

And we’re deep into the long shots. Rose had a heartbreaker at the Master’s when Rory completed his emotional slam, was understandably not great for a few weeks, and then popped back off at the Scottish while shooting very low last Sunday. You can do worse than 80/1 on Rose this week. Truthfully, he’s extremely inconsistent and his metrics are all over the place, but he owns a pair of T2 finishes or better across his last five Open appearances.

In fact, Rose has finished T6 or better in three of his last four major appearances. Rose is big-game hunting. At this point, it could be a mental thing, and he may have a little extra for such a massive tournament. He has just one major under his belt (2013), but I’m sprinkling in some lunch money.

Course Layout and Factors

There are plenty of deep bunkers and unforgiving rough, which will require pinpoint precision and accuracy. But golfers won’t just be able to plot around the course.

Unexpected conditions and wind gusts will challenge even the world’s best scramblers, while mental toughness and resilience will be keys to success.

The course was originally designed by Harry Colt, but it underwent many renovations before The Open in 2019. Some of the changes included:

• Five new greens
• Eight new tee boxes
• 10 new bunkers
• Two new holes

Hole No. 16 is also known as “Calamity Corner,” which might be one of the toughest par-3 layouts in the world. The layout is right near the coast, so golfers have to do battle with a ton of wind on this hole, regardless of tee time.

Weather conditions are almost always a factor, and perhaps “links” experience is a bonus. It’s important to check the forecast for The Open up until tee time to see if golfers in either wave have an advantage.

THE OPEN Championship: Winners, Scores, Trends & History

Harry Vardon (6 career Open wins), Tom Watson (5), and Peter Thomson (5) own the most Open victories. Xander Schauffele is the returning champion, while Brian Harman won in 2023, and Cameron Smith did so in 2022.

• Winning scores have ranged from -8 to -20 under par, dating back to 2014. The last Open Champion to be over par for the tournament was Padraig Harrington in 2008 (+3).
• Schauffele, Harman, and Smith each finished T33 or better in the previous year’s Open before their respective victories
• Across the last 20 years, Collin Morikawa was the only winner during his Open debut

The Open Championship Odds

Shane Lowry won his first major championship at Royal Portrush in 2019. Lowry might be the most stereotypical “links” golfer on TOUR, but he’s also played consistently great golf over the past five or six years. The latest betting odds are below, via FanDuel Sportsbook:

Top Favorites

• Scottie Scheffler – +360
• Rory McIlroy – +850
• Xander Schauffele – +1800

Strong Contenders

• Tommy Fleetwood – +2200
• Collin Morikawa – +2500
• Robert MacIntyre – +3000
• Ludvig Åberg – +3000
• Matt Fitzpatrick – +3400
• Justin Thomas – +3500

Mid-Range Options

• Sam Burns – +4000
• Viktor Hovland – +4000
• Corey Conners – +4500
• Sepp Straka – +5000
• Adam Scott – +5500
• J.J. Spaun – +6000

Value Picks

• Aaron Rai – +6500
• Harris English – +6500
• Ryan Fox – +6500
• Wyndham Clark – +7000
• Harry Hall – +7000
• Rasmus Højgaard – +7500
• Taylor Pendrith – +7500

Long Shots

• Tom Kim – +8000
• Si Woo Kim – +8000
• Maverick McNealy – +8000
• Nick Taylor – +9000
• Daniel Berger – +9000
• Justin Rose – +9000
• Thomas Detry – +9000
• Alex Noren – +9000
• Chris Gotterup – +9000
• Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen – +9000
• Max Greyserman – +9000

Deep Value

• Denny McCarthy – +10000
• Byeong Hun An – +10000
• Sungjae Im – +10000
• Brian Harman – +10000
• Nicolai Højgaard – +10000
• Jake Knapp – +10000

The post The Open Championship Preview & Best Bets (2025) appeared first on Props.

If you’re looking for 2025 US Open props, odds, and best bets, you’re in the right place!

The 125th US Open will be at Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania from June 12-15, marking Oakmont’s 10th time hosting the tournament, which is three more times than any other club.

As expected, the tournament field is very strong, and there are plenty of betting narratives after Rory McIlroy won the Masters and Scottie Scheffler took home the PGA Championship.

Best US Open Props and Picks Today (2025)

Let’s dive into some of my favorite US Open props and picks for the upcoming tournament at Oakmont!

Corey Conners Top 20 Finish

This course is going to be a grind, but Conners is playing some of the best golf of his career at just the right time. Oakmont demands a lot out of a golfer, but accuracy might be the most critical trait to have.

Conners ranks 17th on TOUR in Good Drives, and he’s one of the best iron players in the world. He gained approach strokes in 23 of his last 25 tournaments over the last calendar year.

The knock on Conners used to be his putting, and suddenly, he’s only lost strokes on the green in eight tournaments in the last year. Conners has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his last 10 tournaments, and he seems slightly mispriced. He’s one of the most consistent golfers in the world right now, and I love the price on BetMGM.

Where to play: Corey Conners Top 20 Finish | +188, BetMGM

Jordan L. Smith To Make The Cut

Every now and then, Mr. Smith makes his appearance in a big tournament in America. Smith has played 11 tournaments in 2025 (10 on the Euro Tour), missing the cut twice and withdrawing once. Mixed results, but he also sprinkled three top-10 finishes in the mix.

Smith’s greatest strength is driving accuracy, and he’s borderline elite in that category. He has been deemed accurate (or neutral) off the tee by Data Golf in every tournament he’s played since Sept. 2024. He has historically gained strokes on approach, and he has a little bit of distance as well; he’s not just a total plotter. 

Smith isn’t great around the green, so let’s hope his accuracy is elite for another week, and his approach game is good enough. I think he slides through to the weekend.

Where to play: Jordan L. Smith To Make The Cut | -108, FanDuel

US Open 3-Ball Matchup Props and Picks

Let’s take a look at a couple of matchups for Thursday’s US Open action.

Patrick Cantlay vs. Si Woo Kim and Lucas Glover

Cantlay is grouped with Si Woo Kim and Lucas Glover on Thursday. I like the spot for Cantlay, whose approach game has been on fire in 2025. He’s also gained OTT strokes in his last seven appearances.

Where to play: Patrick Cantlay 3-Ball Winner | +125, BetMGM

Akshay Bhatia vs. Robert MacIntyre and Matt McCarty

I think MacIntyre’s skill set certainly fits the bill here at Oakmont, but I like Bhatia a bit more. He’s another guy whose elite ball striking should negate his lack of around-the-green game. Bhatia is one of the elite putters on TOUR, which gives me confidence in him to get the job done in this matchup.

Where to play: Akshay Bhatia 3-Ball Winner | +170, BetMGM

2025 US Open Odds

*Top Outright Winner Odds – as of June 9 via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler +280
• Bryson DeChambeau +700
• Rory McIlroy +1100
• Jon Rahm +1200
• Xander Schauffele +2200
• Collin Morikawa +2500
• Ludvig Aberg +3000

Oakmont Country Club Details

Oakmont Country Club is well over a century old, and the course is notorious for the Pennsylvania Turnpike separating seven holes (2-8) from the rest of the course. Oakmont is one of the toughest courses in the world and has an extremely demanding layout. Oakmont has a reputation for testing even the world’s best players with its fast greens, challenging rough, and strategic bunker layout.

Last 10 Major Championship Winners

• 2025 PGA Championship – Scottie Scheffler
• 2025 Masters – Rory McIlroy
• 2024 Open Championship – Xander Schauffele
• 2024 U.S. Open – Bryson DeChambeau
• 2024 PGA Championship – Xander Schauffele
• 2024 Masters – Scottie Scheffler
• 2023 Open Championship – Brian Harman
• 2023 U.S. Open – Wyndham Clark
• 2023 PGA Championship – Brooks Koepka
• 2023 Masters – Masters Hideki Matsuyama

Types of US Open Prop Bets

• Over/Under Total Score
• Top Finishes
• First Round Leader
• Make or Miss the Cut
• Head-to-Head Matchups

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Sinking an uncomfortable amount of money into DraftKings’ $10 Masters Milly Maker: Now that’s a tradition unlike any other.

Here’s the thing: I love DFS, always have, always will. I love the daily puzzle of it all. I honestly — this is not a bit — believe it helps keep my mind sharp as I graduate from “middle aged dude” to “still technically a middle aged dude but holy smokes we can see whatever comes after ‘middle age’ on the horizon, and yes, we know it’s called ‘senior citizen’ but shut up, we’re still a good 25 (editor’s note: 12) years away from that.”

My DFS diet is robust: NFL, obviously. MLB, basically every day through NFL kickoff. NBA, basically every day through MLB first pitch. I’m toying with MMA every week, NASCAR when the mood strikes, and if you think I’m not all over the UFL, you’re crazy.

I am, throughout my long and meh-illustrious DFS career, a profitable player. So that’s nice.

I also play golf near-weekly. I am, throughout this segment of my career, quite possibly the worst DFS player in history. I am terrible at it. Almost statistically inconceivable.

To be fair, I don’t know jack diddly about the game. While I rely on my own wits for MLB, NFL, and NBA and use experts, analysts, and the like as backup, I am wholly dependent on experts and analysts for my PGA DFS play. So maybe I’m not a bad PGA DFS player, just a stupid one for blindly following what others think.

Of course, I will not stop doing this, because — I’m told — the best DFS sweat in the world is the golf sweat. I wouldn’t know, as I have never spent a late Sunday afternoon with a few hundred grand on the line, but yep, I’m told it’s a fun way to spend the day.

As such, I will be attempting to win $1 million this weekend, $10 at a time. As I write this on Monday afternoon, I have two entries in. I’ve promised myself I will cap my entries at five, but who are we kidding? I’m good for a dozen, easy, maybe more if I connect on an MLB slate or two leading up to lock.

My plan to win a million bucks? Same as always. Build some lineups based on the best advice — both free and paid — I come across and hope for the best. 

As far as plans go, this one is far from foolproof, but all I want is to hope for a sweat. Get me one lousy lineup with all six players through and I’ll be happy.

And, even better, if I happen to beat out the other 480,000-odd lineups, I get to position myself as a PGA DFS expert. Obviously. 

I’m fading Scottie. LFG!

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I had a dozen entries into Underdog’s “The Scramble,” a 28-event, seven-month PGA Tour best ball tournament.

First (of four) rounds ended Sunday, and I got five of my 12 entries through to the next round, easily beating the expected two out of 12 (more on this in a bit).

One of the contests I won, I won by the narrowest of margins.

I scored 5002.10 points to win.

Second place scored … 5001.60.

I won by a half-point. I guess I just wanted it more, who can say.

Obviously – obviously! – luck enters the chat when you win anything, nevermind by less than a point. We see it all the time in regular DFS, where the difference between a million-dollar winner and a $100,000 winner is often as small as the same half-point.

But my goodness – a half-point out of 5000+ points is … maddening. I won by .01%.

A game of inches. pic.twitter.com/X9sxABX4VR

— Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) February 17, 2025

Some perspective: If this were a 100-meter sprint, I would’ve won by one centimeter.

If this were a race that took an hour, I won by .36 seconds.

If this were a marathon, I would’ve won by 14 feet.

More comparisons? Yes, because I am enjoying this.

I weigh about 200 pounds. If I lost .02 pounds – roughly the weight of two nickels – that would be the same percentage difference.

If this contest were a gallon of gas, I won by less than a drop.

If this were a normal 2,000 calorie diet, I won by half of an M&M.

But let’s get bigger. In fact, let’s get – literally – galaxy brain on this.

The age of the universe is 13.8 billion years. I won by 1.38 million years, which sounds like a lot, but when you crunch the numbers, I won by one day – assuming the contest took 27 years.

Jupiter’s Great Red Spot is 10,000 miles wide – I won by a mile.

Earth’s orbital velocity is 67,000 miles; I won by how fast a person is going when they are jogging.

As a result of all this, if I win the tournament – it’s $50K to first – I’d like to offer the person I bested, MBruno296 the same .01% in prize money, which comes out to … oh man, it’s only $5. Tell you what, I’ll be a sport about it and throw you $100. Reach out to me if I win.

And, if I win, I probably owe Pat Mayo a few bucks, as I had no intention of drafting any teams in this contest until I saw a Twitter post of his that mentioned how people were drafting for this contest all wrong. Mayo then listed his rankings, which I followed to a T.

https://t.co/5w3axfpMbR pic.twitter.com/Krfqgmw88q

— Pat Mayo (@ThePME) February 17, 2025

As a result, I had my finest best ball first round in history. 

Now all I need to do is win Round 2. And Round 3. And Round 4. There are 9,396 people left in the tournament, which means …

… which means I have a – wait for it – yes, a .01% chance of winning the whole thing.

Math, amirte?

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