See more\u2026<\/button>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n\n\nUFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Props<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Looking for the best UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for this event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s outline the best UFC props for December 6! <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n Merab Dvalishvili (21-4) will put his bantamweight title on the line for the fourth time when he headlines UFC 323 in a highly anticipated rematch against No. 2-ranked contender Petr Yan (19-5).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These two previously met at UFC Fight Night 221 in March 2023, where Dvalishvili delivered a dominant performance by outlanding Yan 147-75 in significant strikes and scoring 11 takedowns en route to a unanimous decision sweep on all three judges\u2019 scorecards. That win marked a turning point in Dvalishvili\u2019s campaign toward championship gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since that first clash, the Georgian standout has remained undefeated and captured the undisputed title at UFC 306 on September 14, 2024, by defeating Sean O\u2019Malley via unanimous decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He has already logged three successful defenses this calendar year, including a rematch win over O\u2019Malley at UFC 316 on June 7, and a tactical clinic against Cory Sandhagen at UFC 320 on October 4. During this historic run, Dvalishvili has not only amassed a UFC bantamweight record 13-fight winning streak, but also set the all-time UFC record for most career takedowns, now sitting at 117.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yan, meanwhile, has refused to fade from contention. The former champion has never been finished in his professional career and battled his way back into title contention with notable wins over Yadong Song, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Marcus McGhee. His resilience, championship pedigree, and technical boxing base continue to make him one of the most dangerous threats at 135 pounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With the rivalry renewed, the stage is set for a high-stakes rematch between two of the most accomplished bantamweights of this era, one chasing legacy, the other redemption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fighter Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n Dvalishvili enters the rematch in peak form, riding a record-setting 13-fight winning streak and having successfully defended his UFC bantamweight title three times in 2025 alone. His output and pace are elite; in the first fight against his current challenger, he landed 147 significant strikes and secured 11 takedowns in a lopsided unanimous decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since then, he\u2019s improved his control time and cardio management, evident in the wins over O\u2019Malley (twice) and Sandhagen, each of which showcased his ability to smother elite strikers without fading. His historic total of 117 career takedowns reinforces just how relentless his pressure can be, making him one of the most dominant wrestlers in any weight class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, Dvalishvili\u2019s approach can become predictable, relying heavily on chain wrestling and cage pressure without offering much variety on the feet. His striking, though high in volume, lacks knockout power and leaves him vulnerable in extended exchanges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
If an opponent can manage distance and threaten with counters\u2026especially early, he becomes far more beatable. His durability has held up, but his lack of finishing ability could be an issue if caught behind on the scorecards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yan, despite dropping the first meeting decisively, remains one of the most technically sound boxers in the bantamweight division. He\u2019s never been finished and as mentioned before boasts wins over Song, McGhee, and former flyweight champion Figueiredo, showing his ability to adapt to diverse styles. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
His patience and timing allow him to capitalize when opponents slow down or overextend. Against volume-heavy opponents, he often surges late in fights, something that can be dangerous in a five-round setting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet, Yan has struggled against high-paced wrestlers and smothering top pressure. He was taken down 11 times in their first meeting and spent large portions of that fight defending rather than dictating the pace. While his takedown defense has improved, he still tends to start slow and give away early rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a liability against a grinder who averages double-digit attempts across 25 minutes. If Yan can\u2019t hurt his opponent early or threaten with submission attempts or sweeps off his back, he risks falling behind again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dvalishvili is projected to repeat his success in the rematch. Expect him to overwhelm with pressure, rack up control time and takedowns, and outwork his opponent over five rounds en route to another clear decision victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pick: <\/strong>The fight will go the distancePick: <\/strong>Merab Dvalishvili by points<\/p>\n\n\n\nUFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n The UFC props and betting landscape have evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you\u2019re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here\u2019s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor \u2014 from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nSignificant strikes landed (O\/U)<\/li>\n\n\n\n Takedowns landed (O\/U)<\/li>\n\n\n\n Submission attempts<\/li>\n\n\n\n Fight to end in a specific method (KO\/TKO, SUB, DEC)<\/li>\n\n\n\n Round-by-round performance props<\/li>\n\n\n\n Fantasy points (on DFS sites)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nDifferent books offer different lines, so line shopping is key \u2014 especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Understand Fighter Archetypes<\/h4>\n\n\n\n A fighter\u2019s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nVolume Strikers:<\/strong> Think Max Holloway, Sean O\u2019Malley \u2014 these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.<\/li>\n\n\n\nWrestle-Heavy Grapplers:<\/strong> Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.<\/li>\n\n\n\nSubmission Specialists:<\/strong> Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nMatchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles \u2014 for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key Stats to Track<\/h4>\n\n\n\n Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)<\/li>\n\n\n\n Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy\/Defense<\/li>\n\n\n\n Submission Attempt Rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed<\/li>\n\n\n\n Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights<\/li>\n\n\n\n Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nUse sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dig Into Fight Context<\/h4>\n\n\n\n Props aren\u2019t just about the fighter \u2014 the opponent and circumstances are just as important:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nShort Notice Replacements:<\/strong> Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.<\/li>\n\n\n\nHigh Altitude:<\/strong> Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.<\/li>\n\n\n\nJudges and Cage Size:<\/strong> Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nAlso consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Watch the Tape \u2014 Don\u2019t Just Rely on Numbers<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nNumbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight \u2014 but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they\u2019re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pick Your Spots \u2014 Don\u2019t Bet Every Prop<\/h4>\n\n\n\n Prop markets are sharp. Don\u2019t try to force a bet on every fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nTarget exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.<\/li>\n\n\n\n Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nFocus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Track Results and Adjust<\/h4>\n\n\n\n The best prop bettors don\u2019t just bet \u2014 they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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